Foreign currency hedging, a protection of cash flow

| 25-10-2017 | Rob Beemster |

Currency volatility is a well-known uncertain component of international business. In the pre-euro era one could suffer severely by currency movements of its European neighbours. Corporations, dealing within euro countries, have diminished the currency exposure.

A historical overview of the euro versus the us dollar

Looking back over the last 60 years, we can see that from 1958 till early 1970s there was  stability due to the Bretton Woods golden standard. At the end of this, the Vietnam War made it impossible to keep the dollar relation to gold. Early 1980s, the Reagan administration introduced a new economic policy; Reaganomics. Lower taxes and high governmental expenditure. This created a huge mess in America’s monetary situation. Interest rates went to enormous heights, the dollar climbed to unknown levels against the yen and European currencies. American exporters could not sell their products due to this high dollar.

Why the attention to Reaganomics? Well, the Trump administration is a vigorous trailer of the Reagan policy. Lower taxes might be introduced soon and Mr Trump also wants to invest heavily in infrastructure. Obvious, some similarities with Reagan. The new helm of the Federal Reserve Board will soon be appointed. When the board will have more hawks than doves, interest rates might raise sooner than expected. This might have consequences for the dollar and we may see here a reflection of the early 1980s.

 Trump and the us dollar

It is known that President Trump regularly protests to so-called currency manipulators like China and Germany. Their trade policies are in his view unacceptable. Due to this view of Trump on currencies, it will be questionable whether he would tolerate a higher dollar at all. The highly unpredictable Trump policy makes it impossible to judge in what direction the dollar will manoeuvre.

 The highly volatile euro/us dollar

The dollar has fluctuated severely since the euro introduction in 1999. ECB’s first President, Mr Duisenberg was facing tough times as the euro went from its introduction level of 1.17 to the low of 0.8350 a couple of years later. His world trip to recommend the euro as world reserve currency  has realized a demand from authorities to stock euro’s in their currency reserve system. The aggressive build-up of FX reserves by Asian monetary authorities has helped to revitalize the euro. Duisenberg made it happen that the currency went up from low 0.80s to almost 1.60 against us dollar in a couple of years. This occurred not so long ago!

 Two examples of neglected currency risk

1, many corporations have changed its landscape to the global market. A lot of exporters are billing their products in euros. A currency risk is obvious when these companies focus on one target area. Clients may find the products too expensive when euro is rising. So one runs indirectly a currency risk. Many countries have linked their currency to the dollar, so a change in the euro/us dollar may have consequence on your sales.

2, trading with China and agreeing to do the transfer in dollars, does not really mean that the risk exposure is in dollars. The transfer risk is in dollars, but the real currency risk is in yuan. Say, the European importer buys goods from China and both have agreed to do the payments in dollars. The Chinese counterparty will adjust the price of the goods when yuan moves against the dollar. The European corporation should install an us dollar/yuan currency risk hedging policy.

Don’t underestimate the course of currencies

Being an active international corporation is not easy, many components are changing markets constantly. Internet makes markets more transparent then ever thought, automation changes the landscape, consumer behaviour is sometimes not logical and newcomers/interrupters create new markets. Within this one has to deal with currency volatility. But this is a component one can conduct. Foreign currency strategy is essential for any internationally active corporation. Currency volatility cannot be underestimated and needs control.

Barcelona valuta experts can help you to create a decent foreign currency strategy. Call us on +31.654981315 or mail us via [email protected] for more information.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

GDPR and its effect on your business

| 24-10-2017 | treasuryXL |

As if the finance industry is not already facing enough challenges swimming though the sea of regulatory acronyms – BASEL iii, EMIR, MIFID ii, SOX, KYC etc. – a new directive is due to come into force on the 25th May 2018, namely GDPR.

GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) is an EU directive concerning personal data of EU residents that is held by companies. It is intended to give EU residents more control over their personal data by dictating how that data is held by companies. Any data that could be used to determine the identity of an individual must comply with GDPR. Furthermore the definition of personal data has been expanded from the usual name and address information to including such things as IP addresses, cookie data, photographs, minutes from a meeting where people are named etc.

The law states that any company that stores or processes personal data about EU citizens within EU states must comply with GDPR. Main criteria for compliance include:

  • A presence in any EU country
  • No presence in the EU, but processes personal data of EU residents
  • More than 250 employees

At first glance most small businesses would be exempt but, there is a provision in Article 30 that shows this is not completely true. The following explanation has been externally sourced:

The only time the articles allow concessions for organisations with fewer than 250 employees is in Article 30 – Records of processing activities. Most organisations will have to maintain a record of processing activities that contains the name and contact details of the controller, the reason for the processing, a description of the type of personal data or category being processed, how long the data will be kept before it will be deleted, and some other requirements.

 Point 5 of Article 30 states that the requirements will not apply to an enterprise or an organisation employing fewer than 250 persons unless the processing it carries out is likely to result in a risk to the rights and freedoms of data subjects, the processing is not occasional, or the processing includes special categories. Therefore, a company that processes data on a regular basis or processes special category content such as racial, political or genetic (and others listed in Article 9) material, even if quite small, will not be excluded from this requirement.

Source: https://www.fsb.org.uk/first-voice/act-now-to-comply-with-new-gdpr-rules

Even sole traders hold data, not just of other companies (trading partners) but also of individuals. As a sole trader it is possible to think that the law does not apply to them, but a more prudent approach would be to review all data held. Data can be held in a myriad of locations:

  • Hard drives
  • USB sticks
  • Dropbox
  • Cloud
  • Evernote
  • Whats App

Having discovered all the data the you hold on others, it is then necessary to design a method to protect that data. Just applying a password protection to your computer is not enough – additional security can be provided by encrypting data.

The rights of the individual are clearly defined by GDPR – these include:

  • The right to be informed
  • The right to restrict processing
  • The right to refuse to become a data subject
  • The right to be forgotten
  • Data portability

The penalties for companies failing to comply with GDPR and failure to disclose data breaches include fines equivalent to 4% of global annual turnover for the preceding financial year or EUR 20 million, whichever is the greater.

What can you do to prepare for GDPR?            

All companies that handle client data have a duty to protect that data. That means you need to locate, identify, control and delete data if so requested by the individual. Furthermore, individuals have the right to know how and why companies are using their personal data and if that data is shared with any third parties.

This means starting with a thorough examination to find and identify all third party data that you hold and why. This data then needs to be examined and protected. Data should be held at 1 primary source – ensure data is not duplicated. Clients need to be informed of the data you hold on them.

Whilst this is a considerable challenge, there is a potential advantage to be gained by clients knowing that you are complying which could lead to a rise in the trust they have in you and your organization.

Remember – you only have about 150 working days left to implement!!

Will the ECB taper off its Quantitative Easing programme?

| 23-10-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

On the 26th October the ECB will have their next meeting. One of the main topics will be regarding the current QE programme and a possible announcement over its extension into 2018. Currently the ECB has, after 2 ½ years of QE, purchased more than EUR 2 trillion of mainly Government bonds. At present their monthly purchases amount to roughly EUR 60 billion per month.

A poll organized by Reuters would seem to indicate that the monthly programme would be tapered down to EUR 30-50 billion per month and possibly last for another 6 to 12 months from the start of 2018. Inflation is expected to be around 1.5 per cent till at least the start of 2019 – below the ECB target of just below 2 per cent.

However, under the current rules that govern the QE progamme the upper limit on outstanding purchases is around EUR 2.5 trillion. Taking the existing monthly purchases through to the end of 2017, implies starting 2018 with a balance of at least EUR 2.2 trillion – leaving just EUR 300 billion of headroom for future purchases. If it cut monthly purchases in half, the scheme could be extend to the end of the 3rd quarter in 2018, but no further.

Can the ECB continue QE longer than expected?

The constraints imposed on QE mainly relate to the purchase of Government bonds – maximum 33 per cent of each countries outstanding debt and maximum 25 per cent of any bond issue. The provisions written into the Maastricht Treaty clearly state that the ECB may not finance member states. QE also purchases non-bank bonds (covered bonds, corporate bonds and asset backed securities) which are subject to different criteria – maximum of 70 per cent of any bond issue.
At present, the ECB only holds about 13 per cent of the eligible bonds leaving a large headroom for future possible purchases.

It is conceivable that the ECB could reduce its purchase of Government bonds and simultaneously increase its purchase of corporate bonds, thereby maintaining liquidity to its QE programme. The major drawback is that it would reduce the amount of freely tradable corporate bonds in circulation and have an effect on their price.

What does this mean for interest rates?

As long term debt instruments use Government bond yields as the basis for calculating their yield, when the ECB stops buying Government bonds, the yields on all other debt instruments will increase. At the moment the benchmark (German 10 year Government bonds) yield around 0.4 per cent per annum and the 10 year Interest Rate Swap yields around 0.9 per cent per annum. In 2014 (the year before QE started) German yields averaged 1.25 per cent even though they were in a downward trend the whole year. Assuming the yield spread between Government bonds and Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) remained constant, this implies 10 year IRS moving to at least 1.75 per cent. This would still be below the long term average since the inception of the EURO in 1999 that stands around 3.35 per cent, but a significant increase from the current level of 0.9 per cent.

What happens when the next crisis arrives?

The ECB is not the only central bank to use a form of QE. The Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all have their own versions. When these countries also taper out their QE, naturally there will be a corresponding rise in interest rates. However, if a new financial crisis was suddenly to happen (not unthinkable at the moment) all 3 of these central banks can reapply QE to stimulate their economies. An additional increase to their balance sheets can be accommodated.

Unfortunately for the ECB the very criteria that now applies would make it impossible to restart QE. The ECB could not just increase its balance sheet – current criteria and regulation make that impossible. Any attempt to change the rules would be met by objections from national governments within the EU and legal action. The Bundesbank were very vocal in their objections to the implementation of QE in 2015 – those protests will not have softened by now.

This shows the constraints prevalent upon the EURO – monetary policy is the only tool that the ECB has at its disposal. One policy can not be used to fix all the problems present with the economies of all member states.

 

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

Voorlichtingsavond PGO Treasury Management & Corporate Finance

| 20-10-2017 | Robert Dekker |

Logo - VU AmsterdamOp donderdag 9 november 2017 vindt de voorlichtingsavond voor de Postgraduate opleidingen, waaronder de opleiding Treasury Management & Corporate Finance, van de School of Business and Economics van de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam plaats.

Deze voorlichtingsavond is bedoeld voor geïnteresseerden die per 1 februari 2018 willen instromen. Dat kan, omdat wij de opleiding modulair georganiseerd hebben, dat ons in staat stelt 2 keer per jaar studenten te laten instromen namelijkper 1 september en per 1 februari.

Een ieder die geïnteresseerd is in de opleiding is van harte welkom om een indruk van de opleiding te krijgen en kennis te maken met de programmadirectie, docenten en (ex-)studenten.

De ontvangst is om 18.00 uur in de Foyer van de Agorazalen. Vanaf 18.30 uur vinden de voorlichtingsrondes plaats. Om 20.30 uur begint de voorlichting voor de opleiding Treasury Management & Corporate Finance. Na afloop is er gelegenheid om vragen te stellen.

Programma
18.00 uur > Ontvangst met koffie/thee en broodjes
18.30 uur > Voorlichtingsronde 1
19.30 uur > Voorlichtingsronde 2
20.30 uur > Voorlichtingsronde 3 – Treasury Management & Corporate Finance (RT)
Na afloop > Gelegenheid tot vragen stellen

Locatie
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Agorazalen, De Boelelaan 1105 (hoofdgebouw, 3e etage)

Aanmelden en informatie
Wij weten graag vooraf op hoeveel mensen we kunnen rekenen. Aanmelden kan via VU PGO voorlichtingsavond

Voor vragen/contact
Nicole Lijs
Postgraduate opleiding Treasury Management & Corporate Finance
020-598 2171/ [email protected]

Robert Dekker – Program director postgraduate program treasury & corporate finance at the VU University

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Introduction core team Treasurer Development

| 19-10-2017 | treasuryXL  | Treasurer Development |

Earlier we informed you about the Treasurer Development initiative. The members of the core team of Treasurer Development aim to contribute to raising the professional level of corporate treasury and increase acceptance and recognition of corporate treasury. Starting point for them is the treasurer as a person.

 

In the kick off meeting a core team was created; these are the members:

  • Janneke Nonkes, former group treasurer and coach
  • Robert Dekker, manager of the post graduate Register Treasurer program at the Free University in Amsterdam and treasury consultant at KPMG
  • Frans Boumans, responsible for the minor treasury management program at the University of Applied Sciences in Utrecht and former banker
  • Pieter de Kiewit, recruitment consultant and owner of Treasurer Search

All core team members work independently in this initiative. They do not represent each other or treasuryXL as a core team member. They aim to inspire, inform and deliver positive criticism. The opinions expressed by a member of the core team are attributed to that person and these opinions are independent and not necessarily shared and/or endorsed by all the other members. treasuryXL  is the communication platform for Treasurer Development. Blogs, discussions, round table meetings, curriculum build-up and adviser are all results that can and will be the result of Treasurer Development.

First initiative coming from Treasurer Development is a cooperation between Frans Boumans and treasuryXL. All of us will start blogging on related topics. Janneke and Pieter will develop a free of charge telephone quick scan in which treasurers can brainstorm about their career development. Robert will inform you shortly about curriculum developments in the Register Treasurer program. Both the Hogeschool Utrecht and the Vrije Universiteit will want to brainstorm with you about guest lecturing, internships and graduation projects.

So far, the first responses on this initiative are very positive. We are open for suggestions and look forward to informing you further.

treasuryXL

[icon icon=”envelope” color=”” size=”tiny” with_circle=”0″ link=””] [email protected]
[icon icon=”phone” color=”” size=”tiny” with_circle=”0″ link=””] 06-21303744

 

Alternative Payment Providers

| 18-10-2017 | treasuryXL | The Paypers |

Traditionally, banks provided the infrastructure to enable payments to take place. Nowadays, there are many different third party online payment services that compete directly with the bank models. We came across an interesting article detailing the rise of a mobile payment platform with a large customer base in China, which is bigger than well-known services such as Paypal. It is part of the Alibaba Group who already have a large presence in Europe via AliExpress – after making a large impact on European online shopping, will they make an impact on the payments systems?

With a customer base 400 million strong, Alipay alone represents 50% of all online shopping in China. As the number of Chinese tourists in Europe increases by 100% annually, this tool is offering a wealth of business opportunities for retailers and e-merchants.

An ultra-simple virtual wallet

From taxi fare to the water bill, to purchases in small shops, or traffic tickets—online as well as in the physical world—Alipay can be used for almost any transaction. Such incredible flexibility puts this e-wallet at the centre of daily life in China. Witness the staggering figures: over 175 million transactions per day, peaking at one billion orders processed on 11th November 2016, dubbed “Singles Day,” a huge shopping fest organised by Ali Baba since 2009.

Please read more by referring to the original article on The Paypers.

Cybersecurity & corporate treasury – not your favourite, but beware!

| 17-10-2017 | Pieter de Kiewit |

We all have these topics we know are important but never get the highest priority. Until it is too late. Cybersecurity is one of them. Do you want to be the treasurer named in the newspapers? Finding examples and input on-line is not hard. Only this morning these articles popped up through LinkedIn:

“Hackers steal $60 million from Taiwanese bank using bespoke malware”. This is about SWIFT, technology used by many in the corporate treasury environment. This is not to shame SWIFT, what can happen with them, most likely can with other service providers.

Input from this mentioned article specifically has a focus on corporate treasury. What I think is interesting in their input: it is not only about malware. They also mention “social engineering”.

Now what to do? We all know many service providers step forward to guarantee security. Your time and budget is always a restraint. 100% security is an illusion. We will not decide for you. Perhaps we can help you start by browsing through who is offering solutions:

  • The ACT is organising an event at the end of this month:
    “This highly interactive two-day course will take you through the process of building a secure treasury environment. It covers all the essentials, from the creation of a framework of policy and delegated authority, to the way treasury should be organised to ensure maximum control of its activities. You will learn about front, middle and back office functions, regulatory requirements, controls and security essential to managing treasury and you will debate the key issues of control failure. You will learn how to create a secure environment in which treasury transactions can be managed and carried out with minimum risk of fraud or error. You will, be able to judge the adequacy of any security arrangements and make or recommend necessary changes. You will also learn how to effectively plan and execute a risk- based treasury audit that adds value and helps identify early warning signals of potential problems.”
  • Software suppliers like Reval are stepping in, offering technology connected to consultancy. Their article is an easy read, gathering a first glance.
  • And of course consultants are happy to step in. This article of PwC might give you a first idea. Consultancy fees are quite steep. A known sales strategy of consultants is describing scenarios that make you stay awake at night. Are you willing to take the risk or consider “an amateur”.

We will further inform you about the topic in the future. We wish you low risk and high wisdom.

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

 

IBM: International Blockchain Model of the future?

| 16-10-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

According to a recent Juniper Research study “Blockchain Enterprise Survey”, IBM is seen as the number one provider of blockchain to business, well ahead of its competitors. These results are based on a survey of 400 business users from organisations actively considering, or in the process of deploying blockchain technology. Of the surveyed 43% ranked IBM first, followed by Microsoft (20%) and Accenture.

IBM is better positioned than competitors as far as its blockchain credentials are concerned. The study noted that IBM’s high-profile research development efforts and use of Hyperledger “helped push it to the number one spot”. IBM has been making considerable steps forward not only by research. Also with the development of a great number of projects aimed at broadening the scope of distributed ledger technology to include industries other than the financial services, including asset tracking, logistics, healthcare and the music industry.

Though this blog will especially focus on IBM, I will start showing the main differences between its main rival, Microsoft and that of IBM in their blockchain approach.

IBM versus Microsoft: different approaches

IBM and Microsoft are now intensively working to become the dominant commercial blockchain-as-a-service (BaaS) platform. They are positioning themselves in the middle of a “frenzy” of blockchain projects and partnerships.

While Microsoft has been adding blockchain modules to its cloud platform Azure already since 2015, IBM launched the first commercial application of blockchain named IBM Blockchain just in March this year. Both systems seem similar on the surface: modular, operate in the cloud, based on open-source code, with massive ecosystems. Both are decentralized ledgers that can be used to manage and validate almost any type of transactions.

Different visions

But on closer inspection it is clear they have different visions for blockchain technology. Both are They thereby are taking decidedly different paths. These two big tech corporates are …

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

Werkkapitaalbeheersing bij professionele servicesorganisaties: de olie voor uw (economische) motor!

| 13-10-2017 | CFO Netwerk |

Waarom aandacht voor werkkapitaalbeheersing? Professionele services organisaties zoals advocaten, accountants maar ook andere tijd schrijvende organisaties kenmerken zich door een uiterst loyale cliënt opstelling. Loyaal in de zin dat de cliënt vraag centraal staat en dat deze vraag zo spoedig mogelijk beantwoord dient te worden. Als het probleem van de cliënt is opgelost is de professional tevreden. Op zich is daar niets mis mee. Maar dan……..

Nadat het probleem naar tevredenheid is opgelost wordt er pas gekeken naar de vraag of de diensten die door de professional zijn geleverd gedeclareerd c.q. gefactureerd kunnen worden en als laatste ook betaald kunnen worden door de cliënt. Met dit laatste houdt de professional zich het liefste niet bezig, dat lost de financiële administratie en debiteurenbeheer wel op.

Deze wijze van cliënt benadering heeft tot gevolg dat veel van dergelijke services organisaties een beroep op bijvoorbeeld de bank moeten doen om hun financiële huishouding rond te krijgen. Maar bankfinanciering kent uiteraard ook haar grenzen. De organisatie zou deze vastliggende liquiditeit veel beter kunnen aanwenden voor de groei van de organisatie, investeringen in nieuwe competenties en vernieuwing van het bedrijfs/business model.

Werkkapitaal is niet het domein van Finance alleen, maar dient integraal benaderd te worden.
Wie zijn werkkapitaal onder controle houdt, beheerst niet alleen de korte termijn liquiditeit, maar investeert ook in continuïteit.

Wat wordt verstaan onder werkkapitaal en cash conversion cycle?

Werkkapitaal

In de theorie zijn veel definities te vinden. Bij professionele services organisaties wordt onder werkkapitaal met name het onderhanden werk en het uitstaande debiteurensaldo verstaan. In dit kader wordt geabstraheerd van de crediteurenpositie (DPO Days Payable Outstanding) omdat het grootste probleem bij professionele services organisaties zich met name in het onderhanden werk (DIO Days Inventory Outstanding) en debiteuren (DSO Days Sales Outstanding) bevindt.
Werkkapitaal dient niet geïsoleerd binnen finance beschouwd te worden, maar integraal en passend bij de strategie van de onderneming: het gaat erom daadwerkelijk te doorgronden welke processen uiteindelijk een impact hebben op welke manier we zo goed mogelijk ‘goed’ werkkapitaal kunnen genereren. Sta kredieten toe aan goede cliënten die veel en /of winstgevende diensten afnemen die op tijd betalen en die passen in de toekomstvisie van uw bedrijf. Met andere woorden: de absolute waarde van werkkapitaal is niet zo belangrijk, enkel het hefboomeffect naar winst is van belang.

Een beter credo is: investeer in ‘goed’ werkkapitaal

Cash conversion cycle (CCC)

Elke component van werkkapitaal heeft twee dimensies: geld en tijd. Met effectief werkkapitaalbeheer schenken we ook aandacht aan de tijdsdimensie, aan de snelheid waarin een component van het werkkapitaal roteert. Dit wordt ook wel de cash conversion
cycle genoemd, hetgeen in de volgende figuur wordt weergeven:

Hoe lager het aantal dagen CCC, hoe beter u het werkkapitaal in de hand heeft en dat biedt de volgende 5 voordelen:
1. minder werkkapitaal;
2. hogere rentabiliteit;
3. meer activiteit met zelfde kapitaal,;
4. hogere solvabiliteit;
5. en goedkoper lenen.

Cash is King

Dit artikel is eerder verschenen op CFO Netwerk en is geschreven door Rob van de Ven.

Entering the Financial Markets Data environment – Review Screen Market Event

| 12-10-2017 | Pieter de Kiewit |

Last Tuesday Screen Consultants organized her annual event for the 25th time. An excellent opportunity to put the topic of financial market data on the treasuryXL agenda trough layman’s eyes.

There are a few obvious reasons why a corporate treasurer should pay attention to market data:

  • “Using old market data is like betting on a horse after the race is run”. Buying currencies and commodities without up-to-date market knowledge is burning money;
  • Accurate market data is essential in proper bookkeeping, especially in the current regulatory framework;
  • Information is one of the essential components in the pricing of financial products;
  • Knowing about the various developments influencing markets will help you create a strategy. This applies to hedging, investments but of course for the company as a whole.

With this in mind I entered the event, expecting a very dominant presence of Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, VDW, Morningstar, Moody’s and similar firms. I did not see them but was offered a fragmented, diversified group of companies and that reminded me of the European Fintech Awards. Bear in mind: the event’s main audience are financial service providers like asset managers. Corporate treasury is for most of the providers a small portion of their client portfolio at best. Especially for the treasury with substantial excess cash, commodity traders and other heavy users going to this event will be inspiring.

For me in many of the parallel sessions, there was most to be learned. These are a few of the eye-openers I would like to share with you. “Market data is in the top 3 cost drivers at financial service providers”, “the margins of providers did not suffer under the crisis and are relatively high”, “Regulatory changes like Mifid2 will have a huge impact on the industry”. The sessions made clear that investing in understanding how markets work before you acquire data is essential. An example that stood out is the impact analyst reports have on markets, regardless the quality of their research.

I want to conclude with two questions. First, tell us about your experience in this field, perhaps the treasuryXL readers deserve more (blogs). Second, experts in this field working in financial services are being trained and certified. I think the full training would be too much but perhaps we can ask partners to develop a tailor made corporate program. As the users know, a data terminal is easily €2,000/month. The type of investments should be managed by knowledgeable staff.

Thank you for your replies,

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search