Tag Archive for: risk

Currency markets impacted by a number of factors as we open a new decade

| 9-1-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

The markets have been exposed to some real turmoil. In the wake of the tensions in the Middle East, we have seen a general decline of stocks and move toward typical risk on plays – treasuries are up overall, gold is trending higher and so is oil. Very generally there are a number of themes affecting the major crosses.

Let’s get up to speed and examine these broadly:

GBP:

On one hand, there have been an increase of investment monetary inflows based on economic data. Add to this a general sentiment of rate hikes from the Bank of England still being on the table and a very likely sense of uncertainty or even fear from European exporters with the ECB under a great deal of pressure to stabilise/raise inflation (and be inventive in doing so) and Italy dragging the boat down somewhat there is every opportunity for the trade items to play out in a buoyed GBP. There are a few ‘watch out’ aspects, though. These may include things like monetary policy having been kept on hold due to Brexit (and there could be a case to see the Conservatives attempt to waylay Bank of England’s efforts to raise rates) and the possibility that investors have priced a recession into investment outlook. When reviewing 17 institutional banks’ forecasts for 2020, the consensus is for a rate to the Dollar of 1.3400.

USD:

Again, a tale with two sides to the coin. The Federal Reserve has added liquidity to the repurchase market (short version of this mini-crisis is: that the amount of available cash in this market dropped exactly as the demand for borrowing jumped which made interest rates look outlandish – the added liquidity settles this and resumes a better velocity of money, or speed of funds flowing through the economy). There are still some divisions remaining in terms of the Fed’s outlook for rates, meaning that stabilising and stopping rate cuts isn’t technically off the table. The uncertainty in the Middle East in the clash between the States and Iran means that investors have flocked to the safe-haven currency of the Dollar and add to this some very real concerns about the strength of the global economy and growth forecasts, meaning that safe haven movement could have longer to garner flight to the Dollar all could point to a near to medium term robust USD. Temper this view with some very conflicting US economic data, muted inflation price pressures and China getting rid of bonds – which would force the States to increase its balance sheet.

EUR:

The EUR has had a short-term increase in currency strength versus the GBP, but this is largely from uncertainties of how trade will be arranged in finalising Brexit. There are widespread concerns that, if a deal may not be organised in the timeframe allotted, the UK could default to trading with the EU on World Trade Organisation terms, which are far less favourable than a direct agreement. As earlier mentioned, though, the EU has significant issues brewing in the form of inflation control via the ECB and from a very poor economic performance by Italy in the last 8-12 months in particular. There are green shoots of good news, though, with preliminary German consumer inflation figures looking far better than expected – a significant contribution to solving their issues given Germany’s size and relative impact on the bloc. All things said and done, against the context of uncertainty from geo-political risks and fiscal/trade uncertainties as well, the EUR could well be the net loser in the coming weeks.

Elsewhere in the world, the cost of the bush fires in Australia are touted at being ~$2bn AUD and climbing, but of course, the cost of people’s lives and the lives and environment for their unique and rich wildlife ecosystem will be immeasurable. Our hearts go out to the people of Australia and the brave service people fighting the disaster.

GBPEUR: 1.1800

GBPUSD: 1.3198

EURUSD: 1.1183

The figures are based on the live mid-market rate, correct as of 08:30 GMT on 07/01/2020, and are provided for indicative purposes only. Live mid-market rates are not available to consumers and are for informational purposes only. The rates we quote for money transfer can be selected via the page on our website ‘Live Money Transfer rates’.

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

How to save time and money with International Payments

| 2-1-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

Do you often need to make global transactions? Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. You constantly need to check the markets for the best rates and hope for a great opportunity. But what if you don’t have time to sit and wait? XE can help and take care of it. With a range of solutions to help you access competitive rates with greater control.

Spot Transfer

Need to make a payment right away? Lock your rate for immediate and quick transfers.

With XE you can buy currency at the live exchange rate. If you are looking to purchase currency and make a payment right away, then a spot contract could be perfect for you.

Get started

 

 

Market Orders

Flexible with your transfer time? Pick a rate, transfer automatically when the market hits your desired rate.

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Forward Contracts

Secure a rate for future transfers. Transfer any time at your secured rate within 3 years.

Get started

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

Possible Amendments to the Withdrawal Bill see Pound Fall Sharply

| 19-12-2019 | treasuryXL | XE |

Boris Johnson will bring his Brexit bill before a new intake of MPs this week without some of concessions he made before the election. The Withdrawal Agreement Bill – the key legislation that will pave the way for the UK to leave the European Union on 31 January 2020 – is expected to come before the Commons on Friday.

Under Johnson’s plan Britain is to leave the EU on 31 January once the bill passes, at which point the transition phase with the EU kicks in. During this period, the UK is expected to leave the customs union and single market and enter new negotiated arrangements, but will follow most EU law like other member states. However, it will not have voting rights like other member states.

News on the morning of the 17th has suggested that the Brexit bill is thought to have been rewritten since the one that was backed at the second reading by the previous Parliament. The Conservatives now  have a majority of 80 which means that Johnson is unlikely to bring forward concessions to his Brexit bill that he suggested he would consider at the time. Those include clause 30, allowing MPs to vote on an extension to the transition period beyond 2020 if a free trade deal was not struck in time.

With the new legislation looking to legally prevent delaying a departure beyond 2020 there is a risk that leaving with no deal is back on the table. This new amendment has seen the Pound drop over 1% against the dollar and the Euro. We are now back to the levels we were trading at before the election, with GBPUSD down from 1.35 on Friday to 1.3190 and GBPEUR down to 1.1846 from 1.20+ last week.

It is a fairly data heavy day today with UK average earnings, ILO employment data and Mark Carney speaking which could continue to see volatility in the Pound.

GBPUSD– 1.3190

GBPEUR– 1.1857

EURUSD– 1.1134

The figures are based on the live mid-market rate, correct as of 09:00 GMT on 17/12//2019, and are provided for indicative purposes only. Live mid-market rates are not available to consumers and are for informational purposes only. The rates XE quotes for money transfer can be selected via the page on XE’s website ‘Live Money Transfer rates’.

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

treasuryXL announces partnership with XE.com

| 12-12-2019 | treasuryXL | XE |

treasuryXL announces partnership with XE.com, The World’s Trusted Currency Authority and provider of currency data, FX Risk Management and Technology solutions for businesses

VENLO, The Netherlands, DECEMBER 12, 2019 – treasuryXL, the community platform for everyone who is active in the world of treasury, today announced the premium partnership with the world’s most trusted currency authority XE.com.

XE.com is the first major currency specialist to work with treasuryXL. As a marketplace, treasuryXL will offer XE.com market commentary and insight to her audience. Offering a continuous flow of relevant treasury content, making treasury knowledge available, results in treasuryXL being the obvious go-to platform for its’ audience. The partnership kicks off with the new ‘Treasury Topic’ environment where XE.com will have a prominent role in the FX, risk management, payments and FinTech environment.

XE.com is the world’s most popular foreign exchange website, and a leading global destination for foreign exchange rate tools and data. XE Business Solutions support companies across the world with robust responses to unpredictable currency markets; whether they rely on XE for information about currency markets, seek support when managing their FX risk, or trust them with business-critical international payments.

treasuryXL and XE.com strive for a fruitful partnership where its’ audience are top of mind making sure that (potential) clients are always up to date with the latest global currency news and benefit from a comprehensive range of currency services and products. XE Business Solutions and currency expertise provide companies with robust responses to unpredictable currency markets, so that bottom line is protected by currency risk and not impacted by it.

About treasuryXL

treasuryXL started in 2016 as a community platform for everyone who is active in the world of treasury. Their extensive and highly qualified network consists out of experienced and aspiring treasurers. treasuryXL keeps their network updated with daily news, events and the latest treasury vacancies.

treasuryXL brings the treasury function to a higher level, both for the inner circle: corporate treasurers, bankers & consultants, as well as others that might benefit: CFO’s, business owners, other people from the CFO Team and educators.

treasuryXL offers:

  • professionals the chance to publish their expertise, opinions, success stories, distribute these and stimulate dialogue.
  • a labour market platform by creating an overview of vacancies, events and treasury education.
  • a variety of consultancy services in collaboration with qualified treasurers.
  • a broad network of highly valued partners and experts.

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

Financieringsstructuur: solide fundament of kaartenhuis?

| 12-01-2018 | Bianca van Zeventer |

Leningen worden vaak gezien als een goede manier om lange termijn investeringen te financieren. Een (gecommitteerde) meerjarige lening levert veelal zekerheid voor de middellange termijn. “Voor meerdere jaren vastgelegd” blijkt in de praktijk vaak niet waar te zijn. Leningen worden afgesloten als een aanvullende vorm van financieren, naast rekening courant, lease en/of andere leningen. Hoewel het aangaan van de meerjarige financiering ‘an sich’ niet heel risicovol hoeft te zijn, zijn de voorwaarden dit soms wel.

Elke vorm van financiering heeft zijn eigen voorwaarden. Aan de verschillende leningen worden specifieke voorwaarden toegevoegd. En dan zijn er nog de algemene (bank)voorwaarden.
Veel bedrijven nemen onterecht aan dat dit ‘standaardvoorwaarden’ zijn en er maar beperkte onderhandelingsruimte is.

De voorwaarden van de verschillende arrangementen spreken elkaar vaak tegen, zijn niet zoals beoogd en/of dienen niet het doel en het belang de onderneming.

Financiering in welke vorm dan ook blijkt vaak een kaartenhuis. In plaats van mooi gestapeld, zijn de arrangementen een domino met de eerste steen in handen van de kredietverlener.

Wanneer uw onderneming onverhoopt in zwaarder weer terecht komt, dan is het belangrijk dat het staat op een solide financieel fundament.
Voorkomen is beter dan genezen geldt hier ook. Beter vooral goed uit-onderhandeld dan later de financiering amenderen of herstructureren. Of zelfs geen keuze meer hebben. Uw bank of financier eenzijdig de mogelijkheid geven alle financieringen te herroepen of betaalbaar te stellen, biedt geen financiële stabiliteit.

Maar vaak blijken de verschillende voorwaarden zodanig in elk kaar te grijpen, dat dit wel het geval is.

Een FlexTreasurer met gespecialiseerde financieringskennis, kan u helpen een snelle scan te maken van uw financieringsstructuur, aanbevelingen doen voor aanpassingen en/of financieringsarrangementen namens u of samen met u (her)onderhandelen.

 

Bianca van Zeventer

Treasury and Finance Specialist / Owner of CuCoFin

 

 

MEER INFORMATIE

Wil je meer weten of iets anders over de diensten van Flex Treasurer of heb je een andere vraag?
Pieter de Kiewit helpt je graag verder.

 

How can treasurers use cryptocurrencies?

| 7-9-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

 

Recently I read a blog from Victoria Beckett published in GTNews, titled “How can treasurers use cryptocurrencies”.  Nowadays there are more than thousand different cryptocurrencies in circulation. The dollar value of the 20 biggest cryptocurrencies is around $ 150 billion. While cryptocurrencies soared to unknown levels, also the explosion in Initial Coin Offerings, or ICOs for funding purposes is evidence of their growing attraction. But are these cryptocurrencies suited for corporate treasuries.

Benefits

In her blog Victoria Beckett said that there are several benefits to treasurers using cryptocurrencies. These may bring various benefits including avoiding paying large transactions fees to banks, realising immediate payments and the ability for transactions to be kept open or private. According to her corporate treasury business no longer need to use mainstream financial regulatory frameworks. Cryptocurrencies could provide business with the ability to move assets outside of the normal banking regulatory framework.

She argued that one of the key benefits to making business payments using cryptocurrencies is that it cuts out banks in the transaction completely, avoiding large transaction fees, while “payments can also get transferred immediately anywhere in the world”.

Critics

But there were some critics as “banks have to trade off the operational benefits that the technology may provide against the added cost of needing to buy and sell a cryptocurrency to make a transaction.” “Therefore, the benefits are low when dealing with efficient ‘corridors’ such as US and Europe, but higher when transacting with Zimbabwe” David Putts.

Besides, there are a large number of different cryptocurrencies in circulation with different protocols etc. These are not interoperable/interchangeable.  So when using cryptocurrencies they at some point in time have to be transferred into fiat money. And that also costs money.

I also missed other use cases for corporate treasurers in the article. Just using cryptocurrencies payments would be a very limited use case, given the large number of other activities performed by corporate treasurers.

Risky business

When reading the article I got the impression that the risks of cryptocurrencies were rather  under estimated. Certain features of cryptocurrencies are not backed by any government, have no status as legal tender and rely on network protocols and cryptographic techniques to enable counterparties to transact. This may present various risks.
First of all cryptocurrency exchange platforms normally have no regulation. Thus there is no legal protection. And we have seen the various examples of hacking these exchanges with many people losing their money.
Second, virtual money is normally stored in a digital wallet on a computer. Though these wallets have passwords and key they are still valuable for hacking etc.
Third, there is no protection for funds under EU law when using cryptocurrencies as a means of payment. We still live in a largely fiat-money dominated world. So these cryptocurrencies had to be concerted one day into their own legal currency and that costs money.
Fourth, cryptocurrencies are very volatile. There is no guarantee that the cryptocurrencies will remain stable.  Cryptocurrencies currently lack a derivatives market, which makes them a risky medium for business contracts that last for any amount of timer, especially given their constant value fluctuations. This year for example the exchange rate of the bitcoin climbed from a low of 968 dollar to more than 3000, fell back to 1.800 six weeks ago and climbed to 5.000.
Fifth, due to the untraceable nature of cryptocurrencies, they provide a high degree of anonymity, making them vulnerable to misuse for criminal activities.

Action from regulators across the world

For some, it is a pro that cryptocurrencies in most countries are not regulated, such as for hackers and/or speculators.  That idea is however rapidly changing giving the risks associated. At a global level, there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity given the growth of the market.

All these risks mentioned above are prompting action from a growing number of jurisdictions.

Regulators in China have publicly announced that they will forbid the use of ICOs. And also regulators in other countries like Japan, Singapore, and the US are looking at ways to regulate. The SEC in the US has officially confirmed it was looking into regulation of cryptocurrency ICOs. The SEC is mainly concerned with the risks these ICOs pose. And Singapore will regulate ICO offerings that are deemed to be securities.

But also on a more broader scale Europa there is increased activity by regulators in Europe to reign in the use of crypto currencies. The EU Parliament is expected to pass measures soon to bring certain virtual currency service providers within their AML (anti money laundering) / CTF (counterfeiting) regulation. These measures do not seek to prevent the use of cryptocurrencies, but will require virtual currency service providers to implement customer due diligence measures.

Polish regulators are warning investors and banks to avoid dealing with digital currencies like bitcoin and ether. The regulators clarified that cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in Poland.

The Maltese regulatory watchdog (MFSA) also warned traders about the risks associated with the virtual currency. According to them a virtual currency is an unregulated digital instrument and is a form of money that is not equivalent to the national currencies. The MFSA however stressed that It does not (yet) regulate the acceptance of payment of service in regards to the virtual currencies.

Are central banks overcoming their reservations?

Central bankers, from Russia to China, Frankfurt and New York, are increasingly wary of the risks posed by these crypto currencies. I therefore question if central banks worldwide are overcoming their reservations versus cryptocurrencies and really come out in favour of the cryptocurrency.

The recent boom in cryptocurrencies and their underlying technology is becoming too big for central banks to ignore. The risk is that they are reacting too late to both the pitfalls and the opportunities presented by digital coinage.

Bitcoin and its peers pose a threat to the established money system by effectively circumventing it. CBs are well aware of losing control over the money supply, if they don’t react. A solution may be that CBs are issuing digital money themselves to maintain control. Various central banks worldwide are now experimenting with that idea.

Forward thinking

The attraction of virtual currencies is mainly for speculative reasons, rather than for corporates to facilitate treasury. Corporate treasuries are increasingly looking for centralisation of the treasury organisation away from decentralisation. They also are very much focused on reducing the various corporate risks including FX, short term interest rate, cross currency liquidity, etc.

And when it is regulated on a larger scale it is questionable if the described benefits of speed, efficiency or scalability attributed to the use of cryptocurrencies still will meet the costs associated .

The announcement by the Bank of China to put a halt on initial coin offerings or ICOs had a negative impact on the very volatile bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In one day it lost almost 15% of its value. The corporate treasurer however does not like volatility!

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

Bitcoin nieuws! De Splitsing!

| 4-9-2017 | Erna Erkens |

Wat is er gebeurd met de Bitcoin per 1 augustus? De Bitcoin is gesplitst! Ik zal het hieronder proberen uit te leggen. Ik voorspel u vast, het is niet eenvoudig. Na de vele discussies over de schaal van de digitale valuta Bitcoin, is er besloten om een ​​geheel nieuwe valuta te maken, de Bitcoin Cash. Het is wel een beetje ingewikkeld allemaal. Het is een resultaat van politieke, technologische en ideologische discussies over het laten groeien van de Bitcoin. Sommige deskundigen zeggen dat een hele nieuwe valuta,  genaamd Bitcoin Cash,  kan helpen om Bitcoin op grotere schaal toegankelijk te maken voor een grotere groep mensen.

De afgelopen tijd was er een strijd tussen concurrerende visies,” zegt Zaki Manain, een onafhankelijke cryptocurrency expert. Deze strijd is per 1 augustus voorlopig even gestreden. Om ervoor te zorgen dat de Bitcoin een eenvoudiger wereldwijd betalingssysteem wordt dat iedereen kan gebruiken, moet de Bitcoin over de groeipijn heen geholpen worden. Er is nu voor de oplossing gekozen om een ​​hele nieuwe valuta te maken met soortgelijke blockchain software.

Wat betekent dit nu?

Laat ik beginnen met te zeggen dat uitgeven van de Bitcoin moeilijk en ingewikkeld is.
Bitcoins zijn gebouwd op iets dat blockchain heet. De Bitcoin blockchain is een openbaar grootboek dat alle transactiegegevens bevat van iedereen die Bitcoins gebruikt. Transacties worden toegevoegd aan “blokken” ofwel de koppelingen van codes die een keten (blockchain) vormen. Elke transactie moet in een blok worden opgenomen. Maar deze blokken zijn vol en dit levert een grote vertraging op in de betalingen. Momenteel zijn er gemiddeld ongeveer 1.700 transacties die per Bitcoin block kunnen worden opgeslagen, bij ongeveer drie transacties per seconde, zegt specialist Manain. Dat is niet heel veel. (Visa, bijvoorbeeld, handelt duizenden transacties per seconde).
Omdat de Bitcoin blockchain te druk wordt, kan het gebeuren dat iemand iets betaalt met een Bitcoin, maar dat het heel lang duurt voordat de betaling goedgekeurd wordt. Het verschil is de grootte van de betalingsblokken. De originele Bitcoin heeft blokken van 1 MB die snel vollopen met opdrachten, waardoor het verwerken van betalingen veel tijd kost. En dus duurt het lang voordat de partij waar de betaling aan verricht wordt kan zien dat hij/zij het geld ontvangen heeft. Dat is niet goed voor het vertrouwen. Bij Bitcoin Cash zijn de blokken 8 x zo groot, waarmee de betalingen veel sneller kunnen worden uitgevoerd. Er is ook een poging gedaan om dit probleem op te lossen door een regelwijziging toe te passen op de software. Deze werd genoemd: “Segregated Witness” (gescheiden getuigen. SegWit2X). De regelwijziging zou mensen in staat stellen om meer transacties op elk blok te zetten. Dit wordt in technische termen een “soft fork” genoemd. Sorry, ik kan er ook niks aan doen.  Dit zou niet hoeven leiden tot een hele nieuwe cryptocurrency. Deze nieuwe regel zou moeten worden ingevoerd in november. Dit vergroot de grootte van de software van 1 MB naar 2MB. Voor sommigen was dit niet genoeg. Daarom een tweede Bitcoin: De Bitcoin Cash.

Wat is de Bitcoin Cash?

De Bitcoin Cash is een zogenaamde “hard fork” (sorry, ik heb het niet bedacht). De makers zorgen voor een volledig nieuwe software, die het aantal transacties per blok acht keer groter maakt ( 4 x na SegWit2x). Geen idee hoe dit precies werkt. Dit betekent dat Bitcoin Cash transacties veel sneller kunnen worden verwerkt. Bitcoin Cash is niet hetzelfde als de “normale” Bitcoin. Op 1 augustus was een eenheid van Bitcoin Cash USD 240 waard. De echte Bitcoin was toen meer dan USD 2.700 waard.
Bitcoin Cash valt of staat met het vertrouwen van de markt, net als de gewone Bitcoin. Het zal alleen succesvol worden als mensen vaak beslissen om de blokken voor de Bitcoin Cash blockchain te creëren (minen of vinden, zoals u wilt). Het eerste blok is aangemaakt dinsdag 1 augustus.

Hieronder het koersverloop van de Bitcoin Cash tegen de USD van de eerste week:

Wat het betekent voor consumenten en bedrijven?

Voor iedere “oude” Bitcoin die u bezit, bezit u ook een Bitcoin Cash. Echter, niet alle Bitcoin-uitwisselingsplaatsen (de plek waar mensen hun bitcoin opslaan, waar je je Bitcoin wallet hebt een soort van Bitcoin portemonnaie) zullen Bitcoin Cash accepteren. U krijgt alleen Bitcoin Cash erbij als u zelf  uw Bitcoins beheert of als u bij een Bitcoin Cash-vriendelijke Bitcoinbeurs zit.
Dit kan een belemmering zijn voor de wereldwijde acceptatie van de Bitcoin Cash. En om Bitcoin Cash te gebruiken voor gewone transacties zoals koffie kopen, zullen bedrijven het moeten accepteren, ongeacht of ze de gewone Bitcoin al accepteren of niet. De toekomst zal uitwijzen of dit gebeurd of niet.  “Dit hele proces zal ons veel informatie geven over hoe we in deze toekomst met deze systemen omgaan,” zegt Manain. “Het zal een blauwdruk zijn voor toekomstige ontwikkelingen in de wereld van cryptocurrencies op basis van blockchain. We gaan hier heel veel van leren.
De vraag blijft: welke versie gaan de miners ondersteunen? Bitcoin-miners zetten de enorme rekenkracht van hun computers in voor het ‘ontdekken’ van nieuwe bitcoins. Om dat te kunnen  doen zijn ze verplicht om betalingsopdrachten te verifiëren. Zo fungeren ze als verwerkers van de Bitcoin betalingen en zijn dus essentieel voor een betrouwbaar systeem.
Het is mogelijk dat alle Bitcoin-miners overstappen naar de nieuwe versie, waardoor de oude variant niet meer functioneel is omdat er dan niemand meer is om de opdrachten te controleren. Maar de kans bestaat ook dat alleen maar een deel van de miners overstapt. Dan ontstaan er dus zelfs drie versies van de Bitcoin. Het is nog niet klaar met de Bitcoin ontwkkeling.

Hieronder nog het koersverloop van de “gewone” Bitcoin tegen de USD van de afgelopen maand:

Als u vragen heeft hoor ik het graag. Alles rond Bitcoins is flink ingewikkeld. Ik weet niet of ik meteen de antwoorden weet, maar ik ga er in ieder geval naar op zoek.

Erna Erkens

 

Erna Erkens

Owner at Erna Erkens Valuta Advies (EEVA)

 

Trump’s determination to protect American business

| 14-8-2017 | Rob Beemster |

 

Many negative issues surround the President of the United States.  Approval rating hits new low,  surprise on his erratic conduct seems to grow daily. Trump is a unique politician. He is incomparable to any other western political leader. I want to pinpoint his monetary policy in 2017, by looking at the pattern of the dollar so far this year.

The dollar in 2017

Currency pair             January 2017              August 2017               Relative decrease USD

EUR/USD                    1.05                            1.18                            12.4%

AUD/USD                    0.72                            0.80                            11.1%

GBP/USD                    1.22                            1.32                            8.2%

USD/JPY                      1.18                            1.10                            6.8%

USD/CNY                    6.96                            6.70                            3.7%

Maybe Mr Trump does have a foreign economic policy.

He sees the results of Chinese manipulation and soft American response as an unfair trade relationship. The President of the US must do something about these unbalances. At least, this is how Trump judges.

Let’s take into account this Potus is a streetfighter. Long bilateral meetings with the Chinese are not options for Trump. Fast and furious, that it is: Bring the dollar down!!
And this is going on for half a year now. It is going the Trump way. Tough (but efficient)!

How to see the future value of the dollar?

The current outlook for the dollar against its main trading relations is related to some issues:

–          Process of QE by ECB, and  Euro interest rates

–          North Korea

–          China’s position in this geopolitical stress

–          Economic conditions of the US

–          Economic conditions of the main trading partners of the US

These are very important to determine the future value of the dollar. But this is the holistic view, we are all used to. Let’s be flexible and take a different stance. Just conclude as Trump will do. Be his alter ego.Then the most important issues are:

–          Pattern of the Euro against the dollar and the bilateral trade balance between US and Germany

–          China’s reaction to a lower dollar

–          US trade balance

–          US corporates repatriation of overseas cash

–          US investments to produce within America

–          FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in America

This is a totally different scope. If we want to understand Trump, then we have to use his view on the international arena. The above mentioned bullet points are crucial. All can easily be measured, Trump loves that. I would like to go through these points to be able to clarify the possible outcome of the dollar for the coming time.

Pattern of the Euro against the dollar and the bilateral trade balance between US and Germany

The more than 12% revaluation will have a serious impact on the trade balance between US and Germany. When the correction emerges, Trump might temper his view on Germany. When we notice correction in the trade data, the dollar has gone far enough…

China’s reaction to a lower dollar

So far the yuan has gained some territory but not as much as other major currencies rose against the dollar. How will PBOC and the Chinese Government react on Trump’s wishes to correct the trade balance by a devaluation of the dollar against the yuan? If they take action on Trump’s stated requirements, whatever this may be, then pressure may diminish.

US trade balance

For many years the US  faces a deficit on its trade balance. The more than $500 billion yearly shortage is a notable pain point. If a remarkable achievement can be noticed on short term, a more relaxed dollar attitude may be expected.

US corporates repatriation of overseas cash

In history, attempts have been organised by US governments to return overseas cash of US corporations. During President Bush jr Presidency, corporations did repatriate cash. When Trump does decrease the corporate tax tariff to  15% and he rewards the US corps to transfer their money back to the US without any other penalty payments, a large repatriation may get going. Many of these funds will until now be held in local currencies, so a switch to the dollar may occur.

US corps return back to America

Trump has ordered US companies to produce in the US instead of overseas. If he becomes successful by bringing factories back to the US, the trade balance will shift, employment will improve. Also when large repatriation is done, these funds can be invested in local factories.

FDI in America

Many non-US corporations are scared by the threat of the US government that regulations like import tariffs and other taxes may be charged on imports. It will damage the advantage corporations have experienced last couple of years due to the high dollar. If special import tariffs are installed, investments may be done in the US to avoid these special expenditures. Onshore producing on American soil will become an alternative.

How to manage this?

Foreign currency management has always been a hard part of the international business. Currency moves are unpredictable. But since Trump, one has to be aware of non-economic issues as well. Note that all the above mentioned issues can have effect on the value of the dollar. Professional guidance of your flows is becoming more and more important. Barcelona valuta experts helps you to install a decent strategy to counter unpredicted events. We guide you in protecting the cash flow.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

Bitcoins or banks, who is taking care of the business?

| 2-8-2017 | Hans de Vries |

Banks have long been target of wild spread ideas that their role as facilitator in the (inter) national money transaction industry will soon be overtaken by new Fintech initiatives like PayPal, Bitcoin and recently Ethereum. The idea behind these new technologies is that the Trusted Third Party (TTP) role of the conventional banks which is crucial for the operational day to day operations of the economic systems can be overtaken by the new block chain technology. Main advantages are clear: transactions are no longer limited by timing (no dependency on the operational boundaries of clearing houses, cut-off times of banks per currency, immediate processing etc), account opening procedures at the banks, the costs involved in maintaining accounts and transactions themselves etc.

The recent Ransomware attacks, that had an enormous impact on numerous companies and governmental institutions at a global level, showed however a less favorable aspect of this new technology. Due to its lack of control on the specifics of account ownership, Bitcoin proved to be the ideal means to collect the ransom money the victims have to pay to free their systems. This piracy trend will in my view also seriously hamper the future development of these sort of bank independent transaction mechanisms. Even more threatening for the Bitcoin development are the recent crypto robbery cases in which millions of dollars’ worth balances were stolen from the accounts. These incidents show the vital role of the banks as TTP since most banks are obliged to deliver their services according to the rules and regulations of their national and super-national banks. As indicated before, this means that for opening accounts lots of formalities have to be endured (the KYC rules are in some countries stretched to the absolute max). At the same time., due to the international regulations the control on international transactions are very extensive and therefore at the same time very costly for the banks. Every violation of the international code book on transactions to banned countries can have severe financial consequences for the banks involved. An last but not least banks have to maintain an international network of correspondent banks to make sure that the international transactions reach their beneficiaries in a reasonable timeframe and at reasonable costs.

This whole system has of course been developed to gain maximum control on transaction flows locally and worldwide. However it also provides the trust needed to be able to deal with (inter) national trade flows crucial to our economic day to day operations. As long as there are no ways to secure your transactions and balances in a bitcoin like environment as most transaction banks are providing today, Bitcoins remain a very interesting technological experience but will in no way replace the role of banks as TTP shortly.

 

 

Hans de Vries

Treasury/Cash Management Consultant

 

 

More articles of this author: 

Will the European banks strike back?

The Euro from a treasury perspective

New norms in banking: More than 30 new areas emerging. Pick your fights!

Trade Finance – funding your imports and exports

|28-6-2017 | Vincenzo Masile | treasuryXL |

 

You might visit this site, being a treasury professional with years of experience in the field. However you could also be a student or a businessman wanting to know more details on the subject, or a reader in general, eager to learn something new. The ‘Treasury for non-treasurers’ series is for readers who want to understand what treasury is all about. Our expert Vincenzo Masile tells us more about trade finance products.

 

Trade finance instruments

International and domestic trade is highly complex and involves a web of intricate risks. Trade finance instruments are available to deliver fast, efficient, reliable and comprehensive solutions for every stage of a company’s trade value chain to support their foreign trade activities.
Trade finance products can be combined and shaped into a custom-built product that helps reduce company’s risks and will enable the business to flourish.

Innovative tailored short, medium and long-term trade finance solutions enable banks to meet their corporate and financial institutions client’s global import and export needs in a timely, efficient, risk adverse manner.
Trade finance products include letters of credit, documentary collections and bank guarantees. With a letter of credit (also known as a documentary credit), the buyer’s bank guarantees payment to the seller if certain criteria are met. Documentary collections, just as letters of credit, reduce the payment risks on international trade transactions, and with a bank guarantee company obligations to third parties are ensured. All these products offer security and protection against risks if an international trade transaction does not go as planned.

Funding and security

Importers and exporters can also use a letter of credit to obtain financing. An exporter, for instance, can obtain funding from his local bank to manufacture the goods as this bank is assured that payment will follow when the documents are presented under the credit.

In summary, it is not difficult to see the potential complexity of the arrangements on offer and the variety of ways in which they can be beneficial to a company. It is paramount, however, to work with a bank that fully understands the financial instruments available and their protocols and applicability in the overseas markets. Given this, trade finance and cash management are powerful tools for business growth and momentum.

Vincenzo Masile

Treasury Expert/Credit Risk Manager