The Blank Sheet Treasury – a Guideline answering the “How”, “When” and “Why”

07-12-2021 | Jesper Nielsen-Terp | treasuryXL  | LinkedIn

During times of crisis, like the financial crisis in 2009, or the Covid-19 pandemic which still hits us, we often hear the old phrase “Cash is King”. The Treasurer and the Treasury Department are once again back in the middle of the fire by the end of the day. Influenced by the CEO or the CFO, the board of directors is overall responsible for the financial strategic target settings. The tasks and responsibilities flow however from the top management and will end up at the Treasurers’ desk. Therefore, A treasurer has to structure the initial thoughts when building or re-shaping the treasury setup.

To be prepared for the fireplace, I believe that it is crucial for the Treasurer or the Finance Department employees carrying out treasury activities, that a clear strategy is implemented and outlined. Not only a strategy for how the policies and guidelines are carried out, but a strong mandate from Top management and maybe all the way from the Board of Directors. A mandate carved in stone, so no one can be in doubt when something hits the fan.

“Do not ask what the company can do for you, but ask…”

There are a couple of questions that all back-office functions need to ask themselves on a regular basis. The answer to the questions should dictate the activities that are undertaken on any given day. First, they should ask, “Is this activity going to increase the company’s revenue?”.  If the answer is no, they should move on to question number two, “Is this activity going to reduce the company’s cost base?”. Once again, if the answer is no, then they should move on to question number three, “Will this activity delight the customer?”.  If the answers to all three of these questions are no, then we need to examine the activity to understand why we are conducting it.

The Blank Sheet Treasury

In order to understand why the recommendations that follow are applicable, we must decide what it is that we as a Treasury Department are trying to accomplish and why.  There are certain practices in Treasury across the world that should drive our behavior. In examining these practices, one potential structure emerges; the Blank Sheet Treasury. This way we are starting with our objectives and future state in mind instead of our current state.

In my opinion, the future state should equal the Treasurer to be prepared and know how to handle future potential crises, whether it is a business-related financial crisis or a worldwide pandemic.

Coming back to the phrase “Cash is King”, when in the middle of a crisis, everything else than access to cash or cash visibility should be a next day issue for the Treasurer. Stating this should give an idea why I believe the Blank Sheet Treasury always should start within the area of Cash/Liquidity Management, which of course can come in many different flavours.

The initial process

Coming back to the statements about having a focus on future state and the mandates to get there, the initial process visualized below is a tool that the Treasurer needs in his/her toolbox. Maybe not the most innovative tool, but most likely one of the most important tools, if not the most important, when shaping, re-shaping and driving treasury.

The process map works like a Lego building instruction, where there actually is a possibility to skip or change the order, but when doing it, the result will not be what we were aiming for, or even worse than what our surroundings (stakeholders) thought we were aiming for. So if the order somehow is changed or some parts are skipped, it will be similar to an “un-finished” Lego construction. It will in some cases be functional, but there will always be some spare and important “bricks” left on the table. In the Lego context, some left bricks might not make a difference or at least not a huge difference, but in a corporate context the repairment will have a critical impact on time, costs and lost confidence from stakeholders.

The foundation for everything else

Before moving to the discussion on the Leadership mandate and afterwards on daily-life guidelines for the Treasury Department, let’s first make sure that a part of the objectives and future state is the idea that everything is to be accomplished (now or in a few years). Not only will it be a guide for the “how, when and why”, but also because top management, which gives access to the budget, want visibility and take decisions based on valid information.

As the majority of Treasurers and their departments have Cash/Liquidity Management as one of their key deliveries and as the Cash/Liquidity Management highly impacts other workflows in the Treasury Department, it is somehow the foundation for everything else and therefore a good place to start.

This figure is of course not a golden rulebook, and for some Treasury Departments priorities can come in another order. But when talking to Treasurers about their priorities and building or re-shaping their setup, the figure outlines to a great extent how they see the structures and how they want to manage the process of reaching the end line.

Best Practise and Future Workflows

Each of the circles has some underlying characteristics and is decomposed into a number of workflows. Here, the objectives for the future state and best practise will come into play.

In this recommendation, Cash Management is identified as the foundation for other workflows. Next to that, when looking into job descriptions and talking to Treasurers about their key objectives,  FX Risk Management is identified to be high on the agenda. Therefore, the following graphs will assist the visualizing and guidance of Cash and FX Risk Management.

 

The Best Practise box has to be filled out by the company (the Treasury Department), based on their needs and very much linked to the Objective/Future State. The question asked here is; ‘’Does the Company actually know what is the best practise in each of the workflows or could there actually be multiple solutions for the Best Practise?’’

The answer for both questions will for the majority of companies be that the Treasury Department has some thoughts and ideas for what they see as Best Practise for their setup, but at the same time they will recognize that a solution for the future state and the Best Practise for this, can come in different varieties – it is not a One Size Fits All. When agreed on the Best Practise for the future state, it will then be time to start visualizing the future workflows, which will give some thoughts and ideas for what actually has to be built, changed and implemented.

 

One of the pitfalls to avoid here is to not look too much into what worked in the past and in addition avoid looking at single workflows (in this example Cash and FX Risk Management).
As a normal part of being a human being, there can be a significant probability to start applying what worked well in the past, because the Treasurer might have some experience or preferences from similar projects. Thus, there will be a tendency of implementing the same workflows and systems used in the past, even though they do not fit into the entire puzzle.

 


The entire puzzle

Likewise in our own lives, the CFO wants to see the full picture and understand the full picture, before opening up the purse and increasing capital expenditure. With this in mind and the objective of getting a budget, do not only look into the short-term and easily reachable targets but think big and layout the entire puzzle. Still continue to grab the low hanging fruits though, because they are to be grabbed in order to keep momentum.

What is the entire puzzle and how can it be shown in a simple, but the informative structure, so no one will be in doubt of the individual workflows on the journey of reaching the objectives and creating a best-in-class treasury setup.

To assist in laying out the entire puzzle, all workflows will be identified and structured by their “Value” and “Importance”. Therefore, the below chart can be the guide for where to start as well as be used in the dialogue with the CFO and other stakeholders. Once again it is important to state that the chart is not a golden rule book, but an inspiration for how to make progress on the journey.

 

The red box will obviously be the initial most wins and the focus areas. Even though most wins have been identified, the entire puzzle is still unfinished, because it is actually laying like a puzzle.

The box has been unpacked and the puzzle pieces have been sorted.  The next step for the Treasury Department will be to make the final move and bring their game plan. A game plan is divided into a number of streams showing the how, when and why.

*Policies/Procedures are in the initial phase not a part of the Blank Sheet Treasury, but as stated above in each of the streams as it is something that needs to be in place when start implementing.

 

Using streams and a given timeline for each of the streams as well as combining the different areas and the workflow process identified, the Treasurer now has made a construction manual for how to implement a best practise setup for the future state.

When utilizing some or maybe all of the recommendations and figures in this article, it will be possible for the Treasury Department to start taking the dialogue with the CFO and potentially other stakeholders, who need to be involved in the process. Because when being able to identify the how, when and why, and showing the entire process and the needs, the CFO can see the entire picture. A picture that can be used when moving into the next section, where mandates will be given to the Treasurer and a budget needs to be allocated.

Additional considerations

When using a Blank Sheet Treasury setup, the probability of succeeding is higher if no planning has been made. Moreover, the Treasurer needs to consider whether or not the right resources are in place when moving into the building, crafting or re-shaping the phases. When talking about resources, it will both be human resources and resources in terms of systems.

In terms of human resources, it can be internal resources, such as treasury and/or IT people, or external resources, such as treasury consultants. Speaking about consultants, it might be worth considering. Even though it comes with a cost, advantages are gained in time and knowledge.

On the system side, the Treasurer will have to decide whether or not he/she can bring his/her plan to live with the existing system landscape, and if not, the process will have to be added with a suggestion to make changes to the current system landscape.

Thank you for reading and looking forward to your thoughts.

 

 

Jesper Nielsen-Terp

Treasury & Risk Management Expert

 

 

Does Your Business Need Protection from FX Uncertainty?

| 02-12-2021 | Xe | treasuryXL | LinkedIn |

Don’t have a bank account? Want to have cash on you? In those cases, cash pickup could be the money transfer method for you.

One of the most interesting aspects of what the XE Business Solutions team does is having relationships across a broad range of industries. It helps our team curate unique insights into the various pressures and financial models being used by all the businesses we work with. The relationships our foreign exchange sales consultants build fine-tune their understanding of regional business sentiment and common international best practices.

There are many viewpoints on how to treat fast-moving FX rates. Some simply hope that the market will self-correct over time. Others make best-effort forecasts to try to understand all possible currency value directions of currency prices. From our vantage point, we see that businesses which are exposed to significant risks are more likely to achieve their objectives by employing a hedging program.

Foreign Exchange Volatility is a Universal Business Challenge

Big brands are just as susceptible to market movements as any other business segment. Currency volatility can impact profit margins if not managed correctly. Earnings reports are replete with warnings to shareholders pertaining to the value of assets and cash flows being affected by unmanaged or unexpected shifts in values of currency.

Looking deeper into hedging behaviours, enterprise-level businesses have a tendency to employ rich hedging programs and while it is by no means necessary to emulate their level of complexity; certainly the point regarding ‘best practices’ is clear.

Here are some insights on how the ‘big guys’ see ForEx risks across the globe as a result of their survey of corporations (Deloitte 2016 Global FX Survey and IMP Exchange Rate Risk Measurement and Management working paper: Issues and Approaches for Firms):

The top three reported ‘Primary hedging objectives’ were defined as:

  1. Reducing income statement volatility

  2.  Protecting cash flows

  3.  Protecting consolidated earnings

In terms of strategy, the breakdown of risk management strategies is as follows:

  • 8% of those surveyed employ a static or annual hedging programme (buying once a year)

  • 31% use a rolling hedge but a flat amount (buying monthly, quarterly etc)

  • 28% actively hedge using a rolling hedge strategy increasing over time to seek to average rates

  • 33% use ad hoc or hedging by situation

The survey found that global corporate hedging strategies consist of these approaches:

  • Hedging using a financial instrument like a forward contract or option – 89%

  • Naturally hedging through balancing buying and selling in the same currency (some or all of the exposure) – 58%

  • Passing costs to suppliers or customers – 28%

  • No FX risk management practices at all – 2%

These breakdowns further:

  • Using a FX forward or Non-deliverable forward – 92%

  • Using FX Options – 30%

  • Using specifically FX Option collars – 15%

It is always interesting to get a look into the strategies employed by others and particularly the way that large, professional companies approach managing a key part of their risk program.

The key takeaway is that almost all of the companies Deloitte surveyed are hedging using some kind of financial tool specifically designed to provide consistency and protect cash flows.

Probably a much higher percentage than many would think are using Options products and rolling hedges over on a regular basis as part of a specific policy that guides them in virtually any market condition. Some real food for thought there….

Currency Market Analysis

Here is today’s market recap:

GBPEUR – The Pound maintained its position yesterday and this morning against the Euro as many traders await details on what steps Members of Parliament will take when it opens next week. Labour has indicated they will seek and emergency debate on Brexit next week but no information regarding a no-confidence vote is yet available.

GBPUSD – The pound is expected to come under pressure in general as the suspension of parliament is seen as increasing the chances of a no-deal Brexit. With this in mind, it appears likely that we could test and break the 1.2060/1.2015 level downwards, which likely will open up losses against the Dollar of some significant ground.

EURUSD – While the trading calm remains in the pair, there is a chance hard economic data will begin to outweigh hard sentiment from the ECB. Germany reported a decline of 2.2% in Retail Sales in July (on top of a downward revision). Consumption is largely propping up the German economy and this is slowing as well. A potential risk for euro weakness exists.

Please contact us for more info about your international payments or log in.

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Figuring Out your Company’s FX Requirements

| 25-11-2021| treasuryXL | XE | LinkedIn

There is no crystal ball that can accurately tell you the future of where a currency will trade in the short, medium or long-term.

 

When looking to partner with an FX provider, your first priority should be to evaluate the payments your business has made previously in order to get a better idea of the FX products and services that will best fit your business’ needs. And, when selecting a provider, make sure they understand your industry and the jurisdictions you are making payments to.

1. Frequency

How often are you making (or will you make) international payments? Making overseas payments costs more per transaction. The more payments you make, the more critical it is to get the cost per transaction right.

2. Amounts

The amounts you transfer affects the overall cost. Smaller amounts will have a higher margin added, therefore it’s worth determining whether you can bundle your payments to sharpen the margin you attract.

3. Timing

With exchange rates constantly fluctuating, the timing of your payments will have an impact on your overall profitability. If you do business in areas where currency valuations are highly volatile, an FX provider which can effectively advise you about the risks and opportunities of short or long-term foreign exchange contracts is ideal.

4. Industry

Each industry is different when it comes to the three factors above. Therefore, selecting a provider that understands your industry can make a big difference, as they’ll often be able to suggest the best foreign exchange service offering for your type of business.

Your business is as unique as you are. Don’t settle for generic money transfer services which treat your business as a number on a spreadsheet.

5. Geography

Finally, when selecting an FX provider, make sure they understand any regional nuances particular to the jurisdictions you are sending your money to – this will ensure your payments go through smoothly, and in a timely manner.

Taking the time to understand these five factors is the first step in taking control of your business’s FX requirements and will put you in good stead when selecting the right FX provider for your business.

Ready to learn more?

Download our essential FX Guide for Aussie and Kiwi businesses.


The hidden secret behind the different types of foreign exchange exposure

23-11-2021 | treasuryXL | Kantox | LinkedIn

Fresh from leaving the famous Genesis rock band that he helped found, songwriter and musician Peter Gabriel came out with an innovative album called Exposure, where his fascination with electronics and new recording techniques was openly on display. In the eponymous song, he kept on droning the E-word over and over:

Exposure
Exposure
Exposure
Exposure
Exposure

Expert-led Conversation | The Digitalisation of Treasury: Your FX Risk Management toolbox for 2022 | 30 November 2021

treasuryXL | Kantox

 

Date & time: November 30, 2021 at 9.30 am CET | Duration 45 minutes

2022 is just around the corner, and we want to make sure you’re armed with the best technology tools to help push your treasury department to the next level. 

Join Kantox and TreasuryXL in this expert-led conversation on the future of FX risk management and the treasury trends to tap into in 2022.

Simplify your global business payments

18-11-2021| treasuryXL | XE | LinkedIn

 

Whether your business needs to process 3 or 150 international payments a month, learn how you can make payments to 220+ countries within your own business applications, and benefit from:

• Faster automated payment processes
• Savings using bank-beating exchange rates
• More accurate reporting by eliminating manual errors
• Secure transactions by validating payment data before it’s sent
• Transparency by receive tracking and reporting of each payment to its destination
• Flexibility to send to multiple currencies in a single file upload

Xe enables you to achieve everything a third-party payment provider has to offer, directly from your own business applications.

 

5 reasons why integrating Xe Global Business Payments into your own business applications will help power your business:

1. Improve your Financial Reporting
Xe Global Payments within your own business platform allows you to automatically reconcile foreign currency exchange rates directly at time of transaction. This means no more duplication or transferal of data from one application to another. Greater accuracy means greater transparency and visibility on your financial reporting, enabling you to make more confident business decisions.

2. Protect supply chain relationships and staff in overseas offices
If you are paying suppliers overseas, you want to ensure that your supply chain is protected, that you have full visibility on expenses so that your customer base is not impacted by any delays or rise in cost. And if you need to pay staff overseas you want to ensure they receive the right amount, on time, every time. By using Xe Global Business Payments within your own platform, any errors with bank account details are immediately highlighted, giving you time to rectify any costly mistakes.

3. Stop paying more than you should
Xe’s preferential exchange rates typically save you typically more money than if you used your bank for your business global payments. When you streamline your payment processes using Xe Global Business Payments in your own application, you are saving time on every overseas payment. That means you can save both time and money.

4. Improve speed and accuracy of high-volume, time-sensitive payments
It’s so important to have strict data verification and validation processes. We verify payments before they’re sent, so we can quickly flag any unsuccessful payments. For example, our system has a table of rules for each of the different payout currencies we offer. If you uploaded a payment to Brazil without a bank CLABE number, it would tell you it’s missing. Sending certain currencies can be extremely problematic, so we take out the guess work and make sure payments get where they need to go.

5. Get the right specialist support
A solution can only be as good as the support it offers. At Xe, we understand the daily challenges global Finance functions face. Our support team establishes a good rapport with clients and get to grips with the practical and technical elements of resolving problems quickly and efficiently. Our experts are available around the clock, to resolve issues no matter where clients are located or what time zone they’re in.

By using Xe Global Payments within your Microsoft Dynamics 365 or Sage Intacct applications, you can streamline your international payments process, and benefit from quality customer service and support from Xe’s front and back-end operations.

 


Changing priorities of corporate treasurers post-pandemic

| 15-11-2021 | Eurofinance | treasuryXLLinkedIn

More than 18 months have passed since treasury professionals around the world had to leave their offices at short notice due to the escalating covid-19 crisis. In April 2021, EuroFinance carried out a survey to find out more about the different ways the pandemic has affected treasury professionals. Alongside the adoption of remote working, the subsequent report highlights treasurers’ accelerated adoption of digital technologies, and the contribution that treasurers make to board-level decision-making during a crisis.

What are the key takeaways from this report?

  • The importance of cash flow forecasting has been underlined by the crisis. Almost three quarters of treasury professionals have increased their focus on cash forecasting during the crisis, while 54% plan to prioritise cash forecasting in the future.
  • Cash management and liquidity management remains a top priority for treasury professionals. Seven out of ten said cash management/liquidity management was a top priority going forward.
  • Covid-19 has accelerated digital transformation. Alongside the rise in remote working, treasury teams have increased their adoption of robotic process automation (RPA), APIs/cloud, machine learning/AI and virtual accounts/in-house banks.
  • Treasurers have been more involved in board-level decision making during the pandemic, with 39% of treasurers saying they are more involved since the crisis began.

Want to see the full report?

Download here

 

 

How To Expand Your Business Overseas

11-11-2021| treasuryXL | XE | LinkedIn

As a growing business, expanding overseas can present a lot of exciting opportunities. However, it also requires some careful thought as it can seriously disrupt your existing business activities – even if only temporarily. Therefore, it’s vital that business owners looking to expand have fully understood the impact this will have on the day-to-day running of the company, as well as determining whether the rewards are going to outweigh the risks. If going overseas is the next important step for your business, that’s great news, but knowing where to start can be tricky. You need to gain a deep understanding of the competition, local market, whether you’ll need new office space and how you’ll build your international team.

That’s why we’ve put together this guide. Below, we’re going to take a look at eight steps you must take when expanding your business overseas if you hope to succeed.

Read on to find out more.

1. Perform due diligence

Following on from what we said above, before you expand overseas, it’s crucial that you understand the marketplace, competition and the risks. The best way to do this is to perform a deep dive due diligence. This should involve:

  • A market segmentation analysis to determine if your product will be well received in the local market

  • A product gap analysis when compared with other local goods or services
    Competitor analysis

  • Your market opportunity/sizing

  • How you’ll need to grow/adapt your team to cater for your international expansion

By doing so, you can determine whether this is going to be the right move for your business and your workforce whilst weighing up the risks and rewards.

2. Put together a detailed strategy and business plan

As with any new business decision – especially one of this size – a detailed strategy and business plan need to be created. This needs to take into account the specific economic, cultural, governmental and market conditions in the local area.

Your strategy should include your short, medium and long-term goals, and it should set out your metrics for measuring success. It’s also important to create a budget, tactical plan, key dates and marketing strategy.

By putting together a localised strategy in this way, you can stay on the path to success whilst ensuring that your move overseas stays in line with the overall business goals and objectives.

3. Create a frontline team

When moving your business overseas, it can be tempting to quickly try and build a local team from scratch. This can be extremely time-consuming, risky and means your expansion is not going to get off to the best start.

Instead, you should consider relocating some of your key senior staff, even if the move is just temporary. By relocating proven and talented members of your team to your overseas location, you can hit the ground running.

After all, they already know the business, so they can get things set up. They can then help with the recruiting process to ensure that you employ local people who fit with the company culture and can continue to drive the business forward. This will obviously take a bit of work and lots of incentives to have staff members be willing to relocate but taking most of the stress out of it with luggage shipping and providing temporary housing is a good start.

4. Make sure your goods or services are prepared

Your gap analysis should have highlighted any areas of weakness, so you need to take the necessary steps to get your goods or services ready for the new local marketplace. This means:

  • Making changes to ensure your goods or services stand out from existing offerings

  • Determining whether you need to localise your goods or services. For example, does the name translate OK into the local language or does it need changing?

  • Getting a patent and trademark review to ensure your ideas cannot be duplicated by another local provider

  • Conducting tests and quality assurance to ensure your goods or services are up to local standards

  • Starting to build a local logistics and distribution network

5. Determine your organisational readiness

A one size fits all approach will not work when it comes to moving your business overseas. This is because the different languages, regulations, laws, customs and cultures will impact how you implement business policies and procedures.

Therefore, you need to make sure that your business can be flexible and accommodate these differences. You also need to evaluate your current structure and whether this will work in another country.

Not only this, but you need to decide on the average salaries, compensation packages and types of benefit programs you’ll be able to offer to your workforce. Remember, if you want to attract talented local professionals, you need to offer competitive packages.

6. Create a marketing strategy

When entering a new market, you need to make sure you have a go-to marketing strategy in place to help you effectively sell your goods or services overseas. This requires a strong sales model and methodology, as well as a pricing model that reflects the local market.

You also need to make sure that your branding will be well received by your new international customer base and create a marketing strategy that shouts about this.

7. Consider your legal readiness

Just as with your organisational readiness, you also need to make sure that you have all the necessary legal documentation and regulations in place, especially because some countries can be very litigious. If you’re unsure what you need to do, it might be time to get a professional opinion before spending time and money expanding overseas.

By ensuring that you get all the right local commercial agreements in place, review any local industry regulations and just generally stay proactive, you can mitigate the risks of legal action or problems further down the line.

This also includes getting the proper tax and finance infrastructures set up so that your foreign branch of the business is adhering to all local corporate policies and procedures.

8. Start establishing relationships with local businesses

The final step in this guide is to start establishing relationships with local businesses to give your own business a strong competitive advantage.

In doing so, you can create a supporting ecosystem of complementary products and services by working closely with local providers. For example, this could be manufacturers, shipping and courier services or local banks.

Now you’re finally ready to make the leap; you should be all set up financially, legally and with a team of talented professionals ready to help expand your business.


Netflix’s ‘Squid Game’ and the 45 billion won question: “How much is that worth?”

04-11-2021| treasuryXL | XE | LinkedIn

The South Korean won has unexpectedly become the world’s second-most searched currency.

It’s safe to say that almost everyone watching ‘Squid Game’ has wondered what the cash prize is actually worth in their local currency. Searches for currency conversion of the South Korean won (KRW) to various local currencies, especially the Mexican peso (MXN) and US Dollar (USD), have skyrocketed in popularity since the show started streaming on September 17th. Being the world’s most trusted currency authority here at Xe, we saw our traffic spike over 1,000% for just those two conversions alone.

45 billion is a lot of money in any currency. But for viewers everywhere, we are here to break down that number for you!

Using Xe’s live exchange rates, 1 KRW is worth approximately 0.00084 USD, or 0.01737 MXN, or… select any currency and see for yourself! That means that the cash prize amount of 45.6 Billion Korean converts to over $38,000,000 USD.

Now, if only I could find some white Vans for my Halloween costume… Those searches spiked over 7,800%!


Why Do Currencies Fluctuate?

21-10-2021| treasuryXL | XE | LinkedIn

These days, some currency rates are jumping to all-time highs while others plunge to record lows. Exchange rates are constantly fluctuating, but what, exactly, causes a currency’s value to rise and fall? Simply put, currencies fluctuate based on supply and demand.

 

Most of the world’s currencies are bought and sold based on flexible exchange rates, meaning their prices fluctuate based on the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. High demand for a currency or a shortage in its supply will cause an increase in price. A currency’s supply and demand are tied to a number of intertwined factors including the country’s monetary policy, the rate of inflation, and political and economic conditions.

Monetary Policy

One way a country may stimulate its economy is through its monetary policy. Many central banks attempt to control the demand for currency by increasing or decreasing the money supply and/or benchmark interest rates.

“With a low interest rate, people and businesses are more willing and able to borrow money”

The money supply is the amount of a currency in circulation. As a country’s money supply increases and the currency becomes more available, the price of borrowing the currency goes down. The interest rate is the price at which money can be borrowed. With a low interest rate, people and businesses are more willing and able to borrow money. As they continually spend this borrowed money, the economy grows. However, if there is too much money in the economy and the supply of goods and services does not increase accordingly, prices may begin to inflate.

Rate of Inflation

Another variable that heavily influences the value of a currency is the inflation rate. The inflation rate is the rate at which the general price of goods and services are increasing. While a small amount of inflation indicates a healthy economy, too much of an increase can cause economic instability, which may ultimately lead to the currency’s depreciation.

A country’s inflation rate and interest rates heavily influence its economy. If the inflation rate gets too high, the central bank may counteract the problem by raising the interest rate. This encourages people to stop spending and instead save their money. It also stimulates foreign investment and increases the amount of capital entering the marketplace, which leads to an increased demand for currency. Therefore, an increase in a country’s interest rate leads to an appreciation of its currency. Similarly, a decrease in an interest rate causes depreciation of the currency.

Political and Economic Conditions

The economic and political conditions of a country can also cause a currency’s value to fluctuate. While investors enjoy high interest rates, they also value the predictability of an investment. This is why currencies from politically stable and economically sound countries generally have higher demand, which, in turn, leads to higher exchange rates.

Markets continually monitor the current and expected future economic conditions of countries. In addition to money supply changes, interest rates, and inflation rates, other key economic indicators include gross domestic product, unemployment rate, housing starts, and trade balance (a country’s total exports less its total imports). If these indicators show a strong and growing economy, its currency will tend to appreciate as demand increases.

Similarly, strong political conditions impact currency values positively. If a country is in the midst of political unrest or global tensions, the currency becomes less attractive and demand falls. On the other hand, if a market sees the introduction of a new government that suggests stability or strong future economic growth, a currency may appreciate as people buy it based on the good news.

Conclusion

There is no single indicator that explains exactly why a currency has fluctuated or predicts with certainty what its price will do. Instead, many factors related to demand and supply affect currency values. What has been shown is that more knowledge and understanding of market conditions and their implications for currency fluctuations leads to more accurate predictions.