Rainy day funds and moral hazards
| 28-03-2018 | treasuryXL |
Christine Lagarde – the chief of the IMF – stated recently that the Eurozone countries should set up a “rainy day” fund that could be used to protect the countries in a time of economic turmoil. As the IMF is seen as the lender of last resort to the world, her words carry weight. Economies are subject to a cyclical motion – going from bad to good and then back down again. Her opinion is that closer integration is needed between the Eurozone countries to protect them from the inevitable downturn when it arrives.
Closer Integration
To achieve this target, it would require at least the following steps:
- Closer banking union – more mergers
- Unified capital market
- Universal deposit protection scheme that is pan-european
- Integration towards a common tax system
Her speech closely echoes that of her fellow countryman – President Macron. However, whilst receiving support from Mrs. Merkel when making his remarks, he also met with objections from other member states. Countries such as the Netherlands and Sweden voiced their objection to what they perceived as “far reaching” policies, whilst ignoring the fundamental problems and issues within the Eurozone. Their concerns are centred around the public perception of the Eurozone – there has been a growing tide of populist sentiment expressed at recent general elections, together with the continued fallout from the financial and sovereign debt crises that has impacted on the economic well being of the citizens.
Implementation of this policy – according to the IMF – would entail an annual contribution of about 0.30-0.35% of GDP per member state into a common fund. This fund would then pay out in the event of an economic downturn. Given the aforementioned level of disenchantment among citizens, it would not be easy to implement this policy within every member state. Furthermore, whilst pay outs would be conditional on member states meeting certain criteria, the Eurozone has shown in the past that their criteria has been ignored and no sanctions were enforced.
This common fund, whilst being ring fenced, could have an impact on the functioning of financial markets. Just knowing that there is a fund that needs to earn a return could led to distortions in money markets. Also, who decides when a member state can draw down from the fund – the EU, the ECB, majority decision of member states?
And then there is the potential problem of moral hazard. A country could pursue policies that are imprudent, safe in the knowledge that there was a communal fund to save them. Given the record of certain member states since even before the inception of the Euro to deceive, this is not a matter to be taken lightly. Even when countries have be found to have cheated they have always received the help that they need, regardless of all the stated criteria that are in place. Countries that are performing well will have to pay proportionally more into the fund than countries whose economies are not doing so well.
10 years since the start of the crisis and almost 20 years since the introduction of the Euro, we are no closer to a collective harmony than before.
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Almost a year ago I wrote my blog “Blockchain and the Ripple effect: did it Ripple?”. Now twelve months later we may conclude it did. And even more than that. Ripple is making many waves. A lot happened both in broadening their offerings and in enlarging their network. A growing number of banks and payment providers, increasingly join RippleNet, Ripple’s decentralized global network, to “process cross-border payments efficiently in real time with end-to-end tracking and certainty”. By using the growing set of Ripple solutions they are able to expand payments offerings into new markets that are otherwise too difficult or too expensive to reach. The focus of Ripple therefor has especially moved towards emerging markets.
On 15th March 2018, Unilever announced its decision to domicile its headquarters exclusively in the Netherlands. This will lead to Unilever having a single legal base for the first time. Traditionally, Unilever had 2 holding companies – Unilever NV, registered and domiciled in Rotterdam the Netherlands, and Unilever PLC, registered and domiciled in Port Sunlight, England. There were 2 head offices – one in Rotterdam and the other in London. Unilever was formed in 1930 by the merger between Margarine Unie and Lever Brothers and has a dual listing in both the AEX and the FTSE index. The 2 companies operate as a single business. What are the reasons behind this decision and what are the consequences?
Met het huidige nieuws rond beursgangen (IPOs = initial public offering) heb ik gezocht op het steekwoord beursgang op treasuryXL en vond geen resultaten. Wellicht omdat de treasury beroepsgroep communiceert in het Engels. Voor Non-Treasurers ga ik bij deze kort in op de basisbeginselen van een beursgang en waarom hier zoveel aandacht voor bestaat.
Treasury Intelligence Solutions GmbH (TIS)- a partner of treasuryXL, are organising a very engaging event that is being held in Amsterdam on Tuesday 27th March 2018, for corporate treasury. We have been kindly invited to attend and shall report back to you later, with our thoughts and experiences on what promises to be an interest evening. Read on for more information about this event and sign up if you find this event relevant to you and your company.
On Tuesday 13th March 2018, RTL Z – a television channel – broadcast a “Cryptoshow” to explain how the Blockchain works and what it could mean for the future. They attempted to make the technology and information as simple as possible to show what uses the Blockchain could have in the world for consumers and businesses. One of the main areas of interest relates to Smart contracts. What are they? What are the advantages and disadvantages? What changes can they bring?
Whenever entering into transactions with banks, both parties need to know and understand what they are trading. A relatively simple transaction like a FX spot has few terms – you buy one currency against selling another currency at an agreed rate and an agreed settlement date. The only other major factor relates to where the settlement has to take place – on what bank account are you receiving and to what bank account do you have to pay the counter currency. 

