What is meant when we read or hear about Volatility?

09-11-2022 | Harry Mills | treasuryXL | LinkedIn

We all have an intuitive feel for what volatility is – we know when a market is exhibiting high or low volatility because we see differences in price changes. But it pays to be more precise with our language and to understand what is meant when we read or hear about volatility.

By Harry Mills

Source

Defining Volatility

Let’s start with a more instinctual and accessible definition:

Volatility is the rate at which prices change from one day to the next. If some currencies or other financial assets routinely exhibit greater daily price changes than others, they are considered more volatile.

Harry Mills, Founder & CEO Oku Markets

In his preeminent book, Option Volatility & Pricing, Sheldon Natenberg refers to volatility as “a measure of the speed of the market,” which is a particularly useful reference point when we consider that volatility and directionality are two different things: an underlying’s price can slowly move in one direction over time with very low volatility, or perhaps it swings wildly from day to day, but over a year it’s not changed much.

Now we have a feel for what volatility is, how do we quantify it? This third definition explains what it actually is: the annualised standard deviation of returns, and Natenberg refers to volatility as “just a trader’s term for standard deviation.”

This isn’t an article on standard deviation per se, but if you’re unaware of what this means then it is a measure of the dispersion of data around the average. Take for example if we measure the height of 1,000 people:

  • If all 1,000 people are exactly 5’7″ then standard deviation is zero
  • If standard deviation is two inches, then we know that 68.2% of people will be between 5’5″ and 5’9″ (see the normal distribution chart below)
Normal Distribution chart (Wikipedia)
Normal Distribution chart (Wikipedia)

What about “annualised” and “returns”?

Volatility is always expressed as an annualised number – this uniformity means that everybody knows what is meant when we talk about volatility being X%. In that sense, it’s rather like interest rates, which are also always described as an annualised figure.

This might not be so immediately useful to a trader or a risk manager, though, who might be thinking of daily or weekly price movements and where their risk or opportunities lie. Volatility is proportional to the square root of time, so to convert annualised volatility into daily, we simply divide the volatility by the square root of the number of days in a year – but we need trading days  on average there are 252, equating to 21 trading days a month. The square root of 252 is 15.87, but most traders approximate this to 16…

Hence, if we have a contract trading at 100 with a standard deviation of 20%, then: 20%/16 = 1.25%. We would therefore expect to see a price change of 1.25% or less for every two days out of three (+/- 1 standard deviation is around 68%).

Returns… I won’t go into detail, but if you want to explore this I would recommend chapter 10.6, The Behaviour of Financial Prices, in Lawrence Glitz’s superb Handbook of Financial Engineering which explains how price returns follow a normal distribution and prices follow a lognormal distribution. I’ll also add that calculating the standard deviation of prices doesn’t provide meaningful information because what we are looking for is the change from one period to the next, so we need to look at the daily returns!

Still here? Ok… let’s take it down a notch and look at the types and uses of volatility

Types of Volatility

There are a few types of volatility that can be measured, but by far the most commonly used and referred to are historical and implied volatility:

  • Historical volatility is a backward-looking measure that shows how volatile an asset has been over say, a 20-day period. It’s useful to look at different time periods and to chart the daily movement in the volatility.
  • Implied volatility is the future expected volatility – the term ‘implied’ is helpful because it literally means the volatility that is implied by the premium of an option contract. It’s a critical factor that influences options prices and draws the attention of traders and risk managers.

Uses of Volatility as an Indicator

Volatility is a common measure of risk, and it is a key component of Value at Risk modelling. But be warned of the ubiquitous disclaimer that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Historical volatility is useful to understand how an asset or a currency has performed in the past – you can line this up with significant macroeconomic events and understand why there may have been a period of change, and you can get a feel for how the underlying “normally” behaves. For example, trading in the Turkish lira will probably present a higher risk than in, say the Swiss franc.

Summary

  • Volatility is the rate at which prices change from one day to the next
  • It demonstrates the “speed of the market” and is different from directionality
  • Technically, volatility is the annualised standard deviation of returns
  • You can approximate daily volatility by dividing the annualised volatility by 16
  • Historical volatility tells us what happened in the past
  • Implied volatility is the expectation of future volatility, and critical to option pricing

Thanks for reading!


 

Harry Mills, Founder at Oku Markets

How Treasurers Can (Still) Get Ahead During Uncertain Times

08-11-2022 | treasuryXL | GTreasury | LinkedIn |

Victoria Blake, the Chief Product Officer at GTreasury, recently ran through four trends that corporate treasurers ought to be paying careful attention to—particularly as ongoing economic uncertainty heads into 2023.

Blake argues that “treasurers without a connected treasury are left playing an ever-widening game of catch-up.” She offers specific advice for how treasurers can approach FX rate visibility, cash forecasting, bank fee analysis, and API connectivity. This is a must-read treasurer as they plan their treasury technology strategies for 2023.


Training: Treasury Management and Credit Collections

07-11-2022 | François de Witte | treasuryXL | LinkedIn

treasuryXL expert François de Witte will be giving a treasury training at the House of Training in Luxembourg on 22 November. We would like to highlight this valuable training which is available for only 255 euros!

Description

In his day-to-day work, the accountant must in particular be able to follow/manage the cash flow and the credit collections of the company. Cash management starts from a different dimension than the accounting perspective, namely that of flows and cash management.

The objective of this training is to give an overview of the treasury dimension, flow and cash management, monitoring of client settlement (Credit Control) and risk management in terms of financing the company. In addition, we will also look at how best to manage the banking reporting, the reconciliation and the bank relationships.

 

Objectives

At the end of the training, the participant will be able to:

  • Identify the cash flow components and their interactions with accounting
  • Understand the basics of a company’s day-to-day cash management
  • Optimize flows in the company
  • Manage customer collections and the development of a “Credit Control”
  • Better understand banking reporting and reconciliation
  • Know the organization of a treasury department and its tools
  • Identify basic tools for hedging risks, managing debt and excess liquidity

Programme

  • Definition of treasury objectives
  • Relations and interactions with other departments including accounting
  • Optimizing the management of financial flows in the company
  • Cash and liquidity management
  • Basic cash management techniques
  • Identification and management of financial risks
  • Financing and banking management
  • Technical tools available to the treasurer

Target Audience

Anyone interested in learning how accounting works and understanding corporate cash flow

Prerequisites

Basic financial and accounting knowledge

 


 

Francois de Witte

 

François de Witte

 

 

 

The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Working Capital

07-11-2022 | treasuryXL | ComplexCountries | LinkedIn |

No apologies for the second report on working capital and interest rate rises in a short period: we are seeing significant changes in the business environment, and treasurers are being challenged.

Source

This call focused primarily on the higher interest rate environment. One participant was mostly concerned about how to invest excess cash – the others are grappling with rapidly increasing working capital, driven by the need to keep bigger buffers, due to COVID and the Russia/Ukraine war, and the long delays in logistics circuits.

Funding challenges:

  • One participant manages treasury for South America, where there have been significant rises in interest rates, and, in some countries, funding shortages, with banks unable to provide cash and prioritising local companies. The challenges have been manageable, and they have not had to resort to drawing down all their lines to make sure they are available. This behaviour, which is akin to the rush on toilet paper in supermarkets, has been an issue in many markets, including more developed ones. However, there has been some, limited, pre-funding around significant events.
  • This has led to an increase in the number of banks in the funding panel.
  • One participant prefers their subsidiaries to fund themselves locally – but the cost of higher interest rates (for example, 35% in Turkey) is dissuasive, even if, economically, they are significantly below the inflation rate (>80%).
  • There is an increased focus on being more efficient in the use of cash within the company, so more pressure on cross-border pooling, accessing trapped cash, intercompany netting, etc.
  • Some participants are using the situation to selectively get higher discounts for pre-paying suppliers: this can be an effective way to increase the return on cash
  • Generally, the participants are at the point where these challenges cause additional work, but none of them is particularly serious.

Working Capital Management

  • Typically, treasurers have to fund working capital, but they do not manage it.
  • In all cases, there is a dialogue with the business about how much working capital the business can support, and how it can be reduced.
  • Higher interest rates are resulting in increased expense. Depending on the company, this may, or may not, be reflected in the measurements of the business units.
  • The participants all agreed with the business need to hold more inventory, but a dialogue is required to make sure this doesn’t get out of control. One participant works with the business on resisting calls to change payment terms, while another helps arrange pre-funding for suppliers, when needed.

Contributors:

This report was produced by Monie Lindsey based on a Treasury Peer Call chaired by Damian Glendinning

To access this report:

Access to the full report is available to Premium Subscribers of ComplexCountries. Please log in on the website of ComplexCountries to access the download.
Please contact ComplexCountries to find out about their subscription packages.


Ask the treasuryXL expert #5 What is Factoring in Trade Finance?

03-11-2022 | treasuryXL | Wim KokLinkedIn |

treasuryXL is the community platform for everyone with a treasury question or answer! A common question asked by treasurers is what Factoring means in Trade Finance. In today’s article Ask the treasuryXL Expert, Wim Kok defines factoring in trade finance for us.

Factoring in Trade Finance

Question:  “What is Factoring in Trade Finance?”


Answer provided by Wim

What is Factoring in Trade Finance?

Well, there is a pretty good definition included in the Standard Definitions for Techniques of Supply Chain Finance, prepared by the Global Supply Chain Finance Forum and published by the ICC in 2016. It is currently being updated, but the definition is still alright.

There they give the definition of factoring in trade finance as: Factoring is a form of Receivables Purchase, in which sellers of goods and services sell their receivables (represented by outstanding invoices) at a discount to a finance provider (commonly known as the ‘factor’). A key differentiator of Factoring is that typically the finance provider becomes responsible for managing the debtor portfolio and collecting the payment of the underlying receivables.

Would you add anything to this definition? 

There are a number of things I would add to this to explain the terminology and make it more clear:

  • The term “factoring” is sometimes used as an umbrella term for all forms of invoice financing, including confidential invoice discounting. Strictly speaking, “factoring” refers to both debt management and debt purchase.
  • In the UK, factoring is usually communicated to the debtor, as the collection procedures are carried out by the funding provider (the “factor”).
  • Non-public factoring is usually more popular than full factoring. In this case, the customer retains control over the collection of the receivable.
  • In some markets, disclosure is required by law. Some even require the debt to be formally acknowledged before purchase.
  • In the UK, the standard practice is for the factor to purchase all debt – known as “whole turnover” – even if not all debt is eligible for financing. This gives the factor leeway to absorb any dilution or non-payment of individual invoices. Banks also take secondary security in the form of an “all-asset debenture”. This is registered at Companies House and notifies other potential lenders that debts have been transferred.
  • A subtle but important point is that a debt assignment can serve two purposes: it can mean that the debt has been bought or that the debt has been taken as security for a loan.
  • Many Fintechs offer single invoice/selected invoice/selected debtor solutions, but these are inherently riskier than whole turnover solutions. Large bank providers are generally reluctant to follow suit.
  • Factoring can be done with or without recourse. Even arrangements without recourse include provisions allowing the factor to require the customer to buy back the invoice under certain conditions (e.g. contractual dispute).
  • Factoring can possibly be “wrapped” in credit insurance.
  • In the UK, major finance providers tend to operate an “availability model” in factoring rather than funding individual invoices. The “availability” changes in real time as new eligible debts are purchased (within agreed counterparty limits etc) and existing debts are settled, defaulted or become ineligible. The customer can then draw down to “availability” at any time. This is similar to a “borrowing base” approach, albeit with frequent increases and decreases within the day. This model, combined with the “whole turnover” mandate, provides the factor with a secure source of repayment even if some invoices remain unpaid.

I trust this will be helpful and give more insight into this subject.

Wim Kok



Do you also have a question for one of the treasuryXL experts? Feel free to leave your question on our treasuryXL Panel. The panel members are willing to answer your question, free of charge, with no commitment.

MENA Investment Banking Review First Nine Months 2022

02-11-2022 | treasuryXL | Refinitiv | LinkedIn |

Refinitiv Deals Intelligence brings you the MENA Investment Banking performance review, covering First Nine Months 2022.
Access this report for Investment Banking fees, volumes, and league tables across M&A, Equity Capital Markets, and Debt Capital Markets. Examine deal flows, top deals, most active nations, and most active sectors.

 


Report Highlights

INVESTMENT BANKING FEES 
An estimated US$1.1 billion worth of investment banking fees were generated in the Middle East & North Africa during the first nine months of 2022, 5% more than the same period in 2021 and the highest first nine-month total since 2008.  Almost half of this year’s fees were generated during the first three months of the year, with quarterly fees declining in the following two quarters.  Fees totalled US$186.4 million during the third quarter of 2022, the lowest quarterly total in the region in six years.
MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS
The value of announced M&A transactions with any MENA involvement reached US$69.7 billion during the first nine months of 2022, 17% less than the value recorded during the same period in 2021.  Despite the decline in value, the number of deal announcements in the region increased 5% from last year to the highest first nine-month total since our records began in 1980.
EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS
MENA equity and equity-related issuance totalled US$15.3 billion during the first nine months of 2022, the highest first nine-month total since 2008.  Proceeds raised by companies in the region increased 166% compared to the first nine months of 2021, while the number of issues increased 110%.
DEBT CAPITAL MARKETS
MENA debt issuance totalled US$18.3 billion during the first nine months of 2022, down 80% from the value recorded during the same period in 2021 and the lowest first nine-month total since 2011.  The number of issues declined 68% from last year at this time.

Download the report


Interview | 8 questions for Konstantin Khorev, Seasoned Treasury Professional

01-11-2022 | treasuryXL | Konstantin Khorev | LinkedIn |

 

Meet our newest expert for the treasuryXL community, Konstantin Khorev.

Konstantin has 18+ years of experience in corporate treasury, gained in various environments: from public companies with +100BUSD turnover, to PE and privately owned companies, as well as at a prominent treasury consulting firm.

Being exposed to a wide range of different challenges and projects, Konstantin has built a strong expertise in the full spectrum of treasury and risk activities and in cross-functional collaboration and treasury partnership with business operations, tax, accounting, audit, and internal control.

Konstantin holds a Ph.D. degree in financial mathematics and is a CFA charter holder since 2009.

 

We asked Konstantin 8 questions, let’s go!

INTERVIEW

 


1. How did your treasury journey start?

In 2005 I changed my career path from investment management to corporate finance with a leading oil major. Couple of years later, being already a professional with several years of experience in related areas, I decided to join the treasury department within the same company. I made my decision mainly because of a great team and a lot of challenging projects there – we basically were requested to bring best practices into treasury function in multinational corporation with +100BUSD turnover. The first project was setting up an international multicurrency cash pool structure.

2. What do you like about working in Treasury?

Cross-functional collaboration (business, accounting, FP&A, tax), possibility to implement projects that make structural changes, e.g. in how company manages cash and financial risks, make payments, automate processes, etc.

3. What is your Treasury Expertise and what expertise gives you a boost of energy?

Change and project management, setting up a function from scratch or bringing best treasury practices, with special personal interest in the area of automation and data analysis. Having my first background in mathematics and computer science I also like to develop my own IT solutions (python, VBA, SAP scripting) that can solve certain automation or data problems and thus bridge a gap between client’s needs and available market solutions. Observing the professional growth of team members, I am coaching or used to coach is also a big source of excitement to me.

4. What has been your best experience in your treasury career until today?

I would say I can not highlight one single project. I enjoy and I am proud of every moment when I see the change realized, or cost-reduction/value-added created.

5. What has been your biggest challenge in treasury?

Setting up supply chain financing in a country where our team and company have been among pioneers implementing the product. Apart from tax, legal, accounting challenges related to the jurisdiction, as well as bank negotiation it required a lot of effort to explain the benefits and persuade all the stakeholders (from CFO to supply managers and suppliers). The ultimate result was more than rewarding: win-win solution both for the company decreasing working capital needs by 50% and for the suppliers getting access to much cheaper (and sometimes even unavailable at all) bank financing.

6. What’s the most important lesson that you’ve learned as a treasurer?

Invest time explaining what treasury is about and why certain things are crucial for internal counterparties.

7. How have you seen the role of Corporate Treasury evolve over the years?

Playing bigger and bigger role as a business partner to other functions. Embedding more opportunities that are provided by IT solutions.

8. What developments do you expect in corporate treasury in the near and further future?

Automation and machine learning to play more role in daily and later strategical treasury operations. Distributed Ledger Technology (blockchain is an example) still to show its full potential. Fintech companies substituting banks in more areas and having bigger market size.

 

Want to connect with Konstantin? Click here

 

Thanks for reading!

 

 

Kendra Keydeniers

Director Community & Partners, treasuryXL

How important is it for you that someone has a well-known Treasury degree?

31-10-2022 | treasuryXL LinkedIn |

The fifth edition in which we discuss the latest poll, is available for your reading. We show how treasurers voted to express their opinions on a current issue, and several of our treasury experts will talk about their perspectives.

We thank our experts Konstantin Khorev,  Arnoud Doornbos and François De Witte for sharing their valuable views on this topic in this edition.

How important is it for you that someone has a well-known Treasury degree?

There are plenty of education and training courses in treasury, with the aim of obtaining treasury certificates. We wanted to explore how important you think this is, in the job market or for other things. There was a very good participation in the poll, resulting in a record 113 votes. Thank you everyone for actively participating, and join us in voting for the poll that is currently live and let’s try break the record votes right away!

Question: How important is it for you that someone has a well-known Treasury degree? On the job market or for other things?

How do treasures think of a treasury degree?

We see a considerable spread of votes. A large proportion of treasurers value expertise more than a degree. On the other hand, a large proportion considers a treasury degree minimally of high importance. Some of our treasuryXL experts from different backgrounds explained their views on the subject.

View of treasuryXL experts

Konstantin Khorev

Konstantin voted for the option that a treasury degree is a guarantee of quality.

” Specific, treasury-focused education certainly makes sense.”

From the perspective of a recruitment manager who has conducted a number of interviews, I find that a standard academic programme does not focus enough on the topics relevant to the treasury function.

For example, I note that too many candidates for treasury positions find it difficult to understand or don’t know FX forward pricing (relationship between interest rate differential, spot and forward pricing), or don’t understand the difference/relationship between net income and cash flows, etc.

And, of course, these are only general topics; other topics – like cash pooling or hedge accounting are just not part of the regular curriculum. Therefore, specific, treasury-focused education certainly makes sense.


Arnoud Doornbos

Arnoud voted for the option that a treasury degree is just one of the key aspects.

” There are also elements that you can never learn from a book”

A treasury degree is a great start to a career in treasury. But after having interviewed many candidates in my life, I am also convinced that practice is also a very good learning opportunity. There are also elements that you can never learn from a book. You must have done that. But a treasury degree is a nice theoretical framework to start with.

In treasury you have to think in terms of cash flows and risks. In addition, you still need some understanding of financing, how to price it in relation to the risk that the bank runs on your company.

I don’t have a treasury degree myself, but I am completely self-made man. After 25 years in dealing rooms of banks and then 9 years as a treasury consultant, I think I have seen all facets of the profession.


François de Witte

François voted for the option that a treasury degree is a guarantee of quality.

” It is key to ensure that both the candidates and the current treasury staff keep their treasury knowledge updated”

Within Finance, Treasury is a fast-moving activity, which requires in addition to the soft skills a lot of technical skills and competencies. We are in the war for talent, and we experience more and more staff rotation. Hence it is key to ensure that both the candidates and the current treasury staff keep their treasury knowledge updated.

Several programs have been developed, the most well known being the ACT Certificate in Treasury Fundamentals. In the Netherlands NIVE also organizes the QCM (Qualified Cash manager) and QT (Qualified Treasurer) training. In Luxembourg, ATEL organizes with the House of Training the Certificate in International Treasury Management and Corporate Finance, with a Fundamentals version and an Advanced version.

Some treasury associations partnering with universities to provide treasury certification. In France, the AFTE has teamed up with the university of Paris Sorbonne, the university of Rennes and the University of Lille to develop a full master program in Treasury Management.

We also have in the Netherlands the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam who organizes the postgraduate Executive Treasury Management & Corporate Finance program combining two finance disciplines which largely overlap and are inextricably connected: Treasury Management and Corporate Finance. It has now been running for more than 20 years.

Beside this we have a lot of other treasury trainings organized by organizations such as Van Groningen, Finsiders Academy, Orchard Finance, etc. However, they do not offer a certification.

In an ever more sophisticating environment, and in view of the increased regulations, it is for me key to look at certified trainings to build a solid background in a Treasury Management field. It enables to meet other talented treasurers and teachers. In addition, thanks to the certification, based upon an examination and/or end paper, you can get a additional quality label, which can be very useful in your career.

In this respect, I wish to share my personal experience in a completely different area. I am currently looking for Board Mandates and realized that there also a certification can be useful. Hence I have started the Guberna programme to become a Guberna Certified Director.

In the event that due to circumstances, you cannot follow certified trainings, you can also get a certification thanks to the Treasurer Test developed by treasuryXL.

Optimising cash and liquidity through currency management

31-10-2022 | treasuryXL | Kantox | LinkedIn |

Can you improve cash and liquidity management with the help of more effective currency management? The answer is: yes, you can! In this article, we see how currency management and cash management are, in effect, joined at the hip.


Five important touchpoints

There are at least five crucial, yet sometimes unduly neglected, touchpoints between FX risk management and cash or liquidity management. Let me briefly set the stage first. Then I will discuss their interactions.

(1) Swapping. Adjusting the company’s hedging position to the cash settlement of the underlying commercial exposure requires a lot of swapping.

(2) Collateral. In a world of shifting interest rates, treasurers need solutions that allow them to optimise collateral management.

(3) Working capital management. Solutions to improve working capital and liquidity are rarely mentioned in the context of FX risk management. Yet, they exist!

(4) Netting. Netting allows companies to generate savings in trading costs and in terms of the cash balances needed to satisfy collateral requirements.

(5) Cash flow forecasting. According to a recent survey by HSBC, more than half of treasurers worldwide say that cash flow forecasting is the most important task in treasury.

How and when currency management meets liquidity management

Take the case of a hedging program designed to protect the FX budget rate. It includes stop-loss orders to protect the FX rate used in pricing or a ‘worst-case scenario’ FX rate. It can also include profit-taking orders to lock in more favourable exchange rates.

As long as the stop-loss orders are not hit, hedge execution is postponed. This means that the cash required for collateral requirements can be set aside at a later date. It also means that treasurers have more time to improve their cash flow forecasts.

And it’s not over yet! Hedging incoming firm sales/purchase orders or invoices leads to very precise currency hedging. This means that purchasing managers are in a position to buy confidently in the currency of their suppliers. These, in turn, will be more inclined to grant extended paying terms.

With the perfect end-to-end traceability that comes with automated programs, managers can safely aggregate exposures without fear of losing the benefits of data granularity. This can create more netting opportunities, again reducing the need to set aside cash in terms of collateral.

Finally, swapping can be easily automated.

And voilà!

Feedback effects

That’s how effective FX risk management ends up improving liquidity management. Note that the process feeds on itself. Let me give you an example. Because swap automation releases valuable treasury resources, treasurers can take advantage of the benefits of using more currencies. Automated swap execution, therefore, improves not only the cash management part of the FX workflow but also —indirectly— working capital management.

That’s what I call a win-win situation!

Brush up on your treasury knowledge? Get our eBook: What is Treasury?

27-10-2022 | treasuryXL | LinkedIn |

How can you fast brush up on your treasury expertise, Treasurers, CFOs, Cash Managers, Controllers, and other Finance Addicts? Or how would you describe “What Treasury is” to family and friends? Well, there is an easy solution for it. Download our free eBook here: What is Treasury?

This eBook compiled by treasury describers all aspects of the treasury function. This comprehensive book covers relevant topics such as Treasury, Corporate Finance, Cash Management, Risk Management, Working Capital Management.

This eBook was prepared by treasuryXL based on the most useful best practices offered by Treasury professionals throughout the previous years. We compiled the most crucial information for you and wrote clear, concise articles about the key topics in the World of Treasury.

We took a deeper dive into each of the above-mentioned treasury functions and highlight:

  • The purpose of each named Treasury function (What is?)
  • What specialists do
  • Examples of Activities
  • Summary of Frequently Asked Questions and answers
  • Conclusion

How to receive the eBook ‘What is Treasury’ for Free?

We simply giveaway two presents for you! By signing up for our newsletter you will automatically receive the following in your inbox:

  1. On Fridays, our Coffee Break weekly newsletter will land in your inbox. In this weekly newsletter, we will highlight the whole week full of the latest treasury news within our community.
  2. The 41 pages eBook, What is Treasury?

 

Subscribe, Join, Download and Relax.

Welcome to our community and have fun reading!

 

 

Director, Community & Partners at treasuryXL