Global Political Risks by ICC Consultants

| 15-10-2018 | ICC Consultants | treasuryXL |

In deze blog worden de internationale politieke ontwikkelingen geanalyseerd die impact kunnen gaan hebben op de financiële markten en de mate waarin. De visie van ICC Consultants is gebaseerd op een groot netwerk binnen de wereldwijd toon-aangevende researchhuizen en 40 jaar ervaring in de financiële markten. Middels de weblink onderaan deze blog kunt u meerdere rapporten van ICC Consultants downloaden.

 

Iranian brake vs Saudi and Russian spigots

US president Trump has been trying to have his oil cake and eat it. On the one hand, the mercurial leader has been tightening the screws on Iran thereby keeping hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil from the market. On the other hand, the American president has been ripping into oil producers for being responsible – in his eyes – for high prices: “We protect the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices! We will remember. The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!” Trump’s Russian counterpart Putin said last week: “We had a very good meeting with President Trump in Helsinki. But if we had talked about [oil], I would tell him that if he wants to find the culprit for the surge in prices, ‘Donald, then you need to look in the mirror.’”

The main question keeping  oil traders and analysts at wake these days: will the fall in Iranian exports be compensated by Saudi Arabia and Russia pumping up more crude or will we see an impending supply crunch cause a further spike in the oil price? Already, Brent’s fifth consecutive quarterly increase  makes it the longest streak since 2008.  The magical $100 mark is getting mentioned more and more . September 2014 was the last time when Brent hit this level. US petrol prices have already been at the highest level since 2014 for quite some time.

November 4 is the US sanctions deadline for companies to stop buying Iranian oil. In anticipation of that cutoff date, Iranian oil exports have already fallen considerably. In June crude shipments from Iran totaled about 2.3 million barrels per day; last month those exports came to 1.5 mb/d.

Expectations for how much oil will be lost have steadily risen. Some analysts now even fear that Iranian exports could fall back all the way towards 500,000 b/d. Already, shipments to South Korea, France and Japan have halted.

Secret shortcuts?

The Economist Intelligence Unit describes six ways in which Teheran could and will try to keep crude flowing:

  • Diplomacy: For example, Iran could offer China concessions when it comes to Beijing’s massive Belt and Road Initiative in return for a promise by the Chinese to keep buying Iranian crude. India wants to tighten its grip on the Iranian port of Chabahar. India has already committed significant political and diplomatic resources to the project, which it hopes will counter Pakistan’s Gwadar port, in which China has a significant stake.
  • Ghost tankers: During previous rounds of sanctions Teheran still managed to get quite some oil out by ducking the roaming eye of Washington through turning off the system that allows traders to track the movements of tankers. Iran has already started with this tactic and most experts believe that Teheran has a fleet of ghost ships carrying oil and no longer sending out tracking signals.
  • Cut prices: In August it became clear that Iran is offering discounts to its Asian customers. The regime could broaden the number of countries it is proposing these rebates to and it could bump up the discounts.
  • Private sector: Iran could try and sell its oil on the Iranian bourse with the buyers then being allowed to export the crude oil.
  • Trading in other currencies than the dollar: Teheran is trying to convince other nations to do deals in local currencies instead of the dollar. In this way, it could be able to circumvent American sanctions (which aim to punish financial institutions facilitating Iranian trade).
  • Barter deals: the other way to avoid doing business in dollars. By trading goods for goods Iran could resume the scheme that it used to try to blunt the impact of previous sanctions between 2012 and 2016. Iran would probably accept agricultural products and medical equipment in exchange for its crude.

 Through these various methods Iran will be able to at least get some oil out to customers. However, from next month onwards, the number of barrels Teheran manages to export will no doubt decrease further.

No end in sight

A deal between the US and Iran is nowhere close as the International Court of Justice ruled against Washington in a case brought by Teheran whereby the judges ruled that the US is breaking the 1955 Treaty of Amity. Washington has replied by not accepting the ruling but by claiming it will withdraw from the treaty. Moreover, over at Washington the so-called NOPEC Act  is getting a fresh look. This bill would remove the sovereign immunity that has long shielded OPEC members from legal action by the Americans. A version of NOPEC had managed to make it through Congress in 2007, but it was pulled after then president Bush threatened to veto it. This time also, the bill probably won’t make it, but it nevertheless makes clear that tensions between the US and (other) oil producers are on the rise. Another example of this is the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA), which allows victims of the 9/11 attacks to sue Riyadh. The law is seen as key to why state-run Saudi Aramco was hesitant in publicly listing its shares on US markets in an IPO that has since been shelved.

In Iran, the political class and the mullahs could be prompted to continue their hardline by the results of a recent poll in which large majorities declare their support for the country’s current foreign policy.

Swing producers to the rescue?

It remains to be seen whether other suppliers will fill in the gap caused by the Iranian crisis. By this time, Saudi Arabia is producing at levels that amount to its highest on record: 10.7 mb/d. Some experts doubt whether the kingdom will be able to significantly raise its production numbers.

 

Russia is also closing in on its maximum production level, due to – among other things – the lack of international capital flowing in to finance domestic energy projects and the challenges importing essential equipment caused by sanctions Russia faces as a result of among other things its actions in Ukraine and Georgia and its spy adventures all over the west. Russia’s deputy energy minister claims that current potential for upping production is around 200,000-300,000 b/d up to the end of 2019 from the current level. Already, Russian oil production has risen to a post-Soviet record of 11.4 mb/d.

The other giant producer, the US itself, struggles with infrastructure bottlenecks. Drillers in the western parts of Texas have put too much pressure on the regions infrastructure. Thereby driving up costs and putting downward pressure on the price for a barrel of oil; if you don’t have the means of turning the crude to practical usage, the oil obviously becomes less valuable. The more so since pipelines are also in desperate need of upgrades and extensions.

The more Saudis and others pump up to compensate for Iranian (and for example Venezuelan) shortfalls, the more spare capacity disappears and the more already lingering doubts about how much more the big players can add to their production levels will build up.

Slowing world economy

Considering all of the above, it seems upward pressure on oil prices from the supply side is the most likely in the months to come. What about the demand side? According to BP, oil consumption in the developed markets has peaked. Therefore higher demand in the future will largely depend on the emerging markets. As Bloomberg columnist David Fickling put it: “When they sneeze, the global oil market may yet catch a cold.” And a cold seems to be doing the rounds lately within the EM. Fickling points out that for EM oil is already as expensive as it was during the peak in 2008. This as a result of the slump many EM currencies find themselves in. For example, the oil price in reals broke its 2008 record last March and is now 50% higher than its level ten years ago. So, from this perspective, we could see some downward pressure on oil prices as crude is simply becoming too expensive for many nations.

In addition, general economic worries are on the rise as IMF chief Lagarde attested to last week when see said: “For most countries, it has become more difficult to deliver on the promise of greater prosperity, because the global economic weather is beginning to change.” So as global financial conditions are becoming less forgiving – with rising interest rates, a strengthening dollar etc – high crude prices are inflicting even more pain on oil importing emerging countries in particular. They see their current account deficits growing. Usually you would expect a depreciation of the currency of such a country resulting in more exports that would make up for the increased costs of buying oil. Not now: growth of world trade is slowing and many of these countries have high dollar debts that have become a major burden due to the strong dollar.

So demand side constraints are building up. In the short term supply side risks i.e. the kicking in of sanctions against Iran could drive the prices up a bit more, but world economic growth is to slow in 2019 and together with overly bullish long positions outnumbering bearish short ones by a ratio of more than 12:1 (the record was 14:1 back in April) we expect demand side factors to overtake worries about the supply side and causing a pullback of Brent towards $70-$80 levels in the months to quarters ahead.

Chart-technical analysis

A large upward trend is already dominant since early 2016. Objective measures of trend direction – the price is above both the upward sloping 50-day and 200-day moving average – indicate the same. As such, the level of $89 – the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the multi-year decline from 2014 – is the minimal technical target in the coming weeks and months.

Still, bear in mind that past weeks’ strong gains have left Brent crude oil very stretched as it is trading around two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average. Also, the 14-day Relative Strength index has reached overbought levels (above 70) that, in the past quarters, were accompanied by at least – temporary – top forming (see graph). All the above will likely set the stage at least a sideways consolidation or a pullback first to digest these strong gains.

Furthermore, market sentiment towards the oil complex is highly positive. For example, the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) showed a vast amount of bulls (> 90%) for WTI crude oil last week. Moreover, the Commitment of Traders report shows that hedge funds & other speculators are still holding rather large net-long positions in both Brent and WTI crude oil. Such optimism also makes oil vulnerable for a setback. If so, we can expect a decline towards short-term support in Brent just above $80. Finally, prices below $80 to a significant degree will likely trigger a larger correction towards the next support area near $72.

Het rapport is geschreven door Andy Langenkamp, politiek analist bij ICC Consultants. Op de website van
ICC Consultants kunt u meer rapporten downloaden.

Corporate Trade Finance Products : Letter of Credit

| 11-10-2018 | by Nijay Gupta | treasuryXL |

What is Letter of Credit/Documentary Credit under UCP 600 – ICC  Paris:

A letter of Credit is a sort of Guarantee issued by a Bank – Opening Bank, on behalf of a buyer(applicant) favouring the seller (Beneficiary) to honour the  compliant documents presented thru a Bank (negotiating bank) in terms of the LC conditions. In order to secure payment, the Supplier of goods is given a sort of guarantee by the buyer’s bank to pay (at Sight or Usance or Deferred Payment) on presentation of Documents in terms of LC.  So, the LC can provide payment on Sight Basis, Usance Basis or Deferred Payment Basis, based on the Terms of Payment agreed between Supplier & Buyer. The buyer/Opener of the LC is assured Delivery of Goods within the dates of shipment mentioned in the LC.

LC is also known as Documentary Credit, as banks deals in documents and not in goods.

The LC is governed by the UCP 600 (2007) Revision publication by ICC, Paris, provides the set of rules governing LC in Domestic/International Trade in almost all 175 countries. The 39 Articles of UCP 600, gives the details of the various types of LC’s, role/rights/liabilities of various parties i.e.

  • Opener/Applicant (buyer),
  • Beneficiary (seller),
  • Issuing Bank (buyer’s bank),

Advising Bank (Correspondent bank of the LC issuing bank), may act as LC Transferring or Negotiating Bank too for the availability of LC for Negotiation leads to be known as : Restricted LC or LC avaialable with…. Bank

Negotiating Bank (Generally Sellers Bank),

Re-imbursing Bank (generally overseas correspondent bank, where the LC issuing bank maintains its Nostro a/c).

The articles also provide the way various Documents like Bill of exchange, Invoices, Cerifiticate of Origin, BL/AWB, Inspection Certificate, Insurance Policy etc to be preapred and presented to the LC Issuring bank for Payment (Sight document), Acceptance & Payment (Usance/Deferred Payment documents).

What are the various Types of Documentary Credit:

Irrevocable:  The LC, which can not be cancelled/amended without the consent of all the parties to the LC, is the most common type of LC is used in Domestic/International Trade. In this, the LC issuing bank guarantees the payment of LC as per the Tenor of the Documents on presentation of compliant documents to the beneficiary..  This is the  most common type of LC is used in domestic/international Trade. All types of LC’s are Irrevocable, unless a bank issues Revocable LC, specifically. UCP discussed only about issuing of Irrevocable LC, though the banks can issue Revocable LC or combination of other types of LC as below.

Revocable LC, (which could be cancelled by LC issuing Bank or Applicant without the consent of Beneficiary before the shipment is made) is not in practice and not provided in UCP 600, though the same can still be established by the LC Issuing bank at the request of the Applicant. Irrevocable Confirmed:  In this type of LC, the Payment Guarantee is given by LC Advising or a Bank nominated by LC issuing Bank . The bank adding confirmation to the LC is done only at the request of LC issuing bank and the Conforming bank can be in the country of exporter or elsewhere. Since this type of LC requires payment of confirmation charges by the Beneficiary, the use of this type of LC is restricted in case of Geo-political conditions in the buyer country or high risk buyer only.

Irrevocable Transferable: The LC which can be transferred by the Advising Bank at the request of Beneficiary, in part/full or for lesser amount by keeping the profit for the beneficary of LC.  Once LC is Transferred, it can not be transferred back to Benficiary of LC.  Under this, the LC Transferring bank is the only bank authorised to Negotiate/Pay for documents over and above the LC opening bank

Irrevocable Confirm:   LC can be confirmed by a bank in Beneficiary’s Country (generally done by LC Advising bank) or by a bank in other country, when beneficiary is not very sure about the standing of the LC issuing bank or Geo-political situation in buyer’s country. LC is confirmed at the request of LC issuing bank and Confirming bank may ask beneficiary to pay for the confirming charges.  On presentation of documents, confirming bank shall becoming like LC issuing bank and is bound to pay/accept documents, as per LC conditions.

Irrevocable Back to Back:  Its not provided in UCP but its used by Beneficiary for opening another/local LC backed by the Original LC on same terms and conditions to provide security for payment for supply of goods to the origianl beneficiary .

Irrevocable Revolving:  This type of LC provides flexiblity of Re-instating the amount of the LC, on utilisation of the LC amount by exporting the goods as per terms of LC.  This type of LC is usefull, for exports of different goods at different period without committing the total value of all exports in one LC. This reduces the requirement of lower LC limit or Cash margin for opening of the LC by applicant (importer).

Irrevocable Stand-By LC:  This was inititated at the time when US banks were not authorised to Issue Guarnatees or take Guarantees .  But this is very popolus amongst the suppliers of goods and services in today’s time all over the world.  This type of LC, provides a guarantee to the supplier of services, equipments, airlines etc to be paid on completion of the serives or agreed time period.  Its very common in Airlines and Equipment suppliers on lease or rental basis.

Which type of LC is desirable in Domestic & International Trade:

An Irrevocable LC is quite fine, which allows payment on compliance with the LC terms and this also allows surety of shipment by exporters within the terms mentioned in the LC, though there is no guarantee of quality of goods being supplied by the exporters.  That is why Banks say, Bank Deal in Documents and not in Goods and its known as documentary credit.

Should there be a Geo-political situation in the LC issuing bank’s country or the standing of the LC issuing bank can not be established, its better to go for a Confirmed LC.  Other types of LC’s are practiced based on the requirement of Importer and Exporters in Trade.  LC can have a combination of types of LC together too and i.e. Why LC is the most flexible instrument used in Domestic and International Trade.

What Importer (Applicant) should do before opening LC:

  1. Get the detailed report of the Supplier from their banks interms of their Standing, Line of business, other business dealings, sanctions on the country etc
  2. The previous experiences of others with the supplier & Country Risks, or Sanctions
  3. Get the lines set-up by the Bank for opening of the LC
  4. Apply to bank for Issuing LC along-with Proforma Invoice or Confirmed Order
  5. After bank’s issuing LC, ensure, LC is recieved by the Supplier with same terms of Proforma Invoice or confirm order

What Exporter (Beneficiary) should do on receipt of LC:

  1. check all the terms & conditions of LC as per Proforma Invoice or confirm order.
  2. Check Incoterms and Terms of Payment
  3. Check the names of various parties, goods, addresses, requirements of shipments, Incoterms, LC payment terms, Inspection Certitificate, Certificate of Origin, Insurance & other special documents requirments like Weight/analysis/Packing Certificates etc.
  4. Get the LC confirmed, if the same was desired and the same has been requested by the LC issuing bank to the LC advising bank
  5. Get the LC amended, in case exporter can not comply with any conditions or terms of LC
  6. Meanwhile, the exporter can start with Manufacturing or arranging for the goods for shipment
  7. Can request for fixing lines and ask ask for Pre-shipment and Post shipment finance against LC and presentation of documents
  8. Exporters should ensure compliance of all terms and conditions of LC, before presentation of documents for payment/acceptance by the Negotiating or LC issuing bank to get protection under UCP 600 of ICC, Paris

What is the future of LC in view of E-Banking and Online business/trade:

Though most of the business is overtaken by online operators, the need for LC shall continue at least for next 25 years.  In order to get well worsed with LC, I suggest all to read articles UCP 600 of ICC, Paris and practice with various types of LC, rights & responsibilities of the LC Issuing Bank, Advising Bank, Negotiating Bank, applicant, Beneficiary & Confirming/Re-mbursing/Transferring banks etc in usage.

 

 

Nijay Gupta

Founder & CEO NK GUPTA Consulting

 

 

Booklet “Treasury for Non Treasurers” developed jointly with the Hogeschool Utrecht

| 09-10-2018 | treasuryXL |

 


All active in corporate treasury regularly get the question what his/her job is about. For laymen, treasury seems complex, magical, elusive. I assume that this is recognizable to many in the field. Providing a compact, clear explanation is no easy task. This gave us the idea to create a booklet “treasury for non treasurers” and make this available through various channels. Our objective in this in three lines is:

A well-structured, compact text that laymen offers an introduction to corporate treasury. This will be printed in a handy booklet, will be downloadable as a PDF and will be published in sections on www.treasuryXL.com in a blog form.

The students of the University of Applied Sciences Utrecht who, obtain the Minor Treasury Management, will write the chapters, divided over various themes that cover treasury as well as possible. The students will be supervised by people from the field. The production of the booklet will be managed by the community manager of treasuryXL. Editorial support will be provided by the Hogeschool Utrecht. The blogs and PDF’s will be published on the website of treasuryXL.

The booklet can be sponsored by companies that are product and/or service providers to the corporate treasury community. Both treasuryXL and Treasurer Search already stepped to the plate. The sponsors will carry the out-of-pocket expenses for the production of the booklet, mainly printing. In return they will receive a number of copies. The expected costs for one booklet are estimated at €1,-.

The supervisors will be field experts with an interest in helping young students. They can be independent, but also employees of the above mentioned sponsors. They are expected to have two (telephone) meetings with one or two students and comment on their input, being blogs / chapters.

Please let us know if you are interested in becoming a supervisor and/or sponsor. We look forward working with you,

Roy Baaten
Community Manager
[email protected] / (06) 21 30 37 44

 

 

Treasurer Test development: huge investment, great result!

| 03-10-2018 | by treasuryXL |

It all started a few years ago. The desire to better assess corporate treasurers led to a group of us wanting to build a test that did not exist yet. Together with various experts we invested time, money and expertise.

First, a project team was put together and Merel van Geel was appointed project leader. Other team members have a background in education, science, corporate treasury, assessment psychology, IT and treasury recruitment. Quite a diverse group! The goal of this project group was to investigate whether the concept could lead to a feasible business plan.

We quickly found that the cost of the software and its customization plays a vital role in this plan. The software should be able to test both personality as well as treasury knowledge, be able to work with various peer groups, include sound statistical research methods and generate reports. It should have a client friendly interface. In a few months, many systems were tested and demos have been viewed. After long consideration and negotiations, a software manufacturer was chosen that already developed tests and could be integrated into our treasuryXL existing software. This manufacturer has many universities and other research institutes as their client.

In parallel various personality models were considered. As the Big Five model is widely accepted, well known and, different from many others, accepted in academic circles, that is the model we chose. The Big Five assessment that is integrated in the Treasurer Test is offered by other parties separately and integrated in our solution. In other blogs we will elaborate on the model.

A team of experts from the Hogeschool Utrecht and the Vrije Universiteit took it upon them to develop a library of questions in various treasury sub categories and complexity level. The Test holds a lot more questions than the average candidate will answer.

Integration of various components was led by Merel and the results were screened by an advisory board that, together with a group of close friends were the first ones to do the Test for the first time. In parallel, we started to expand the treasuryXL website so that the test could be integrated and you can place and pay your order. Components such as a logo and a GDPR privacy statement were developed. Finally, the report of the Treasurer Test was designed, developed from the various above described components..

At this moment we are further testing the results. A selection of testee candidates has been made to fill the peer groups which are essential in the concept of the Treasurer Test. After the test has been made by these persons and feedback has been processed, the test will become available. We are very excited about this and will keep you up-to-date!

Roy Baaten – Community Manager at TreasuryXL

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Partnership Cashforce and BNP Paribas

| 03-10-2018 | Cashforce | treasuryXL |

BNP Paribas and Cashforce enter into a partnership to offer digital cash flow forecasting and working capital services to corporate treasurers. Through this partnership, BNP Paribas will offer to its clients Cashforce’s next-generation digital cash forecasting and treasury management solutions, focused on analytics, automation and integration. To further extend its commitment to this partnership, BNP Paribas also invested in Cashforce.

Pursuing the digitalisation of its Corporate clients’ user experience, BNP Paribas today announced it has sealed a partnership with Cashforce, a Fintech company that will allow the Bank to enhance client journeys within cash management and trade finance. Through this partnership, Corporates will experiment a digital, autonomous and cross-banking solution for their day to day transaction banking needs: by connecting its treasury department with other business and finance departments, and by offering full transparency into the cash flow drivers, accurate and automated cash flow forecasting and treasury reporting.

BNP Paribas continues to invest in its digital offering to treasurers and this partnership – which brings the transaction banking business another step closer to open banking – reflects its technology-centric focus and leadership. The platform is unique in its category because of the seamless integration with numerous ERP systems and financial data sources, the ability to drill down the transaction level details, and the intelligent AI-based simulation engine that enables multiple cash flow scenarios, forecasts and impact analyses.

“This partnership with Cashforce marks a new step in our digital transformation and illustrates our commitment to offering our clients the best-in-class solutions they deserve, wherever they come from. Forming agile partnerships with innovative Fintechs like Cashforce, who leverage new technologies such as AI, helps us to significantly accelerate the digitalisation of our customer journey in the area of transaction banking,” commented Jacques Levet, Head of Transaction Banking EMEA BNP Paribas.

“The partnership with BNP Paribas will further boost our international expansion and make more treasury departments work with accurate, efficient and best-in-class cash flow analytics and cash forecasting solutions. Also our working capital analytics engine will further strengthen the integrated banking and trade finance experience for BNP Paribas’s clients.”  added Nicolas Christiaen, CEO of Cashforce.

The platform will be available to clients through CENTRIC, BNP Paribas’ integrated digital banking platform that gives corporate & institutional actors instant access to the spectrum of BNP Paribas’ online financial services.

The full article can be read on the Cashforce website.

BNP Paribas also posted an article about the partnership which can be found here: https://group.bnpparibas/en/press-release/bnp-paribas-cashforce-enter-partnership-offer-digital-cash-flow-forecasting-working-capital-services-corporate-treasurers


Cashforce – Cash forecasting & Smart Treasury

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Masterclass Blockchain

| 01-10-2018 | treasuryXL |

Samen met IJsselvliet Strategie & Realisatie organiseert The Perfect Fit op donderdag 11 oktober 2018 een Masterclass over het thema blockchain.

Blockchain wordt gezien als de grootste IT-revolutie sinds de opkomst van het internet. Traditionele transacties worden door deze technologische ontwikkeling sneller, veiliger en transparanter: blockchain kan voor de revolutie in de 21e eeuw gaan zorgen!

De blockchain is de onderliggende technologie van de cryptovaluta bitcoin. Maar er zijn veel meer toepassingen dan cryptovaluta. De disruptieve kracht van de blockchain-technologie blijft niet beperkt tot de financiële wereld. Zo kunnen bijvoorbeeld eigendomsregistraties in de toekomst via blockchain worden beheerd. Dergelijke toepassingen zullen aanzienlijke gevolgen hebben voor de positie van makelaars, overheden, onderwijsinstellingen, controllers, toezichthouders, juristen, notarissen en accountants. Dat blockchain voor grote veranderingen gaat zorgen en aanzienlijke gevolgen zal hebben, is een feit.

Tijdens deze middag gaan we met elkaar op verkenning over de (on)mogelijkheden van de blockchain en de consequenties met toepassing op organisaties. Na een eenvoudige uitleg wat het is en waarom het mogelijk disruptief kan zijn, komen de volgende vragen aan de orde:

  • Wat kunnen de gevolgen van de blockchain-technologie zijn voor samenleving en organisaties?
  • Wat zijn nu al toepassingen van de blockchain-technologie voor bedrijfsvoering en verdienmodellen van bestaande en nieuwe producten en diensten?
  • Wat betekent dit voor uw organisatie en uw klanten? Waar zitten kansen en bedreigingen?

Praktische zaken

De masterclass wordt van 13.00 uur tot 18.00 uur georganiseerd bij Landgoed de Salentein te Nijkerk. Aansluitend dineren wij met elkaar waarbij uiteraard ook gelegenheid is bij te praten. De kosten van de masterclass bedragen € 295 excl. BTW.
Inleiders zijn de heren Erwin en Thijs Giesbers, beiden al vanaf het begin actief met de blockchain. Zij kunnen er boeiend over vertellen en doen dit uit eigen ervaring, concreet en vooral praktisch. Van harte aanbevolen!

Aan deze masterclass worden 4 gecertificeerde PE punten toegekend. Inschrijven kan via de website van The Perfect Fit of door een e-mail te sturen aan Charlotte van Weerd: [email protected] . Wilt u – wanneer u interesse hebt in de PE-punten – dit aangeven bij uw inschrijving? Graag ontvangen we dan tevens uw voorletter(s) en eventuele titel(s).

Best read articles on treasuryXL – KREDIETBEOORDELING BANKEN: TRENDS EN ONTWIKKELINGEN

| 27-9-2018 | By Peter Schuitmaker |

 

Kredietbeoordeling door banken? Duidelijk is dat de kredietverstrekking door banken stagneert. Vandaar allerlei nieuwe initiatieven als kredietunies en crowdfunding. Ontwikkeling in de wereld van private equity, participatiemaatschappijen, investeringsfondsen zoals NPEX en de diverse mogelijkheden voor staatsgarantie Garantie Ondernemingsfinanciering, Groeifaciliteit en Borgstellingskredieten MKB. De banken doen nog wel mee. Maar dan met nieuwe spelregels: de nieuwe trends en ontwikkelingen kredietbeoordeling banken.

Traditionele beoordeling

Traditioneel werd de kredietbeoordeling door banken gebaseerd op een viertal criteria. Op de eerste plaats was dat de ondernemer. En met name zijn kennis, ervaring, zijn track-record als ondernemer, de moraliteit en zijn financiële betrokkenheid (commitment). Daarnaast telden mee de rentabiliteit (winstgevendheid), de solvabiliteit (verhouding garantievermogen (eigen vermogen) en totaal waarde van de activa) en de dekking (omvang en kwaliteit van de geboden zekerheden).

Kredietbeoordeling nieuwe stijl

Tegenwoordig worden beduidend meer aspecten meegewogen bij de kredietbeoordeling door banken. Bij een kredietaanvraag moeten deze helder in beeld gebracht worden. Deze  beoordelingscriteria moeten aantoonbaar een ruime voldoende scoren. Banken beoordelen de operationele bedrijfsmatigere risico’s, de structuur risico’s en financiële risico’s. Maar ook het eigen verdienmodel wordt meegewogen. Dit artikel behandelt recente ontwikkelingen bij het proces van de kredietbeoordeling.

Positie in de waardeketen

Een van de kernvragen bij kredietbeoordeling is: welke waarde voegt de kredietnemer toe. En in het bijzonder: wie zijn afnemers en toeleveranciers. Hierbij wordt dus gekeken naar de branche in zijn geheel. Dus de (meer algemene) kenmerken van de bedrijfstak waarin de kredietnemer actief is. Daarnaast ook meer specifiek: wie zijn met name de afnemers en toeleveranciers. Hoe is de financiële gezondheid van deze partijen. Wat is hun betalingsgedrag? En welke trends zijn er in de bediende markt die de positie in de waardeketen kan beïnvloeden. Kortom: wat zijn de hiermee verbonden bedrijfsmatige en financiële risico’s.

Primaire bedrijfsproces

Een ander aspect bij de kredietbeoordeling is de organisatie, stabiliteit en efficiëntie van het primaire (productie)proces. Welke waarde wordt toegevoegd en wat zijn de daarmee samenhangende voortbrengingskosten. Met andere woorden: hoe effectief is dat proces en welke professionele rol speelt daarin het management.

Financiële structuur

Een uitgewerkte balansanalyse is een onmisbaar onderdeel van de kredietaanvraag. Deze omvat een toelichting van de omvang  van de activa. Bijvoorbeeld: het vlottend actief. Staat het werkkapitaal wel in de juiste verhouding met de omzet en de directe kosten en inkopen? En de omvang van het vast actief? Wat was de basis van het investeringsbeleid? Wat is het gebruik van deze vaste activa? Wat zijn de bezettingsgraden? In hoeverre generen deze activa een kasstroom? Waar zitten deze risico’s?

Vermogensstructuur

Welke verplichtingen zijn er buiten de balans (huur, operationele lease). Maar ook: wat is de aard van de passiva. Hoe stabiel (zeker) zijn deze? En ook de stabiliteit van de balansverhoudingen: hoe wordt het vaste actief en vlottend actief gefinancierd? En hoe stabiel zijn deze verhoudingen?

Cashgenererend vermogen

Misschien wel het belangrijkste aspect bij de kredietbeoordeling is het vermogen om kasstromen te genereren. Wat is over langere periode de vrije kasstroom? Hoe aannemelijk is deze? Hoe getrouw is deze prognose en hoe werd deze onderbouwd? De beschikbare vrije kasstroom is de EBIT -/- winstbelasting hierover +/+ de afschrijvingen +/+ de non-cash items (mutatie voorzieningen) -/- investeringen in werkkapitaal -/- investeringen. En dan de vraag: hoe verhoudt zich deze ten opzichte van de verplichtingen aan de verstrekkers van het eigen en vreemde vermogen: noodzakelijke dividendbetalingen (om betaling van rente en aflossing van financiering in de holding mogelijk te maken), (financial) leasetermijnen, rente en aflossing van schulden van de kredietnemer.

Structuurrisico

Banken wegen vooral ook structuurrisico’s mee. Zo wordt er nadrukkelijke gekeken naar de omgeving van de kredietnemer. Binnen welke (groeps)structuur wordt geopereerd. Wat zijn de risico’s van een cashdrain naar verbonden ondernemingen? Bijvoorbeeld door intercompany transacties. Kan houvast worden gekregen op dividenduitkeringen aan moedermaatschappijen? Welke entiteiten behoren tot de creditbase: de direct verbonden kredietnemers en de (hoofdelijk) verbonden borgen. Kortom , die partijen die aangesproken kunnen uit hoofde van het verstrekte krediet. Beoordeeld wordt ook de extended creditbase. Hiertoe behoren de partijen waarvan de financiële gezondheid van invloed is op de vermogenspositie van de kredietnemer. Het kan hierbij gaan om leverancierskredieten of overige (strategische) samenwerkingspartners (of ketenpartners) die financiële belangen hebben bij de kredietnemer (lees: financieringen verstrekt).

Overige aspecten

Daarnaast zijn er een aantal criteria die meewegen zoals de juridische positie, vergunningen (bedrijfsvoering, producterkenningen en –certificeringen) en milieuaspecten. Ambities en een geïmplementeerde visie op het gebied van MVO (maatschappelijk ondernemen) helpt om paden te effenen.

Pricing

Een belangrijk criterium voor de kredietbeoordeling is het eigen verdienmodel van de bank. Waar vroeger vooral ‘volume’ van de kredietportefeuille prioriteit kende, is het tegenwoordig vooral de ‘kwaliteit’  van de kredietportefeuille die telt. Dat betekent dat de bank –naast de beoordeling van het krediet- tevens zich ervan zal vergewissen of de opbrengsten van de kredietverstrekking (rente en provisies) voldoende opwegen tegen de kosten en risico’s.

Uniform Counterparty Rating

In een financieringsrapportage moeten de voornoemde aspecten in voldoende mate worden uitgewerkt. Al deze gegevens wegen mee in de UCR systematiek: Uniform Counterparty Rating. Dit is een samenstel van financiële ratio’s en bedrijfsmatige gegevens. Financiële ratio’s zijn bijvoorbeeld operationeel resultaat / omzet, current ratio, crediteurentermijn,  totaal rentedragende schuld / EBITDA , solvabiliteit, enzovoorts. Bij een kredietaanvraag is een overzichtelijk en onderbouwd investeringsoverzicht onmisbaar. Zo wordt duidelijk om welke investering het in de kern gaat: waar zijn de gevraagde middelen voor nodig. En daarbij ook de onderbouwing: de bedrijfskundige motivatie en de bijdrage aan op het rendement en risico van de kredietnemer. Maak hierbij inzichtelijk hoe de kredietnemer het risicoprofiel zal monitoren. En wanneer welke stappen worden gezet als het risicoprofiel verslechtert.  Op deze manier bouwt u een solide kredietaanvraag die op een positieve besluitvorming van uw bank kan rekenen.

 

Peter Schuitmaker

Registered Advisor for Business Transfer and Succession

 

 

 

Content origineel geplaatst op BBO&F 

 

 

Real and fake risk control – Treasurers and recruiters benefit and suffer

| 25-09-2018 | by  Pieter de Kiewit |

As owner of a small company I have been listening to people complaining about regulatory and compliance affairs for a long time. 2018 will be the year these affairs have a substantial impact on my business and now I can understand the complaints. Both treasurers, recruiters and, I expect, many others in our society, struggle finding the balance in correcting what goes wrong and the hassle of too many rules. Some simple examples: 

  • ING is punished hard for money laundering and I suspect just so. The rules are in place but not applied. My assumption is that target setting beats following the rules;
  • Some large corporates nowadays hire recruitment outsourcing parties that do the procurement of my services. One of them required me to inform them about the payrolling of my staff because: “in Bangladesh there is child labour and we want to prevent you make the same mistake”;
  • One of my clients is a subsidiary of an international conglomerate and decided to implement the services of a new cash management bank. The project has been on hold because the HQ of the conglomerate and the bank cannot agree upon the know your customer (KYC) regulations, much to frustration of all involved;
  • GDPR is implemented, also to control the power of large internet firms. Of course these regulations also apply to my business but did any of you read my new privacy statement or actually read cookie statements? Bureaucracy rules!

I think 99% of us know what is the right thing in 99% of the cases. This is what our parents taught us. That does not mean we will do the right thing. In the current situation, regulators want to solve issues by creating new rules. I am happy that applying the rules with consequences, as with ING, is being done increasingly. I think the structural solution does not lie in more rules.

Hopefully we can all start a dialogue about what is right and act upon it. Customers and clients, family members, colleagues, countries, teachers and students. Not blindly following the rules, but following them because we understand and agree. I am aware that this sounds might sound soft and is not possible in all situations. With many of our clients we cooperate successfully based upon a few bullet points in an email. That’s the way I like it.

Will you share your thoughts?

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

 

 

Reminder Treasury India Summit Mumbai

| 24-09-2018 | CFO Engage | treasuryXL |

Treasury’s strategic role continues to expand as it takes on more responsibilities, collaborates with an increasing array of business units, advises senior management and becomes heavily involved in making capital allocation decisions.

Treasurers’ skill sets are increasingly in demand to provide analytical rigor and advise corporate leaders and boards of directors on how to best optimize corporate liquidity and ensure holistic risk management. To meet growing demands for their time and advice, treasurers have to ensure highly effective and efficient treasury operations in order to fulfill their traditional roles while also meeting the requirements of the “new” treasurer. Companies that embrace this transition into a broader role for treasury and take advantage of treasury’s analytical and risk management capabilities will have an opportunity to make better strategic decisions in an increasingly uncertain business environment.

CFO Engage brings to you Treasury India Summit- a platform for thought leaders in the house of treasury to exchange ideas and network with industry peers.

Why Attend?

  •  Learn how to improve performance by seeing exactly how someone else did it
  •  Hear case studies, lessons learned, and strategic advice from leading treasury management
    teams to identify approaches that work for your company
  •  Network with your ecosystem: Connect and build longterm working relationships with industry peers
  •  Benchmark your performance: Assess strengths, uncover areas for improvement, and keep up to date with the industry.
    Also, identify key IT strategies that generate tangible business value
  • Get new ideas: Engage in live demos and casual discussions, and learn about partner innovations and predictions of things
    to come, to get a fresh perspective and valuable ideas to apply to your business

Treasury India Summit is brought to you by CFO Engage and is an exclusive platform for Treasury professionals from India’s largest and most influential companies. They are brought together to collaborate on the most pressing issues globally. For more information about the event please visit the event’s website.

What is this Treasurer Test that we will launch shortly?

| 20-09-2018 | by treasuryXL |

The Treasurer Test is mainly created to give treasurers, their current and future employers and recruiters insight into the skills and personality of the treasurer. To achieve the foregoing, the test consists of two main parts.

Treasury technical knowledge

In this section the treasury knowledge level of the testee is tested. The questions in this section are developed by De Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and The University of Applied Sciences of Utrecht in cooperation with industry experts. The four categories tested are Cash Management, Corporate Finance, Risk Management and Treasury Miscellaneous. There is limited time available for each category. The questions get increasingly more complex: the first question is easier than the last one. Harder questions are rewarded higher than easy ones. The results are reported in absolutes (like a GPA), but will also be compared with a peer group that has about the same experience. As a hiring manager you can compare your potential employee with other candidates in the labour market.

Personality Profile

Twelve personality traits are tested in the personality part of the test. We have chosen for the Big5 model, in a later blog we will explain why. The outcome is compared with the general population and with the treasury population. We do this under the assumption that the personality of an average treasurer is different from a member of the general population. For example, the treasury testee might not be good at making contact in comparison with the general population, but at the same time be better at this than other treasurers.

As mentioned earlier, the test gives an insight into the skills and personality of the treasurer testee which can be used to decide whether he or she fits the position. The test can also give an indication whether the testee fits the company culture and if there are areas where the treasurer needs training or development.

We are currently testing the product, fill the benchmark and keep you posted about the progress of the test in the next weeks.

Roy Baaten – Community Manager at TreasuryXL

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