Moving Averages – how to calculate them

| 1-8-2017 | Lionel Pavey |


In the second article in this series we will be looking at different types of moving averages. Moving averages are used to determine the current trend of a price. They filter out the extremes within a range of data and present a smoother picture. They are almost exclusively calculated using the arithmetic mean. Some studies have been done using the median, though no advantages have been discovered. The following 3 methods are the most common approaches. In all following examples we shall assume an average calculated over a continuous series of 10 data points.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

We take 10 consecutive values and calculate the simple arithmetic mean. When we calculate the next value we drop the oldest value in the series and add the newest value. We are constantly using the most current data in our calculation. Every data point receives the same weighting i.e. 10 per cent of the complete series. Whilst being very easy to calculate criticism is levelled at the fact that all data points receive the same weighting. This can distort the average when the market is volatile – more recent data is closer to the true market price.

Weighted Moving Average (WMA)

Here the 10 data points are assigned different weights, usually based on a simple mathematical progression. The 10th data point (most recent data) would be multiplied by 10; the 9th data point (second most recent data) would be multiplied by 9; etc. The product of these calculations would then be divided by 55 to produce a weighted average. This weighted average applies more importance on the most recent prices and, therefore, more closely match the current price.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

This is another form of a weighted average, but the weighting factors decrease exponentially. As such, whilst the older data points decrease exponentially in value, they never stop. Therefore, this average encompasses considerably more data than the previous 2 examples whilst still being an average calculated with only 10 data points.

The results

EMA is more responsive than SMA. An EMA graph will accelerate faster, turn quicker and fall faster than a SMA graph. This is due to the weighting given to the most recent data. However, these are all lagging indicators – they will always be behind the price. Furthermore, if a market is trapped in a very small trading range the averages will not be as smooth as the actual data. One of the main goals of using averages is to see if prices break out of a range and start a new trend.

Moving averages can be used simply to see what the current trend is. They can be further used by applying different 2 moving averages (one for 10 days and another for 50 days) to ascertain the change in momentum by 2 different time lines. But they all lag the market data.

Most of the time prices will tend to concentrate in a small area, with occasional larger movements up or down establishing the next area of consolidation. Is there an alternative way to design moving averages that take this into consideration?

Adaptive Moving Average (AMA)

Instead of just weighting the data, AMA also look at the price volatility. When prices are in a small range AMA will notice this lack of volatility and provide a trendline that is almost flat. As prices break out of the range AMA will move quickly up or down, depending on the change in prices. The advantages of AMA are that, visually, when prices are reasonably flat (little volatility) a clear flat line is shown so that even if the actual market price is lower than the AMA, it is clear that it is still within a range. As AMA is more sensitive to volatility, it can contain more data about the current trend. An initial breakout from a tight range will result in a very steep line for AMA. The trend can continue, but AMA will clearly show earlier than other averages when the trend is weakening. The only basic problem with AMA is the calculation – it is far more complex to calculate and is not so intuitive when you come to explain it to someone who does not know it.

As stated earlier, all moving averages suffer from lag – they are behind the actual price curve. Our last example is an average that attempts to remove this lag, whilst being more reactive to the current price.

Hull Moving Average (HMA)

Initially, a WMA is taken for 10 data points. Then a WMA is taken for half this period (5 data points) and is calculated with the 5 newest data points. The difference between these 2 is then combined with the WMA for the shorter period to arrive at a new average – the HMA.

The HMA is faster, smoother and eliminates most of the lag that is present in the other moving averages. In fact, it most closely resembles the actual market data.

All these averages are used to attempt to show what the trend is in the actual price, whilst filtering out the noise from all the prices, and presenting the data in a smooth form. Yet again, as previously mentioned, a change in the underlying fundamentals of the price will always have more impact on the price than any form of technical analysis.

However, if we concede that for a large majority of time prices are just trending, a moving average can be used to try and predict when the prices have moved out of their range and are on a new path with fresh momentum until that slows down and the following range is established.

When charting data we need to appreciate the amount of data we will be producing. Even if we just use the price at the start of the day, or the end of the day, we will accumulate at least 255 data points every year. If prices are in a small range, then more data is added to the chart series to provide a more dynamic picture. But this can make the visual data more cluttered once we include the actual data and 1 or 2 moving averages. Would it not be better if we could eliminate time and just look at price?

Read also my first article in this series where I tell you more about several types of forecasts.

In the last article in this series I will look at 2 common methods of showing price data devoid of timelines.

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

Preparing the roll out of instant payment services: testing EBA’s RT1 platform

| 31-7-2017 | Jan Meulendijks | Finextra |

Instant payment services become more popular. UniCredit is testing the EBA Clearing’s RT1 real-time platform and preparing for the roll out of this service to 30 banks in Italy and Germany. Last week Finextra published an article about this development. Our expert Jan Meulendijks gives his opinion about the EBA Clearing’s RT1 real-time platform.

EBA’s RT1 is a probably a life-saving step for the banking/financial world as we know it today. SEPA was of course a major improvement in speeding up cross-border EURO-payments, but still the clearing process and therefore also the required processing time, was rather something from the 20th century and not up to today’s technical standards.

Without RT1 (and maybe similar developments yet to come) the banks are about to lose their payment processing activities and the related profits to other parties, mainly in the public domain (Blockchain) and ITC-sector. Microsoft, Google and Apple are names that will be appearing in this industry.

Remarkable: Italian banks seem to be fore-runners in joining RT1. Italy has always been infamous for the archaic infrastructure of their local and cross border payment systems. The slogan “what is backward will become forward” seems to apply here.

Jan MeulendijksJan Meulendijks – Cash management, transaction banking and trade professional

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More articles that might be interesting to read:

SEPA Instant Payments – a catalyst for new developments in the payments market (part I)

Instant payments for treasurers

Instant Payments: the SEPA Instant Payments rulebook is published, what’s next?

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The Digital Trade Chain: the blockchain train is rolling

| 28-7-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

Trade finance is increasingly becoming the number one use case for blockchain with the greatest potential to benefit from this technology. In previously blocks I already showed the accelerated activity in this area (see: Blockchain and Supply Chain Finance: the missing link May 7, 2017 and Blockchain: accelerated activity in trade Finance, January 26, 2017).

End seven European banks, forming the so-called Digital Trade Chain consortium, announced their plans to develop in collaboration with IBM a trade finance platform based on blockchain technology. This is said to become the first real-world application of blockchain technology and might become the start of more of the blockchain train.

What is the Digital Trade Chain consortium?

In January this year seven European banks (Deutsche Bank, HSBC, KBC, Natixis, Rabobank, Société Générale and UniCredit) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Brussels to create the Digital Trade Chain consortium. Under this MoU the banks intend to collaborate on the development and commercialisation of a shared supply chain management and trade finance platform for small and medium-sized companies (SMEs) using blockchain technology. That platform, called the Digital Trade Chain (DTC), should make domestic and cross border commerce easier for European SME business.

The aim of the project is to simplify trade finance processes for SMEs by “addressing the challenge of managing, tracking and securing domestic and international trade transactions.

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

Forecasting the future by looking at the past

| 25-7-2017 | Lionel Pavey |


A key role within the Treasury function is providing forecasts to the directors and management. The most obvious would be the cash flow forecast, but others would include foreign exchange prices, interest rates, commodities and energy.

A forecasts is a tool that helps with planning for the uncertainty in the future, by analyzing data from the past and present whilst attempting to ascertain the future.

Internal – cash flow forecast

We would like our forecasts to be as accurate as possible – that the values we predict are close to the actual values in the future. This requires designing a comprehensive matrix to determine the variables needed for the data input. Data has to be provided by all departments within a company to enable us to build a forecast. This data needs to be presented in the same way by all contributors so that there is consistency throughout.

We also have to see if the forecast data is within the parameters of the agreed budget. We also need to check for variances – why is there a difference and how can it be explained.

External – FX and Interest Rates

A more common approach is to read through the research provided by banks and data suppliers to try and see what the market thinks the future price will be. Also we need to include data from the past – we need to know where the price has been, where it is now and what the expectation is for the future.

Extrapolating forward prices is notoriously difficult – if it were simple, we would all be rich in the future! But, by including past data, we can see what the price range has been, both on a long term as well as a short term basis.

When attempting to find a future value there are 2 common methods used – fundamental and technical.

Fundamental Analysis

Use is made of economic and financial factors both macroeconomic (the economy, the industrial sector) and microeconomic (the financial health of the relevant company, the performance of the management). The financial statements of a company are analysed in an attempt to arrive at a fair value. This leads to an intrinsic value, which is not always the same as the current value.

The value is normally calculated by discounting future cash flow projections within the company.

Technical Analysis

Use is made of the supply and demand within the market as a whole and attempts to determine the future value by predicting what the trend in the price should be. This is done by using charts to identify trends and patterns within the data. This assumes that the market price now is always correct, that prices move in determinable trends and that history repeats itself. Technical analysis uses the trend – this is the direction that the market is heading towards.

Whilst these 2 approaches are independent of each other, they can be used together. You could take a fundamental approach to value a company or asset, and then use technical analysis to try and determine when you should enter and exit the market.

Fundamental analysis is more of a long term path and technical analysis is more short term. The most important thing to remember is that markets only really experience large movements based on changes to the fundamentals. Predicting the long term future only via technical analysis is likely to be incorrect. All the major movements over the last 50 years in the prices of shares, bonds, foreign exchange and interest rates have occurred because of a change in the fundamentals.

In the next article, I will look at various methods of calculating averages to determine the trend.

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

Why does Apple issue a green bond? Spoiler alert: I do not know (yet)

24-7-2017 | Pieter de Kiewit | treasuryXL |

Recently we had an “inner circle meeting” of treasuryXL in which we talk about developments and the direction we want to go. One of the invitees suggested we pay special attention to sustainable financing and related topics. I agree that this topic is quite prominent and this reminded me about a recent article in which a so-called “green bond issue” by Apple is described. This was the second issuance by them and raised $1 billion. Then my corporate treasury laymen’s mind started working and so far it has not stopped about this topic.

At the start of this year Apple was in the news because of the huge pile of cash in their books. The amounts are staggering and most likely not accurate. Repatriating this cash to the US would be suboptimal from a fiscal perspective but that is a topic for another blog. The funds raised with the green bond will be used to start projects around renewable energy and buying of safe raw materials.

The puzzle for me is: if you have all this cash, why would you do a bond issue? It is a lot of hassle, why not leverage the money you have? If you think this is a smart investment, why not invest yourself?

One of my colleagues suggested they do this from a marketing perspective. I don’t know about you, but I will not buy an Apple instead of a Samsung because of a green bond. So this is not the reason I expect. Perhaps it is a risk mitigation strategy in a project Apple will invest in anyway. My question to the corporate treasury and banking community: Do you know why?

Thank you for your answer and I will try to focus on other blog topics around sustainability and corporate treasury. I am convinced more obvious are available.

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

 

Another interesting article about funding:

Business case – Funding strategy: how Fastned uses Nxchange

Banken en Financiële Markten in Vogelvlucht – Boek en e-learning voor specialisten zonder financiële achtergrond

| 21-7-2017 | Michiel van den Broek |

 

Sinds de jaren ’80 heeft er een ongekende schaalvergroting plaatsgevonden in de financiële sector. Door deze schaalvergroting hebben banken zich ontwikkeld tot gigantische financiële supermarkten die een zeer uitgebreid aantal financiële diensten en producten aanbieden. Banken zijn tegenwoordig IT-bedrijven waar een grote groep specialisten werkt met beperkte financiële vakkennis.

 

 

Mijn boek ‘Banken en Financiële Markten in Vogelvlucht’ geeft een helder overzicht ter introductie in de complexe wereld van banken en financiële markten. Bij het boek is een toegankelijke e-learning training beschikbaar met multiple choice vragen en een aantal video’s.

De combinatie van boek met e-learning biedt een efficiënte opleiding met basiskennis over de kernactiviteiten van banken, de verschillende bankactiviteiten en soorten banken, de oorzaak van de financiële crisis van 2008 en de ‘Bazelse Akkoorden’ waarop het toezicht van centrale banken is gebaseerd. Tevens bevat het een overzicht van de verschillende activiteiten op financiële markten, zoals de motivatie om bepaalde soorten financiële (derivate) producten te verhandelen, de prijsvorming en organisatie van de handel van deze producten. Ook de actuele onderwerpen risicomanagement en compliance komen aan de orde aan de hand van een aantal praktijkvoorbeelden van calamiteiten, zoals de problemen met MKB-rentswaps en de onbevoegde handelsactiviteiten van zogenaamde ‘rogue traders’, waaronder Barings Bank en woningbouwcorporatie Vestia.

Het boek is verkrijgbaar voor €25, toegang tot de e-learning kost €95.

Voor het boek en de e-learning kunt u mailen naar [email protected]

Een demo van de e-learning kunt u vinden op FTH.

Over de auteur: na mijn bedrijfseconomische studie heb ik vanaf 1990 gewerkt in de financiële sector. Sinds 2005 geef ik trainingen om ‘complexe’ financiële onderwerpen toegankelijk te maken voor professionals zonder economische of financiële opleiding.

 

Michiel van den Broek

Owner of Hecht Consult

Mobile finally makes treasury easier

| 20-7-2017 | Udo Rademakers |

On the 12th of May 2017, in GTnews an article has been placed regarding “Mobile finally makes treasury easier”. The article describes how Citibank is working to replace tokens with mobile phones and testing a multitude of options for finding a more convenient solution.

I am used to work with multiple tokens with a variety of passwords and different kind of banking applications/websites. For some of the banking sites, authorisation of payments via a smart phone was quite difficult and working from the desktop was required. A way of solving the „multiple token issue”, is using a third party provider which (re)connects all payments via (cloud based) multi-bank platforms, however this is not needed for each and every Treasury department.

If banks are working on an easy authorisation method via modern, smart and above all secure technology (like digital fingerprint ), I am confident that the payment control and executions for most Treasurers (and CFO`s) will improve. Especially for the ones who are frequently travelling. If the improved –token free- payment authorisation process could be integrated with the process of obtaining information, input & approval of transactions, viewing of balances including „smart alerts“, corporate banking via mobile technology will reach the next stage in the area of cash management as well.

However, even with the greatest solutions in place, an outage of mobile network or running out of battery remains a risk – now the holiday season started perhaps anyway good to be offline for a while.

 

Udo Rademakers
Independent Treasury Consultant & Interim Manager

 

 

 

SEPA Instant Payments – a catalyst for new developments in the payments market (part I)

| 19-7-2017 | François de Witte |

On 29 June 2017, I attended a workshop organized by Fintech Belgium on how Instant Payments will push the financial sector to innovate. In this article (the first part of 2) I will set the scene by presenting some use cases. In the second part (online next week) I share some views on how Instant Payments, in combination with PSD2, will be a game-changer in the market. 

The new generation customer claims “I want it all, and I want it now”. It is his anthem for having packages delivered, ordering food or finding a taxi driver. Payments are next, and they expect the financial industry to follow by offering real time or near real time experience.

As opposed to real-time payments with smartphones, transferring money between banks or cross-border payments often takes several days to be processed. For this reason, the EPC (European Payment Council) decided to introduce SCT Inst scheme: a real-time payment system where interbank transactions will be cleared within maximum 10 seconds at any time of the day and 365 days of the year. Similar schemes were already successfully put in place in other states (e.g. Denmark, Sweden and the UK).

Setting the scene – some use cases

As already mentioned by Boudewijn Schenkels on TreasuryXL, the characteristics of the new SEPA Instant Credit Scheme are the following:

  • SCT Inst is proposed by the EPC, and is hence not a mandatory scheme
  • it is a 365/24/7 available (no down time)
  • it is near real execution time (maximum 10 seconds, and some communities try to reduce this execution time)
  • there are real time failure notifications of the beneficiary
  • the funds are immediately credited and reusable by the beneficiary
  • a very important feature is the irrevocability of the payment. Once the payment has been initiated, it cannot be revoked, except in case of fraud
  • the scheme only cover single transaction only – no batch processing
  • currently the scheme limit is set at 15.000 euros, but this limit is expected to increase later on

The scheme should be operational in November 2017, but in some countries it is already live (e.g. Finland and Spain). Besides the processing, an important aspect is to ensure that the beneficiary is advised.

As Alessandro Longoni outlined earlier on treasuryXL, both from a cash management, and from a treasury perspective, Instant Payments open many new possibilities both for merchants, and corporates.

Thanks to its irrevocability, the SCT Inst will also be a disruptor for existing PSPs such as Paypal and Amazon Pay. It is expected that the banks will charge much lower fees then them. We might also expect that this scheme would also challenge in the cards market, where new players could benefit from both PSD2 and SCT Inst to offer more competitive payment schemes. However the card operators might also react by adapting their prices and/or offering additional new services.

For the banks, merchants, and the payment industry more widely, the PISP (Payment Initiation Service Provider) model will have a significant impact on the way in which consumers and merchants transact in the future. Unlike the traditional four-party card model, customers would “push” cleared funds to merchants, with ACH transactions replacing the current card CSM (Clearing & Settlement Mechanism). This will significantly simplify the existing payment model, with fewer players and interactions involved.

The drawing down below illustrates this quite well:

Source: OVUM – Instant Payments and the Post-PSD2 Landscape

We also expect that thanks to the new schemes and competitors, the use of cash will decrease, although cash will remain important for a while. Cash is accessible to all, also those who do not have a bank account. It enables immediate settlement without intervention of a third party. Cash is the only payment instrument that currently guarantees the user’s privacy and anonymity, while all electronic transactions are traceable.

In the second part of this article, which will be online next week, I will tell you more about instant payments as a game changer.

François de Witte – Founder & Senior Consultant at FDW Consult

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More articles from this author:

Treasury for non-treasurers – cash conversion cycle and working capital management

Flex Treasurer – Besparing na een Treasury Quickscan: nog meer praktijkvoorbeelden

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Stock exchanges and blockchain: open positions

| 18-7-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

Just like banks, a growing number of exchanges worldwide have already taken a serious look at the way they can leverage blockchain technology. This in order to ‘get rid of’ the existing time consuming, cost inefficient and risky operations. Ranging from Abu Dhabi to Toronto they are experimenting with various use cases ranging from settlement, over-the-counter trading to proxy voting. Others have just started and have or are having hosted blockchain events such as the Jamaica Stock Exchange (Blockchain Masterclass) and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (Hackathon) not wanted to be left behind. In this blog I will make a ‘tour de table’ (in alphabetic order) around the various blockchain-related activities of stock exchanges worldwide.

Exchanges: Tour de Table

Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX)

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) has started implementing blockchain technology, enabling shareholders to participate ‘with further transparency’ while using e-voting techniques. The technology was used recently (end March 2017) at the annual general meetings (AGM) for six listed companies, including two private joint stock companies and four public joint stock companies, on the ADX.

“I encourage companies to use blockchain technology. I am confident that more training and practice of this technology will widen positive outcomes and bring more companies to use this technology. This will go in line with Abu Dhabi 2030 Economic Vision that seeks to strengthen digital transformation in the UAE.”Rashed Al Blooshi, ADX chief executive

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

One of the forerunners in the blockchain race is the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). The ASX already announced early 2016 that it had teamed up with blockchain startup Digital Asset Holdings to develop a new distributed ledger solution for investors, listed companies, and intermediaries, for clearing and settling trades. This to replace the existing Clearing House Electronic Subregister System (CHESS).

The exchange has now completed the initial phase of its DLT testing, and their blockchain prototype has ‘met performance, security and scalability thresholds’. The company’s shareholders report, released in February, stated that the ASX is on track for a decision in late 2017 on whether distributed ledger technology (DLT) represents a suitable replacement for the ASX’s CHESS system. The final decision on the company’s post-trade infrastructure will be made in 2018. Only then will a blockchain solution progress into full production

The ASX recently built a dedicated blockchain showcase space, called ‘acceler8’, in their Sydney headquarters. The set-up of a ‘purpose built demonstration suite’ is aimed to ‘bring to life’ the possibilities of distributed ledger technology, to help stakeholders understand what is possible.

“It is one thing to talk about blockchain, but in order to really understand its capabilities, you need to see it in action.” Peter Hiom, ASX deputy CEO

Deutsche Börse Group

Deutsche Börse Group has been making substantial investments in the development and introduction of ‘state-of-the-art’ blockchain services. The German exchange is working on several prototypes related to blockchain technology and DLT.

Recent developments include a solution for cross-border securities transfer in cooperation with the Liquidity Alliance and a functioning prototype for the settlement of securities transactions in cooperation with Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank.

Deutsche Börse and Deutsche Bundesbank presented their first functional prototype for the blockchain technology based settlement of securities transactions against instant and delayed payments in November 2016. This concept is based on a blockchain from the Linux Foundation’s Hyperledger project, and will allow for functionality for the settlement of securities in a delivery-versus-payment mode for centrally-issued digital coins (as collateral).

“Along with the Deutsche Bundesbank we are innovatively and creatively addressing potentially radical technological opportunities for the financial sector. We will continue to do our utmost to leverage blockchain’s efficiency potential and to better understand and minimize the associated risks of this technology.” Carsten Kengeter, CEO of Deutsche Börse

The system will also be capable of settling basic corporate actions such as coupon payments on securities and the redemption of maturing securities. Next to that the prototype will enable the maintenance of confidentiality and access rights, which will be done in a blockchain-based concept on the basis of a flexible and adaptable rights framework.

The Deutsche Bundesbank and Deutsche Börse stated that they plan to further develop the prototypes during 2017. They said that the developed products will be used to “analyse the technical performance and the scalability of this kind of blockchain applications”.

Euronext and others develop blockchain infrastructure for SME post trade

Euronext (Amsterdam, Paris and Brussels) and a number of financial institutions including names like BNP Paribas Securities Services, Caisse des Dépôts, Euroclear, S2iEM and Société Générale, in collaboration with Paris EURPLACE, last year June signed a Memorandum of Understanding to explore together the development of a post-trade blockchain infrastructure for SMEs in Europe.

“We wanted to engage collaboratively in order to mount an innovative project with the potential to drive the transformation of the post-trade market. By pooling our strengths in this ground-breaking area, we are focusing on new solutions that will give small and mid-sized companies — key actors for growth in Europe – easier access to the financing they need. With this project, we are securing the means to seize opportunities that blockchain distribution can offer: speed of execution, low cost and security.”

Open to other international partners, this pilot agreement aims to improve SMEs’ access to capital markets while facilitating secure and transparent post-trade operations. It is part of the development of a new regulatory environment in France that allows the issue and circulation of securities using blockchain technology.

Mission will be to harness blockchain technology in the design, development and deployment of innovative solutions for post-trade. By reducing transaction costs while maintaining a high level of security, the company would help SMEs raise funds more easily on capital markets.

National Stock Exchange of India (NSE)

The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), HDFC Securities, along with a group of domestic Indian banks are collaborating on a know-your-customer (KYC) data trial, testing blockchain technology. Blockchain startup Elemential provided the technology for the trial. 

The NSE has been testing the tech since as early as September last year. The test involved a shared environment in which the stock exchange would on-board customer data, while different entities (banks and regulators) could access this information in real-time. The first stage of the trial was completed in January. The next stage is expected to see the use of real customer data.

Japan Exchange Group (JPX)

Early last year, it was revealed that IBM had teamed up with Japan Exchange Group (JEX), which operates the Tokyo exchange, to start experimenting with blockchain technology for clearing and other operations. The Japan Exchange Group (JPX) and IBM are working towards testing the potential of blockchain technology for use in trading in low transaction markets. JPX is embracing a proof-of-concept that is investigating how blockchain could be used to create new systems for the trading of low-liquidity assets.

They had run two separate trials and concluded that digital ledger technology “has the potential to transform capital market structure by encouraging new business development, improving operation efficiency, and contributing to cost reduction”.

JPX is also working on trials with Nomura Research Institute (NRI) to examine how blockchain technology could be applied in the securities market.

Korea Exchange Exchange (KRX)

South Korea’s securities exchange operator the Korea Exchange (KRX) launched a blockchain-powered platform for the off-board trading market, linking sellers and buyers to trade securities. This platform named Korea Start-up Market (KSM), is an OTC- platform for using blockchain technology to enable equity shares of startup companies to be traded in the open market. South Korea’s exchange was revealed to be developing a blockchain platform to facilitate securities trading between buyers and sellers, directly, as early as March 2016.

The new feature will see its roll-out by implementing a blockchain platform called ‘Coinstack’, developed by Korean startup Blocko. With a focus on document and identity authentication, Coinstack is serviced both via cloud and on location, while supporting all protocols and applications build on the blockchain technology.

“This is the first example of commercialization in which blockchain is applied to the Korean over-the-counter market. Notably, the Coinstack development platform supports both Bitcoin blockchain-based contracts and Ethereum-based smart contracts.” Blocko CEO Won-Beom Kim

London Stock Exchange (LSE)

The London Stock Exchange (LSE) has emerged as one of the most active on blockchain technology. In late 2015, the exchange was already among a cross-industry group of institutions investigating how blockchain technology could be used to change the way securities trades are cleared, settled and reported in Europe. The group — named Post Trade Distributed Ledger Working Group — also includes UBS, CME Group, Societe Generale, LCH.Clearnet and Euroclear. The consortium, which is particularly interested in using blockchain for post-trade processes, now has nearly 40 members.

If you want to read about more stock exchanges please refer to the full list in Carlo de Meijer’s article on LinkedIn.

Open positions of exchanges towards blockchain technology

The number of exchanges worldwide that is joining the many financial institutions in the blockchain and distributed ledger technology race is continuously growing. The potential to enable stock exchanges to significantly reduce the cost, complexity and increase the speed of trading and settlement processes in a secure manner, has attracted many exchanges worldwide to explore this new technology. However, it remains to be seen whether blockchain will soon be accepted by exchanges on a large scale and form the backbone of future stock exchanges. This given the many remaining challenges. But the optimism is certainly high. For the time being stock exchanges are taken open positions.

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

How to convince a manager as a treasurer

| 17-7-2017 | Theo Paardekooper |

Management decisions are generally made based on analysis of data. However, this statement is far from correct. Arguments count, too. However, having the correct arguments does not mean that they are convincing. Being right is not the same as getting what you want.

How is this possible? If you are in full control of this principle, every action will become a success. To understand this principle we have to get involved in the world of behavioral finance. It is the cross section of economics and psychology. As a treasurer or financial professional you have to discuss issues regularly with your management and some background on this topic might come handy now and then.

One of the main biases is the risk appetite of a human being. People are risk averse if they can get a profit, but they are risk minded to make a profit to reduce former losses.

Another bias is about the difference between perceived risk and actual risks. A human being expects that small risky events will occur more often, than high-risk events. For this reason people buy a lot of insurance products that will cover these small risks, like travelling insurance, biking insurance, etc. Also the success of big lotteries is linked to this bias. The chance to win a million Euro’s in a lottery is as big as the risk to get involved in a car accident.

Decision-making is highly influenced by former experience. This can create a bounded awareness on the topic. People can get overconfident about their opinion or over-optimistic about the likelihood of outcomes of actions. People who are overconfident are often surprised, while people who are over-optimistic are often disappointed.

Every human being is influenced by bounded awareness. Just take a look at the example.

Didn’t you spot the gorilla? If you didn’t don’t be ashamed; almost half of all people don’t see it.

Decision-making is often a group process. Groups have effect on decision making by itself.

Just take a look at the following experiment.

It is hard to understand but from a behavioural perspective it is not important to know why, but it is important to know how. If you can use these non-rational principles to influence the decision making process, it will help you to convince everyone.

Are you convinced, if not, I probably forgot some other non-rational principles…

 

Theo Paardekoper 

Independent treasury specialist