Brexit – the impact on your business

| 02-05-2018 | Lionel Pavey |

 

As the negotiations between the EU and the UK get ever more complicated, there is a strong possibility that rather than a hard or soft Brexit there will be no agreement whatsoever. For businesses that either export to the UK or import from, this could have a fundamental impact on their survival. The Netherlands exports goods and services to the UK with a value in excess of EUR 40 billion per year; more than 200,000 jobs are directly linked with trade to the UK; Dutch capital investment in the UK is more than EUR 180 billion. We take a look at some of the key areas where business could be affected from the viewpoint of cashflows.

Foreign Exchange

It is not known how many Dutch companies actively employ a hedging policy. If GBP was to significantly get weaker, demand in the UK might fall or lead to more contracts having to be settled in GBP. However, at the same time, Dutch companies relying on components from the UK could see their suppliers having their profit margins squeezed – potentially leading to problems in maintaining and fulfilling existing contractual obligations. The biggest concern would involve increased currency volatility. If EUR/GBP does become more volatile, this could lead to clients in the UK shopping further afield to obtain the goods and services they require – leading to a drop in exports for the Netherlands. What are the alternatives available – banking in the UK; offsetting existing supply chains by changing components with UK firms etc?

Funding

At present, the UK receives EU funding and this can be the basis for investment decisions regardless of the location of the business. As this will stop when they leave, there will be an impact on companies that have a multiple presence in both countries. Changes in regulations will bring extra complexity, restrictions and possibly affect the profitability of existing business arrangements. The immediate loss of passporting rights for financial services should not be underestimated.

Supply Chain

All existing supply chains operate under the premise of the single market, with no internal quotas or tariffs. The initial affect will be seen by the imposition of trade barriers, caused by a new trade agreement. This does not just extend to trade tariffs, but also to the implementation of VAT (BTW) on B2B transactions. The dairy industry is one that could be hit especially hard. EU tariffs for non-EU countries are as high as 45 per cent on some dairy products.
Non trade barriers are also a threat – different technical standards, labelling, compliance, together with extended delays in the shipment process (as goods will need to be inspected) will add to both the cost and time of trade.

KYC

All parties will be affected – but do you know what the position is of your clients in the UK? What are their pain thresholds; are they seeking alternatives markets; are they looking for alternative suppliers; how resilient are their logistical chains to change; how will changes in law and regulations affect their operations?
There are a myriad of unanswered questions that need to be addressed – one on one – with every counterparty.

What to do

It is imperative that companies perform a Quick Scan as soon as possible to try and evaluate what their exposure is in the UK and what percentage that makes of all trade for a company. Having ascertained the exposure, it then becomes necessary to stress test the processes and try to model the results on the company by inputting new variables.

With less than 1 year to go, you will need to start very soon!!

Lionel Pavey

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

Make room for the treasury controller!

| 01-05-2018 | Pieter de Kiewit |

Cash PoolingLately we have received an increasing number of calls from companies asking about treasury controllers. For various reasons this is understandable, but they are not the easiest to find and there is appears to be quite a wide variety. Let’s elaborate.

Over the last few years, many corporates have been quite frugal in their investments, also in treasury. Times were hard. Now funds are getting available, there is willingness to hire, also treasury controllers. The rising investments in treasury IT, also related to aforementioned funds, often leads to less work for the back office and possibly also the front office. Platforms like 360T or FXAll are examples, but also algo trading. Choosing the system and taking care of what it should do and what it actually does, is often one of many tasks of the treasury controller.

The chaos in the financial markets made regulators increase the number of rules that banks and also corporates have to follow. Furthermore companies expanding globally, and funding their subsidiaries have to following strict internal and external  (fiscal and banking) rules. Implementing this framework and being compliant can also be an important task of a treasury controller.

F&A and corporate treasury have been quite well at co-existing in separate worlds and not bothering each other. F&A wants to be in control and appreciates predictability. Treasury is motivated by the dynamics of the markets and adrenaline. But companies integrate functionalities and the treasury controller will build the bridge.

Now why is the search quite hard? First of all because of the drivers mentioned in the last paragraph: the treasurer does not like too much predictability and the controller does not (want to) understand the financial markets. And having thorough knowledge of several functionalities: bookkeeping, IT, regulatory and risk management and make them work well together is not easy. Finally not many corporate treasuries are big enough for a qualified treasury controller. This leads to well paid Big4 auditors and bank controllers. And us having search assignments. Any thoughts and are you interested?

We would like to hear from you,

Pieter, Heleen and Kim

Pieter de Kiewit
[email protected] / +31 6 1111 9783

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

Hyperledger blockchain projects: from incubation to production-ready status

| 26-04-2018 | Carlo de Meijer |

Last year I wrote a blog on the Hyperledger project and what that could mean for blockchain acceptance (see my blog: Hyperledger Project: collaboration pays off, 9 April 2017). We are now almost a year later and I am wondering if they are meeting my expectations. “2017 was a milestone year for Hyperledger both for new members and for new technical breakthroughs. In 2017 we doubled our membership, gaining companies like American Express, Cisco, Daimler and Baidu, and we’re expecting more companies and organizations to join in 2018.” Brian Behlendorf, Executive Director, Hyperledger.

Many blockchain followers know the Hyperledger Fabric Framework. This is the most used one in the various trials worldwide. But in the meantime the Hyperledger community has developed a whole series of these projects and tools that are less familiar. The purpose of this blog is to get more insight into these offerings and how they are developing from the incubation to the real production-ready status.

But first of all a reminder!

The Hyperledger Project

The Hyperledger project that was launched end 2015, is the international blockchain consortium of companies and organizations hosted by the Linux Foundation. Their goal is to collectively build an open source platform for the development of blockchains. Hyperledger thereby aims to enable organizations to build robust, industry-specific applications, platforms and hardware systems to support their individual business transactions by creating enterprise grade, open source distributed ledger frameworks and code bases.

The project has attracted the attention of several large companies that were early adopters of distributed ledger technologies at that time. The consortium nearly doubled in size last year to reach almost 200 members. Today, more than 220 organizations now support the Hyperledger initiative, including leading companies in finance, banking, Internet of Things, supply chains, manufacturing and technology development.

Pros of the Hyperledger project

The Hyperledger project has a number of pros that distinct them from other blockchain consortia. First of all Hyperledger is open-source, offering a “neutral home” for incubating technology. They are developing codes as open-source and bringing enterprises together to share knowledge and experience. This may lead to much faster adoption and better solutions than if it is simply built in-house. Second, Hyperledger is not focusing on one area of appliance, but on universal use cases. The software developed at Hyperledger has been adopted in many industries including supply chain, healthcare, finance etc. But what is more important, the Hyperledger Fabric, one of the (considered) most mature, extensive, flexible and active developed frameworks, allows users to create private channels in public settings, enabling the security and privacy that is needed.

Umbrella strategy

Hyperledger operates under an “umbrella” strategy. It is set up as a specialized hub for blockchain projects that facilitates not only the development, but also the commercialization of enterprise-grade blockchain based projects. Hyperledger “incubates” and promotes blockchain technologies for business, including distributed ledgers, client libraries, graphical interfaces and smart contract engines.

This strategy nowadays encompasses a (growing) number of blockchain projects, including blockchain frameworks, in addition to a number of development tools. At the moment Hyperledger incubates nine business blockchain and distributed ledger technologies, of which five blockchain frameworks and three development tools. These are in various stages of development and cover unique blockchain applications.

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

 

Rising bond yields – winners and losers

| 25-04-2018 | treasuryXL |

It is the talk of the town – US 10 year Government bond yields are rising and testing the perceived psychological level of 3 per cent. At the same time the whole yield curve is flattening – the spreads are diminishing. There are growing concerns about rising inflation, along with fears of trade wars and rising oil prices. When the threat of inflation occurs, there is a selloff in bonds and their yield goes higher. At the same time as the yield curve is flattening there is talk of the yield curve becoming inverted which, historically, is seen as the precursor to a recession. Conflicting signals – what does it all mean?

The rise in bond yields is a global trend – the same is being seen in Europe and the UK. In the last week data from the EU zone showed that the economy appears to be slowing down – or increasing at a slower rate than was previously seen. However the effects of Quantitative Easing programmes in the different countries has led to a great divergence in rates.

  • For the period from 1999 to 2008 the average 10 year bond yields were as follows:
  • Germany 3%
  • United States 8%
  • United Kingdom 8%

 

  • For the period from 2008 to 2018 the average 10 year bond yields were:
  • Germany 7%
  • United States 5%
  • United Kingdom 5%

However at present the yields are 0.6% for Germany; 3.0% for United States; and 1.5% for United Kingdom

It is clear that the due to this large divergence the effects of rising US bond yield will have a very large impact on bond yields in other countries and the exchange rates.

Recession?

Classical economic theory states that inverted yield curves are a sign of recessions and down turns in the economy. Yield curves invert when the short term rates exceed the long term rates. However an inverted yield curve is not the cause of a recession. As the Fed has been pursuing a policy of gradual interest rate rises, it is not unrealistic to expect that to lead to a tightening over the whole curve. As investors expect short term yields to rise – leading to an eventual rise in long term rates – their area of focus changes and they position themselves by selling long dated bonds, causing a rise in long dated yields.

At the same time market analysts are saying that the global economy has reached a new departure point – there has been a significant shift in interest rate perceptions and that whilst rates can and will rise, they will not revert to the mean. However, as investors chase yield a major rise in US bond yields will impact on other bond markets. When the US bonds are yielding 400% more than their Eurozone counterparts, there are serious worries that investors will flock to the US market, unless the ECB announces the end of QE, which would lead to rising Euro yields.

There is also a possible knock on effect to the equity markets. Rising bond yields suddenly make equities less attractive. It could be that volatility is about to return and that Treasurers will need to look at their hedging policies.

SME and bank lending – a dying market?

Read more

Static Data – unsexy, but imperative to workflows

| 23-04-2018 | treasuryXL |

We live in the world of Big Data – we are told that there is so much potential that can be unleashed by embracing Big Data. This can lead to business efficiency, increased revenue, reduced expenditure, earlier identification of fraud etc. But for all this to reach fruition, we need to rely on the most basic building block – Static Data. Many companies have grand ideas of how to maximise revenue with data streams, yet fail to grasp the essential need for good, sound, structured Static Data.

Definition

This is data that remains constant (mostly) during the lifetime of its use; once input and recorded it becomes static and is used as reference data. The most logical example would be the data on relationships – when a company starts trading with a new supplier, a new record needs to be added to the bookkeeping system.

Types of data include:

  • Legal name of counterparty
  • Short name
  • Legal address
  • Telephone number
  • Fax number
  • Email
  • Contact persons
  • IBAN
  • BIC Code
  • KvK number
  • BTW number

Once the Static Data has been input it should only be changed by authorized staff. Dynamic data – the lifeblood of Big Data – can later be input (trades, invoice numbers, delivery dates, amounts etc.), but it needs good Static Data to make the data consistent. The complete data set for a counterparty must always be unique – there can not be 2 entities with the same set of data.

The structure of the data is also important – it could quite easily be the case that a company has one large client with the same bank details, but relationships with 5 different divisions. It is therefore essential that the correct protocols are in place for consistent data – whilst the legal name will be the same the importance of the short name becomes evident.

When it goes wrong

Inter company communication does not always involve use of a bookkeeping system. If staff start referring to a counterparty by another name than is in the system or use a name that is in the system but not the name they mean, problems can occur. Incorrect bookings arise which can lead to incorrect exposure levels or limits being breached. It can also be that a legal entity in a different country is referenced as they have offices in more than 1 country and issues such as VAT (BTW) can suddenly appear.

The need for secure Static Data is very high – the consequences of errors should never be underestimated. Data entry should be undertaken by people who do not enter any other data into the systems – in other words it should not be undertaken by the same staff that work in debtor and creditor administration.

Furthermore, a clearly defined protocol needs to be implemented to determine when and how Static Data can be changed.

In a little more than 1 month from now, GDPR comes into effect. The urgency to understand Static Data and to appreciate its significant contribution to daily operations has never been greater.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us.

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The Bank of England – a fintech company?

| 20-04-2018 | treasuryXL |

The Old Lady has a long history – the second oldest central bank, who has always kept the market in check. Whilst the financial Big Bang of 1986 changed the landscape in the Square Mile, her power and influence are still very evident. On Wednesday, she surprised the banking market by granting direct access to her interbank payments system to a Fintech company. This means that they can process their payments without having to use a commercial bank as an intermediary. What is the motivation for this step and what are the consequences?

Transferwise is a peer-to-peer money transfer service with its main head office in London, whilst being based in Estonia. Turnover per month reached in excess of EUR 1 billion in May 2017. They have developed a money transfer systems that reduces the amount of cross border payments but trying to match supply and demand in different countries. By reducing the actual number of cross border payments and using mid-rates for FX calculations, they are able to offer a competitive alternative to traditional bank transfers.

They have now be granted direct access via the Faster Payments Scheme to the Real Time Gross Settlement system run by the Bank of England. Allowing direct settlement will lead to reductions in costs whilst, at the same time, speeding up the money transfers. This means that Transferwise can compete evenly with large commercial banks.

The Bank of England stated “by stimulating competition and innovation, we anticipate increased diversity and risk-reducing payment technologies will reinforce financial stability while enhancing customer service.” Fintech is having a clear impact on the revenue of traditional banks in London. A survey by Accenture shows that non banks now account for 14 per cent of the annual revenue in the payment sector.

This is forcing banks to design and adopt new solutions – mainly built around the blockchain. What is remarkable is that the Bank of England appear to be taking a very proactive approach to how the payments market will develop in the future, and recognising the role that Fintech has to offer in this area. They are looking at ways to increase efficiency and transparency in financial markets.

The Bank of England is leading the central bank market in providing new solutions. A policy of first adoption could lead to a huge advantage in the payment transfer market. As these solutions are cross border, other central banks would do well to investigate this trend and come up with their own solutions as soon as possible.

It also provides a counterpoint to MiFID II, and shows how the payments industry could be structured in the future.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us.

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Letter of Credit – financing international trade

| 19-04-2018 | treasuryXL |

Cash Pooling

 

When a buyer and seller agree to enter into a transaction that is cross border, one of the most used instruments to facilitate this transaction is a documentary letter of credit (LC). This is an international recognised and accepted method that is governed by the rules and regulations of the International Chamber of Commerce. LCs are mainly used for international transactions, where the seller requires additional security and also where the law in 2 deferent jurisdictions are not the same. However, protection is also given to the buyer. Here is a quick guideline to how this instrument works.

Deal

A buyer and seller agree to a trade and, invariably due to the distance between them, the different laws, and the fact that they may have no previous trading relationship, the trade will take place under a LC. Upon agreeing the trade, the buyer will contact his bank and ask them to issue a LC (Issuing Bank). As the bank will provide a guarantee role in this transaction, they first need to ascertain if the buyer has sufficient funding to settle the transaction.

The letter of credit is then sent to the seller’s bank (Advising Bank). Within this document the terms and conditions of the shipment are detailed. The issuing bank lets the seller know what documents are needed to accept the import, together with such items as the latest shipment date.

The seller will arrange for the necessary documentation and shipment. Then they will approach their bank and present them will the documents and the LC. This is all sent to the Issuing Bank who then checks that the documentation meets the terms contained within the LC.

Upon approval by the Issung Bank the following steps take place:

  • Account of the importer is debited
  • Documents are released to the importer so that they can claim the goods
  • Payment is made as per the instructions of the Advising bank
  • Advising Bank credit the account of the seller

As the issuing bank has issued a guarantee, the in the event that all the documentation meets the criteria agreed upon, then they are obligated to make payment to the seller.

It is of course possible that there are discrepancies between the LC and the documents delivered. As the documents are delivered by the seller to their bank (Advising Bank), it is they who have the first task of checking everything. If discrepancies arise, the advising bank will endeavour to ensure that the documents amended. If the discrepancy can not be amended within the agreed time frame, then the documents will be forwarded to the Issuing Bank “in trust”. Sending documents in this way removes the guarantee on the original letter of credit, so caution is necessary. It is possible that despite the discrepancies, the buyer is still prepared to accept the shipment.

The list of necessary documents includes, but is not limited to:

  • Bill of exchange
  • Bill of lading or airway bill
  • Invoice
  • Cargo packing list
  • Certificates certifying to authenticity, inspection, origin
  • Insurance policy

Despite the guarantee from the Issuing Bank, there are always risks – default by any of the parties, legal risks, acts of war, documents not arriving on time etc. A letter of credit specifically deals with the documentation and not the goods itself.

This is one of the oldest and most trusted methods for arranging trade finance, and given the complexity with all the documents and the time it can take to cross the world, this is an area of banking that is very keen to explore the advantages offered by the Blockchain to accelerate the whole process.

 

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us.

 

Data analysis – pros and cons

| 18-04-2018 | Lionel Pavey |

 

With the advent of computing and ever more powerful processing capabilities, we are living in a time where there is more and more data available within a company. Advocates of data mining speak of the advantages that can be obtained by analysing all the data and discovering trends within the data. But there is also the risk that we end up being swamped by the data overload – so much data, so little time. If we want to analyse all our data, what is it that we truly want to find? How can we interpret all the data and arrive at beneficial conclusions?


Treasurers and cash managers are long time users of data analysis – it is used to go from a macro level to a micro level for individual transactions. When designing a cash flow forecast it is essential to take the micro approach. There will always be peak days for outflows – wages are paid, normally, on 1 specific day of the month; on the last working day of the month there is large expenditure relating to taxes and social premiums. Additionally, if the company works with monthly subscriptions, there will be peak days for inflows as all the renewals take place. These “exceptional” items need to be input as hard data on the relevant working days to assist in presenting an accurate forecast.

Another application of data analysis is to interrogate the actual Days Sales and Days Purchasing Outstanding – DSOs and DPOs – that make up the cash conversion cycle. A lot of unnecessary working capital can be tied up in this process. Understanding the transactional characteristics of individual debtors and creditors can be very beneficial to freeing up working capital. Furthermore, it allows the company to review their relationships – is it worth maintaining certain contacts if they do not meet the agreed terms and conditions on their trade transactions.

It is also possible to conclude that certain clients could benefit from a more advantageous pricing policy. Rewarding those that comply leads to better relationships and the improvements in cash flow can help reduce external borrowing requirements.

When attempting to analyse data, it is imperative to first understand what you are looking for. Obvious metrics could be month on month sales or purchases, seasonal effects on turnover, new products, promotional offers etc. The act of analysing data, together with the awareness within the company that the data is being analysed, can lead to anomalies caused by people’s actions. Data input could be subject to a form of “window dressing” – entries are made before the end of the month and then corrected in the following month.

It is possible to conclude that there is a trend in the data – some people even look for these – that could lead to a false sense of conclusion. There is also the danger that 2 different streams of data are linked to each other because they show the same trends. When analysing data is it necessary to be open minded about the expected outcome. If people start analysing with a preconceived idea of what the outcome should be, human nature can intervene and the data is interpreted in a way that justifies the preconceived idea.

Data analysis is a technical discipline that can overlook the fundamentals. Before the CDO crisis of 2008, most banks agreed with the interpretation of the underlying data within the systems, without challenging the reality of the scenarios being presented. Even after the crisis started, the banks were unable to foresee the severe impact that it would have on the whole financial market. I have a curious leaning to analysing long term interest rates – I have collated data on Interest Rate Swaps since the inception of the Euro. Whilst I am able to spot long term trends, I have failed in ever calling the top or the bottom of the market.

When analysing data, it is imperative that the basic fundamentals of a company and its products is never forgotten, If sales are down, a more fundamental approach needs to be undertaken. Are our competitors cheaper, are their products better, is the economy in a downturn, are our products obsolete?

Analysis should always be undertaken, but the results must always be weighed up against the reality of the marketplace. It is too easy to draw conclusions – it gives the illusion that the analysis is good.

A lot of good things can come from data analysis, but it must not exclusively determine the actions that a company takes in its quest for growth and survival.

Lionel Pavey

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

Short term financing – lines of credit

| 17-04-2018 | treasuryXL |

Cash PoolingThere are many instruments that can be used to obtain short term funding. We have touched on some of them earlier in this series. This article is all about lines of credit. These are normally provided by banks of other financial intermediaries and help corporates with their short term funding needs. At first glance is might appear to be the same as a short term loan, but there are some clear differences. Normally, the financial institute that is the counterparty, will provide you with a line of credit – after appropriate inspection – which sets a specific limit on the amount of credit to be extended. Let us see how this works.

An agreed line of credit will contain, within its contract, a few simple terms:

  • The maximum amount that can be drawn
  • The minimum amount that can be drawn
  • The minimum and maximum tenor
  • If based on floating rates – the base will be specified
  • The additional margin rate above the index rate
  • The end date of the facility
  • The facility fee – usually expressed in basis points

Facility Fee

When a bank extends a line of credit, they are actually earmarking these funds in their books – they have a contingent liability. The facility fee can be seen as the cost of the arrangement. Normally the facility fee is paid monthly on the notional amount outstanding on the facility. In other words, if 70% of the facility was not being used, then a facility fee would be owed at the end of the month on a pro rata basis for this amount.

Drawdowns are communicated via the agreed channels and the bank credits the client. Lines can either be secured or unsecured – a secured line would attract a lower interest rate payable. Furthermore, normal corporate governance would apply in respect of bank compliance – agreed ratios must be maintained in order to keep the facility running.

The main advantage with a line of credit, is that the client has the flexibility to borrow exactly the amount that they require – given the contract conditions – and also have flexibility regarding the tenor. With a traditional loan, they would receive all the funds on the first day, irrespective of if they actually needed all the funds on that day.

Interest is only paid on the amount borrowed – not on the whole facility. For the balance, as mentioned earlier, a facility is payable. Due to its revolving nature, the facility can be used for many times during the agreed life of the facility. This gives the borrower enormous flexibility and ensures that they never need to borrow more than they actually require.

This product is normally used for operational issues, that are influenced by specific factors. It could be that a company is exposed to seasonal factors that result in a shortage of cash. A line of credit enables the company to smooth out these peaks and troughs and ease the bottlenecks restricting their operations. Additionally, due to the time lag inherent in many companies between delivering goods and receiving payment a line of credit ensures continuation of the daily operations.

The product can be renewed, but will be subject to a new inspection and, possibly, new terms and conditions at renewal. For companies that experience wide fluctuations in cash flows, this is a useful product to arrange their short term funding.

 

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us.

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