Financiële markt in Egypte

| 12-09-2016 | René Schilder |

sphinxAfgelopen weken hebben er verschillende artikelen in de internationale kranten gestaan over de lening die het IMF aan Egypte wil verstrekken. Daarbij zagen we ook de Egyptische minister van landbouw Nederland bezoeken om te leren van de Nederlandse expertise op het gebied van land- en tuinbouw. De ontwikkelingen op de financiële markt in Egypte krijgen ook meer aandacht, dus we kunnen concluderen dat het interessant is om even stil te staan hoe de lokale valuta daar is georganiseerd. Na een eerdere devaluatie in maart van dit jaar, wordt er nu alweer een volgende verwacht.

Wat zijn de kenmerken van deze munt?

De EGP is een valuta die alleen gehandeld kan worden in het land zelf (onshore). De centrale bank regelt deze markt via zogenaamde auctions. Lokale handelaren (exchange companies) en banken die een vergunning hebben, kunnen hieraan deelnemen. Deze exchange companies bedienen alleen klanten die niet met banken handelen. Bij een verzoek om US dollars te kopen en EGP te verkopen moet sinds kort wel worden aangegeven wat de achtergrond van die transactie is.

De officiële koers die gehanteerd wordt is 8,78 per USD. Door de economische crisis is de vraag naar buitenlandse valuta heel groot en zien we op de parallelmarkt (exchange companies) ook een koers van 12.5 per USD. Officieel mag de maximale marge 15 piaster zijn (8.93) volgens de regels van de centrale bank. Vorige maand heeft de overheid harde maatregelen aangenomen om een betere controle te krijgen over die parallelmarkt. Een aantal vergunningen van exchange companies is ingetrokken en er zijn flinke boetes ingesteld voor degenen die zich niet aan de regels van de centrale bank houden.

Banken die buiten Egypte zijn gevestigd, zijn uitgesloten van de onshore markt, zij kunnen alleen maar NDF handelen (offshore). Handel je met een bank die buiten Egypte is gevestigd, dan kun je wel exposure afdekken maar vindt er geen fysieke levering (settlement) plaats. Op de afloopdatum wordt het verschil in koersen tussen de onderliggende contracten verrekend; er zal geen levering van onderliggende valuta’s plaatsvinden.

Gezien de ontwikkelingen op de markt voor valuta in Egypte is het heel verstandig om goed te kijken met wie je zaken doet. Naast het grote aantal regels voor exporteurs om toegang te krijgen tot de markt in Egypte, is het nu dus ook cruciaal om naar de financiële kant te kijken. Welke marktpartijen zijn toegelaten en hoe kan ik mijn valutaconversie regelen? De verwachting is dat de lening van het IMF ook tot een aanpassing zal leiden van het huidige beleid van de centrale bank met betrekking tot de lokale munt (EGP). De marktverwachtingen gaan uit van een flexibele wisselkoers na implementatie van het IMF programma.

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reneschilder1René Schilder – Co Owner 2FX Treasury BV
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Fed Rates – Prospects of USD/INR Carry

| 09-09-2016 | Rahul Magan |

ir“Federal Reserve Rates and INR Reverse Carry”. As we understand that Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen turning Hawkish and asking for 25 Bps increase in September 2016. If we look carefully then Fed vice Chair Fisher also suggested the same and at the same time most prominent Bond Trader – Bill Gross also suggested increase of 25 Bps in September and 25 Bps in December. If this would happen then Overnight Rates of USD would move to 1% and this would be closer to Australia which is 1.5% in $ terms.

We should also appreciate the fact that both Central Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of India are moving towards Accommodative Monetary Policy. This way they would decrease the interest rates as to stimulate their economy. In that regards there are millions of thoughts but in my view Accommodative Monetary Policy is a big suicide as Japanese is a perfect example in that regards. They are doing QQE since last 2 decades but at the end need to depend upon Helicopter Money to stimulate their economy?? We all understand that Helicopter Money is nothing but Explicit Debt Monetization by BOJ for Govt of Japan.

There are multiple reports which suggest that Helicopter Money has already started in the form of Helicopter Drops by BOJ for Govt of Japan. This would surely create Reverse carry for USD/INR. We all understand that Indian Central Bank – Reserve Bank of India is now following Accommodative Monetary Policy henceforth there is a big pressure on RBI to cut present Repo Rates of 6.5% by at least 100 Bps to 5.5%. This would surely decrease the carry of INR for all Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) to invest funds in India.

One more fact which matters is the growing relevance of Indonesia where in 10 Y G Sec is trading at 7.7% and Singapore who would like to increase overnight rate to 1.35 %. If this would happen then all the funds which are scheduled to India would invest in United States who is offering 1% , Australia 1.5% , Indonesia 7.7% and upcoming Carry Currencies like Singapore offering 1.34%.

We also need to appreciate the fact that Carry Traders needs big return and specially at that time when Japanese , Swiss , Europe is in negative and also big banks like Royal Bank of Scotland , Bank of Ireland and Deutsche is asking big clients to pay negative collateral. Sitting today we are having “Quest for Yield Hunt”.

Reserve Bank of India should be well aware of the fact that if they would reduce Repo Rate by 100 Bps to 5.5% then probability of having INR moving towards Reverse Carry is 100%. This won’t appreciate INR rather would depreciate the same as less $ would park in India. We also understand that this would also increase the reliance of Indian Corporates on External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) and there would be very less funding covering Foreign Currency Non Resident Bonds (FCNR) in India which would have reciprocal impact on both USD/INR Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and Overnight Index Swaps (OIS)

On the 5th of September 2016 Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said there is still a big for Qualitative Quantitative Easing (QQE) in Japanese Economy however this time Negative Interest Rates would play a very important role in that regards. Keeping all the aforesaid factors, Currency Traders are advised to take care of the same while making trading bets involving INR. Currency Traders are advised to have Options Structures to hedge their exposures.

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Rahul Margan fotoRahul Magan – Chief Executive Officer Treasury Consulting LLP

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How long can interest rates stay so low?

| 08-09-2016 | Lionel Pavey |

rating

How long can interest rates stay so low? When we talk about interest rates, it is helpful if we know the basic theory of how the level of an interest rate is determined.Classical thinking states that there are 5 components in interest rates (x).

 

5 Components in interest rates:

  • Risk free rate – a constant rate with no inflation
  • Inflation – the future expectation for inflation is added to the risk free rate.
    These, together, are called the nominal interest rate
  • Default risk premium – the individual credit score of the borrow
  • Liquidity premium – compensation for offering a product that can be difficult to sell on
  • Maturity premium – in a normal positive yield curve, longer maturities have a higher interest rate

A review of various data providers show that the “indicative rate” for a bullet loan with a maturity of 5 years for a Dutch local authority would be 0.06% per annum. Let us look as this rate compared to the 5 components already mentioned.

C, D and E are all premia and would, therefore, have a positive value. Even if their collective value was zero, it would imply that “nominal” 5 year interest rate would be 0.06%. This nominal rate, as previously stated, comprises both the risk free rate and the expected inflation.This leads to the presumption that either risk free rates are zero or that future expectations of inflation are negative.

According to the ECB inflation (HICP) index in July 2016 prices rose by 0.2% as an annual percentage change. The target inflation rate for the ECB is below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Central banks set interest rates whilst keeping a watchful eye on headline and expected future inflation (it is a lagging indicator). Many studies claim that inflation indices overstate the true inflation figure, which would imply that the true inflation change would be zero or slightly negative.

If we were to enter a recession now there would be no room to use monetary policy as done previously as there is no space to lower rates any further. This would then only leave fiscal policy, but there is no unity within the Euro zone on fiscal policy.

It would appear that the present policy of quantitive easing (QE) has lead us to very low interest rates coupled with minimal inflation and no significant growth in GDP. Therefore, it is not improbable to envisage the current period of very low interest rates being maintained for quite some time in the future.

Furthermore, when QE stops, the ECB will eventually have to sell the bonds they are holding. Such an action could, conceivably, lead to a large rise in interest rates causing disruptions in the economic cycle. In the current environment, monetary policy can not revive the economy.

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist – Flex Treasurer

Instant Payments: major innovation ahead! How fast is “the new normal”?

| 07-09-2016 | Boudewijn Schenkels |

Imagine it will be possible to transfer money within several seconds from any bank account to another bank account. 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. It will open large business opportunities enabling many innovative payments use cases.

After the introduction of SEPA the market is ready for further innovation. New payment laws (PSD2) make the payment market more competitive and new payment providing parties are anxious to participate. The continuous development of the ‘always on’ economy drives the need for faster and 24/7 payment execution.

According to the European Retail Payment Board (ERPB), an instant or immediate payment is an electronic (retail) payment solution, available 24/7/365 and resulting in immediate interbank clearing of the transaction and crediting of the payee’s account with confirmation to the payer within seconds of payment initiation, irrespective of the underlying payment instrument used and arrangements for clearing. Basically: sending and receiving payments 24/7 within seconds. National instant payment solutions have already been successfully launched in a number of European countries, such as Denmark, Poland, Sweden and the UK.

The SEPA Instant Payment, based on the SEPA Credit Transfer, can be offered in SEPA by November 2017; with the Rulebooks for this so called SCT Inst scheme becoming available in November this year. Some communities will offer Instant Payments from the start, others will follow later, but not offering Instant Payments doesn’t seem to be an option. Various other countries, including The Netherlands, Belgium, Spain and Italy, are running programmes to deliver Instant Payments to their communities in the coming years. The major Dutch banks have committed themselves to deliver Instant Payments, or what they call: “the new normal”, by May 2019.

Instant Payments in itself will offer new interesting payments use cases, but it will certainly serve as a platform to support many new innovative payments services.

Impact for Treasurers and Cash managers

For treasurers and cash managers there will be large changes as well as opportunities. For a long time banks have provided cash pooling solutions to their customers, but Instant Payments will allow to sweep accounts at any time to enable efficient cash pooling and distribution eventually throughout Europe.

Another few examples of these “future” use cases are:

  • Pay upon delivery (car purchase, market place transactions) every hour of the day
  • Enabling of cash transactions replacement
  • Instant Pay-out of Insurance payments: in case of a calamity an immediate pay-out and availability of funds can be very beneficial for consumers;
  • Instant lending: propositions where loans can be granted in near real time the pay-out can be done instantly providing the customer with access to the funds immediately
  • Notary payments: immediate transfer of funds also in the weekend
  • Request for Instant Payment: request a payment and get payed immediately when authorised
  • Time critical or “just in time” business payments: the greater transparency in a SEPA Instant Payment (within seconds it is either successful or not) will enable businesses to pay and be paid on delivery (e.g. shipping, delivery of goods, etc.), or to settle fees such as tax, port fees etc. associated with a cargo to enable its release
  • It can replace some urgent payments services
  • Late cut-off times for SEPA batch payments by re-using Instant Payments: if a service is introduced that converts batch SEPA Credit Transfer payments into Instant Payments businesses can profit from the 24/7 instant character of Instant Payments without major changes to their payments environment; depending on the size of the batch and the capacity of the instant payment infrastructure batch payments can be executed in minutes or in a few hours and out of business hours; it allows business to pay later, pay on a specific day of the month and increase liquidity
  • Instant Direct Debit: an Instant Direct Debit would combine the advantage for businesses of having instant clarity of the payment succeeding and receiving funds, for instance last minute lottery ticket

You will say, “too good to be true”, but they are all in scope for “the new normal”. I would like to say: be aware of all the changes and business opportunities for your organization and prepare yourself!

boudewijnschenkels150x150

 

Boudewijn Schenkels

Senior Consultant Payments @ Payments Advisory Group

 

 

Managing interest rate and liquidity risk

| 06-09-2016 | Rob Söentken |

skyscrapertxl

 

Funding is one of the key focus areas of a treasurer. There are numerous dimensions to funding:
1. Assessing amount and timing of cashflows
2. Arranging access to funding
3. Developing and implementing hedging policy
4. Optimizing funding cost and risk

Assessing amount and timing of cashflows

Assessing the amount and timing of cashflows is a continuous process. Because needs can change both in short and long term.

Arranging access to funding

Matching funding needs with supply from financial institutions is also a continuous process. The typical approach would be to match tenors, but immediate access to cash is critical for the survival of any entity. It could be considered to arrange longer term financing, even for short term (revolving) funding needs. The downside is that long term access is more expensive than short term access. This may be acceptable, but if the spread between borrowing and lending excess cash is too wide, it will become very unattractive to borrow for long tenors.

Developing and implementing hedging policy

To ensure the treasurer works within the boundaries of his mandate, he has to develop a hedging policy which must be documented (‘on paper’) and approved by his management. The document should describe the whole area of funding, to ensure both the creation and hedging of risks are described.

Optimizing funding cost and risk

The main focus drifts towards reducing funding cost. The funding market typically has a steep cost curve, meaning that rates are higher for longer tenors. This results from a steep ‘risk free’ curve and / or from a steep ‘credit spread’ curve. Which often brings entities to borrow for the cheapest tenor possible, being monthly, weekly or even overnight funding. Funding for very short tenors creates the considerable risk that can cause a company to run into a liquidity crisis, in case access to funding disappears. How to deal with this dilemma?

The best approach is to define a number of scenarios to assess the impact of combinations of financing and hedging on funding and risk. A base scenario could be to finance all funding needs using overnight loans. In case of liquidity problems, what would be the impact on the funding rates? Another scenario would be using quarterly funding or yearly rollover funding, potentially combined with:

  • money market futures
  • interest rate swaps
  • caps / floors
  • bond futures or even
  • credit derivatives

What are the incremental funding cost? What are incremental operational expenses of running various products? Can the entity deal with managing margin requirements? Is the entity aware of the basis risks involved when using credit derivatives, which are fairly complex products?

Rob Soentken

 

 

Rob Söentken

Ex-derivatives trader

 

Blockchain: Some remarkable announcements part II

| 05-09-2016 | Carlo de Meijer |

blockchainWhile Blockchain is seen by many as a network phenomenon that needs large market participation, collaboration and interoperability to succeed, both R3CEV and a group of four large global banks came with announcements that are at least a bit remarkable. The bank-backed consortium had filed for a patent of Corda (which is contradictory to the need for open standards and protocols), and at the same time a small group of R3 consortium members have expressed their wish to create their own digital currency (while large collaboration is needed). 

Utility Settlement Coin

A second remarkable announcement was that of a number of large global banks to create their own digital currency. This plan could be seen as another example of  going alone, or at least with just a limited number of players, while large scale collaboration is required for more massive adoption of this technology.

Separately, a group of four R3 consortium members, including BNY Mellon, Deutsche Bank, Icap and Santander have joined with UBS and Clearmatics to a blockchain based transaction settlement project called the Utility Settlement Coin (USC), and plan tests in  a real-world environment.

What is USC?

USC is an asset backed digital cash instrument implemented on distributed ledger technology. The USC is focused on facilitating a new model for digital central bank cash. (By the way, there are several digital cash models being explored). USC is aimed at facilitating payments and settlement for use within global institutional financial markets. Using this technology could contribute to more efficient transactions in terms of speed and lower costs.

USC is aimed as a service of cash assets, with a version for each of the major currencies and USC is convertible at par with a bank deposit in the correspondent currency. USC is fulltime backed by current assets held at a central bank. Sending a USC will be sending its paired real world currency.

Going forward

The group will collectively build of on earlier experiments by UBS and blockchain software company Clearmatics. They launched the concept in September 2015 to validate the potential benefits of USC for capital efficiency, settlement and systemic risk reduction and as a forerunner for central bank backed digital cash issuance. The virtual coin will act as a proxy for physical currency assets held in deposit at the central bank.

“The focus of the work will consist of financial structuring of the USC and wider market structure implications, as well as market integration points for a fully operational utility settlement coin for future use by institutions” according to the group.

The USC concept will be developed through a series of short repetitive phases and platform developments. At each stage the aim is to increase the number of market participants, broadening engagement, connectivity and network effects.  That virtual currency, USC, should go live in 2018.

Active dialogue

Active dialogue  with central banks and regulators will continue to ensure  a regulation compliant, robust and efficient structure within which the USC can be deployed. Recent discussion of digital currencies by central banks and regulators has confirmed their potential significance.

Read more remarkable Blockchain announcements in the first part of this article.

 

carlodemeijer

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

Che Guevara, Musk and 0%. Whose story do you listen to?

| 02-09-2016 | Pieter de Kiewit |

cheguevaraIn 2015 the Dutch writer Joris Luyendijk published his book “Dit kan niet waar zijn” about the workings of financial markets. An interesting read for all treasuryXL followers and by now, quite well-known. In my perception one of his earlier works is even better. “Het zijn net mensen” describes the public opinion about the situation in the Middle East and how we are all influenced by governments, media and our cultural backgrounds. For me this was a true eye-opener.

I remembered the book during my recent vacation in Ireland. Apparently Che Guevara has Irish roots, his forefathers are from Galway. Locally he is portrayed as a revolutionary hero. During this vacation I saw an US television series in which he was described as a terrorist….

Recently our Dutch media describe the negative interest and quantitative easing as disastrous. I do not read Italian, Greek or Spanish newspapers but can imagine they write different stories. And today Elon Musk is in the news. Tesla, the company he founded, is buying one of his other companies Solarcity, where two of his cousins are in the board. He did not mention this transaction when, a few months ago, Tesla sold stock worth $1.4 billion. One has to play by the rules… Companies that are making the world a better place by developing environmentally technology should be stimulated in their actions and Musk is creating advancement. Should this part be included in the articles?

The media do not offer a balanced story, the media consumers (read: we) do not have the time or patience to listen to nuance. Should they/we?

Pieter de Kiewit

PS Without broadcasting an opinion, how can it be that almost 100% of the Dutch think Trump is unacceptable as a president of the US and a substantial portion of US citizens consider him their next president? What media do we listen to?

 

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

Managing cash across borders

| 01-09-2016 | Olivier Werlingshoff |

virtualcash

ING has launched a tool for managing cash across borders. Dubbed Virtual Cash Management (VCM), the solution, announced on the 24th of August, provides an array of digital solutions for corporate treasurers, including internal transfers, reconciliation and invoice matching. It also supports payment-on-behalf-of subsidiaries transactions, as well as collection-on-behalf-of subsidiaries transactions. (pymnts.com)

ING about this new tool:

 

 

“Virtual Cash Management (VCM) is a next-generation digital cash management solution centred around treasurers’ current and future needs. Designed to help treasury functions reach the next level of optimisation, VCM facilitates centralised cash management, visibility and control – without the significant cost or complexity that is traditionally associated with such goals.

The Virtual Cash Management solution combines a cross-border Virtual Bank Account (VBA) structure with Virtual Ledger Accounts (VLA) displayed in an advanced multi-bank cash management dashboard, offering a group-wide view of all payments, collections and cash – as well as enhanced reporting functionalities.” (ingwb.com)

What do our experts think about this tool? Will this help treasury functions reach the next level of optimisation?

Olivier WerlingshoffOlivier Werlingshoff:

Banks are looking for alternatives for the notional pooling. Companies use notional pools to compensate the positive balances from one account with the negative balance from another without moving any balance. Another positive aspect of notional pools is that intercompany transactions are avoided.

By using virtual accounts companies can still keep all transactions related to one bank account. For banks, on the other hand, virtual account are only virtual and uses one and the same real bank account for all transactions.

This is one option to avoid notional pools.

How to: Opstellen van een Cash Flow overzicht

| 31-08-2016 | Maarten Verheul |

cashflowprognoseCash is king, en met een goede liquiditeitsprognose kunnen financials inzichtelijk maken hoe een bedrijf er nu en in de toekomst voor staat. Dat deze liquiditeitsprognose veel vragen oproept, blijkt uit het feit, dat slecht 10% van de bedrijven zo ’n overzicht maakt. Daarom 10 tips voor financials die zich met de liquiditeitsprognose willen bezighouden.

Een betrouwbare liquiditeitsprognose – ofwel planning van ontvangsten en betalingen – is van groot belang om tijdige maatregelen te nemen als er liquiditeitskrapte dreigt te ontstaan. Maakt men wel of geen gebruik van Excel? Begint men top down of bottom up? Hoe groot is de betrouwbaarheid van zo’n forecast eigenlijk? Volgens mijn poll op LinkedIn besteedt slechts tien procent van de bedrijven aandacht aan een liquiditeitsprognose. Dit komt onder meer omdat bedrijven de waarde ervan onderschatten en omdat er geen kennis in huis is om dit te doen. Hieronder tien tips die de financial kunnen helpen bij het opstellen van een liquiditeitsprognose.

1. Begin op tijd

Als leidraad kan worden aangehouden dat in oktober het eerste concept budget klaar moet zijn. Dan kan tegelijk de eerste concept liquiditeitsprognose gemaakt worden. Realiseer, dat als uit de prognose blijkt dat er extra krediet bij de bank nodig is, dat dit tegenwoordig lang duurt( 2 á 3 maanden).

2. De basis is een goed budget

Voorspellen doe je meestal op basis van oude gegevens en de bestaande budgetten. Als de gegevens waarmee de liquiditeitsprognose wordt gemaakt niet juist zijn, is de gehele forecast verkeerd. Een liquiditeitsprognose start altijd vanuit de jaarrekening; die dient dus te kloppen.

3. Zorg voor aansluiting met de balans van het afgelopen boekjaar.

Naadloze aansluiting met de (eind-)balans van het afgelopen boekjaar is voor de prognose essentieel. Door met historie te werken worden er immers ook bepaalde seizoenspatronen meegenomen.

4. Verhouding met gebudgetteerde balans

De liquiditeit moet aansluiten op de gebudgetteerde balans; de balans oud boekjaar en daar in verwerkt budget P &L. Met andere woorden: het beginsaldo bank is het eindsaldo bank aan het einde van het oude boekjaar, en het eindsaldo bank liquiditeit prognose is het banksaldo geprognotiseerde balans. Dit moet aansluiten; anders is de liquiditeitsprognose onjuist.

5. Houd het simpel

Een forecast blijft een forecast; daarom doe je er goed aan om niet volledig accuraat in de details te zijn en niet teveel aandacht te besteden aan relatief kleine verschillen. Houd de liquiditeitsprognose zo simpel mogelijk. Een kolom ‘Real’ naast de forecast kan helpen om te signaleren of het krediet de komende maanden voldoende is. Zo niet, dan kan er actie worden ondernomen richting de bank. De liquiditeitsprognose staat en valt met een betrouwbare verwachting van de omzet. Als die verwachting niet voldoende betrouwbaar is, is het maken van een uitgewerkte liquiditeitsprognose in feite zonde van de tijd.

6. Maak de prognose zelf

Een liquiditeitsprognose is zo sterk afhankelijk van onder andere de aard van het bedrijf, de wijze van rapporteren en hoe men bepaalde cijfers interpreteert, dat een standaard prognose in feite niet bestaat. Daarom is het aan te bevelen het opstellen van zo’n prognose altijd in huis te doen. Natuurlijk zijn er externe partijen die dit goed kunnen maar kennis van de business en branche is essentieel voor een juiste forecast.

7. Garbage in, garbage out

Het opstellen van een liquiditeitsprognose is een zeer intensief karwei waarbij regelmatig de grootboekrekeningen geraadpleegd dienen te worden. Dat leidt vaak tot nieuwe inzichten en correcties. De kwaliteit van de liquiditeitsbegroting hangt volledig af van de kwaliteit van de maker. Aan de controllers is het vervolgens de taak om zowel begroting, realisatie als forecast goed te verwerken. Dit geldt ook bij Excel: de gemiddelde kennis van de mogelijkheden van dat programma ligt onder de 30%. Fouten zijn snel gemaakt en garbage in? Garbage out.

8. Excel is gevoelig voor fouten.

Een Excelsheet met een liquiditeitsprognose bestaat grofweg uit de volgende drie componenten: Cash In, Cash Out en Banksaldo. De meningen lopen uiteen over het al dan niet inzetten van Excel voor de liquiditeitsprognose. Mocht Excel de voorkeur hebben, let dan goed op de juistheid van gegevens. Die kunnen namelijk door één verkeerd getal of formule compleet verkeerd uitkomen.

9. Wel of geen specifieke software hangt af van de financial

Met software die specifiek voor een liquiditeitsprognose is ontwikkeld kunt u de gehele financiële situatie van een bedrijf in kaart brengen; het wordt dan bijna onmogelijk om posten te vergeten en de liquiditeitsprognose rolt dan bijna als vanzelf uit het programma. Hoewel veel financials zich graag vasthouden aan het werken in Excel kunnen programma’s als Diamond FMS, Ten Solutions, Vision Planner, Liemar, Prophix, Tagetik of Professional Planner helpen om de liquiditeitsbegroting te automatiseren. Bedenk wel; software is een tool, geen doel.

10. Voorspellen kan top down en bottom up

Een liquiditeitsbegroting kan top down vanuit de verlies- en winstprognose opgebouwd worden, met een verfijning door de balansfluctuaties mee te nemen. Bottom up is echter ook een optie. Let bij bottom up op specifieke BTW-aspecten en stromen die net voorbij maandeinde gebeuren; die kunnen een afwijking genereren ten opzichte van de top down benadering. Een combinatie tussen top down en bottom up is ook mogelijk, door eerst de winst / verlies te berekenen en daarna de maandmutaties en eindstanden binnen de balans. Op die manier krijgt u een exact overzicht van de begrote liquiditeit, gedurende het jaar.

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maartenverheultxlMaarten Verheul – Treasury Consultant
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Payment fraud – Leoni case

| 30-08-2016 | Udo Rademakers |

wolkenkrabberAt the 5th of August I wrote an article regarding payment fraud. Not even two weeks later, Leoni, an automotive company in Germany with EUR 4.5b turnover, has been the victim of massive fraud where USD 40m has been wired … to a crime organization. “Leoni realized it had become the victim of fraudulent activity with the help of falsified documents and identities and the use of electronic communication channels,” the firm said. (source: dw.com)

Most probably, this has been done via the so called “Fake President Fraud”: an employee receives a top secret message from the “CEO” with the instruction not to discuss this request with anyone else and to make a high value wire (to an account abroad). Obviously, the money flows into a crime organization.

Currently I am working in Germany where one sees (including myself) an increase in these kinds of attempts. I suspect that most of the cases don’t make it into the paper however.

I refer to my article what measurements could be taken to avoid payment fraud, but would advise corporates as well to make a “quick scan”, as a lack of transparency and decentralization of payments increases the opportunity for fraud and cybercrime:

1. Do you centrally manage and control payment workflows?

2. Are payment workflows consistent within the group?

3. How many payment initiation systems do you run within your group and are limits and processes aligned?

4. Do you link your payments to your Cash flow forecast?

If all of the above questions can be answered with “yes” and the payment systems are limited, some risks are reduced and therewith “Leoni-cases” will hopefully be avoided.

Udo Rademakers

 

Udo Rademakers

Independent Treasury Consultant & Interim Manager