Derivatendossier sleept zich voort

| 09-10-2017 | Simon Knappstein |

Eind deze maand stuurt de AFM weer een voortgangsrapportage inzake de uitvoering van het Uniform Herstelkader Rentederivaten naar de Tweede Kamer. Volgens berichtgeving vorige week in het FD zal daar in staan dat de banken vrijwel geen voortgang geboekt hebben. Het blijkt dat “van de bijna 20.000 gedupeerde MKB’ers er slechts een handjevol een schadevergoeding heeft gekregen en pas enkele tientallen een voorstel voor schadevergoeding[1]”

Bij de publicatie van het Herstelkader in december vorig jaar werd er door de minister nog van uitgegaan dat de compensatieregeling per 1 juli jl. voor alle klanten zou zijn afgerond. De kans dat de banken daar überhaupt voor het einde van dit jaar nog in slagen lijkt ondertussen zeer klein.
Belangrijkste redenen die genoemd worden voor deze vertraging zijn, ondanks alle goede bedoelingen en hard werken, 1) dat toepassing van het Herstelkader zeer complex blijkt te zijn, en 2) dat banken, externe dossierbeoordelaars en de AFM elkaar nu, om maar geen fouten te maken, ‘gevangen’ houden.
Door de goedbedoelde pogingen om het kader, de uitvoering ervan en de controle er op helemaal dicht te timmeren is er een ‘over-engineering’ ontstaan die verlammend werkt op de voortgang. Terwijl als er een zekere variatie en onzekerheid in de uitkomst per dossier voor lief zou worden genomen dan zouden 150 man met gemiddeld 10 uur per dossier die 20.000 dossiers in 8 maanden hebben weggewerkt. Mijn ervaring is dat, hoewel toepassen van het herstelkader inderdaad complex is en ook  de documentatie niet altijd direct compleet aanwezig is, het bepalen van de schadevergoeding toch heel goed te doen is.  Helaas is er nu driekwart jaar voorbij en lijkt het proces geheel vastgelopen te zijn.

Die over-engineering is iets wat ook door Patrick van Gerwen, die met zijn bedrijf Cadension ondernemers bijstaat in de relatie met hun bank, is vastgesteld. Hij pleit ervoor dat de minister van Financiën weer ingrijpt, en wel snel, om dit dossier vlot te trekken. Want de klanten wachten al sinds 2012 op de oplossing van dit probleem.
Als de voortgangsrapportage van de AFM eind deze maand naar de Tweede Kamer gaat zal er wellicht net een kabinetswisseling hebben plaatsgevonden. De nieuwe minister van Financiën kan dan direct aan de slag met dit dossier.

[1] Uit ‘Schadeherstel in derivatendossier loopt zoveelste vertraging op’ door Wouter Keuning in FD van 2 oktober jl.

Simon Knappstein - editor treasuryXL

 

 

Simon Knappstein

Owner of FX Prospect

 

 

Lees ook: Uniform herstelkader rentederivaten mkb

TIS & FX Treasury Webinar: Corporate Payments Optimization

| 06-10-2017 | TIS | 2FX Treasury | Sponsored content |

TIS and 2FX Treasury organize a webinar that we would like to bring to your attention. On October 19th between 04:00 and 04:45 PM TIS and 2FX Treasury will host: Corporate Payments Optimization: How to reduce complexity in your business. An interesting session for treasury professionals. 

Complexity is not your friend. Whether in your finance, treasury, shared services or IT departments, improved processes help to reduce risk.
How do the most efficient and effective businesses in today’s world manage a multi-region, multi-bank, and multi-ERP environment? How have leading finance, treasury, and IT professionals gained visibility across their corporate payments landscape?

Join the optimization discussion in this webinar where we discuss business cases based on:
  • Current challenges
  • Standardization and automation of corporate payments through pre-built bank connectors and formats
  • Reduced operational and financial risk due to increased transparency and straight through processing (STP)
  • Enhanced security and compliance

Flex Treasurer: Who needs a treasurer?

| 05-10-2017 | Olivier Werlingshoff |

 

Do all international companies need a Treasurer or a Cash Manager? Yes and No would be my answer. In this article I will give my opinion on the reasons (not) to hire a Treasurer or Cash Manager.

First we have to focus on the definition of a Treasurer. Wikipedia: “he or she is responsible for liquidity risk management, cash management, issuing debt, foreign exchange and interest rate risk hedging, securitization, oversight of pension investment management, and capital structure (including share issuance and repurchase).”

 

Activities are Cash Management, Risk Management. Corporate Finance and Treasury operations & control. In a lot of companies all these activities and processes are part of the job of a controller and a finance manager.

When the company has financial problems the cash management activities, especially the cash flow forecast and the (inter)national banking environment, will come into the spotlight. A reliable cash flow forecast is built up on the right information about the cash position and the planning for the period to come. The problem is how accurate are the predictions for the future in the ERP systems? The right information can be obtained by asking not colleagues of the finance department but the sales colleague and procurement. This can be a time-consuming exercise.

There are a few new fintech companies who focus on the optimization of cash management processes. It is possible to manage all your bank accounts with one single system, where different ERP and company systems can be connected to each other which make it easier to set up a cash flow forecast. The search for the right information can be facilitated.

If you focus on the corporate finance activities such as an IPO or a refinancing, specific and knowledge is needed. This does not happen often.

My suggestion is to hire a Flex Treasurer and let him make a scan of all the treasury processes in the company. The Flex Treasurer can also implement improvements on the cash management and risk management activities. When all improvements are done see if the activities can be integrated in the existing jobs or you could hire a cash manager.

If a company decides to do an IPO or a refinancing there are plenty of companies specialized in this field. Therefore it would be smarter to use an interim consultant till the job is done.

Olivier Werlingshoff - editor treasuryXL

 

Olivier Werlingshoff

Owner of Werfiad

Indian Rupee remains very vulnerable

| 04-10-2017 | Rob Beemster |

The Indian rupee has suffered in September severely. In our report we name the issues resulting to the weakening. International companies in India and those trading with India face severe danger from these currency moves. This article will give you an insight how to handle this.

What has changed India in recent months?

It seems latest macro-economic data in India have changed the outlook on its currency. The country is well-beloved due to its place under the economic and international sidelines. Apart from drastic measures taken by the government on monetary and fiscal front, the country is usually not on the forefront of economic papers like other BRICS partners.

What has caused the different outlook on the rupee?    

A, a rise in CPI inflation ( to 2.4% for July from 1.5% in June )

B, a meagre April-June, 2017 GDP report showing a three year low in growth of 5.7% YoY ( 6.1% in the previous quarter ) This is the fourth consecutive quarter with slowing growth

C, signals of a fiscal deficit above the 3.2% GDP target in the running fiscal year

D, almost a year after demonetisation, M3 and bank lending growth remain well below pre-demonetisation levels, a sign of tight liquidity conditions are hurting businesses

Investors and other members of the financial communities dislike a combination of factors A and B. This has resulted in the fall of INR against euro and dollar in September. Although INR is still one of the most popular Emerging Market currencies, a continuation of disappointing economic data might change this international feeling towards INR.  According to RBI data, the recent depreciation is in partly due to equity and bond portfolio outflows.

What to do?

Be aware of a volatile INR. The currency has lost some of its popularity, due to the facts named above. Future is always insecure, take North Korea vs. Trump, how will Brexit change Europe etc. These issues will most certainly have an impact on the dollar and Euro, so may affect the INR as well.

An international trading company, during these unsteady times, should take care of international currency flows. From Sept 8 till Sept 27, INR lost 3 % against the USD. This could be a big stake of the profit margin!

We can help you designing the right structure, whereby a strategy will protect you from harmful currency moves. A lower INR can slam your profit, we help you avoiding this. We know the Indian market. Call us on +31228528579 or mail us via [email protected] and we will help you to solve your currency risk.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

 

Regulation of ICOs: the end or beginning of a healthy market?

| 29-9-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

One of the hottest – and also one of the most controversial – things in the crypto currency environment are so-called Initial Coin Offerings or ICOs. ICOs, which employ the use of crypto currencies, have become a popular means of fundraising for start-ups in recent months. The increasing need of blockchain technology and the lack of regulation allows them to raise money quickly in return to so-called tokens (also described as digital certificates). This hype has driven a steep rise in this sector’s market value, reaching a high of $177 bn.

The latest cryptocurrency boom however is beginning to stall as a growing number of regulators worldwide turn their attention to the ICOs world and have decided to come into action. China recently decided even to ban these ICOs. And others such as the US SEC, Singapore, Hong Kong, Russia and others followed soon though in a more lighter variant.

Is this the end of fundraising via ICOs or should it be seen as the beginning of a healthy market?

ICO hype

ICOs have become highly popular. In the past months there has been a complete hype around ICOs. ICOs have allowed digital currency start-ups, to raise millions of dollars quickly, in many cases from ordinary investors. The ICO fever is especially triggered by the success of Ethereum, the platform that invented the digital currency Ether. Already in 2014 Ethereum arranged a very successful ICO.

More than $1,6 billion has been raised worldwide from these ICOs up till now. China for example has seen 65 ICOs and 2.62 billion yuan ($400 million) raised from more than 100.000 individuals so far in 2017.

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

Hot topics in corporate treasury, the survey results

| 28-09-2017 | treasuryXL |

Last month we organized a small survey, one question, to find out which treasury topics are highest on the to-do the list in corporate treasury. In cooperation with Treasurer Search we reached out to our network. Due to the set-up of the survey I want to describe the results in two separate lists. We asked one question: “make a list with a maximum of five topics”. As this was a free text survey, there was a variety of answers. In total, we had to digest a list of roughly 125 topics mentioned. I want to emphasize that the scientific methodology for this survey would not have been approved by my graduation professor.

The first list is based upon key words only, with a very narrow read on topics:

  1. IFRS and other regulatory affairs;
  2. Risk management (policies and procedures);
  3. FX;
  4. TMS;
  5. Bank relations;
  6. 3rd party risk;
  7. Development of USD and GBP, based upon political developments;
  8. Cash flow forecasting.

Bear in mind that topic 1 has been mentioned 11 times, topic 8 is mentioned 5 times. This list gives you an indication but compares strategic with operational. And both FX as well as the USD & GBP topic in one list feels suboptimal.

After some internal discussion, we decided upon a different approach. Based upon what we encounter in corporate treasury every day, we decided to cluster topics on the same abstraction level and came upon the following list, in order of how often topics were mentioned:

  1. Markets & Risk, including political developments and their impact on both FX and IR (34 times);
  2. Liquidity management and cash flow forecasting, including relevant cash management topics (21);
  3. TMS, banking systems and fintech relevant for corporate treasury (18);
  4. Bank relationship management, including banking costs, risk and bank regulations (14);
  5. Regulatory affairs (IFRS) (11);
  6. Corporate finance and funding specifically (10);
  7. 3rd Party risk (6);

Here the difference between the difference between topic 1 and topic 7 is almost a factor 6. This list, in my opinion, paints a clearer picture. I am a bit surprised how prominent topic 1 is, how low funding is on the list and about 3rd party risk being on the list.

We will use the list to gather extra content and the students of the Hogeschool Utrecht will write blogs, using this list as input.

We look forward to your response on the results of this survey. See also https://www.treasuryxl.com/treasuryxl/hu-treasury-papers-digging-into-the-treasury-hot-topics/

 

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Lessons to learn: a higher euro threatens corporate Europe; how to handle this

| 26-9-2017 | Rob Beemster |

Do you run a business in Europe and the world is your market? Then you must face jitters due to the currency developments in the US and UK. The huge impact of Brexit on the sterling has seen a devaluation of around 30% against the Euro. The US dollar has weakened some 15% compared to early 2017.

These currency moves will be welcomed when you are importing from the US and/or UK. However, when you are exporter, than you don’t feel jitters but the pain will seriously hurt you. Many exporters see their UK/US  market share diminish, or maybe even disappear.  Normally, when a currency of an export market drifts down ( so the own currency gets more expensive ) we see price adjustments of the exporter.

First he will decrease his own margins, then he seeks price adjustments of his suppliers. After that , the whole chain will be analysed to look for improvements and cutbacks.

The Chinese have a saying that every crisis offers new chances. What chances would a weaker sterling and weaker dollar offer European exporters?

A, analysing the whole value chain, may offer new insights whereby you can create higher and/or cheaper production Most probably, these insights can give opportunities to improve your sales to other markets as well. Improving  your chain, constantly, is a very wise technique to stay ahead of your competition.  Before the introduction of the Euro, Germany worked on  this strategy for years. Bundesbank was a strong supporter of a firm German mark, so German exporters had to be aggressive and innovative to keep their business alive.

B, doing business outside the Euro territory brings currency risk. This is a component of your business you have to face. However, currency risk on new and running orders can be hedged. By doing so, you will protect your cash flow ( read profit ).  When profit margins are low, it is extremely important to have a good currency strategy. But even when margins are fairly high, a long currency move may take off your market share. Sterling has gone down for almost 2 years now. So a “safe market” should be hedged with a currency strategy too. A lucrative market may drift away by an ignorant behaviour of exporters.

Barcelona valuta experts can help you installing a decent currency strategy. We do not look for the cheapest way of doing your transactions but we look to your whole currency process. In the graph, below, you will notice that currency risk is present during the whole process. We can help you from the first step:  the offer to prospects till last payments are done.

We have a very interesting proposition for you, a free currency scan. After answering six easy questions, we can judge your currency overall / risk position. We will discuss the result with you, all without any obligation. Are you interested?  Call us on +31228528579 or mail to [email protected] and we will pass you the questionnaire.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

 

 

Does your treasury have a digital mindset?

| 25-9-2017 | Patrick Kunz |

 

In an previous article I have talked about the IT changes that make life easier for a treasurer in the future (or now already). In this article I want to talk about the digital mindset of the person using the IT – the treasurer. Treasury is a numbers game. We treasurers use these numbers to optimise the cash or risk of the company. We make money with money. These numbers have to come from somewhere in the organisation and it is usually never treasury itself.

BIG data

Big data is a hot topic in treasury but for treasury it was around longer. The treasurer needs to get their input information for all over the company. Cash inflow from sales, cash outflow from procurement and investment teams, HR etc. All this data needs to be gathered. The digital minded treasurer thinks about optimal ways of gathering this data: automatically. The treasurer starts its day with the actual cash balances and then looks forward. He/She basically needs to predict the future. How great would it be if all this data would be available with the push on a button. An ideal world ? Maybe, but it is possible. Bank statements can be automated to be loaded collectively or in a Treasury Management System. The treasurer starts the day with up to date cash balances, and he has not started working yet as this was automated. He then updates the cash forecast. How? By pushing update in his cash forecasting system. Sounds too easy? True, it took weeks to find out where to find the needed input information and to automate getting this data grouped together and in a structured way. But a digital minded treasurer knows that the data is somewhere in the organisation; it only needs to found and linked to the treasurers information recourses so it is always available. The treasurer only has to check the validity and the quality of the data and see if it needs improvement. In this way the digital minded treasurer can automatically create a cash forecast and continually improve it. A cash forecast should be ready before the second morning coffee. In an ideal world it would be ready with a push on a button. Artificial intelligence makes it possible. The digital minded treasurer is steering it.

Process improvements

The digital treasurer looks at ways to improve its document flows and payments. Not only looking at costs but also looking at how many (manual) interventions are needed. FX deals can be setup to straight through processed (STP) while blockchain would make it possible to improve the speed of payments or document flows globally. Everything is connected, as payments go from a process to straight through and instant it has an immedicate effect on the cash availability and forecasting. While now the bank is the place to go for bank accounts and payments this might not be the case in 10 years. The digital treasury might be able to setup his own bank in the future. By using technology.

The future

The treasurer makes sure that he is on the steering wheel while technology makes it possible for him/her to check his surroundings so he does not crash. A bigger front window makes for a better view forward (forecasting), a higher max speed makes for quicker travel (updating changes in forecasting), adaptive cruise control saves effort on speeds control (automatic updating and AI, STP). The treasurer knows he needs to keep the engine running to keep moving. He also realises that he does not need to be a mechanic to do this; however he needs to be able to tell the mechanics quickly why the car is not moving as the treasurer wants it to be so the mechanic can fix this. Or maybe the digital treasurer might change the car for a plane in the future, or even a rocket?

It is clear that technology and treasury are interconnected. Already now and even more in the future. A treasurer therefore needs a digital mindset to survive and keep up with the information needs of his department and the company as a whole. And it’s not rocket science (yet).

Patrick Kunz 

Treasury, Finance & Risk Consultant/ Owner Pecunia Treasury & Finance BV

 





 

The IT savvy treasurer

Saving on FX deals? Often neglected but potentially a “pot of gold”

How much are you paying your bank?

 

treasuryXL news: Community Manager

| 22-9-2017 | treasuryXL |

Since our start in April 2016, treasuryXL made major steps to become a well-established website. We are happy with what we have achieved and growth is promising. Currently, 12.000 site pages are visited on a monthly basis. We have a strong basis of readers who come back every month, often a number of times.

Our community is continuously expanding with authors, editors, sponsors and readers. We can provide you with fresh, treasury related content on a daily basis: articles, vacancies and events. In the start-up phase our main goal was gathering good content on a daily basis. This is what we are already doing over a year, a time consuming task! Gradually I have added distribution to this task, increasing our audience. The next phase of treasuryXL will be about increasing the number of partners and new channels to bring you treasury stories.

While being your community manager I’ve learned a lot about the treasury world and certainly made new friends! I look back on a dynamic time and many inspiring moments. Now, new, inspiring tasks await me in a new position. I want to thank you all for your support and the pleasant cooperation we have had. Currently we are still searching for new community manager. In the meantime treasuryXL can still be reached via [email protected] and 06-21303744.

Thank you all for a pleasant cooperation and perhaps our paths will cross.

Annette Gillhart – Community manager treasuryXL

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Brexit – hard or soft? What does it actually mean?

| 20-9-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

Brexit is a fact, no news here. Discussions about how this Brexit is going to look like are an ongoing topic in the newspapers. Hard Brexit or soft Brexit – what does it actually mean for the UK and the European Union? What are the consequences of a hard Brexit compared to those of a soft Brexit to all of us? It implies there are 2 paths that can be followed – actually there are 3.

3 paths

  • No deal
  • Hard – should really be called a clean Brexit
  • Soft – should really be called unclear Brexit

No deal

This is exactly as it says – if no deal is reached between both parties. UK would no longer be obliged to follow EU law and treaties. This would lead to a period of uncertainty and confusion and new treaties would need to be implemented, whilst both sides would not be receptive to each other. The EU could still try to pursue UK through international courts for monies that it felt were still owed. Highly turbulent, but could happen.

Hard

Leaving the EU by mutual consent but not actually agreeing on the future, UK would no longer have to observe the pillars of the EU that currently prevail. This includes such issues as immigration, free movement, asylum, fisheries and agriculture to name but a few. Trade would fall under WTO rules until a mutual trade policy could be drafted.

Soft

This implies links being retained between both parties, specifically towards trade. It would mean UK would gain entry to a tariff free EU market, whilst accepting free movement of people. UK would have to pay for entry, whilst being denied a vote in EU matters.

Scenarios and consequences

So, what are the chances of these scenarios and many others happening?
To answer that question we have to go back to the actual question asked at the referendum – “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”
The wording is very important – it was not worded should we leave the EU; yes or no. This was to remove any bias in people’s comprehension as to what they were voting for. As the majority of the electorate voted to leave the EU, this makes any attempt at a soft Brexit difficult to justify against the vote of the people. Any agreement where UK pays the EU and accepts EU rule negates the referendum question.
If the referendum is negated by the actions of politicians against the will of the people, then this could lead to a crisis in the country. Flagrantly ignoring the will of the people could lead to social and political unrest.
Politicians in the UK work in Parliament, work for their party and also, very importantly, work for their constituents. A MP has to make him/herself available to answer questions from their constituents.

In the UK, voting, whilst primarily for a political party, is specifically for your local MP who represents you in Parliament. It would take a very brave (or foolhardy) politician who would ignore the will of the majority of the people. That is not to say that it could happen, just that the consequences are far reaching and difficult to predict.

The divorce settlement

The EU is demanding a sum of money from UK (currently thought to be around EUR 100 million) to settle outstanding commitments. As the 2 were never legally married, it appears an affront to demand money. UK was entitled to grant a referendum, allowing the people to decide, and no laws have been broken. The argument used by the EU that there is an agreed rolling budget for the period of 2014-2020 makes it appear that it is set in stone and can not be changed. Based on current UK contributions and the fact that they will leave in 2019, then EUR 100 million sounds excessive for the 1 remaining year of the budget.
Furthermore, if the EU wishes to pursue a divorce settlement, then UK can look at obtaining their rightful share of the assets of the EU – that also happens in a divorce. UK has been a net contributor to the EU budget for the last 40 years.

What are the consequences for all involved?

Markets will remain volatile – uncertainty will prevail at least for the next 18 months. Certain markets and countries will be badly affected – the EU fishing industry will certainly suffer if the UK exercise control over their maritime waters. Banking will be in a state of flux – will large banks leave UK and resettle in EU to have access to EU markets? Where will settlement of EUR transactions take place? German car manufacturers could be denied access to one of their top markets or face stiff tariffs to import their vehicles into UK. Will we be able to freely move and live where we want to, whilst seeking employment or claiming benefit?

The chances of forming any agreement within the next 18 months are small. There is so much that needs to be agreed upon in a relatively short time frame. If the will of the people is to be honoured, then one must draw the conclusion that the end result will be a hard Brexit.
If UK politicians choose for a Soft Brexit, then they could face the wrath of the people and a second Glorious revolution could happen, though I do not see Rutte playing the role of the Prince of Orange.
He, after all, ignored the will of the people over the Ukraine referendum…

I always try to write from an objective point of view. Being English by birth, I realize that a lot of what I have written can be perceived as subjective.I was unable to vote in this referendum but, if truth be told, I would have gladly voted to leave.
The EU has lost its way and further integration will eventually lead to fiscal union. This would result in a permanent transfer of wealth from the wealthy countries to the poorer. There would be no incentive for poorer countries to improve their economies – the rich will pay.

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 





More articles from this author:

The end of the Euro as we know it – When the party ends?

The treasurer and data

Managing treasury risk : Risk management (Part I) (Parts II – VII to be found on treasuryXL)

Blockchain Innovation Conference 2017- An inspiring event

Treasury for non-treasurers: Data analysis and forecasting – seeing the future by looking at the past (Part I)
(Parts II – III to be found on treasuryXL)

Building a cash flow forecast model

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