Interesting apples and oranges a.k.a. the Dutch Fintech Awards

|18-4-2017 | Pieter de Kiewit

One of my friends who works in human capital development and is a psychologist, explained me once how we can increase our creative output. One of the elements he mentioned was mixing up the way information comes to you and how you digest it. For example, if you are used to create business plans  sitting behind your desk and writing, a multi-person brainstorm session might tap into your undiscovered creative potential. And the other way around: if you are talker/listener, try writing for a change.

Bearing this in mind, I always try to combine personal meetings, with calls, with reading, events and so on. For the people who know me: I am always behind on my reading. So much to read, so little time! Events and personal meetings get my creative juices flowing. Today I trained MBA students of RSM in their labour market approach, very inspiring. And I look forward to the Dutch Fintech Awards that are organized shortly.

Dutch FinTech Awards

Being a recruiter with a focus on corporate treasury, I have tried to find the Fintech Awards contenders with a relevance for the corporate treasury community. This is not as obvious as it seems, only a few are. I do not envy the jury of this event. Categorizing the contenders is almost impossible, let alone judging them. Comparing blokchain insurance with video financial services sales and a crowdfunding platform with easy on-line payments, is comparing apples with oranges. One thing is clear: some of the potential award winners are very good at attracting social media attention.

Despite their diversity, each of the companies tells a different inspiring story. Some of them are about cutting edge technology, some of them are about understanding potential clients, others are about smart entrepreneurship. One thing I am sure of is that the level of creativity of the entrepreneurs will be extremely high. I am ready to be inspired and will inform you in my review blog afterwards.

On 21 April the Dutch FinTech Awards will take place in Utrecht. A day with many international keynote speakers, provoking master classes and pitches by the Dutch FinTech 50. Make sure you register today and join this unique opportunity to meet 300 International FinTech stakeholders. Via treasuryXL you can get a discount on the regular ticket. More information

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

Dutch FinTech Awards (21 April): discount via treasuryXL

| 12-4-2017 | treasuryXL |

On 21 April the Dutch FinTech Awards will take place in Utrecht. A day with many international keynote speakers, provoking master classes and pitches by the Dutch FinTech 50. Make sure you register today and join this unique opportunity to meet 300 International FinTech stakeholders. Via treasuryXL you can get a discount on the regular ticket. Read the article for more information about the event and to discover the discount code.

​Dutch FinTech Awards & Conference

You are more than welcome to join the Dutch FinTech Awards and Conference of 2017 where innovative and disruptive FinTech companies are awarded. Meet 400 hand picked entrepreneurs, bankers, investors and advisors, demonstrate thought leadership, extend your network and develop business. Join the festive award ceremony on 21 April 2017.

What is happening?

Tens of thousands of finance jobs are vanishing. Google, Apple, Facebook and countless FinTech startups are disrupting the financial sector. Innovative companies are eager to please millions of frustrated banking customers. Investors are fascinated by the phenomenal profits made by banks struggling with outdated technology.

Get your ticket with discount

We have the opportunity to give you a 150 EUR discount on a regular ticket.

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We hope to meet you at the Dutch Fintech Awards 2017 at the Rabobank HQ in Utrecht on 21 April.
If you have any questions please do not hesitate to contact me.

Annette Gillhart – Community Manager treasuryXL

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The Euro from a treasury perspective

| 10-4-2017 | Hans de Vries |

In a perfect world, one currency is the ultimate dream for every Treasurer. The introduction of the Euro has been a major leap forward in that direction. However, current anti-euro sentiments boosted by populist movements all over Europe, seriously threaten to hamper this unique and visionary European accomplishment.  This article focusses on what impact the introduction of the Euro had for the corporate treasurers and what will happen if the Euro gets skipped.

Let’s start with the beginning. One must be aware that the introduction of the Euro is the world’s largest economic policy experiment so far with heavy repercussions on the autonomy of the countries involved with regard to their monetary regimes.  So naturally this expedition has met a lot of criticism ever since the beginning, the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS) on March 13,1979.

The Euro skeptics mostly feared that the wide-spread adoption of the Euro would deteriorate the economies of countries that accepted this currency and was in favor of the larger countries, like France and Germany, that now could easily manipulate the Euro’s puppet strings. Main belief was that the Euro would weaken instead of strengthen the European economy.

 As from the start, Euro stronger than expected

Although the Euro met quite some negative public attention, looking at more than 15 years of Euro, the track record has not been that bad at all. As the graph shows, after a relatively weak position against the USD at the beginning of this century, the Euro has held a strong position against the USD as from 2003 on, although weakening after 2014 in the aftermath of the banking and economic crisis that followed it. However, the predicted downfall of the Euro never took place. Remarkable phenomenon was that when the value of the dollar was higher, it was regarded in the media as a sign of weakness of the Euro against a “strong” Dollar and when the value of the Euro was stronger than the USD it was regarded by the analysts as a sign of weakness of the Dollar.

More important is that the introduction of the Euro as per January 1, 1999 has indeed brought the predicted transparency to the European market but also to the global market. This transparency has contributed to the substantial growth (5-40% according to Bun and Klaassens) of the internal trade flows within the EU countries due to the fact that the Euro has lowered the fixed and/or variable costs of exports. Prices can be compared across the whole Eurozone, allowing companies to choose the most price-competitive suppliers. The newly exported goods are of lower unit values than those previously exported because the Euro has made exporting them profitable, particularly for small exporters. Don’t forget that with 28 member states in 2014 Europe was the strongest economic player on global level taking care of 17,1% of the World GDP whereas the USA had a share of 15,9% and Russia 3,3%.
From a more monetary viewpoint the Euro brought price stability. Inflation in the Eurozone has been around 2-2.5% for most of the time since its creation.
A strong Euro mitigated the impact of the volatility of dollar-denominated commodity prices.This advantage was particularly visible before the beginning of the financial and economic crisis, when the oil price and the price of some other important food commodities reached unprecedented peaks. Due to the Strong Euro or weak USD, the consequences for the European market were relatively minor.

Euro leads to transparent treasury operations and substantial cost reductions

In today´s Euro environment, most Treasurers in Europe only have to deal with the USD, GBP and sometimes CHF and the Nordic Currencies. This makes live quite overseeable and has substantially enhanced their risk portfolio. The same applies for the Treasurers outside the Euro zone, who are now freed from the hassle of the past European currency palette.

Although a number of Euro critics pointed their finger at the Euro as direct cause for the Banking crisis a few years ago, it is almost impossible to imagine the consequences of the crisis in and outside Europe if every European country had been dealing with their own currencies. This would have resulted in a pandemonium of devaluations and revaluations with even more severe consequences for the values of all national and international operating companies and even more bank bankruptcies. Not to mention the impact this might have had on pension funds and other investment vehicles on short and longer terms.

From a corporate perspective, the benefits of the introduction of the Euro are therefore quite clear.

But also the consumers more and more are sharing the benefits of the common Euro market. Not only during travels abroad but also internet shopping becomes more and more international with new initiatives on the way to support payments like the Fast Payment project.

Looking at all these benefits, the current anti Euro sentiment in a number of European member states is from an economic point of view hard to understand and might pose a serious threat on the future European economic development.

Consequences of a Euro exit from a treasury and cash management perspective

Imagine getting back to the world without the Euro. This means an enormous rise of the operational costs considering:

  • The daily currency shifts that influence directly the position of the corporate’s accounts receivable/ and accounts payable and therefore the short time profit/loss situation. To minimize the impact substantial investment in systems and manpower will be needed;
  • The monetary developments as result of the internal economic/ political situation per country resulting in overnight currency devaluation/ revaluation and it’s inter currency reaction’s. (The recent takeover of Opel by Peugeot was merely a result of the strong decline of the GBP against the Euro which had severe consequences on the UK based Vauxhall subsidiary and shows the impact of the monetary developments on the corporate world.)
  • The banking costs involved in setting up swaps/ hedges/ Long term deposits etc.
  • The banking costs involved in buying and selling the various currencies;
  • The impact on money transfers which will be treated as international payments again with different clearing systems, correspondent banks, local payment instruments and formats etc. resulting in delayed payments and receipts and therefore threatening the growth of the economies.
  • The impact on international trade that will strongly diminish due to the lack of transparency of the international markets, the rise of costs and the loss of trust.
  • Re-opening of local accounts to support local business

Banking industry as sole winner

The only party that will benefit from this skip of the Euro development is the banking industry, because of the margin to be made on currency exchange, swaps and other derivates, and the backshift to a Non-Sepa/ international payments environment with substantial higher transaction costs. Looking at the public opinion on banks in general ever since the bank crisis, it’s hard to believe that the populist movements in Europe are in favour of this development.

Take the loss or start a counter movement?

This leaves us with the question, what benefits are there to gain by consumers and businesses alike by leaving Europe and the Euro? Looking at the economic development of the Euro countries today and all the benefits the Euro has brought the corporates and consumers,  there is no clue why we should not stick to the current status quo and enhance it in any possible way.

It is therefore high time to start advocating the true merits a United Europe has been gaining thanks to the pan European ideals: a unprecedented war free community already lasting for more than seventy years combined with an enormous economic and cultural development.

Hans de Vries

Treasury/ Cash Management Consultant

Blockchain: Securities market infrastructure players in the contra-attack

| 7-4-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

 

Blockchain technology has long been viewed as a threat to CSDs (Central Securities Depositories) and their role as intermediaries for securities transactions. Blockchain and distributed ledger technology may make the role of many intermediaries in the post trade market infrastructure obsolete. In one of my blogs (Blockchain and the securities industry: future eco-system) I was one of those who think that players such as custodians, CCPs, CSDs and others would disappear when blockchain would be used in a massive way.


“It however is not expected that there will be a complete disintermediation of service providers. While the role of custodians would greatly disappear and those of clearinghouses and CSDs will drastically change in a blockchain environment, the rest of the value chain in the securities industry may remain largely intact. The functions associated with tracking, reconciling, and auditing enormous amounts of data are not going to be disintermediated away. They have to continue to exist, but just need to be done more efficiently, at lower cost and with fewer errors”- Carlo R.W. de Meijer

But these players are going in the contra-attack. 15 CSDs from developing and emerging markets, including Strate and NSD, have agreed to form a consortium to explore blockchain and DLT technology in a post-trading environment. The partners say that“financial market infrastructures need to embrace the technology and identify opportunities that will add value to their current clients”.

Let’s look what they are all doing.

CSDs aim to build distributed ledger for mobilising scarce collateral (January 2017)

A coalition of four central securities depositories are collaborating with Deutsche Börse on an initiative to use blockchain technology to ease cross-border mobilisation of security collateral. The members of the so-called “Liquidity Alliance” include The Canadian Depository for Securities Limited (CDS), Clearstream (Luxembourg), Strate (South Africa) and VPS (Norway). Via this initiative they want to overcome existing hurdles when moving collateral across various jurisdictions, making the transfer faster and more efficient. The Alliance’s ‘LA Ledger’ will initially be implemented as a prototype based on the Hyperledger Fabric. Validation by regulatory authorities and market participants will start in the second quarter of 2017.

DTCC taps blockchain to rebuild its platform (January 2017)

The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a US post-trade provider, has announced plans to use blockchain technology in 2017 to rebuild its platform. It aims to create a credit derivatives post-trade lifecycle solution built using a distributed ledger platform. Blockchain can simplify the process by automatically maintaining a shared electronic record of the security which is visible to all relevant parties.  This new DTCC’s platform – Trade Information Ware house – will keep track of the security throughout the lifecycle of the associated bond.

IBM, Axoni, and R3 CEV, two technology startups have been selected to work on the project which is set to kick-off in January 2017. DTCC expects the new blockchain-enabled Trade Information Warehouse to go live in early 2018. Furthermore, the project has been developed with input from market participants and infrastructure providers including Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse Group, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase, UBS Group, Wells Fargo, IHS Markit and Intercontinental Exchange, DTCC said.

SWIFT creates blockchain application to simplify cross-border payments (January 2017)

SWIFT has begun building a blockchain application to simplify cross-border payments. The global platform is integrating open-source blockchain technology with its own products to build a proof-of-concept that might “one day” replace the so-called “nostro” accounts its members keep filled with cash all over the world – just in case they need it. A successful test of distributed ledger technology (DLT) could enable banks to optimize their liquidity globally and SWIFT to reduce the costs of reconciliation between independent databases maintained by the inter-bank platform’s members, reduce operational costs and free up liquidity for other investments.

Euroclear pencils in 2017 for bullion on blockchain roll out (December 2016)

Euroclear, the securities market depository, is set for a 2017 go-live for the application of blockchain technology in the London bullion market after completing its first pilot trades. Over 600 OTC test bullion trades were settled on the Euroclear Bankchain platform over the course of a two-week pilot. A number of leading market participants in the London bullion market – all part of the Euroclear Market Advisory Group – were involved in the test run, including Scotiabank, Société Générale, Citi, MKS PAMP Group and INTL FCStone. The Euroclear Bankchain Market Advisory Group set up in June this year now includes 17 participants working with Euroclear and blockchain platform provider Paxos in the roll-out of the new service. Another market simulation will run early this year in preparation for a production launch later in 2017.

Euroclear report: “CSDs matter in blockchain settlement system” (December 2016)

A new report by Euroclear has looked at the regulatory and legal aspects of the use of blockchain technology in post-trade settlement in a European context. The report, Blockchain Settlement: Regulation, Innovation, and Application, with support from Slaughter and May, found that central securities depositories (CSDs) would play an important role in a blockchain-based settlement system. It added that as ‘custodians of the code,’ CSDs could exercise oversight of, and take responsibility for, the operation of the relevant blockchain protocol and any associated smart contracts. CSDs will continue to perform an important role as trusted, centralised FMIs, providing gatekeeping services and oversight of the relevant blockchain. While the Euroclear report states that CSDs are trusted central entities that facilitate the settlement process, it is believed that the distributed ledger technology system would be a natural evolution of this facilitation role.

SWIFT deploys PoC for bond trading based on blockchain (November 2016)

SWIFT has unveiled a proof-of-concept for managing the entire lifecycle of a bond trade based on blockchain technology. SWIFT, that has been targeted in the press as “a legacy incumbent that will be doomed by DLT”, is determined not to be left behind “in the wake of the revolution that is unfolding in the finance world” with the adoption of blockchain or Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT). SWIFT believes “it can leverage its unique set of capabilities to deliver a distinctive DLT platform offer for the community.”

At the beginning of 2016 SWIFT and Accenture released a paper investigating how blockchain technology could be used in financial services. As a technology assessment, SWIFT and Accenture identified gaps between existing DLT solutions and industry requirements.

SA Strate to launch block chain based e-proxy voting in 2017 (October 2016)

Strate, South Africa’s central securities depository (CSD), plans to launch an e-proxy voting system based on blockchain technology in 2017. The body, responsible for clearing and settling all transactions that take place on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), has partnered with Russia’s National Settlement Depository (NSD) to develop and test systems aimed at simplifying shareholder voting. Both CSDs plan to launch the e-proxy voting system in 2017, as such they are looking to partner with an international service provider whose product is around 70% to 80% complete. In South Africa, the planned e-proxy voting system will be rolled out on a client-by-client basis, with an eventual goal to have the entire market take up the system.

The decision to partner with NSD, taken at the Sibos Conference in Geneva last year, is rooted in the fact that both CSDs have conducted independent proof of concept studies and are at a similar stage in understanding and developing an appropriate voting solution. The NSD was also one of the first financial organisations in the world to announce the development of a blockchain-based prototype for e-proxy voting. Strate and NSD will share information regarding standards, regulations and DLT technologies; explore mutually beneficial ideas; and look to make savings through the sharing of technology and development costs. They are claiming that several other CSDs have expressed interest in joining them.

Innovation in CSD space session at SIBOS: “ a slow burn for CSDs” (September2016)

During the “Innovation in CSD space: What about distributed ledger technology?” session at SIBOS, some panellists argued that the technology would “hail the end of CSDs” while others said there would be no revolution, just a “natural evolution” of what exists.

The message from the CSDs was that they are “open to innovation with blockchain, but will test it out in safe places first”.   

WFE Survey “Financial market infrastructures piling into blockchain” (August 2016)

More than 84% of trading venues and clearing counterparties (CCPs) surveyed by the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) are either investigating or actively pursuing the applicability of distributed ledger technologies in financial markets.

WFE says that the poll of 24 members indicates that firms are at different stages of evolution in their DLT initiatives, with one having already deployed a DLT-based application, some at proof-of-concept, and others on the spectrum of evaluation, design, and proof-of-technology. Clearing and settlement provided the most obvious use case for respondents, but with regulatory, legal and technical risks an issue there was little consensus on a viable time frame for live production.

Strate, global CSDs to collaborate on blockchain use (August 2016)

Strate, the South African body responsible for settling transactions concluded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, met with 20 other central securities depositories (CSDs) in Switzerland in September to discuss how blockchain technology can be used across global financial markets. Aim is to form a group of CSDs to share information and knowledge. The group of CSDs would try to determine an ideal model for putting clearing settlements and the transaction of shares on to a blockchain.   And as opposed to each going and developing their own technology, the group could potentially get a vendor to develop something for all of them or develop something their selves and share it and share in the costs.

Euroclear explores use of blockchain in London gold markets (June 2016)

Euroclear is exploring the potential of using blockchain technology to create a next generation settlement service for the London gold market. The clearing is working with blockchain infrastructure firm itBit and market participants to evaluate the use of distributed ledgers to remove the risks and reduce the capital charges related to the settlement of unallocated gold. Euroclear will thereby use ItBits’ Bankchain product, a private network of trusted participants that clears, tracks and settles trades in close to real-time, opening the prospects of providing true delivery-versus-payment in the bullion market.

Rise testing post-trade blockchain tech with banks, custodians and CSDs (May 2016)

RISE Financial Technologies (RISE), a provider of distributed ledger technology for both post-trade settlement and securities safekeeping, has become the first technology firm to launch the second generation of blockchain for the post-trade sector. RISE is testing its solutions with a number of leading financial institutions including banks, custodians, and CSDs.

The core attributes of RISE’s technology are de-centralised ledger qualities and permissioned transparency, which gives access to different types of information depending on who you are. These qualities are applied to ensure any ‘single point of failure’ inherent in many technology systems is removed and guarantees data integrity. So investors have sight and control over their assets but not those of other participants; issuers have a view but no control into final beneficiaries; financial institutions (ledger operators/validators) have access to client information; and regulators have a complete view of the information in their jurisdiction in real-time but no direct control over the assets.


Carlo de Meijer 

Economist en Researcher

 

 

 

 

More articles about blockchain from Carlo de Meijer:

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How can payments improve your working capital? Part I

| 6-4-2017 | Olivier Werlingshoff |

Working Capital is the term for the operating liquidity of a company that can be used and is needed to continue the day to day business. To calculate the working capital you have to deduct the current liabilities from the current assets. By managing your account receivables, accounts payables and inventory you can fluctuate your cash position and optimize your working capital so that the cash “trapped” in the company can be lowered to a minimum while you are still able to meet your payment agreements.

The way you are making or receiving payments can have influence on the trapped cash and therefore can influence your working capital.In a few articles we will dive into the world of payments and explain the influence on working capital. In this first article we will discuss the wire transfers within the EU and cross border.

Wire Transfer

SEPA
With SEPA all payments in the EU are considered as a local payment. To minimize your banking process time with bank transfers you don’t need to open local bank accounts in the different countries in the EU anymore. If you have a customer in, let’s assume Spain and you agreed on a payment term of 30 days, you send your invoice by mail as soon as the  client signed the contract. At that moment your working capital will increase with the amount until the moment the amount is paid into your bank account.

You can mention on your invoice that payments can be done by transfer to your IBAN number in The Netherlands. The maximum processing time will be one banking business day if you send the payment instruction before the cut off time of your bank. This means that if the client is doing the payment on Friday before the cut off time, mostly 3.30 PM, the amount will be on your account on Monday. Otherwise you will receive it on Tuesday.

Risk of non-payment
With wire transfers you still have the risk of nonpayment by you customer. Within the SEPA area you can also use Direct Debits. With this type of payment you can be the one who initiates the payment and if your client accepts, your money could be on your account after the agreed payment term of 30 days. Furthermore Direct debits can’t be reversed by your client when you use the Business variant.

Cross border
If you have a client in the US, you will also send him the invoice by mail to skip the postage process. You can ask him to transfer the amount to your IBAN number. The client will probably convert the amount in his own currency and make an international transfer. With a cross border transfer you will have different costs: the outgoing transfer cost, the incoming transfer cost and also even sometimes correspondent bank costs. Besides the high costs, payments can even take a week before reaching your bank account.

What is the effect on your working capital? Because it takes a long time before you get paid, your accounts payables will increase and the “days sales outstanding” will be longer than the 30 days you agreed on.
When you have a lot of international clients in one specific country you can make a calculation whether opening a local account in the country of your clients could be profitable for you. To avoid correspondent cost you can choose a bank that has connections with your main bank.
After receiving the money on your local account there are some instruments you can use to sweep the balance to your main account in The Netherlands, those products are called pooling techniques.

In the next articles we will focus on payments by internet, credit – and debit cards but also payment on delay and trade products.

Olivier Werlingshoff - editor treasuryXL
Olivier Werlingshoff

Owner of WERFIAD

 

 

 

More articles from this author:

Managing cash across borders

How to improve cash awareness without targets

 

 

Brexit: It is the economy stupid!

| 5-4-2017 | Theo Paardekooper |

Brexit: It is the economy stupid! (quote van James Carville, adviseur van de voormalig president van de USA, Bill Clinton). Op 23 juni 2016 werd in de UK een raadgevend referendum gehouden waarin aan de bevolking werd gevraagd om steun voor het lidmaatschap van de Europese Unie. Een kleine meerderheid van 51,6% van de kiezers heeft tegen het lidmaatschap gestemd. Op donderdag 3 november 2016 heeft de Hoge Raad in de UK bepaald dat eerst het Britse parlement moest instemmen met het verzoek tot uittreding. Na parlementaire goedkeuring heeft op 29 maart de Britse regering het officiële verzoek tot uittreding uit de statengemeenschap van de Europese Unie ingediend. De vraag is wat de economische effecten zijn van deze Brexit voor de UK en de EU. Om een antwoord op deze vraag te geven, gaat dit artikel in op wat heeft geleid tot een Brexit referendum, de argumentatie van den tegenstanders en de economische effecten op korte en lange termijn.

Waarom een referendum in UK?

Op 27 mei 2015 kondigde de Britse Minister President David Cameron een “in/uit”- referendum aan tijdens de Queen’s Speech (Troonrede). Voordat het referendum werd gehouden heeft Cameron betere voorwaarden voor de UK in Brussel weten te bewerkstelligen. Met betere afspraken verwachtte hij dat het “remain” kamp, waartoe Cameron behoorde, een overwinning zou behalen. Dat het Brexit referendum zeer beladen was, manifesteerde zich een week voor de verkiezingen met de politieke moord op de Labour-politica Jo Cox, behorend tot het “remain”-kamp.

Argumenten vóór een Brexit

Independence Party (UKIP) is in 1993 opgericht met als doel om de UK de EU te laten uittreden. Hoewel in de landelijke politiek de partij geen rol van betekenis speelt, werd deze partij uiteindelijk bij de verkiezingen voor het Europees Parlement de grootste fractie van de UK. De voornaamste argumenten voor de Brexit van deze partij liggen op het gebied van soevereiniteit. Daarnaast spelen met name economische argumenten een rol. Door Brusselse regelgeving wordt de concurrentiepositie van de UK negatief beïnvloed. UK is een netto “betaler” aan de EU. In 2014 werd £8,6 mrd netto aan de begroting van de EU door de UK betaald. UKIP ziet veel meer mogelijkheden om dit bedrag in eigen land te besteden (o.a. aan zorg). Door vrij verkeer van goederen en personen wordt de Britse arbeidsmarkt “overspoeld” met goedkope buitenlandse arbeiders. Officiële data maken melding van 1,1 miljoen buitenlandse EU migranten. UKIP stelt dat de arbeidsmarktpositie van de Britse arbeider wordt ondermijnd door deze concurrenten. Tevens leggen deze arbeiders beslag op publieke faciliteiten, zonder daarvoor een bijdrage te leveren aan deze voorzieningen. Net als in andere Europese landen, vormt de immigratie een heet hangijzer. Bij dit referendum is dit het voornaamste (populistische) item. Naast arbeidsmigratie speelt hier de verdeling van asielzoekers over de EU lidstaten ook een voorname rol.

De korte termijn economische effecten van de Brexit

Effecten op de valuta markt De korte termijn effecten waren feitelijk al zichtbaar voor het referendum werd gehouden. Marktpartijen houden bij hun investeringsbeslissingen rekening met een Brexit scenario. In welke mate is bijvoorbeeld te meten in Foreign direct Investments (FDI). Door afname van de FDI daalt de economische groei en uit dien hoofde de overheidsinkomsten. Dit effect is direct waarneembaar in de wisselkoers van het Britse Pond. Na de Brexit is de koers van het Britse Pond met zo’n 12% gedaald. Op de valuta markten is een dergelijke koerswijziging zeer materieel. Door afname van de korte termijninvesteringen en desinvesteringen door beleggers, bedrijven en speculanten worden de vrijgekomen GBP verkocht en omgezet naar de eigen valuta. De forse aanbodtoename van GBP op de valutamarkt leidt tot deze forse koersdaling. Paradoxaal geeft een lagere wisselkoers een concurrentievoordeel voor bedrijven uit de UK. De goederen en diensten zijn 12% goedkoper geworden en derhalve aantrekkelijker te exporteren. Het korte termijn resultaat is dus een opleving van de Britse economie a.g.v toename van de export.

GRAFIEK: GBP valuta-koers ontwikkeling. Duidelijk is de waardestijging van EUR en USD na het referendum.

Euro/GBP en USD/GBP valuta-koers ontwikkeling over de afgelopen 12 maanden
Normaliter wordt het valuta-paar in GBP/USD aangegeven. Om de overeenkomsten tussen de koersontwikkelingen beter duidelijk te maken is gekozen voor notatie in USD/GBP

Effecten op de obligatie markt

De verwachte daling van de obligatiekoersen als gevolg van een verminderde belangstelling voor Brits schuldpapier is uitgebleven. De rente op de obligatie markt was al sterk gedaald naar 0,5% voor 10-jaars staatsschuldpapier. De Engelse Centrale Bank heeft na het Brexit referendum haar tarieven laten dalen naar een historisch laag niveau van 0,25% en tevens heeft ze steunaankopen op de obligatie markt verricht. Dit heeft een stabiliserend effect op obligatiekoersen. Door de korte termijn verbetering van de export als gevolg van lagere koers van de Britse Pond wordt een verbetering van de economische groei verwacht in 2017 van 0,8% naar 1,4% . Verdere steunmaatregelen blijven derhalve vooralsnog uit. Per factor kan de impact van de Brexit als volgt worden beoordeeld: Door het ontstaan van handelsbarrières bij uittreding uit de EU kan de exportpositie van de UK worden aangetast. De UK kan bilaterale overeenkomsten aangaan met haar handelspartners, maar daarbij zal ze een veel minder grote machtsfactor kunnen spelen in de onderhandelingen. Immers, de grote economische machtsblokken (EU, China, USA) kennen een veel lagere urgentie om tot een akkoord te komen. Hierdoor is de Britse economie veel vatbaarder voor protectionistische maatregelen, zowel op het gebied van direct importheffingen als van non-tarief matige maatregelen. Na een eerste opleving als gevolg van de waardedaling van het Britse Pond zal naar verwachting een verlaging van de export/import quote tot een afname van de economische groei leiden.

Overheidsuitgaven

De Britse overheid is een netto betaler aan de EU. (£8,6 mrd). Bij een overheidstekort van ca £89 mrd en een totaal GDP van £1870 mrd zal de aanwending van deze middelen maar een bescheiden positieve bijdrage kunnen leveren aan de economische groei. Afhankelijk van het uiteindelijke Brexit scenario zal een deel van deze besparing weer ingezet moeten worden ter compensatie voor enige toegang tot de Europese markt. Tevens zal door de Brexit de overheid worden geconfronteerd met fiscale stimulatie om bijvoorbeeld het investeringsklimaat voor buitenlandse partijen aantrekkelijk te maken. Door het wegvallen van de toegang tot de interne markt van de EU zullen veel bedrijven hun investeringen in de UK heroverwegen. Bijvoorbeeld voor het behoud van de auto industrie, een belangrijk sector in de Britse economie, heeft de overheid al stimulerende maatregelen afgekondigd.

Investeringen

De investeringen betreffen zowel de investeringen om de groei te faciliteren als investeringen van buitenlandse partijen (Foreign Direct Investments, FDI) in de UK. Als de groei afneemt of als er zelfs sprake is van economische krimp, dan zal dit leiden tot een sterke verlaging van de investeringen. De FDI zullen, gevoed door onzekerheid en door beperking van toetreding tot de Europese markt via de UK, naar verwachting verlaagd worden.

 Consumptie

Gestimuleerd door een lage rente die door de Centrale Bank wordt gefaciliteerd door monetaire maatregelen zullen de consumptieve uitgaven in aanvang nog op peil blijven. Echter, als de export en de FDI zullen afnemen, dan zal dit uiteindelijk impact hebben op het beschikbare inkomen per capita met als resultaat een afname van de consumptie.

De lange termijn economische effecten van de Brexit

De UK staat op plaats 7 van de Global Competitiveness Index. De arbeidsmarkt is na de USA en Canada een van de meest flexibele ter wereld. De beoogde afname van de immigratie zou op termijn een negatief effect kunnen hebben op de populatie en dan met name in de leeftijdsopbouw van de Britse populatie. Net als de andere Europese landen vergrijst de bevolking van de UK. Om de beschikbaarheid van arbeidskrachten te waarborgen en om de zorg en sociale voorzieningen op peil te houden, is een evenwichtiger demografische beeld met een lager vergrijzingspercentage van belang. Er leven vooral veel oudere Britten als pensionado’s in de EU. De vraag is of deze groep na de Brexit zal moeten terugkeren naar de UK. Dit zal extra druk op de voorzieningen geven en leiden tot extra kosten voor het in stand houden van het nu nog gratis stelsel van gezondheidszorg in de UK.

Scenario’s voor uittreding

Als het uittredingsverzoek door de UK zal worden ingediend, dan staan zowel de UK als de EU voor een belangrijk besluit. Hoe wordt de onderlinge (handels) relatie tussen beide partijen in de toekomst vormgegeven?

Er zijn 5 scenario’s denkbaar:

  • Geen handelsverdrag met de EU
    Handel zal geschieden volgens de WTO-regeling als “Most Favoured Nation” (FMN). UK zal hetzelfde behandeld worden als ieder ander land met deze status. Er is een gelijk “level playing field” en geen concurrentie nadeel met betrekking tot de handel met de EU. Ieder MFN lid moet dezelfde markttoegang bieden aan de andere MFN leden.
  • Ondertekening van het EFTA verdrag, net als Noorwegen, IJsland en Liechtenstein.
    Met ondertekening van dit verdrag blijft UK lid van de EEA (European Economic Area) en blijft vrij verkeer van goederen en personen gehandhaafd. De UK zal hier wel een vergoeding voor moeten betalen aan de EU. Tevens moet worden voldaan aan alle wetten een regelgeving die door Brussel wordt opgelegd.
  • Ondertekening van het EFTA-verdrag zonder lidmaatschap van de EEA, net als Zwitserland. Zwitserland heeft toegang tot de interne markt, zonder dat er vrij verkeer is van personen. De bank- en dienstverlenende sector heeft geen vrije toegang tot de EU. Wel is sprake van een financiële bijdrage door Zwitserland aan de EU.
  • Een bilateraal handelsverdrag, zoals het CETA verdrag met Canada. Hierbij wordt meer in detail vastgelegd welke goederen en diensten vrij verhandelbaar zijn en hoe wordt omgegaan met regelgeving die import/export belemmerend kan werken.
  • Ondertekening van een douane-unie verdrag, zoals de EU heeft met Turkije.
    Er is sprake van vrije handel van industriële goederen, maar geen vrije handel van agrarische producten of diensten. Er zijn geen afspraken over non-tarifaire maatregelen als grenscontroles, productstandaarden en veiligheidseisen.

Impact voor de EU

De Europese economie zal ook enig nadeel ondervinden van de Brexit. Met name het signaal dat is afgegeven als gevolg van het Brexit referendum heeft impact op het vertrouwen in de duurzaamheid van het huidige Europese model. Europese leiders zullen gefocust blijven op het behoud van het Europese model en hierdoor zal mogelijk de polarisatie tussen de pro- Europeanen en de nationalistische partijen in Europa toenemen. De EU zal geconfronteerd gaan worden met individuele eisen van landen, onder het dreigement van het houden van een vergelijkbaar exit- referendum.
Als de Brexit een positieve effect zal hebben op de economie of op deelsectoren van de UK a.g.v. deregulering of belastingverlaging, dan zal de roep om dergelijke maatregelen ook te horen zijn in Europa. Zo kan uittreding van de Britten uit de EU de start worden van een verder uiteenvallen van de Europese Unie als economisch en politiek blok.

Conclusie

De Europese Unie en haar voorgangers zijn ooit opgericht om een einde te maken aan de al eeuwen durende gewapende rivaliteit tussen de Europese naties. Door de economische barrières te verwijderen is uiteindelijk een grote vrijhandelszone ontstaan met grote aantrekkingskracht op landen aan de grens van de EU.
De impact op de economie na de Brexit zal sterk bepaald worden door het uittredingsscenario. De verwachting is dat hoe “harder” de Brexit, hoe groter de daling van de GDP. Effecten aan de vraagzijde van de economie, t.w. Import/Export, Investeringen en Consumptie zullen hard geraakt worden. Sterke overheidsstimulering in combinatie met een sterk nationaal zelfbewustzijn zal nodig moeten zijn om de UK in staat te stellen om een hard scenario om te zetten in positieve economische effecten. Daar UK een veel kleinere markt is dan de EU, met een beperkte negatieve handelsbalans, maar waar 2/3 deel van de economie betrekking heeft op import of export, zal de uittreding uit de Europese markt de economie flink gaan raken; het effect op de UK zal groter zijn dan op de EU. De Brexit is een feit, maar ook in exit strategieën bestaan veel varianten.

 

Theo Paardekoper 

Independent treasury specialist

 

 

 

Eerdere artikelen over de Brexit op treasuryXL:

Brexit: Winnaars en verliezers

Brexit en GBP: Een historische dag

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dutch FinTech Awards on April 21 – extra discount via treasuryXL

| 4-4-2017 | treasuryXL |

Witness the future of finance at the Dutch FinTech Awards in Utrecht on 21 April. Make sure you register today and join this unique opportunity to meet 300 International FinTech stakeholders. Via treasuryXL you can get this week an extra discount on the Early Bird ticket. Read the article for more information about the event and to discover the discount code.

 

WHAT DOES THE FINTECH AWARDS HAS TO OFFER YOU?

– 3,5 hours of quality networking time
– 300 stakeholders eager to network and explore opportunities
– Decision makers from 200 different companies
– 18 pitches of the best FinTechs
– 3 pitches of the most innovative Incumbent companies

WITNESS THE FUTURE OF FINANCE ON 21 APRIL

Visit the Dutch FinTech Awards and Conference where innovative and disruptive FinTech companies are awarded. Meet 300 innovation heads, entrepreneurs, investors, bankers and advisors, extend your network and develop business. Stay ahead of the game and witness the future of finance.

VISITING THE FINTECH AWARDS IS A ‘NO BRAINER’

5 reasons you should visit the Dutch FinTech Awards:

  1. Unique opportunity to meet the entire FinTech scene in one day. An inspiring day full of learning moments, business development, networking with 300 entrepreneurs, bankers, investors and advisors. This is the best day of the year.
  2. Meet in one day the hottest Dutch FinTechs as well as amazing international disruptors: N26 (Number26), Meniga, Behaviosec, Adyen, Davinci, Backbase, FiveDegrees, Dopay and many more. These companies make thousands of jobs in the financial sector obsolete.
  3. Thought-provoking keynote session of Europe’s biggest and fastgrowing FinTech bank: N26 (Number26): Why is N26 growing like crazy? Why are many banks afraid?
  4. Discover what keeps heads of Digitalisation and Innovation of the most important financial institutions awake. Meet Bart Leurs (Rabobank), Jonathan Webster (Lloyds Banking Group), David Dab (ING) and Menno van Leeuwen (Moneyou) and more.
  5. Meet the largest international FinTech investors with combined funds of over a staggering 1 billion. Meet Eggert Claessen (Frumtak Ventures – Iceland), Richard Brown (Santander – UK), Jurgen Ingels (SmartFin – Belgium), Josh Bell (Dawn Capital – UK), Johan Lundberg (NFT Ventures – Sweden), Iason Nikolakis (Anthemis – UK) and many more.

Early Bird tickets with an extra discount via treasuryXL

We have the opportunity to give you 50 EUR extra discount on an Early Bird ticket. Get your tickets now because the extra discount is only valid until the end of this week.

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We hope to meet you at the Dutch Fintech Awards 2017 at the Rabobank HQ in Utrecht on April 21.

 

MANAGING MARKET PRICE RISKS OUTSIDE OF PURCHASE CONTRACTS

|4-4-2017 | Sjoerd Schneider |

 

As commodity prices have become more volatile over the past decade, many procurement departments have been feeling the need to somehow manage market price risks. The most frequently used strategy to mitigate commodity price risks by such departments is using physical purchase contracts: fixing prices over a long term horizon. However, there are more subtle and dynamic ways to manage price risks, which can lead to significant savings and tactical advantages. These can be achieved when dedicated market price specialists get involved.

Market price risks

Product specialists and buyers are well aware of all specifics concerning their products but are often not skilled in managing market price risks. Nevertheless it often happens that they are the ones in charge of mitigating market price risks in the form of negotiating the pricing paragraphs within purchase contracts.

There are several reasons why having buyers in charge of mitigating price risks merely through purchase contracts is not optimal:

  1. Buyers often don’t have the expertise to assess whether the premium charged for fixing prices is decent
  2. Buyers don’t have the right overview of company-wide commodity risks. When one buyer micro manages his exposures within purchase contracts that does not mean overall risks are managed optimally
  3. The counterparty in a physical deal might know that the buyer doesn’t have other means of fixing prices. This leads to a weakened negotiating position regarding the overall contract.

Mitigate FX risk

To draw the parallel to a traditional treasury issue: when a European company is a buyer of American machinery and services, would it be the buyer fixing the USD rate with the suppliers’ sales team for just that deal? That would not be the optimal strategy to mitigate FX risk. Hence the same counts for commodity price risks. Hedging through the supplier (let alone by the buyer) should never be the only available option. Literally having more options on the table to mitigate price risks than just asking suppliers for long term fixed prices gives substantial benefits:

  • Flexibility:
    • being able to hedge at any moment, without having to request or consult the supplier
    • after a price decrease it might be interesting to fix prices for a much longer term than purchase contracts usually stretch
  • Savings:
    • not paying too much premium to the supplier for executing hedges or for taking over price risks
    • having a larger pool of potential suppliers as there is no longer a requirement for them to sell at fixed prices

Conclusion

Companies of any size should investigate how large their potential savings could be and how much the increased flexibility will help them. The advantages should outweigh the time and manpower that need to be invested.

Sjoerd Schneider

Founder of Insposure

 

 

 

 

More articles from this author:

Commodity price risks deserve a spot within treasury management

 

Treasurers to be the strategic super-heroes for their CFO

|3-4-2017 | GTNews | Lionel Pavey | Udo Rademakers |

Treasurers to be the super-hero for their CFO? We found this article headline on GTNews.com so intriguing that we asked our experts Lionel Pavey and Udo Rademakers to comment on it. According to the article the role of the treasurer has to be re-evaluated due to the fact that deal-making (figures of mergers and acquisitions have increased) is high on the global agenda. Traditionally treasurers focussed on informing the C-Suite and the board and integrated systems and processes after decisions about a deal were made.  Treasurers started to address this issue, which led to a new role of the treasurer, in fact a much more strategic role. The treasurer was no longer a risk manager, but also a ‘business change enabler ‘.  GTNews states: ‘The treasurer who opens this door is truly aligning themselves to the needs of the chief financial officer (CFO).They’ll be a superhero.’

Expert Lionel Pavey added some valuable information on the 4 different stages of a M&A proces.

Targeting

  1. Examine the different methods of payment – cash, debt, equity
  2. Discretely ascertain interest rate levels if using debt
  3. What are the effects of additional debt on the existing bank covenants and financial ratios
  4. Complete takeover or just buying a business unit or division?

Negotiating

  1. Examine the cashflow forecast of the target
  2. Examine any documentation on outstanding loans
  3. Existing pledges – Letter of Credit, Bank Guarantees, financial contracts, contingent liabilities
  4. Outstanding debtors, creditors, taxes etc.

Closing

  1. Detailing the bank accounts
  2. Either merging the bank accounts or creating new accounts at the time of closing
  3. Agreeing all bank balances and outstanding claims
  4. Receiving detailed cashflow forecast for the first 2-3 months after closing date
  5. Combining the new cashflows with the existing forecasts
  6. Arrange any agreed financing

Integration

  1. Close all existing facilities and services that will be no longer used
  2. Ensure the new data is present in the book keeping system
  3. All counterparties are informed of new bank accounts
  4. All authorized personnel have access to new banking systems

Expert Udo Rademakers states:
The posting at gtnews.com  points out where treasurers could add value in M&A activities. Unfortunately, in too many cases, treasurers had been brought into M&A transactions rather late: at a stage where the acquisition already had been concluded and where the treasurer only gets involved in “getting the deal done”.

As pointed out in the article, this is often a missed chance for the company and also for the treasurer of not adding more strategic value. Apart from that, the sooner the treasurer gets on board, the better the company can prepare for this kind of rather complicated transactions. It enabled the treasurer as well to act on a tactical level in order to support the M&A transaction in a cost efficient and well documented way.

What strategic value could the Treasurer bring?

  1. value the target company or the combined entity as a whole based on CF projection models
  2. evaluate the capital mix (cash, debt, equity)
  3. evaluate borrowing capacity/credit lines (low risk, best price)
  4. evaluate the country risk
  5. creating the funding flow overview and analyze this (timing of transactions)
  6. evaluate credit- and forex risk (natural hedging possibilities, consider to pay as much as possible from     “restricted countries” in order to decrease your restrained cash)

If the treasurer has been on board for the strategic part, he is well informed and able to manage the tactical part systematical as soon as the effectuation of the transaction takes place.

The treasurer needs to arrange (if applicable):

  1. temporary limit increase with banks
  2. forex transactions (increase of in- and external limits if needed)
  3. time critical payments to agencies, funding parties, seller, capital injections etc. : validate account information, prepare correct timing of the flow (cut off times, correct payment details and descriptions, etc.)
  4. documenting of all transaction in a systematic way and liaise with all in- and external parties involved.

Especially in high demanding environments where one transaction takes place after the other, mistakes will be made and processes might not be well documented. Obviously this could lead to higher risk and additional costs and lots of additional (correcting) work afterwards. Having a well prepared, skilled treasurer on board could avoid this.

Hence the comparison with a superhero…

Conclusion

Involve the treasurer from the first step
Draw up a detailed project plan for M&A and ensure that it is signed off by Board of Directors
Implement project plan for every M&A
Identify all costs linked to M&A
Highlight any cost savings and/or efficiencies

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

 

 

Udo Rademakers

Independent Treasury Consultant & Interim Manager