Tag Archive for: treasury

Building a cash flow forecast model

| 5-9-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

 

No company can sort out its funding and investment requirements without having a cash flow forecast. This gives valuable insight into potential bottlenecks where there is a shortage of liquidity that needs to be addressed in order that the company can continue its day-to-day operations whilst optimizing its cash position.

2 methods

There are 2 methods to be a model – indirect and direct.

Indirect uses the balance sheet and, as such, will contain non-cash items like depreciation and bad debts. Direct uses the projected receipts and payments shown at specific moments in time.The indirect method is handy for long term forecasting beyond 1 year as it shows the money required to finance capital intensive investments and projects.

The direct method is essential for short term analysis up to 1 year as it shows the money for operational activities and working capital. As a cash flow forecast is mainly used for the direct needs of a company, it is prudent to use the direct method.

What steps need to be taken to transform a budget into a cash flow forecast via direct method?

  1. Adjust the budget to remove all non-cash items
  2. Analyse historical data to obtain seasonally adjusted cash flows for operational activities
  3. Integrate the standard payment terms for creditors and debtors and adjust the cash date
  4. If there are no clear trends within the month, spread the amount evenly over the month
  5. Where pay dates are hard – wages, taxes etc. input these into those dates
  6. Calculate the operational cash flow
  7. Incorporate expected investments
  8. Incorporate existing financing obligations (principal and interest)
  9. Never forget the BTW (VAT)!
  10. Analyse the forecast for shortfalls or periods of excess liquidity

As this is an exercise that incorporates all departments within a company, it is essential that full support is given by management to the design and implementation of the process. No one person can collect and collate all the data – this requires continuous input by controllers and treasury staff.

How to design the forecast?

  1. Establish clearly defined criteria and processes
  2. Define the role and cooperation required by all parties, whilst highlighting the benefits
  3. Ensure commitment from all parties
  4. 1 data source only – data must be presented in 1 format on agreed dates
  5. Structure – all data is delivered on time to a central point, normally the treasury
  6. Keep it simple – do not over design the model
  7. Give constant feedback to all stakeholders so that they can see how their contributions matter
  8. Question the validity of the data – is it created by a bottom-up approach or has a simple top-down approach been taken without looking at the individual components that make up the forecast
  9. Stress test the data – build simple scenarios (best and worse) whilst making simple assumptions such as debtors extending payment times, fall in sales, increase in demand etc.
  10. Never sit back and think that your task is done. This is a living model that needs to be constantly monitored and adjusted where necessary
  11. Do not punish – many people are reluctant to provide forecasts out of fear that they will be wrong. Use the model to educate and focus stakeholders onto the reality of their cash positions as opposed to their bookkeeping positions. It is all about timing
  12. Remember – if you do not have it, you can not use it. There is nothing more harmful for a company than running out of cash, regardless of what the company accounts are telling you!

If you want to know more about this topic you are welcome to contact me.

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

 

 

Introduction of a new initiative: Treasurer Development

| 1-9-2017 | treasuryXL |

Already over a year treasuryXL facilitates information exchange about corporate treasury. Contributions are, amongst others, about the development of the treasurer as a person. Due to the improved economy we notice a rising interest in this topic. Education, competence development and labour market are the most obvious examples. This is why we start the Treasurer Development  initiative.

Treasury education

In treasury education we see a rising interest from universities (also of applied science) which results in young graduates with treasury expertise. Both courses with certifications, like RT, ACT or CTP, are discussed as well as compact, result oriented trainings. Especially quick knowledge about FX and risk is in demand. The number of on-line trainings is quickly rising.

The ambition of many treasurers to have a bigger business impact results in a higher demand for training and coaching. Skills you do not learn in class. Questions like “what communication style works with an average and my CFO” or “how do I convince colleagues in an operating company to change their working methods” deserve a tailor made approach.

The labour market is tilting, the number of vacancies is rising. The way employers and employees find each other has changed over the last decade. Social media have a huge impact. Candidates do not only think about the next step but also about their career as a whole and the place their job has in life.

Treasurer Development Initiative

From this perspective a small group of professionals with relevant expertise came together to start the Treasurer Development Initiative. Questions like “how can we raise the professional level of corporate treasury and increase its impact” and “how can we introduce treasury in places where it has an added value”  will be considered from the perspective of the professional.

In our next blog we will introduce the group and inform you about first plans. If you want to contribute, please let us know.

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What are hot topics in corporate treasury? Let us know!

 | 28-8-2017 | TreasuryXL |
 The treasury community knows us from ‘fresh’ content on a daily basis. A growing number of treasury professionals, our experts, send in articles and blogs and it is our goal to present  interesting content that matters to our readers.
In order to be able to do so, it is important to stay on top of developments and trends and know what keeps you busy. At the moment we are exploring what the hottest topics in corporate treasury are and we would like to ask your help with this!

In cooperation with Treasurer Search we are making a list of the hottest topics. We are curious what subjects you, as a treasury professional, are dealing with on a daily basis.

Please answer the one-question survey (It only takes 1 minute of your time)

Based upon your input we will know what is relevant for you and we will be able to manage our content better.

Thank you for completing the survey.

Annette Gillhart – Community Manager treasuryXL

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Startup FinTech company Facturis and the traditional bank: How do they do it?

| 23-8-2017 | PowertoPay – Unified Post | Sponsored content |

Facturis, a partner of UnifiedPost, is an online platform that helps to optimize the financial situation of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Netherlands. The platform facilitates a more efficient flow of incoming and outgoing invoices, debtor management, retrieval of digital debit authorizations, dynamic discounting and dynamic working capital credit. In this interview, Nico Ten Wolde, CEO of Facturis, is telling more about developments in the financial technical (FinTech) world.

 

How did Facturis originate from the Rabobank?

Nico: “Rabobank started a strategic orientation in 2010 to increase its added value and uniqueness for its business customers. Rabobank wants to provide services within the customers’ business processes whenever and wherever they are needed. Where Rabobank has traditionally focused on offering products such as transactions, finance and insurance, she wanted to offer services to support the full order-to-cash flow process of her customers. This goes further than the execution of transactions and the provision of funding. By offering different services that work in synergy on one platform, the customer has lower operating costs and a lower need for external financing. In order to achieve this, Rabobank has established a partnership with UnifiedPost in the form of Facturis. UnifiedPost delivers the invoicing platform technology.”

What is the target group of Facturis? What do you do to connect the product to this target group?

Nico: “Facturis focuses on the business market, with the primary focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These types of organizations need to obtain services from many different parties in order to optimize the financial and administrative processes. Because they buy services from different parties, there is insufficient insight into and grip on the overall financial process. By integrally providing services from various partners on one platform, we give entrepreneurs more insight into their financial situation. That goes further than sending invoices – it’s about getting bills paid as quickly as possible.”

Fin Tech initiatives – what changes?

Everyone talks about the changing role of the banks, partly through the FinTech initiatives. What do you think are the things we already notice?

Nico: “What I see is that 10 years ago a bank was the only place you would consider for financial services, this is no longer always the case. Think of FinTech parties like Adyen, which offer a wide range of financial products from banks and other financial institutions on a platform. The customer no longer deals directly with a traditional bank. In addition, we see a strong growth of (crowd) funding platforms. The financing is no longer obtained through a bank. More recently, several blockchain initiatives and the oncoming implementation of PSD2 will create new opportunities for players outside the traditional banking world.”

Why do you think banks will increasingly work with FinTech companies? What is the benefit for the banks?

Nico: “On the one hand, banks often have to deal with complex legacy systems which limit the possibilities to quickly implement new solutions. On the other hand, banks have to deal with implementing and maintaining new rules and regulations with the current processes. This makes it almost impossible to quickly implement innovations. FinTech companies can quickly launch new concepts for specific target groups. Through cooperation with banks, the power of the existing brand and distribution channel is optimally utilized. A win-win situation for the customer, the FinTech company and a bank.”

What was the biggest success in Facturis?

Nico: “The launch of the pilot Invoice Credit. The Invoice Credit is a dynamic working capital credit that moves along in real-time with the (outgoing) invoice flow of a company. As a result, the entrepreneur does not always have to return to his bank to make an adjustment on his credit line. Due to the flexibility of InvoiceCredit, companies can streamline the flow of money, thus optimizing their working capital. InvoiceCredit fulfils the companies need for a credit that reflects fluctuations in the invoice flow and that grows along with the company.”

What is your biggest challenge within Facturis?

Nico: “Our biggest challenge is to maintain the speed you need as a FinTech to be successful and to be able to continue to innovate. Laws, regulations and legacy systems sometimes limit the speed to launch new services quickly within large corporate organizations. In cooperation with large organizations, such as banks, we face the challenge of balancing speed and adopting new banking services.”

How has such a creative thinking startup within the (traditional) bank been adopted so well?

Nico: “On the one hand, with a lot of missionary work within Rabobank in the form of presentations and writing many memo’s to convince the right stakeholders inside and outside the Rabobank. On the other hand, the arrival of Wiebe Draijer (Chairman of the Board of Rabobank) helped us greatly with the adoption of Facturis within the Rabobank. With the establishment of a FinTech & Innovation department, Rabobank made a clear choice for the adoption of FinTech companies in the future.”

What do you think is the most successful FinTech initiative in the market?

Name 1 launched and 1 that has not yet been launched.

Nico: “Launched: Kabbage: Kabbage is an American FinTech that can assess a consumer’s or SME’s financing request within a few minutes.

Not launched: Easytrade, an innovative currency hedging solution for hedging currency risks of (international) companies. Easytrade is a new FinTech initiative created by Rabobank Moonshot Program, an internal acceleration program aimed at realizing the advancing ideas of employees.”

What do you think are the most important FinTech developments in the near future?

Nico: “In the coming years, I see major changes in risk management. Through the application of AI and machine learning, we are able to better estimate risks and utilize opportunities with a much larger predictive ability. This has a positive impact on customers, we can deliver services exactly when the customer needs them. In addition, integrating blockchain initiatives and virtual currencies within the financial sector will take a huge run. With the implementation of PSD2, it is possible for FinTech companies to combine the old world and the new world. This allows for gradual adoption
of these new developments for customers.”

PowertoPay – Unified Post

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Saving on FX deals? Often neglected but potentially a “pot of gold”

| 21-8-2017 | Patrick Kunz |

 

Doing business internationally often means dealing with foreign currency (FX). This poses a risk as the exchange rate changes daily, basically every second. To mitigate this risk a company can hedge the position via FX deals (discussed in a previous article). But what are the costs of those deals to companies?

 

FX deals

FX is traded on exchanges where only authorized parties have access to. This can be brokers or banks, the so called market makers. They can take your fx position for a give rate and they try to find a counterparty for the deal who is willing to take the opposite trade. For this effort (and risk as they might not be able to directly match the position) they ask a provision. This is the bid-ask spread; the spread between rate for buying and rate for selling the currency. The fx (mid) rate is determined by supply and demand.

The spread depends on several things:

  • Market liquidity; how many people are buying and selling and with what volume
  • Market timing; is the market open for that currency
  • Restrictions: some currencies have restrictions

For a company to trade FX they need an account with a party that has access to fx market makers. This is often a bank. This bank will take another bite out of the spread for their profit (and maybe risk as they might take the position on their books). The spread the bank will charge depends on how many deals and how much volume you will be doing. Sometimes it is an obligation to trade with the bank from a financing arrangement. For the big currencies for big clients the spread can be as low as 2-3 pips (0,0002/0,0003).

Trading FX seems to be without costs as the bank charges no fees. However, those fees are put into the fx rate. When doing spot deals it is easy to calculate them, it’s the difference between the traded rate and the then actual market spot mid rate. When doing forward deals or trading illiquid currencies it is harder to determine the spread. Always try to get to know the spread you are paying. The spread is basically the costs of the fx deal (for forward deals there is an interest component).

It therefore makes sense to always compare your FX rates and get quotes from several banks. Trading with a broker sometimes can be cheaper as one party in the process is eliminated. Savings can be up to 5% per deal (for exotic currencies), for the bigger currencies an average saving of 1% is possible. If you do several million worth on FX deals a year this is a big money saver.

Pecunia Treasury & Finance b.v. has an online fx trading platform backed by one of the biggest worldwide fx broker.

Patrick Kunz

Treasury, Finance & Risk Consultant/ Owner Pecunia Treasury & Finance BV

 

 

Minor Treasury Management at Hogeschool Utrecht increasingly successful

| 15-8-2017 | Pieter de Kiewit | treasuryXL |

In July 2017 our expert Pieter de Kiewit wrote an interesting article about the minor treasury managment of Hogeschool Utrecht (University of Applied Sciences).
Hogeschool Utrecht started with this program three years ago and Pieter had been asked by Frans Boumans, lecturer and researcher at Hogeschool Utrecht,  to contribute to create the curriculum. Pieter also assisted in finding both guest lecturers and companies providing internships. He will give a presentation to students about labour market opportunities for treasury experts on September 20th, 2017. In his article Pieter continues:

Programs like these do exist at universities in Europe and other countries. The university of Chicago has a strong reputation and we recruited two candidates from France with an extensive academic treasury curriculum. In the Netherlands the Register Treasurers post graduate program is the obvious academic way to go for a treasurer. You can only enter with experience and a degree. Graduating at master level in treasury in the Netherlands is not (yet?) organised.

By now, the Hogeschool Utrecht program has more applicants than seats. Students, not only from Utrecht, but also from other cities enroll. Their backgrounds vary from accounting, audit to business control. They find positions in SMEs, bigger corporates and the financial services industry. Recently Treasurer Search found a permanent position for a graduate with a treasury minor (again). Before we did not recruit graduates as our focus did not match the Dutch educational system. Graduates with treasury expertise were hardly available.

As from September we will continue our cooperation. Together with the people of treasuryXL we will create a brief survey in order to find out what is “hot in corporate treasury”. The results of this survey will be used to have student write papers. Interesting stuff! If you want to contribute or know more about this program you can contact Frans directly ([email protected]) or through Treasurer Search. The structure is set but for good input there is always room.

I hope all this is the preparation for an academic treasury track in The Netherlands. Time will tell.

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

 

More articles of this author:

Fintech recruitment considerations

Consider a treasury intern

If you are not a treasurer with the ambition of a dentist

Banker to corporate treasury transfer – A topic as relevant as ever

 

SWIFT Blockchain POC: Enhanced cross-border payments

| 8-8-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

Early July SWIFT announced that 22 global banks recently joined its Blockchain proof of concept (PoC) initiative introduced in January this year in collaboration with six leading correspondent banks (ANZ, BNP Paribas, BNY Mellon, RBC Royal Bank and Wells Fargo). The PoC is part of SWIFT’s ‘gpi’ (global payments innovation) service, the new standard for cross-border payments, aimed to “re-arm the correspondent banking system for a new age of technological disruption”. 

This Blockchain PoC initiative is designed to explore whether blockchain technology can help banks to improve the reconciliation of their international nostro accounts in real-time, optimising their global liquidity. If so, that would be a break through event for both SWIFT and blockchain.

Present state

Currently, banks cannot monitor their account positions in real-time due to lack of intraday reporting coverage. The present pain points banks currently experience when making cross-border payments center around a lack of visibility into the end-to-end transactions lifecycle. Under the current correspondent banking model, banks need to monitor the funds in their overseas accounts via debit and credit updates and end-of-day statements. The maintenance and operational work involved represents a significant portion of the cost of making cross-border payments.

“Cross border payments are like a black box for us. We don’t know when the funds will be credited, we don’t know what fees will be charged and we also have problems with reconciliation”. states Martin Schlageter, head of Treasury Operations at Swiss healthcare conglomerate Roche.

As such, the POC recognises the need for banks to receive real-time liquidity data in order to manage funds throughout the business day.

SWIFT GPI service

The PoC is being undertaken as part of SWIFT gpi, a new service that “may revolutionise the cross-border payments industry by combining real-time payments tracking with the speed and certainty of same-day settlement for international payments”.

The SWIFT gpi should be seen as SWIFT’s response to the problems they faced after a series of attacks events that showed that “all was not as secure as everyone believed”. SWIFT gpi initiative was first announced at the annual Sibos conference in 2015. The project went into live production in January this year to address core problems related to speed, transparency and traceability of cross border payments.

SWIFT gpi not only delivers a much-needed improvement in the speed of transaction, but also improves overall customer experience by creating predictable settlement times and clear statuses, through additional (unaltered transfer of) information on remittances and transparency around the FX rates and fees applied throughout the payment cycle.

“The ability to deliver enhanced remittance information alongside the payment will help customers make better decisions along the payment chain, while also creating better efficiency opportunities. The decision to make gpi available in the “cloud” is also exciting, and we anticipate this will lead to the development of entirely new services, that combine SWIFT gpi with capabilities provided by banks, clients and vendors.“ says Tom Halpin, Global Head of Payments Product Management, HSBC Global Liquidity and Cash Management

Key features

Key features of the SWIFT gpi service include a secure tracking database in the cloud accessible via APIs, and enhanced business rules.

Cornerstone of SWIFT gpi is the highly innovative new cross-border TRACKER, a special tracking feature that enables international payments to be traced real-time. It allows banks to provide corporate treasurers with a real-time, end-to-end view (visibility) on the status of their payments, including confirmations of the amount credited to the beneficiaries’ account. The Tracker is available via an open API, making it compatible with proprietary banking systems worldwide – helping to ensure maximum impact of gpi benefits at a greater adoption speed.

A second key feature is the OBSERVER, a quality assurance tool that monitors participants’ adherence to the gpi business rules. Gpi’s transparency ensures that remittance information such as invoice references, is transferred unaltered to recipients.

Gpi uptake

Membership is open to any supervised financial institution that agrees to comply with SWIFT’s business rules. But also non-bank organisations can join SWIFT gpi initiative. The SWIFT gpi service has received considerable bank support across the globe. And the number of global transaction banks that are actively using SWIFT’s gpi service is continuously growing. Since its launch the number of banks that are live with SWIFT gpi has risen beyond 100, and hundreds of thousands GPI payments have already been sent across 85 country corridors. This represents more than 75% of all SWIFT cross border payments.

“The increasing number of banks going live on this service addresses the demands of corporate treasurers. Hence, banks cannot afford to not join the initiative and go live as soon as possible. Our expectation is that all of our cross-border payments will be end-to-end Swift gpi payments in the future.” Group of Swiss corporates

SWIFT expects that numerous additional banks will join the gpi initiative in the coming months. The ambition is for all countries to be live by the end of 2017.

Phased approach

Next to the design of the second phase of SWIFT gpi, that is already underway focusing on additional digital capabilities and further enhancements such as ‘a rich payment data service’, for its third gpi phase SWIFT started exploring the potential of new technologies such as Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), including blockchain, through a Proof of Concept (PoC).

SWIFT Blockchain PoC

Launched in January 2017 with six founding banks the SWIFT Blockchain PoC initiative, designed to validate/explore whether blockchain can be used by banks to improve the reconciliation of their international nostro accounts (these are accounts that a bank holds in a foreign currency in another bank to handle international financial transactions for their customers) (these are accounts that a bank holds in a foreign currency in another bank to handle international financial transactions for their customers) in real –time, optimising their global liquidity. At its core, the PoC builds on SWIFT’s rulebook as part of the intraday liquidity standard gpi.

This SWIFT Blockchain PoC initiative aims to help banks overcome significant challenges in monitoring and managing their international nostro accounts, which are crucial to the facilitation of cross border payments.

“Whilst existing DLTs are not currently mature enough for cross-border payments, this technology, bolstered by some additional features from SWIFT, may be interesting for the associated account reconciliation,” “This PoC gives us the opportunity to test DLT and determine if it can be applied to this particular use case.” Wim Raymaekers, Head of Banking Market and SWIFT gpi at SWIFT

Characteristics

In developing the POC, SWIFT is leveraging the Hyperledger Fabric v1.0 technology, and combining it with key SWIFT assets, to bring it in line with the financial industry’s requirements.

“SWIFT will leverage its strong governance, PKI security scheme, BIC legal identifier framework and liquidity standards expertise to deliver a distinctive DLT PoC platform for the benefit of its community.” Damien Vanderveken, Head of R&D, SWIFTLabs and User Experience at SWIFT 

The PoC application will use a private permissioned blockchain in a closed user group environment, with specific user profiles and strong data controls. User privileges and data access will be strictly governed. This to ensure that all the information related to nostro/vostro accounts is kept private. Only account owners and its correspondent banking partners will see the details.

Collaboration

SWIFT gpi member banks can apply to participate in this Blockchain PoC. Next to the 6 founding banks, another 22 banks have recently joined the SWIFT blockchain PoC. They include include:

ABN AMRO Bank; ABSA Bank; BBVA; Banco Santander; China Construction Bank; China Minsheng Banking; Commerzbank; Deutsche Bank; Erste Group Bank; FirstRand Bank; Intesa Sanpaolo; JPMorgan Chase; Lloyds Bank; Mashreq Bank; Nedbank; Rabobank; Société Générale; Standard Bank of South Africa; Standard Chartered Bank; Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation; UniCredit; Westpac Banking Corporation.

“Collaboration is the cornerstone of innovation,” “This new group of banks allows us to greatly extend the scope of multi-lateral testing of the blockchain application and thus adds considerable weight to the findings. We warmly welcome the new banks and look forward to their insights”  says Wim Raymaekers, head of banking markets and SWIFT gpi at SWIFT.

Process

Moving forward, the SWIFT PoC Blockchain application will undergo testing, with the results scheduled to be published in September and presented at Sibos in Toronto in October. Working independently of the founding banks, the 22 institutions will act as a validation group to test in a deeper way the PoC’s Blockchain application, that is currently under development by SWIFT and the group of six founding banks. They will evaluate how the technology scales and performs.

Benefits

For banks

The potential business benefits ensuing from a successful SWIFT blockchain POC may be significant. If it proves to enable banks reconcile those nostro accounts more efficiently and in real time, that may lower costs and operational risk.

“The potential business benefits ensuing from the PoC are clear,” “If banks could manage their nostro account liquidity in real-time, it would allow them to accurately gauge how much money is required in each account at any given point, ultimately enabling them to free up significant funds for other investments.” Damien Vanderveken, head of R&D, SWIFTLab and UX at SWIFT.

It brings together banks worldwide who want to offer an enhanced cross-border payments experience to their corporate clients. By being part of SWIFT gpi, banks may improve the quality of their correspondent relationships and networks, helping to reduce risks and management costs and improve compliance.

“Transparency is key to a good end-to-end client experience. SWIFT gpi is a significant step in the evolution of correspondent banking, which remains the primary means through which cross-border payments are delivered worldwide. Bank of America Merrill Lynch is pleased to be working with like-minded institutions around the world to better serve each other and our respective customers.” states Greg Murray, head of Global Product Management for High Value Payments and FI/NBFI Products in Global Transaction Services at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

For corporate treasurers

SWIFT gpi may enable corporates engaged in international trade to get paid for services, or delivery of goods, in a more timely fashion, enabling a faster supply chain process. It also enables a more accurate reconciliation of payments and invoices, optimizes liquidity with improved cash forecasts and reduces exposure to FX risks with same-day processing of funds in the beneficiary’s time zone.

“Being part of SWIFT gpi, and working with our industry counterparts, is giving correspondent banks a platform to examine and refine current processes, and to collaborate and explore different, more efficient ways of doing things. Ultimately, our clients will benefit most from this initiative,” Kent Marais, head of TPS product management at Standard Bank SA.

SWIFT and the banks have designed the gpi services so that banks have flexibility in how they offer the new services. They can deliver the gpi service in very different ways. Services could potentially include enhanced invoice presentment and reconciliation to facilitate financial supply chains, exchange of supply chain documentation to improve global trade, exchange and interactive enquiry of account and processing conditions to improve end-to-end straight through processing, and providing additional party and transaction information to support compliance and sanctions screening of cross-border payments.

Enhanced cross-border payment service

“SWIFT has addressed several of the pain points corporates have had with cross-border payments,” “Changes to existing corporate payments infrastructures should be very limited, if any. So hopefully, corporates won’t need to make any major investments to benefit from smoother cross-border payments.” says Magnus Carlsson, AFP’s manager of treasury and payments

Given the size of the number of banks and corporates participating in SWIFT gpi, the SWIFT Blockchain PoC may face the challenge of scalability. If that could be solved in a successful way it may be another prove of the viability of blockchain and DLT to enhance cross-border payments.

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

 

 

More on blockchain from this author:

Blockchain: accelerated activity in trade finance

Blockchain and derivatives: Re-imagining the industry

The digital trade chain: The blockchain train is rolling

Please feel free to visit the treasuryXL/articles page to see more articles.

 

Graphs with no time line – why and how

| 7-8-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

A key role within the Treasury function is providing forecasts to the directors and management. Graphs are a frequently used tool of course.
When constructing graphs it is normal to put time on the horizontal x axis and read the prices from left to right – from old to new. Visually, this appeals to us as we normally read from left to right. However, when the price does not change much for a long period of time the graph no longer looks fluid – there is a period of activity, followed by a long period of almost standing still, followed by another period of activity. To try and eliminate this period of inactivity whilst still presenting the data requires an approach where sequential time is removed from the equation. This brings us to the last article in this series.

The following two graphs ignore time and focus purely on changes in the price that have been filtered to meet specific criteria.

Renko Charts

 

Prices are represented by blocks – hollow for upward movements and solid for price falls.

Every block has a predefined value – if we were showing interest rates a block could represent 5 basis points. If we had an upward price movement this means that the following upward block can only been drawn once prices have risen more than 5 basis points from the last block. If the price moved up 4 basis points and then dropped by 3 basis points, no additional blocks would be added to the graph.

Blocks are plotted at a 45 degree angle showing upward and downward sloping price changes.
Price reversals are shown when prices have moved more than 2 blocks in the opposite direction. Yet again if we had an upward slope and the price was 1.25 (our blocks are set to 0.05 or 5 basis points) we would require a downward movement of more than 0.15 (15 basis points) to 1.10 to draw 2 solid blocks downwards.

What remains is a very smooth representation of price movements with a uniform value for every block, whilst filtering out smaller movements that have been filtered out by the conditions set on block size.

Point and Figure Charts

Price changes are represented by vertical columns – X’s for rising prices and O’s for falling prices.
As with Renko charts, the X’s and O’s have a predetermined size and a price reversal is shown when prices change by 3 boxes as opposed to 2 on a normal Renko chart. When direction changes a new column is drawn to the right of the present column. Otherwise, the same criteria is applied to both charts except point and figure show true vertical columns as opposed to 45 degree lines.

So why would someone look at prices in this particular way? Such a chart does not necessarily show the latest price – the predefined filters ensure that only price changes that meet the criteria are shown.

The main advantages include:

  • A constant filter that reduces the noise associated with normal time charts
  • Analysis is based only on movement – not on time
  • Perceived support and resistance levels are easier to see
  • The current trend is very clear to see

All the techniques shown in this series are applicable to everyday analysis and everyone has their favourite approach. Some like to see all data, whilst others prefer to see filtered, smoother data. The eternal question when looking at charts and seeing the current trend is to ask “where will the price go?” Initially, the immediate answer is that price will follow the current trend until such time as it does not anymore. This might seem a cheap flippant answer, but it is the truth. We have firmly established that we need to know the price in the past to determine if the present price movement is in a clearly established trend. If we knew nothing about the price in the past it would be pure guesswork to say which way the price would go?

We could still be wrong however, but at least we can establish why and how we made our opinion.

No chart or charting system can clearly determine what the future price will be with 100 per cent accuracy. By following the trend we can at least say what the current market direction is, without being able to clarify, purely on price, when the market will change direction.

Charts that eliminate time make it easier to see where the top and bottom of the market prices have been established. Therefore, if we are in an upward trend and approaching a market high that has been reached twice before, we can state with a reasonable amount of confidence that we are approaching a level that the market has tested twice before but not been able to break above. This would imply, on a technical analysis, that there is perceived resistance in the market to taking the price above the previous high.

However, a word of caution when using charts.
The best analogy I have ever heard for not relying 100 per cent on charts is as follows:

Would you sit behind the steering wheel of a vehicle and drive forward whilst the windscreen was blacked out and only have the rear view mirror to show you where you have been and only have that information to decide when you had to steer?

There is no system that can guarantee telling you what the future price will be. Analysis has to be taken with a pinch of salt but, any market professional should be able to perform analysis. If you can not analyse then you can not predict.

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist


You might have missed the first two articles of this series and can find them here:

Treasury for non-treasurers: Data analysis and forecasting – seeing the future by looking at the past (Part I)

Treasury for non-treasurers: Data analysis and forecasting – Seeing the future by looking at the past (Part II)

 

Mobile finally makes treasury easier

| 20-7-2017 | Udo Rademakers |

On the 12th of May 2017, in GTnews an article has been placed regarding “Mobile finally makes treasury easier”. The article describes how Citibank is working to replace tokens with mobile phones and testing a multitude of options for finding a more convenient solution.

I am used to work with multiple tokens with a variety of passwords and different kind of banking applications/websites. For some of the banking sites, authorisation of payments via a smart phone was quite difficult and working from the desktop was required. A way of solving the „multiple token issue”, is using a third party provider which (re)connects all payments via (cloud based) multi-bank platforms, however this is not needed for each and every Treasury department.

If banks are working on an easy authorisation method via modern, smart and above all secure technology (like digital fingerprint ), I am confident that the payment control and executions for most Treasurers (and CFO`s) will improve. Especially for the ones who are frequently travelling. If the improved –token free- payment authorisation process could be integrated with the process of obtaining information, input & approval of transactions, viewing of balances including „smart alerts“, corporate banking via mobile technology will reach the next stage in the area of cash management as well.

However, even with the greatest solutions in place, an outage of mobile network or running out of battery remains a risk – now the holiday season started perhaps anyway good to be offline for a while.

 

Udo Rademakers
Independent Treasury Consultant & Interim Manager