Best read articles of all time – PSD 2: a lot of opportunities but also big challenges (Part I)

| 15-05-2018 | François de Witte |

The Directive 2015/2366 on payment services in the internal market (hereinafter PSD2) was adopted by the European Parliament on October 8, 2015, and by the European Union (EU) Council of Ministers on November 16, 2015. The PSD2 updates the first EU Payment Services Directive published in 2007 (PSD1), which laid the legal foundation for the creation of an EU-wide single market for payments. PSD2 came into force on January 13, 2016, and is applicable from January 13, 2018 onwards. By that date the member states must have adopted and published the measures necessary to implement it into their national law.

PSD 2

PSD2 will cause important changes in the market and requires a thorough preparation. In this article, we are summarizing the measures and highlighting the impact on the market participants. In today’s Part I we will focus on abbreviations and main measurers introduced by PSD2.

List of abbreviations used in this article

2FA    : Two-factor authentication

AISP  :  Account Information Service Provider

API : Application Programming Interface

ASPSP : Account Servicing Payment Service Provider

EBA :  European Banking Authority

EBF :  European Banking Federation

EEA :  European Economic Area

PISP :  Payment Initiation Service Provider

PSD1:  Payment Services Directive 2007/64/EC

PSD2  :  Revised Payment Services Directive (EU) 2015/2366

PSP : Payment Service Provider

PSU:   Payment Service User

RTS : Regulatory Technical Standards (to be issued by the EBA)

SCA : Strong Customer Authentication

TPP :  Third Party Provider

Main Measures introduced by PSD2:

The  PSD2 expands the reach of PSD1, to the following payments:

  • Payments in all currencies (beyond EU/EEA), provided that the two PSP (Payment Service Provider) are located in the EU /EEA (two legs)
  • Payments where at least one PSP (and not both anymore)  is located within EU borders for the part of the payment transaction carried out in the EU/EEA (one leg transactions)

A second important measure is the creation of the Third Party Providers (TPP). One of the main aims of the PSD2 is to encourage new players to enter the payment market and to provide their services to the PSU (Payment Service Users). To this end, it creates the obligation for the ASPSP (Account Servicing Payment Service Provider – mainly the banks) to “open up the bank account” to external parties, the so-called, third-party account access. These TPP (Third Party Providers) are divided in two types:

·        AISP (Account Information Service Provider) : In order to be authorized, an AISP is required to hold professional indemnity insurance and be registered by their member state and by the EBA. There is no requirement for any initial capital or own funds. The EBA (European Banking Authority) will publish guidelines on conditions to be included in the indemnity insurance (e.g. the minimum sum to be insured), although it is as yet unknown what further conditions insurers will impose.

·        PISP (Payment Initiation Service Providers): PISPs are players that can initiate payment transactions. This is an important change, as currently there are not many payment options that can take money from one’s account and send them elsewhere. The minimum requirements for authorization as a PISP are significantly higher. In addition to being registered, a PISP must also be licensed by the competent authority, and it must have an initial and on-going minimum capital of EUR 50,000.

Banks will have to implement interfaces, so they can interact with the AISPs and PISPs. However, payment initiation service providers will only be able to receive information from the payer’s bank on the availability of the funds on the account which results in a simple yes or no answer before initiating the payment, with the explicit consent of the payer. Account information service providers will only receive the information explicitly consented by the payer and only to the extent the information is necessary for the service provided to the payer. This compliance with PSD2 is mandatory and all banks will have to make changes to their infrastructure deployments.

A third important change is the obligation for the Payment Service Providers to place the SCA (Strong Customer Authentication) for electronic payment transactions based in at least 2 different sources (2FA: Two-factor authentication) :

  • Something which only the client knows (e.g. password)
  • A device (e.g. card reader, authentication code generating device, token)
  • Inherence (e.g. fingerprint or voice recognition)

 

The EBA (European Banking Authority will provide further guidance on this notion in a later stage. It remains to be seen whether the current bank card with pin code is sufficient to qualify as “strong customer authentication”. This “strong customer authentication” needs to take place with every payment transaction. EBA will also be able to provide exemptions based on the risk/amount/recurrence/payment channel involved in the payment service (e.g. for paying the toll on the motorway or the parking).

PSD2 also introduces some other measures:

  • Retailers will be authorized to ask to the consumers for permission to use their contact details, so as to receive the payment directly from the bank without intermediaries
  • There will be a ban on surcharges on card payments
  • There will be new limitations on the customer liability for unauthorized payment transactions

In a second article soon to be published on treasuryXL, François de Witte will focus on the impact PSD2 has on market participants. 

François de Witte – Founder & Senior Consultant at FDW Consult and Senior Expert – Product, Business development and sales manager at Isabel Group

 

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Best read articles of all time – FX Swaps vs Libor and EURIBOR: Arbitrage opportunities?

| 10-05-2018 | Rob Söentken |

fxswaps

As we are getting closer to the end of the month, end of Q2 and end of H1 of 2016, it is interesting to see financial markets are maneuvering to get the right liquidity on board for the balance sheet. Or get rid of the unwanted liquidity. For firms with liquidity in various currencies the best means for liquidity management is FX swaps.

What is an FX swap?

In a very simple definition the FX swap is like an exchange of deposits. The big advantage is that the counterparty risk is reduced due to the exchange of notional. Operationally an FX swap is booked as two FX transactions: one to convert and another to revert. The conversion rate is against the prevailing exchange rate. The reversion rate is against the conversion rate plus or minus some ‘swap points’, which reflect the interest rate differential between the respective currencies. During the tenor the exchange rate could change, which creates counterparty risk on the mark-to-market value of the reversion. Mark-to-market risk for tenors up to 1 year is still a small when compared to full notional risk.

How would an FX swap work in theory?

In diagram 1 the Libor and Euribor fixings for USD and EUR are listed for the respective tenors. Now if we would consider exchanging a USD deposit versus a EUR deposit for 1 year the cash flows would be as follows:
For the conversion date we take value spot (ie 2 days, in this case that is per June 30th) and we agree to exchange EUR 1 Mio vs USD 1.1048 Mio (because EUR 1 Mio at current spot of 1.1048 is USD 1.1048 Mio)

For the reversion date we take the value date for 1 year from today’s spot date. We calculate the following amounts including interest:

EUR 1 Mio x (1 + -0.05% x 365 / 360) =                     EUR 999,493.06

USD 1.1048 Mio x (1 + 1.20% x 365 / 360) =         USD 1,118,241.73

Dividing the USD amount by the EUR amount gives the exchange rate for the reversion on the forward date, in this case that is 1.1188089. This is called the ‘forward rate’ The difference to the spot exchange rate is 0.0140089. For simplicity reasons this is multiplied by 10,000 to 140.089. This reflects the interest differential.

When executing an FX swap the EUR amounts are kept constant for both the spot and forward dates. But the USD amounts are calculated using the spot and forward exchange rates as calculated above. Therefor the interest differential is reflected in the USD amount being different between spot and forward date.

How does it work in reality?

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, the current situation is special because we are getting close to a date special and important for balance sheet reporting. Supply and demand may push the market in a direction.

When looking at the actual FX swap rates and taking the EUR Euribor fixings as given, we can deduce the implied USD funding rates (see diagram 2). First observation is that the FX swaps appear to reflect either a substantial demand for USD from June 30th to July 1st, or a EUR supply. It is interesting to see that the 1 week fixing for EUR was not affected, while the 1 week FX swap was affected maybe 20 bppa. One reason could be the timing of the rates. Euribor is taken at one moment during the day, while FX swaps are affected by events during the day. Because wdiagram2e are looking at a single day FX swap, the annualized rate could swing a lot.

Another observation is that the interest rate differential between EUR and USD is actually bigger than implied by the fixings. For one month tenor the difference is 0.59% p.a.. It would seem possible that supply – demand forces can push FX swaps away from the deposit markets. Likely the counterparty limit constraints on pure deposits keep them from being arbitrages vs FX swaps, like they used to be many years ago.

How can a treasurer benefit from FX swaps?

Each individual and organization should determine for itself what he/she or it needs. And I do not want abstract from discussions around documentation requirements, collateral financing and administration, and the operational extra work. It seems obvious that there are opportunities to investigate.

One key area would be to look at the bid-offer spreads on cash liquidity in various currencies as provided by house-banks and compare those rates with and without using FX swaps. Also I could imagine non-house banks could be more competitive in providing FX swaps, while the counterparty risk is substantially smaller than when pure lending is concerned.

Rob Soentken

Rob Söentken

Ex-derivatives trader

 

Best read articles of all time – Beleggen in obligaties met een hoge rente – een bespiegeling

|09-05-2018 | Douwe Dijkstra – Fastned- Het Financieele Dagblad |

pile-of-money

 

Hoe interessant is beleggen in bedrijfsobligaties met een hoge rente? Hoe aantrekkelijk is deze financieringsoptie voor ondernemingen? Wij  hebben onze experts Douwe Dijkstra en Pieter de Kiewit om een kort commentaar gevraagd naar aanleiding van de obligatie uitgifte van Fastned.

 

 

Op de site van Fastned was begin december 2016 te lezen:
‘U kunt nu investeren in Obligaties Fastned met 6% rente’. Later in de maand ging de tekst verder: ‘We zijn verheugd u te kunnen mededelen dat Fastned de inschrijving is gestart voor de uitgifte van obligaties. De obligaties hebben een looptijd van 5 jaar en keren per jaar 6% rente uit. Dit is een mooie kans om (verder) te investeren in de groei van Fastned en een duurzame wereld.’
Vervolgens werden de belangrijkste kenmerken van Obligaties Fastned genoemd.
Dat de obligaties zeer gewild waren blijkt vandaag. Op de site van Fastned verschijnt nu een tekst dat alle obligaties geplaatst zijn. En Fastned vervolgt:
‘Gezien de grote interesse in obligaties Fastned zijn er zeker voornemens om binnenkort nog een uitgifte te doen.’

In het Financieele Dagblad kon men op 6 december een Bartjens commentaar lezen over de Fastned obligaties:  Het principe is simpel: een wankel bedrijf leent geld. Beleggers willen de relatief grote kans op wanbetaling gecompenseerd zien met een behoorlijke vergoeding: dus een hoge rente. In de VS zijn junkbonds populair, hier is het een kleine markt. Maar deze week is er weer een onvervalst speculatieve obligatie uitgegeven. Fastned. Het bedrijf dat een Europees netwerk van snellaadstations voor elektrische auto’s bouwt, leende € 2,5 mln. De lening heeft een looptijd van vijf jaar. De couponrente is 6%. Ter vergelijking: de Nederlandse Staat (superveilig) leent voor vijf jaar tegen 0%, Shell (behoorlijk veilig) leent voor vijf jaar tegen een coupon van 1,25% en Gazprom (Russisch, iets minder veilig) leent in Zwitserse frank voor vijf jaar tegen 2,75%. De 6% van Fastned impliceert dus behoorlijke risico’s. Het bedrijf is klein, jong en verlieslatend. Het heeft geen reserves en een negatief eigen vermogen, zo blijkt uit het prospectus. Maar goed, ‘de cost gaet voor de baet uyt’ en juist nu moet Fastned investeren.’

Expert Douwe Dijkstra vult hierop aan:
Voor beleggen in Fastned obligaties geldt hetzelfde als voor elke andere investering. Het rendement is omgekeerd evenredig aan het risico. Zolang niemand weet of de koers van aandelen Koninklijke Olie omhoog of naar beneden gaan, weet zeker niemand of beleggen in een 6% obligatie van Fastned achteraf wel of geen goede investering zal blijken te zijn geweest. Het lijkt mij enkel aantrekkelijk voor beleggers die wel een gokje durven te wagen met een te overziene inzet die ze wel kunnen missen. Of voor beleggers met een ideologische wereldvisie. Vorige week las ik in een ander artikel nog dat die investeerders met een loep gezocht moeten worden.

En Pieter de Kiewit zegt:
Investeren in start-ups gaat mijns inziens gepaard met een andere investeringsanalyse dan in volwassen ondernemingen. Daarbij is de ‘groene factor’ voor vele beleggers reden anders naar een onderneming te kijken. Dit is bijvoorbeeld heel zichtbaar bij Tesla. Persoonlijk vraag ik me af of een avontuurlijke investeerder in dit geval niet beter een equity investering kan doen.
Vanuit Fastned perspectief kan ik, met hun vertrouwen in hun business case, begrijpen dat ze liever obligaties uitgeven dan nieuwe aandelen..

douwedijkstra

 

Douwe Dijkstra

Owner of Albatros Beheer & Management

 

Information Evening – Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

| 07-05-2018 | treasuryXL |

On Wednesday 16th May 2018, the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam will be holding an information evening for their Post Graduate programmes, including Treasury Management and Corporate Finance. This is an opportunity for anyone interested in this programme, and will allow participants to get an impression of how the programme works and meet the programme managers, teachers and (ex-) students.

Successful completion of the Post Graduate programme leads to the title of Registered Treasurer (RT). The programme focuses primarily on the practice of treasury departments of large corporations, but is also relevant in other business situations. Programme lecturers come from both the commercial world as well as the academical sphere. It is linked to the Dutch Association Corporate Treasurers (DACT) and the programme is a part time weekly course normally in small groups between 15 – 20 students.

You are welcome as of 17.30 hours. The program for the PGO Treasury Management & Corporate Financestarts at 20.00 hours. Afterwards there will be plenty of opportunity to ask questions.

Program

17.30 hrs. Walk in with coffee / tea and sandwiches

18.00 hrs. Information round 1

19.00 hrs. Information round 2

20.00 hrs. Information round 3 – Treasury Management & Corporate Finance

Location

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Agora Complex, De Boelelaan 1105 (main building, 3rd floor), Amsterdam.

VU bereikbaarheid

VU Accessibility

Register

You can register viaVU PGO Information evening

Contact

Nicole Lijs

020-5982171

[email protected]

www.sbe.vu.nl/treasury

 

 

Commercial Paper – alternative short term funding

| 03-05-2018 | treasuryXL |

Instead of just relying on banks to provide short term funding, large corporations are also able to access the European Commercial Paper market (ECP). This is an alternative market that can assist in meeting short term funding requirements. This provides a good alternative to products previously mentioned – such as lines of credit. In this article we shall look at what ECP is, how it can be issued and what the market for this paper is.

Definition

Commercial Paper is a promissory note that is unsecured with a maturity shorter than 1 year. A corporation will, initially establish a CP programme which determines the terms and conditions – such as maximum allowable issuance amount, termination date of the programme or open ended, currencies, bank dealers etc. The issue is subject to a credit rating and the paper is rated. It is also possible to issue your own paper instead of through a dealer, though this is not used as much.

Issuance

The issuer has 2 approaches: issuing paper as and when funding is needed, or being informed by the dealer that there is demand from the market for additional paper. As the paper is negotiable, clearance and settlement is provided via one of the major clearing houses – Euroclear, DTC etc. Settlement is the same as a spot transaction – taking place two working days after transacting. As ECP is in competition with other forms of short term investment, it is necessary to have an active presence in the market – lenders need to know that there is demand for their funds and issuers are in direct competition with other issuers.

Use

ECP allows issuers to fund themselves in a more flexible manner than traditional bank lending – this can be seen in both the issuance amount and the tenor of the paper. Issuers with the highest credit ratings can often achieve funding below the cost of Euribor/Libor. This allows issuers to fund a significant portion of their total funding requirements on a short term basis. As short term rates are normally lower than long term rates, this leads to a reduction in the average cost of funding. An ECP programme for as little as EUR 250 million can be established, though it is more common to see programmes for more than EUR 1 billion.

Motivation

An issuer needs to ascertain that there is a definite funding requirement and that an ECP programme can successfully be utilised. There are ongoing costs involved, so it is not just a question of setting up a programme and then leaving it there in place without using it.
An issuer needs to know if there is a true appetite in the market for their paper. No issuer wants to find that having established a programme that there is no demand for their paper.
How does the short term funding fit into the funding requirements of the issuer on the whole? Not only do they get access to cheap funds, they also gain access to potential borrowers who could be interested in supplying alternative long dated funding.

Conclusion

ECP offers a lower cost of funding, flexibility in both issuance timing and maturity, and is unsecured. As the paper is tradable, investors can always sell their paper on in the secondary market. This must be weighed up against factors such as cost of programme maintenance, reduction in lines of credit, and the fact that only top rated issuers are accepted.

For large corporations an ECP programme is attractive, but needs constant maintenance and attention. It offers an attractive bespoke alternative to traditional bank funding.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us.

 

Brexit – the impact on your business

| 02-05-2018 | Lionel Pavey |

 

As the negotiations between the EU and the UK get ever more complicated, there is a strong possibility that rather than a hard or soft Brexit there will be no agreement whatsoever. For businesses that either export to the UK or import from, this could have a fundamental impact on their survival. The Netherlands exports goods and services to the UK with a value in excess of EUR 40 billion per year; more than 200,000 jobs are directly linked with trade to the UK; Dutch capital investment in the UK is more than EUR 180 billion. We take a look at some of the key areas where business could be affected from the viewpoint of cashflows.

Foreign Exchange

It is not known how many Dutch companies actively employ a hedging policy. If GBP was to significantly get weaker, demand in the UK might fall or lead to more contracts having to be settled in GBP. However, at the same time, Dutch companies relying on components from the UK could see their suppliers having their profit margins squeezed – potentially leading to problems in maintaining and fulfilling existing contractual obligations. The biggest concern would involve increased currency volatility. If EUR/GBP does become more volatile, this could lead to clients in the UK shopping further afield to obtain the goods and services they require – leading to a drop in exports for the Netherlands. What are the alternatives available – banking in the UK; offsetting existing supply chains by changing components with UK firms etc?

Funding

At present, the UK receives EU funding and this can be the basis for investment decisions regardless of the location of the business. As this will stop when they leave, there will be an impact on companies that have a multiple presence in both countries. Changes in regulations will bring extra complexity, restrictions and possibly affect the profitability of existing business arrangements. The immediate loss of passporting rights for financial services should not be underestimated.

Supply Chain

All existing supply chains operate under the premise of the single market, with no internal quotas or tariffs. The initial affect will be seen by the imposition of trade barriers, caused by a new trade agreement. This does not just extend to trade tariffs, but also to the implementation of VAT (BTW) on B2B transactions. The dairy industry is one that could be hit especially hard. EU tariffs for non-EU countries are as high as 45 per cent on some dairy products.
Non trade barriers are also a threat – different technical standards, labelling, compliance, together with extended delays in the shipment process (as goods will need to be inspected) will add to both the cost and time of trade.

KYC

All parties will be affected – but do you know what the position is of your clients in the UK? What are their pain thresholds; are they seeking alternatives markets; are they looking for alternative suppliers; how resilient are their logistical chains to change; how will changes in law and regulations affect their operations?
There are a myriad of unanswered questions that need to be addressed – one on one – with every counterparty.

What to do

It is imperative that companies perform a Quick Scan as soon as possible to try and evaluate what their exposure is in the UK and what percentage that makes of all trade for a company. Having ascertained the exposure, it then becomes necessary to stress test the processes and try to model the results on the company by inputting new variables.

With less than 1 year to go, you will need to start very soon!!

Lionel Pavey

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

Make room for the treasury controller!

| 01-05-2018 | Pieter de Kiewit |

Cash PoolingLately we have received an increasing number of calls from companies asking about treasury controllers. For various reasons this is understandable, but they are not the easiest to find and there is appears to be quite a wide variety. Let’s elaborate.

Over the last few years, many corporates have been quite frugal in their investments, also in treasury. Times were hard. Now funds are getting available, there is willingness to hire, also treasury controllers. The rising investments in treasury IT, also related to aforementioned funds, often leads to less work for the back office and possibly also the front office. Platforms like 360T or FXAll are examples, but also algo trading. Choosing the system and taking care of what it should do and what it actually does, is often one of many tasks of the treasury controller.

The chaos in the financial markets made regulators increase the number of rules that banks and also corporates have to follow. Furthermore companies expanding globally, and funding their subsidiaries have to following strict internal and external  (fiscal and banking) rules. Implementing this framework and being compliant can also be an important task of a treasury controller.

F&A and corporate treasury have been quite well at co-existing in separate worlds and not bothering each other. F&A wants to be in control and appreciates predictability. Treasury is motivated by the dynamics of the markets and adrenaline. But companies integrate functionalities and the treasury controller will build the bridge.

Now why is the search quite hard? First of all because of the drivers mentioned in the last paragraph: the treasurer does not like too much predictability and the controller does not (want to) understand the financial markets. And having thorough knowledge of several functionalities: bookkeeping, IT, regulatory and risk management and make them work well together is not easy. Finally not many corporate treasuries are big enough for a qualified treasury controller. This leads to well paid Big4 auditors and bank controllers. And us having search assignments. Any thoughts and are you interested?

We would like to hear from you,

Pieter, Heleen and Kim

Pieter de Kiewit
[email protected] / +31 6 1111 9783

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

Hyperledger blockchain projects: from incubation to production-ready status

| 26-04-2018 | Carlo de Meijer |

Last year I wrote a blog on the Hyperledger project and what that could mean for blockchain acceptance (see my blog: Hyperledger Project: collaboration pays off, 9 April 2017). We are now almost a year later and I am wondering if they are meeting my expectations. “2017 was a milestone year for Hyperledger both for new members and for new technical breakthroughs. In 2017 we doubled our membership, gaining companies like American Express, Cisco, Daimler and Baidu, and we’re expecting more companies and organizations to join in 2018.” Brian Behlendorf, Executive Director, Hyperledger.

Many blockchain followers know the Hyperledger Fabric Framework. This is the most used one in the various trials worldwide. But in the meantime the Hyperledger community has developed a whole series of these projects and tools that are less familiar. The purpose of this blog is to get more insight into these offerings and how they are developing from the incubation to the real production-ready status.

But first of all a reminder!

The Hyperledger Project

The Hyperledger project that was launched end 2015, is the international blockchain consortium of companies and organizations hosted by the Linux Foundation. Their goal is to collectively build an open source platform for the development of blockchains. Hyperledger thereby aims to enable organizations to build robust, industry-specific applications, platforms and hardware systems to support their individual business transactions by creating enterprise grade, open source distributed ledger frameworks and code bases.

The project has attracted the attention of several large companies that were early adopters of distributed ledger technologies at that time. The consortium nearly doubled in size last year to reach almost 200 members. Today, more than 220 organizations now support the Hyperledger initiative, including leading companies in finance, banking, Internet of Things, supply chains, manufacturing and technology development.

Pros of the Hyperledger project

The Hyperledger project has a number of pros that distinct them from other blockchain consortia. First of all Hyperledger is open-source, offering a “neutral home” for incubating technology. They are developing codes as open-source and bringing enterprises together to share knowledge and experience. This may lead to much faster adoption and better solutions than if it is simply built in-house. Second, Hyperledger is not focusing on one area of appliance, but on universal use cases. The software developed at Hyperledger has been adopted in many industries including supply chain, healthcare, finance etc. But what is more important, the Hyperledger Fabric, one of the (considered) most mature, extensive, flexible and active developed frameworks, allows users to create private channels in public settings, enabling the security and privacy that is needed.

Umbrella strategy

Hyperledger operates under an “umbrella” strategy. It is set up as a specialized hub for blockchain projects that facilitates not only the development, but also the commercialization of enterprise-grade blockchain based projects. Hyperledger “incubates” and promotes blockchain technologies for business, including distributed ledgers, client libraries, graphical interfaces and smart contract engines.

This strategy nowadays encompasses a (growing) number of blockchain projects, including blockchain frameworks, in addition to a number of development tools. At the moment Hyperledger incubates nine business blockchain and distributed ledger technologies, of which five blockchain frameworks and three development tools. These are in various stages of development and cover unique blockchain applications.

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

 

Rising bond yields – winners and losers

| 25-04-2018 | treasuryXL |

It is the talk of the town – US 10 year Government bond yields are rising and testing the perceived psychological level of 3 per cent. At the same time the whole yield curve is flattening – the spreads are diminishing. There are growing concerns about rising inflation, along with fears of trade wars and rising oil prices. When the threat of inflation occurs, there is a selloff in bonds and their yield goes higher. At the same time as the yield curve is flattening there is talk of the yield curve becoming inverted which, historically, is seen as the precursor to a recession. Conflicting signals – what does it all mean?

The rise in bond yields is a global trend – the same is being seen in Europe and the UK. In the last week data from the EU zone showed that the economy appears to be slowing down – or increasing at a slower rate than was previously seen. However the effects of Quantitative Easing programmes in the different countries has led to a great divergence in rates.

  • For the period from 1999 to 2008 the average 10 year bond yields were as follows:
  • Germany 3%
  • United States 8%
  • United Kingdom 8%

 

  • For the period from 2008 to 2018 the average 10 year bond yields were:
  • Germany 7%
  • United States 5%
  • United Kingdom 5%

However at present the yields are 0.6% for Germany; 3.0% for United States; and 1.5% for United Kingdom

It is clear that the due to this large divergence the effects of rising US bond yield will have a very large impact on bond yields in other countries and the exchange rates.

Recession?

Classical economic theory states that inverted yield curves are a sign of recessions and down turns in the economy. Yield curves invert when the short term rates exceed the long term rates. However an inverted yield curve is not the cause of a recession. As the Fed has been pursuing a policy of gradual interest rate rises, it is not unrealistic to expect that to lead to a tightening over the whole curve. As investors expect short term yields to rise – leading to an eventual rise in long term rates – their area of focus changes and they position themselves by selling long dated bonds, causing a rise in long dated yields.

At the same time market analysts are saying that the global economy has reached a new departure point – there has been a significant shift in interest rate perceptions and that whilst rates can and will rise, they will not revert to the mean. However, as investors chase yield a major rise in US bond yields will impact on other bond markets. When the US bonds are yielding 400% more than their Eurozone counterparts, there are serious worries that investors will flock to the US market, unless the ECB announces the end of QE, which would lead to rising Euro yields.

There is also a possible knock on effect to the equity markets. Rising bond yields suddenly make equities less attractive. It could be that volatility is about to return and that Treasurers will need to look at their hedging policies.

SME and bank lending – a dying market?

Read more