Will the ECB taper off its Quantitative Easing programme?
| 23-10-2017 | Lionel Pavey |
On the 26th October the ECB will have their next meeting. One of the main topics will be regarding the current QE programme and a possible announcement over its extension into 2018. Currently the ECB has, after 2 ½ years of QE, purchased more than EUR 2 trillion of mainly Government bonds. At present their monthly purchases amount to roughly EUR 60 billion per month.
A poll organized by Reuters would seem to indicate that the monthly programme would be tapered down to EUR 30-50 billion per month and possibly last for another 6 to 12 months from the start of 2018. Inflation is expected to be around 1.5 per cent till at least the start of 2019 – below the ECB target of just below 2 per cent.
However, under the current rules that govern the QE progamme the upper limit on outstanding purchases is around EUR 2.5 trillion. Taking the existing monthly purchases through to the end of 2017, implies starting 2018 with a balance of at least EUR 2.2 trillion – leaving just EUR 300 billion of headroom for future purchases. If it cut monthly purchases in half, the scheme could be extend to the end of the 3rd quarter in 2018, but no further.
Can the ECB continue QE longer than expected?
The constraints imposed on QE mainly relate to the purchase of Government bonds – maximum 33 per cent of each countries outstanding debt and maximum 25 per cent of any bond issue. The provisions written into the Maastricht Treaty clearly state that the ECB may not finance member states. QE also purchases non-bank bonds (covered bonds, corporate bonds and asset backed securities) which are subject to different criteria – maximum of 70 per cent of any bond issue.
At present, the ECB only holds about 13 per cent of the eligible bonds leaving a large headroom for future possible purchases.
It is conceivable that the ECB could reduce its purchase of Government bonds and simultaneously increase its purchase of corporate bonds, thereby maintaining liquidity to its QE programme. The major drawback is that it would reduce the amount of freely tradable corporate bonds in circulation and have an effect on their price.
What does this mean for interest rates?
As long term debt instruments use Government bond yields as the basis for calculating their yield, when the ECB stops buying Government bonds, the yields on all other debt instruments will increase. At the moment the benchmark (German 10 year Government bonds) yield around 0.4 per cent per annum and the 10 year Interest Rate Swap yields around 0.9 per cent per annum. In 2014 (the year before QE started) German yields averaged 1.25 per cent even though they were in a downward trend the whole year. Assuming the yield spread between Government bonds and Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) remained constant, this implies 10 year IRS moving to at least 1.75 per cent. This would still be below the long term average since the inception of the EURO in 1999 that stands around 3.35 per cent, but a significant increase from the current level of 0.9 per cent.
What happens when the next crisis arrives?
The ECB is not the only central bank to use a form of QE. The Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all have their own versions. When these countries also taper out their QE, naturally there will be a corresponding rise in interest rates. However, if a new financial crisis was suddenly to happen (not unthinkable at the moment) all 3 of these central banks can reapply QE to stimulate their economies. An additional increase to their balance sheets can be accommodated.
Unfortunately for the ECB the very criteria that now applies would make it impossible to restart QE. The ECB could not just increase its balance sheet – current criteria and regulation make that impossible. Any attempt to change the rules would be met by objections from national governments within the EU and legal action. The Bundesbank were very vocal in their objections to the implementation of QE in 2015 – those protests will not have softened by now.
This shows the constraints prevalent upon the EURO – monetary policy is the only tool that the ECB has at its disposal. One policy can not be used to fix all the problems present with the economies of all member states.
Cash Management and Treasury Specialist
Op donderdag 9 november 2017 vindt de voorlichtingsavond voor de Postgraduate opleidingen, waaronder de opleiding Treasury Management & Corporate Finance, van de School of Business and Economics van de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam plaats.
Traditionally, banks provided the infrastructure to enable payments to take place. Nowadays, there are many different third party online payment services that compete directly with the bank models. We came across an interesting article detailing the rise of a mobile payment platform with a large customer base in China, which is bigger than well-known services such as Paypal. It is part of the Alibaba Group who already have a large presence in Europe via AliExpress – after making a large impact on European online shopping, will they make an impact on the payments systems?
We all have these topics we know are important but never get the highest priority. Until it is too late. Cybersecurity is one of them. Do you want to be the treasurer named in the newspapers? Finding examples and input on-line is not hard. Only this morning these articles popped up through LinkedIn:
According to a recent Juniper Research study “Blockchain Enterprise Survey”, IBM is seen as the number one provider of blockchain to business, well ahead of its competitors. These results are based on a survey of 400 business users from organisations actively considering, or in the process of deploying blockchain technology. Of the surveyed 43% ranked IBM first, followed by Microsoft (20%) and Accenture.
Waarom aandacht voor werkkapitaalbeheersing? Professionele services organisaties zoals advocaten, accountants maar ook andere tijd schrijvende organisaties kenmerken zich door een uiterst loyale cliënt opstelling. Loyaal in de zin dat de cliënt vraag centraal staat en dat deze vraag zo spoedig mogelijk beantwoord dient te worden. Als het probleem van de cliënt is opgelost is de professional tevreden. Op zich is daar niets mis mee. Maar dan……..
Last Tuesday 
Eind deze maand stuurt de AFM weer een voortgangsrapportage inzake de uitvoering van het Uniform Herstelkader Rentederivaten naar de Tweede Kamer. Volgens berichtgeving vorige week in het FD zal daar in staan dat de banken vrijwel geen voortgang geboekt hebben. Het blijkt dat “van de bijna 20.000 gedupeerde MKB’ers er slechts een handjevol een schadevergoeding heeft gekregen en pas enkele tientallen een voorstel voor schadevergoeding[1]”
