Tag Archive for: USD

Financiële markt in Egypte

| 12-09-2016 | René Schilder |

sphinxAfgelopen weken hebben er verschillende artikelen in de internationale kranten gestaan over de lening die het IMF aan Egypte wil verstrekken. Daarbij zagen we ook de Egyptische minister van landbouw Nederland bezoeken om te leren van de Nederlandse expertise op het gebied van land- en tuinbouw. De ontwikkelingen op de financiële markt in Egypte krijgen ook meer aandacht, dus we kunnen concluderen dat het interessant is om even stil te staan hoe de lokale valuta daar is georganiseerd. Na een eerdere devaluatie in maart van dit jaar, wordt er nu alweer een volgende verwacht.

Wat zijn de kenmerken van deze munt?

De EGP is een valuta die alleen gehandeld kan worden in het land zelf (onshore). De centrale bank regelt deze markt via zogenaamde auctions. Lokale handelaren (exchange companies) en banken die een vergunning hebben, kunnen hieraan deelnemen. Deze exchange companies bedienen alleen klanten die niet met banken handelen. Bij een verzoek om US dollars te kopen en EGP te verkopen moet sinds kort wel worden aangegeven wat de achtergrond van die transactie is.

De officiële koers die gehanteerd wordt is 8,78 per USD. Door de economische crisis is de vraag naar buitenlandse valuta heel groot en zien we op de parallelmarkt (exchange companies) ook een koers van 12.5 per USD. Officieel mag de maximale marge 15 piaster zijn (8.93) volgens de regels van de centrale bank. Vorige maand heeft de overheid harde maatregelen aangenomen om een betere controle te krijgen over die parallelmarkt. Een aantal vergunningen van exchange companies is ingetrokken en er zijn flinke boetes ingesteld voor degenen die zich niet aan de regels van de centrale bank houden.

Banken die buiten Egypte zijn gevestigd, zijn uitgesloten van de onshore markt, zij kunnen alleen maar NDF handelen (offshore). Handel je met een bank die buiten Egypte is gevestigd, dan kun je wel exposure afdekken maar vindt er geen fysieke levering (settlement) plaats. Op de afloopdatum wordt het verschil in koersen tussen de onderliggende contracten verrekend; er zal geen levering van onderliggende valuta’s plaatsvinden.

Gezien de ontwikkelingen op de markt voor valuta in Egypte is het heel verstandig om goed te kijken met wie je zaken doet. Naast het grote aantal regels voor exporteurs om toegang te krijgen tot de markt in Egypte, is het nu dus ook cruciaal om naar de financiële kant te kijken. Welke marktpartijen zijn toegelaten en hoe kan ik mijn valutaconversie regelen? De verwachting is dat de lening van het IMF ook tot een aanpassing zal leiden van het huidige beleid van de centrale bank met betrekking tot de lokale munt (EGP). De marktverwachtingen gaan uit van een flexibele wisselkoers na implementatie van het IMF programma.

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reneschilder1René Schilder – Co Owner 2FX Treasury BV
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Fed Rates – Prospects of USD/INR Carry

| 09-09-2016 | Rahul Magan |

ir“Federal Reserve Rates and INR Reverse Carry”. As we understand that Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen turning Hawkish and asking for 25 Bps increase in September 2016. If we look carefully then Fed vice Chair Fisher also suggested the same and at the same time most prominent Bond Trader – Bill Gross also suggested increase of 25 Bps in September and 25 Bps in December. If this would happen then Overnight Rates of USD would move to 1% and this would be closer to Australia which is 1.5% in $ terms.

We should also appreciate the fact that both Central Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of India are moving towards Accommodative Monetary Policy. This way they would decrease the interest rates as to stimulate their economy. In that regards there are millions of thoughts but in my view Accommodative Monetary Policy is a big suicide as Japanese is a perfect example in that regards. They are doing QQE since last 2 decades but at the end need to depend upon Helicopter Money to stimulate their economy?? We all understand that Helicopter Money is nothing but Explicit Debt Monetization by BOJ for Govt of Japan.

There are multiple reports which suggest that Helicopter Money has already started in the form of Helicopter Drops by BOJ for Govt of Japan. This would surely create Reverse carry for USD/INR. We all understand that Indian Central Bank – Reserve Bank of India is now following Accommodative Monetary Policy henceforth there is a big pressure on RBI to cut present Repo Rates of 6.5% by at least 100 Bps to 5.5%. This would surely decrease the carry of INR for all Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) to invest funds in India.

One more fact which matters is the growing relevance of Indonesia where in 10 Y G Sec is trading at 7.7% and Singapore who would like to increase overnight rate to 1.35 %. If this would happen then all the funds which are scheduled to India would invest in United States who is offering 1% , Australia 1.5% , Indonesia 7.7% and upcoming Carry Currencies like Singapore offering 1.34%.

We also need to appreciate the fact that Carry Traders needs big return and specially at that time when Japanese , Swiss , Europe is in negative and also big banks like Royal Bank of Scotland , Bank of Ireland and Deutsche is asking big clients to pay negative collateral. Sitting today we are having “Quest for Yield Hunt”.

Reserve Bank of India should be well aware of the fact that if they would reduce Repo Rate by 100 Bps to 5.5% then probability of having INR moving towards Reverse Carry is 100%. This won’t appreciate INR rather would depreciate the same as less $ would park in India. We also understand that this would also increase the reliance of Indian Corporates on External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) and there would be very less funding covering Foreign Currency Non Resident Bonds (FCNR) in India which would have reciprocal impact on both USD/INR Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and Overnight Index Swaps (OIS)

On the 5th of September 2016 Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said there is still a big for Qualitative Quantitative Easing (QQE) in Japanese Economy however this time Negative Interest Rates would play a very important role in that regards. Keeping all the aforesaid factors, Currency Traders are advised to take care of the same while making trading bets involving INR. Currency Traders are advised to have Options Structures to hedge their exposures.

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Rahul Margan fotoRahul Magan – Chief Executive Officer Treasury Consulting LLP

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Follow up: Valutaoorlog

| 19-08-2016 | Simon Knappstein |

valutaoorlog

 

Gisteren publiceerden we al een artikel over de valutaoorlog die volgens een bericht in het Financieele Dagblad gaande is. De winnaar lijkt degene te zijn met de meest dalende munt. Experts Erna Erkens en René Schilder gaven hun mening over deze vermeende valutastrijd. Vandaag is FX expert Simon Knappstein aan de beurt om zijn visie met ons te delen.

 

 

Deze valutaoorlog is in 2009 begonnen door de Fed toen die besloot de wereld met een tsunami van dollars te overspoelen. Nadien volgden de BoJ en de ECB waarbij beide Centrale banken het doel om inflatie te importeren door de munt te verzwakken overduidelijk nastreefden.

Ondertussen lijkt het mes van de geldverruiming behoorlijk bot geworden. EUR/USD bevindt zich al 2,5 jaar rond de 1.10 waarmee het effect op de inflatie op jaarbasis nul geworden is. En voor de JPY lijken de factoren zoals de status als safe haven plus het uitblijven van renteverhoging in de US zwaarder te wegen dan de geldverruiming en negatieve rentes, want de JPY is in de afgelopen tijd alleen maar in waarde gestegen.

Ik verwacht dat macro-economische factoren de komende tijd verder de overhand zullen gaan krijgen over monetaire factoren bij het richting geven aan valutakoers ontwikkelingen.

Simon Knappstein - editor treasuryXL

 

Simon Knappstein

Owner of FX Prospect

 

 

Uitgelicht: Valutaoorlog

| 18-08-2016 | Erna Erkens, René Schilder |

valutaoorlogHet Britse Pond daalde sinds het Brexit referendum al zo’n 13% in waarde. Ook de Amerikaanse Dollar daalde afgelopen week tegenover alle munteenheden in waarde. Volgens het Financieele Dagblad is er een valutaoorlog gaande waarbij degene met de meest dalende munt de winnaar lijkt te zijn. (Bron: FD.nl) Wij vroegen onze experts naar een reactie op dit artikel. Is er werkelijk sprake van een valutaoorlog?

 

 

 

Erna ErkensErna Erkens
Wat is een valutaoorlog? Het belang van Centrale banken is duidelijk. Maar is dit belang groter dan het belang van de financiële markt? Een valutamarkt die USD 1900 miljard per dag groot is? Wie is dan de winnaar en wie is de verliezer? Een Centrale bank is niet altijd hetzelfde als de overheid of de bedrijven/belangen van het land zelf. Het Verenigd Koninkrijk heeft een tekort en is voor dat tekort gebaat bij een hoog GBP om hun importen goedkoper te maken terwijl een laag GBP de tekorten van het land lager maken. Zo is het Verenigd Koninkrijk ook voor een groot gedeelte van hun grote tekorten af gekomen 30 jaar geleden. Japan heeft een enorm overschot en ontvangen dus heel veel JPY uit hun exporten. Die worden de laatste tijd steeds meer waard terwijl zij toch niet tevreden zijn en dat het land in economische problemen brengt. Dus valutaoorlog, wie tegen wie is dat dan? En wanneer win je en wanneer verlies je? Het echte belang zou moeten zijn: de mensen die in het land wonen en hoe kun je het leven voorhen zo goed mogelijk maken of houden of verbeteren.

 

René Schilder
Ik betwijfereneschilder1l of we voor het Britse pond en de Amerikaanse dollar over een valutaoorlog kunnen spreken. De EUR/USD koers zit al sinds december vorig jaar in een trading range van 1.08/1.1400. Weinig beweging voor dit valutapaar en de algemene verwachting is dat het rentebeleid van de FED (een hogere USD rente later dit jaar) voor meer vraag naar dollars zou kunnen leiden en we eindelijk buiten deze bandbreedte treden. De daling van het pond wordt gedreven door de onzekerheid na het Brexit referendum, dit zal op korte termijn niet veranderen. Renteverwachtingen spelen een grote rol, het Noorse Kroon (NOK) was daar een goed voorbeeld van vorige week toen deze munt flink in waarde steeg na een hoger inflatie cijfer voor de maand juli. De verwachting dat de Noorse centrale bank de rente in september opnieuw zou verlagen werd door dit cijfer teniet gedaan en zorgde voor meer vraag naar NOK.

USD/TRY, where to after the failed coup?

02-08-2016 | Simon Knappstein |

TRY

 

In my July consensus FX forecasts report USD/TRY was expected to rise to 3.11 in 12 months’ time. These forecasts were given prior to the attempted coup. 

 

 

USD TRY

Now, two weeks further, the domestic situation in Turkey is clearly stabilising and it is a fine moment to take a look at the opinions of ING and Rabo on the outlook for USD/TRY. Rabo is currently expecting that USD/TRY will move to 2.90 in 1 year and ING is looking for USD/TRY to rise to 3.35 in 1 year’s time.

Rabo holds a relatively constructive view on the Lira based on a fairly strong economic growth and a high carry that tempts investors looking for yield. At the same time it sees the fact that Moody’s may downgrade Turkey’s credit rating to below investment grade as a clear risk. Such a downgrade, based on the post-coup political situation of increased concentrated political powers in the hands of President Erdogan that might lack the necessary rule of law and checks and balances, might trigger another wave of capital outflows from Turkish bonds and weaken the TRY significantly.
ING focuses on the easing cycle and also on the risk of a downgrade, both factors that would clearly keep the TRY under pressure. Furthermore it still sees idiosyncratic risks like the current account deficit, the large currency risk carried by the corporate sector and geopolitical risks all pointing to a weaker TRY.

My take away from this for the near term is that in the current benign market conditions the high carry may be the most important factor supporting the TRY and drive USD/TRY lower. A major risk is that Turkey’s credit rating may be downgraded to junk, maybe already within the next couple of days, which would seriously weaken the TYR.

Simon Knappstein - editor treasuryXL

Simon Knappstein

Owner of FX Prospect

 

FX Swaps vs Libor and EURIBOR: Arbitrage opportunities?

| 05-07-2016 | Rob Söentken |

fxswaps

 

As we are getting closer to the end of the month, end of Q2 and end of H1 of 2016, it is interesting to see financial markets are maneuvering to get the right liquidity on board for the balance sheet. Or get rid of the unwanted liquidity. For firms with liquidity in various currencies the best means for liquidity management is FX swaps.

 

What is an FX swap?

In a very simple definition the FX swap is like an exchange of deposits. The big advantage is that the counterparty risk is reduced due to the exchange of notional. Operationally an FX swap is booked as two FX transactions: one to convert and another to revert. The conversion rate is against the prevailing exchange rate. The reversion rate is against the conversion rate plus or minus some ‘swap points’, which reflect the interest rate differential between the respective currencies. During the tenor the exchange rate could change, which creates counterparty risk on the mark-to-market value of the reversion. Mark-to-market risk for tenors up to 1 year is still a small when compared to full notional risk.

How would an FX swap work in theory?

In diagram 1 the Libor and Euribor fixings for USD and EUR are listed for the respective tenors. Now if we would consider exchanging a USD deposit versus a EUR deposit for 1 year the cash flows would be as follows:
For the conversion date we take value spot (ie 2 days, in this case that is per June 30th) and we agree to exchange EUR 1 Mio vs USD 1.1048 Mio (because EUR 1 Mio at current spot of 1.1048 is USD 1.1048 Mio)

For the reversion date we take the value date for 1 year from today’s spot date. We calculate the following amounts including interest:

EUR 1 Mio x (1 + -0.05% x 365 / 360) =                     EUR 999,493.06

USD 1.1048 Mio x (1 + 1.20% x 365 / 360) =         USD 1,118,241.73

Dividing the USD amount by the EUR amount gives the exchange rate for the reversion on the forward date, in this case that is 1.1188089. This is called the ‘forward rate’ The difference to the spot exchange rate is 0.0140089. For simplicity reasons this is multiplied by 10,000 to 140.089. This reflects the interest differential.

When executing an FX swap the EUR amounts are kept constant for both the spot and forward dates. But the USD amounts are calculated using the spot and forward exchange rates as calculated above. Therefor the interest differential is reflected in the USD amount being different between spot and forward date.

How does it work in reality?

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, the current situation is special because we are getting close to a date special and important for balance sheet reporting. Supply and demand may push the market in a direction.

When looking at the actual FX swap rates and taking the EUR Euribor fixings as given, we can deduce the implied USD funding rates (see diagram 2). First observation is that the FX swaps appear to reflect either a substantial demand for USD from June 30th to July 1st, or a EUR supply. It is interesting to see that the 1 week fixing for EUR was not affected, while the 1 week FX swap was affected maybe 20 bppa. One reason could be the timing of the rates. Euribor is taken at one moment during the day, while FX swaps are affected by events during the day. Because wdiagram2e are looking at a single day FX swap, the annualized rate could swing a lot.

Another observation is that the interest rate differential between EUR and USD is actually bigger than implied by the fixings. For one month tenor the difference is 0.59% p.a.. It would seem possible that supply – demand forces can push FX swaps away from the deposit markets. Likely the counterparty limit constraints on pure deposits keep them from being arbitrages vs FX swaps, like they used to be many years ago.

How can a treasurer benefit from FX swaps?

Each individual and organization should determine for itself what he/she or it needs. And I do not want abstract from discussions around documentation requirements, collateral financing and administration, and the operational extra work. It seems obvious that there are opportunities to investigate.

One key area would be to look at the bid-offer spreads on cash liquidity in various currencies as provided by house-banks and compare those rates with and without using FX swaps. Also I could imagine non-house banks could be more competitive in providing FX swaps, while the counterparty risk is substantially smaller than when pure lending is concerned.

Rob Soentken

 

Rob Söentken

Ex-derivatives trader

Option Tales: Cheap Options Part II

| 24-05-2016 | Rob Söentken |

bankingToday in Rob Söentken’s Option Tales: When buying options it is tempting to see if the premium expenses can be minimized. A number of solutions are possible, which will be discussed in four articles. In the previous article I talked about the first two solutions: Choose the strike further OTM and Choose shorter tenor. Today I will be discussing the next two solutions: Choose the longer tenor and the Compound option.

 

3- Choose longer tenor

Following the comparison between a 3-month and a 12-month option, it should be remembered that a 12-month option will have some remaining value after 3 months have passed, at least theoretically. If we assume ‘ceteris paribus’ (everything remained unchanged) the remaining option value of a 12-month option would be 1.1%. If we diagram1pt2bought the option for 1.5%, we could sell it after 3 months at 1.1% and buy the USD through an outright forward transaction. This approach shows that the net cost of option protection would be only 0.4% (1.5% – 1.1%). Which would be cheaper than the premium of a 3-month option with the same Delta. Also, because the option has a higher Delta than a 3-month option with the same strike (25% vs 10%, see diagram 2), it will follow the spot market much better. The bottom line of paragraph 3 is that a longer dated option can be bought with the intention to sell it again at some point, the net cost being less than buying a shorter dated option. While it serves as a hedge against price changes.

4- Compound option

A compound option is the right to buy an option against a certain premium. For example we could be considering todiagrampt2 buy the 1-year option in diagram 2 for 1.5%. Alternatively we could consider buying a right to buy this option for 0.4% in 3 months time. At that time the 1-year option will only have 9 months remaining, but the strike and 1.5% premium are fixed in the contract. On the expiry date of the compound option we can decide if we want to pay 1.5% for the underlying option. Alternatively, assuming nothing has changed, we could buy a 9 month option in the market for 1.1% (see diagram 2). In such a case we wouldn’t exercise the compound option.

An alternative to the compound option would be to buy the 3-month option for 0.2%. On expiry, assuming nothing has changed again, we could buy a 9 month option in the market for 1.1% (see diagram 2).

In my next two articles I will discuss the last two solutions for minimizing premium expenses when buying options:

  • Conditional Premium option
  • Reverse Knock Out

Would you like to read more in Rob Söentken’s Option Tales?
1. Options are for wimps
2. ATM or OTM
3. Cheap options part 1

 

Rob Soentken

 

 

Rob Söentken

Ex-derivatives trader

 

Option Tales: ATM or OTM?

banking10-05-2016 | By Rob Soentken |

 

When uncertainty is substantial and the decision was made to hedge with options, should the strike be put ‘At The Money’ (ATM) or ‘Out of The Money’ (OTM)? Diagram 1 shows the dilemma.

 

 

An ATM call option on USD with strike at 1.1400 costs about 2% while a 4% OTM option with the strike at 1.0944 costs only about 0.6%. The latter is substantially cheaper but the protection only kicks in once the USD has appreciated 4%.

option tales - 1

We know the premiums and the strikes, but each strike / premium combination has its merits. It would help if we would know the amount of Risk we are running. To speak in terms of insurance: We know the premium, but we do not know the potential loss. One thing we do know is the chance on that loss. This chance factor is called Delta. It is the chance of the USD appreciating below the strike of the option. The premium divided by the chance on the loss is the potential loss. It could be more, it could be less, but it is the estimated average loss. For example: The 1.14 strike costs 2% premium and has a 50% chance of being worth anything. Therefore the 2% is the premium on an insurance contract potentially worth 2% : 50% = 4%. Lets call this Risk.

Diagram 2 shows Premiums, Delta and Risk for various OTM strikes.option tales - 2 Risk appears fairly stabile across strikes, which makes sense because the premiums are calculated with one volatility on one underlying. The Risk on OTM is lower than that for ATM options. It appears that OTM premiums are relatively more expensive, they give protection against less potential loss.

Knowing the Risk to be around 3.5-4% on the USD to be purchased, it does not come as a surprise that in real life many option strikes are bought to protect for losses beyond this percentage amount. Hedgers are looking for protection beyond the expected potential loss on the underlying. These are OTM strikes in this case 3-4% OTM, with a Delta (chance of exercise) between 20-25%.

option tales - 3Diagram 3 shows Premiums, Delta and Risk for different tenors. ‘Time’ is the time to expiry of the options in fractions of years. Its shows that for longer tenors, the Risk is higher. But disproportionally. For the same chance on exercise a hedger could double the premium to buy a hedge for a 4x longer tenor.

Rob Soentken

 

 

Rob Soentken

Ex-derivatives trader

 

Options are for wimps

26-04-2016 | by Rob Soentken |

bankingDoes it make sense to use options for hedging? The following little story is about a senior person who I respect a lot, and who didn’t like using options.

One day he asked me to execute some call options for his investment book. He never used options, so I asked him if he had changed his mind about the product. He just laughed and said he hadn’t.

“Why would I buy an option if I know the prices are going up? Any option premium I pay is lost money.” 

Somehow I’m convinced he held the same opinion about selling options.

Value of a USD and Call option on a USD

Options are for wimps - diagram 1Diagram 1 explains his feelings. I assume he was considering only the left half of the payoff diagram. After an appreciation of the USD, a USD is always worth more than a call option on a USD, the difference being the option premium.

There is no downside if you ‘know’ where the market is going, if there is no uncertainty. Using options implies you are not sure about the direction. In a way he was saying ‘options are for wimps’.

The future of the USD is leading

For a company importing goods from outside the EUR zone the choice could be very similar: to buy the foreign currency outright or buy a call option on that currency. Possible actions are driven by the views on 2 dimensions of the USD future:

  1. Where will USD go? Down or Up?Where will USD go?
  2. How will USD go there? Steadily or Uncertainly?

These 2 dimensions lead to 4 possible actions for hedging currency risk, as depicted in Diagram 2.

If the view on USD is Up, in a Steadily way the choice to ‘buy USD or buy an option’ is straightforward: Buy 100% of the required USD, because any option premium would be wasted money.

If the view on USD is Up but in an Uncertain manner, it could be recommendable to buy 100% At-The-Money options. Obviously the premium is an expense, but considering the expected Uncertain price action the price of USD could also be going down, meaning the USD can be purchased against cheaper than expected prices. This would represent a gain possibly offsetting and exceeding the loss of the premium.

If the view on USD is Down and in an Uncertain manner, it could be recommendable to buy 100% Out-Of-The-Money options. Like my manager in the beginning of this article, this call would be a back-stop against unexpected outcomes. Obviously the premium is an expense, but considering the strike being Out-Of-The-Money, it’s a relatively small one.

Finally, if the view on the USD is Down, and in a Steadily way it could be an interesting approach to hedge a certain percentage and to add to that position in a dynamic way, until the full 100% of the required USD amount has been purchased. In a way this position is a replication of buying a Call option, without incurring the expense of the premium. Obviously there could and would be cost involved if additional USD purchases would be above the initial purchase. But if the Down view materialises, there would be gains in the form of cheaper USD purchases.

Above article reflects the personal views of the writer. It should not be used as a guidance to the use of derivatives in the context of investments or risk management. Any investor or risk manager should develop and determine their own independent views and actions.

Rob Soentken

 

Rob Söentken

Ex-derivatives trader