Blockchain: Predictions for 2018

| 11-01-2018 | Carlo de Meijer |

2017 was a year of interesting developments in the blockchain area. Not all happened as was expected. Many, including me, predicted 2017 to be the year that blockchain would move from proof-of-concepts into real world production. Yes, we did see some great successes here, like IBM, R3CEV, … But the number of real world applications that entered the market was far less than anticipated. On the other hand there were some unexpected ones. This year the concept of blockchain started to capture also people’s attention. But that was triggered by the specular and unexpected rise of the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. And also the ICO boom came out of the blue. Now we are nearing the new year, it is time to look forward. What will bring 2018 for blockchain and distributed ledger technology? How will Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies develop. And how the acceptance of blockchain technology will evolve in 2018? In this blog I like to share my ideas and opinions on what trends and developments to look for in 2018. Let’s go!

1. Another chaotic year for cryptocurrencies

2017 was the year of the cryptocurrency hype. This is expected to continue for some time. 2018 will be another booming year for cryptocurrency yet, but with many hiccups. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a whole will continue to experience great volatility though 2018 and may experience a significant correction. The main question is: where will Bitcoin’s floor be when it lack of utility becomes apparent to investors? We will see further widespread buying of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. It has been primarily retail investors pushing the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. But with a futures market and options to reduce the risk profile, more institutional investors will finally be able to start jumping in. Private investors however should be aware. For Bitcoin to sustain its rally, scaling solutions must work in the real world. And that is not expected to happen overnight. None of these cryptocurrencies are suited to playing the most basic role of currency, as a relatively stable medium of exchange. We are therefore not going to see Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies emerge as a payment network. It will just be used as a speculative asset and store of value.

2. Regulators are stepping in

2008 will be the year of increasing regulation in a growing number of countries. This year legislators and regulators worldwide already stepped in especially in the cryptocurrency area and ICOs. The South Korean government recently announced new rules to regulate the trade in Bitcoins. South Korea, an important hub for Bitcoins, aims to regulate the trade in Bitcoins, forbid anonymous Bitcoins accounts and wish to have the possibility to close trading houses. Earlier China announced the closing of a number of these trading houses. While British and American supervisors expressed similar warnings. Europe is still on the regulatory exploration phase. But there are increasing signs that they will also become more active. The Central Banks of Germany and France have expressed their wish to reign in cryptocurrencies. Also the European Commission has plead for “increased vigilance” towards cryptocurrencies. In 2018 legislators and regulators worldwide will intensify their watchdog role on both blockchain and cryptocurrencies. As a result we will see a growing number of regulators come with regulatory measures to close the gaps where blockchain and cryptocurrencies was violating existing law. Crypto exchanges will get audited and regulated. Some will even be taken down. This may cause heavy corrections in the Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies rates.

3. Not the end of the ICO

One of the spectacular and unexpected developments in 2017 was the ICO boom and the launch of tokens. Regulators worldwide have started to reign in ICO’s in order to protect investors. And we will see further regulation tightening on ICOs in 2018 in a growing number of countries. Though this will not mean the end of ICOs, there will be a shakeout in ICOs and a capital flight to quality. ICOs will be cleaner and tighter, and investors will level for governance and put of their due diligence. It will be harder to get funding simply on the back of a white paper. Investors will demand sound business plans and high levels of transparency, with all that entails. Regulation will trigger traditional players to get involved. There will be a lot more institutional capital that will all go to the highest quality projects. We will also see the rise of securities tokens in response to increased regulation. Especial people with experience and expertise in the IPO world are expected to embrace tokenization as a technical platform. Despite an increase in regulation in the crypto space, it is expected that blockchain as a technology will not be hindered by heavy regulation. Based on this, we see even bigger achievements on the horizon for 2018, with blockchain becoming a more widely adopted mainstream technology not only in the financial sector but also beyond including retail, logistics and healthcare. We will increasingly observe a wider range of use cases for blockchain — across small and large-scale applications and across a wide range of industries within both the public and private sector.

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

 

Bitcoin mania: what is it not?

| 20-12-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

During our stay in South Africa I was reading an article in Die Burger (newspaper for Afrikaners) where a spokesman of Cape town-based PWC gave his ideas on the recent rise of Bitcoin and the future of Blokketting (Afrikaans for Blockchain). This inspired me to write this blog. Since I started writing about blockchain I categorically refused to use the term Bitcoin. But this time it is different. As Bitcoin nears the end of a record-breaking year, it seems an appropriate time to dive into this – by many traditional players said – over-hyped thing. Others describe this fascination for Bitcoins as a “speculative mania”. The broader public has discovered this phenomenon. I will not say it is (already) the end of the rise in Bitcoins or other crypto currencies. But let me be clear: Bitcoin is a lot not!

Bitcoin rate explodes

Since April this year the Bitcoin (but also crypto currencies like Ether and Bitcoin Cash) is showing a continuous rising trend and in the past few months it even exploded to unexpected levels. In one month time the rate of the Bitcoin almost doubled. In the meantime the Bitcoin rate increased further to reach almost 20.000 dollar, before falling back to 16.000 dollar. But now it is back at  19.000 dollar. At the beginning of this year the Bitcoin rate was not even 1000 dollar. The total market capitalisation of Bitcoin is now exceeding that of a company like Boeing and that of New Zeeland’s GDP.

Bitcoins traded on futures market

The recent firm rate rise of the Bitcoin has much to do with the launch of Bitcoin future contracts. Before that Bitcoins could only be sold or bought via internet platforms. Last week the trade of future contracts in Bitcoin started on the Chicago Options Exchange ( CBOE). These futures enable speculators (without having Bitcoins) to buy or sell Bitcoins by betting  via the leverage instrument on future increases of the Bitcoin or an eventual decrease thereby hedging against fluctuations. In total 500 contracts were traded on the first trading session. The rate of Bitcoins increased nearly 2.000 dollar to 18.700 dollar. On the American market place Coinbase the Bitcoin even reached 20.000 dollar, after having raised 40% in the two previous days. This indicates that investors do not (yet) expect a crash short term.

In the meantime also the Chicago CME, the world’s largest exchange,  started trading Bitcoin futures and the Nasdaq is also in the race to enable the trade in these future contracts. Many professional investors however did not yet enter this market because the difference between bid and offer rates is still much too large. This indicates there is too less liquidity in this market. There is also insufficient clarity of the required margins, trade limits, stress tests and clearing.

What is Bitcoin not?

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on Finextra

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

 

R3CEV Corda Platform: the blockchain app store

| 04-12-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

App Store In May this year, fintech start-up R3 raised $107 million from a consortium of the world’s top banks. The New York-based blockchain company that works in collaboration with more than 90 banks and other financial organizations world-wide, plans to use the money to invest in further developing the Corda platform (see my blog: Corda: distributed ledger ….. not blockchain! April 6, 2016) as well as “encouraging entrepreneurs to start building on the platform though training videos and hackathons”.  

Fundraising

R3 gained momentum when it achieved this record distributed ledger technology funding in its last funding round. This figure that was raised by 40 institutions from more than 15 countries across the world (including names like Barclays, SBI, UBS, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, HSBC, ING, and Wells Fargo), is known as the largest single investment in a blockchain company to date. This is also seen as a signal that R3, with their Corda Platform, is moving in a right direction, according to many in the banking industry. This notwithstanding some of the early members left.

“R3 will use the funding to: [A]ccelerate technology development and expand strategic partnerships for product deployment. The company’s efforts will be focused on Corda, R3’s DLT platform for regulated financial institutions, and its infrastructure network, which will support a vast range of partner-built financial applications that interoperate seamlessly with each other, existing systems and networks.” R3’s press release

New members

Notwithstanding a number of early partners left the R3 consortium including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Santander, it still attracts new members showing their viability in the blockchain arena. Like the Bahrain based Bank ABC (Arab Banking Corporation), Abu Dhabi Global Market and the International Trade and Forfaiting Association (IFTA). The latter will be involved in the various trade finance projects. Recently also the Banco de la Republico Colombia, the Colombian central bank, joined the R3 consortium. The partnership with various central banks is part of R3’s plan to diversify its consortium membership by the addition of financial regulators and government agencies.

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

 

Accenture and blockchain: the accent on security issues

| 13-11-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

My last blog was about IBM, triggered by a Juniper Research putting the company as the number one in the blockchain technology competition. One of the comments on this blog was that it looked like an IBM press release. But that is far beyond what is meant. I just looked at what the tech company was doing in the blockchain arena and why it could be adopted as the main blockchain model when blockchain adoption could become mainstream. In a previous blog I already talked about Microsoft’s CoCo platform, the number two in the Juniper Research asking myself if that could become a game changer (see my Blog: Microsoft CoCo Framework: blockchain game changer, August 29, 2017). Today I will go into some more detail in the blockchain activities of Accenture, number three according to the Juniper survey.

Accenture: where do they stand?

Looking at the various blockchain alliances or consortiums, of the top three in the Juniper Research, Accenture is the most broadly focused one. Being a member of both the Ethereum Enterprise Alliance and the Hyperledger Project as well as entered into alliance with Ripple and Digital Asset. Early this year Accenture also joined the Chamber of Digital Commerce (CDC), the world’s leading blockchain trade association. The CDC, aimed to “help educate, promote and accelerate the adoption of blockchain-enabled technologies” , is also the founder of the Smart Contracts Alliance, the Blockchain Alliance, the Global Blockchain Forum amongst others.

Compared to IBM (Hyperledger Project and Digital Asset) and Microsoft (Ethereum Enterprise Alliance and Ripple) that are more outspoken in their vision, the overall goal of Accenture is to leverage DLT innovations of all sorts to make the technology viable for enterprise IT use.

“Accenture strives to be at the forefront of blockchain innovation and its practical, real world application. We provide our clients with a complete view of the blockchain-based technology landscape and its potential business implications. Our global team of experts works with each client to help build smart strategies around effective use-cases, investment and implementation.”Accenture website

“Accenture is committed to supporting these efforts by leveraging our expertise across the company – from regulation to innovation – to make blockchain a reality for our clients.” David Treat, managing director of Accenture’s financial services industry blockchain

Accenture: focus on security issues

Accenture is especially focusing on security issues. These will be critical to the widespread adoption of blockchain technology. In February this year Accenture launched its new blockchain security hardware solution and recently the company has secured a patent related to its work on Editable Blockchain technology as of late September 2017.

Blockchain Hardware solution

Last February Accenture launched its new blockchain security hardware solution. In partnership with Thales e-Security and its hardware security modules (HSMs), Accenture has developed a Hyperledger Fabric-based patent-pending solution…..

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

IBM: International Blockchain Model of the future?

| 16-10-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

According to a recent Juniper Research study “Blockchain Enterprise Survey”, IBM is seen as the number one provider of blockchain to business, well ahead of its competitors. These results are based on a survey of 400 business users from organisations actively considering, or in the process of deploying blockchain technology. Of the surveyed 43% ranked IBM first, followed by Microsoft (20%) and Accenture.

IBM is better positioned than competitors as far as its blockchain credentials are concerned. The study noted that IBM’s high-profile research development efforts and use of Hyperledger “helped push it to the number one spot”. IBM has been making considerable steps forward not only by research. Also with the development of a great number of projects aimed at broadening the scope of distributed ledger technology to include industries other than the financial services, including asset tracking, logistics, healthcare and the music industry.

Though this blog will especially focus on IBM, I will start showing the main differences between its main rival, Microsoft and that of IBM in their blockchain approach.

IBM versus Microsoft: different approaches

IBM and Microsoft are now intensively working to become the dominant commercial blockchain-as-a-service (BaaS) platform. They are positioning themselves in the middle of a “frenzy” of blockchain projects and partnerships.

While Microsoft has been adding blockchain modules to its cloud platform Azure already since 2015, IBM launched the first commercial application of blockchain named IBM Blockchain just in March this year. Both systems seem similar on the surface: modular, operate in the cloud, based on open-source code, with massive ecosystems. Both are decentralized ledgers that can be used to manage and validate almost any type of transactions.

Different visions

But on closer inspection it is clear they have different visions for blockchain technology. Both are They thereby are taking decidedly different paths. These two big tech corporates are …

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

Regulation of ICOs: the end or beginning of a healthy market?

| 29-9-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

One of the hottest – and also one of the most controversial – things in the crypto currency environment are so-called Initial Coin Offerings or ICOs. ICOs, which employ the use of crypto currencies, have become a popular means of fundraising for start-ups in recent months. The increasing need of blockchain technology and the lack of regulation allows them to raise money quickly in return to so-called tokens (also described as digital certificates). This hype has driven a steep rise in this sector’s market value, reaching a high of $177 bn.

The latest cryptocurrency boom however is beginning to stall as a growing number of regulators worldwide turn their attention to the ICOs world and have decided to come into action. China recently decided even to ban these ICOs. And others such as the US SEC, Singapore, Hong Kong, Russia and others followed soon though in a more lighter variant.

Is this the end of fundraising via ICOs or should it be seen as the beginning of a healthy market?

ICO hype

ICOs have become highly popular. In the past months there has been a complete hype around ICOs. ICOs have allowed digital currency start-ups, to raise millions of dollars quickly, in many cases from ordinary investors. The ICO fever is especially triggered by the success of Ethereum, the platform that invented the digital currency Ether. Already in 2014 Ethereum arranged a very successful ICO.

More than $1,6 billion has been raised worldwide from these ICOs up till now. China for example has seen 65 ICOs and 2.62 billion yuan ($400 million) raised from more than 100.000 individuals so far in 2017.

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

Microsoft Coco Framework: blockchain game changer?

|18-9-2017 | Carlo de Meijer | treasuryXL

Microsoft recently announced the introduction of the Coco (or Confidential Consortium) Framework. A ‘first of its kind innovation’ as they named it, designed to work with any ledger or operating system. CoCo is a blockchain protocol technology aimed to make it easier to build enterprise networks quicker and more secure using any distributed ledger. Our expert Carlo de Meijer explains the relevance of the new technology for confidential consortiums in an article on LinkedIn.
We present a short summary of the article.

What’s the issue?

Corporate interest in blockchains is firmly growing. Embracing this innovative technology however remains a big hurdle for most enterprises, as there is no unified approach in this regard. As a result they have difficulties integrating in into their systems.

There are many different blockchains, but major blockchains are not designed to be interoperable with one another. As enterprises look to apply blockchain technology to meet their business needs, they’ve come to realize that many existing blockchain protocols fail to meet key business requirements. The problem is that most blockchain protocols today require complex development techniques to meet the operational and security needs of enterprises.
Issues like performance, confidentiality of data, governance and required processing power are still major stumbling blocks for using blockchains. One of the other key enterprise blockchain problems is that of access controls for transactions.

What is the Coco Framework?

The Coco Framework is an open-source Ethereum-based protocol, designed to provide high-scale and confidential blockchain networks for enterprise purposes. It should be seen as the foundation of blockchain for the enterprise.

It is designed to work with any ledger or operating system. It can connect existing blockchains with one another. The Framework is targeted especially for consortiums where nodes and actors can be controlled.

The Coco Framework is built to address some of the current limitations of enterprise blockchain. It is meant to reduce the complexity currently associated with blockchain protocol technology and make it easier for enterprises to adopt blockchain technology. This by increasing transaction speeds, offering confidentiality and simplify governance decisions. The ultimate goal is to boost widespread adoption, particularly among enterprises, of blockchain technology.

The CoCo Framework is not a decentralised solution in this regard as participants will still be able to exert a high degree of control over their blockchain. CoCo is more of a distributed ledger-oriented approach than a decentralised technology.

The design of the CoCo Framework

Microsoft is developing the CoCo Framework in cooperation with Intel, JP Morgan and Ethereum. The Coco platform is designed specifically for confidential consortiums, through the introduction of a trusted execution environment (TEE), advanced cryptography and innovative blockchain-focused consensus mechanisms “to open up new blockchain enabled scenarios across industries”.

The Coco Framework needs a trusted execution environment where nodes and actors are explicitly declared and controlled because it relies on shared trust between machines running modified blockchain software in order to avoid the need for transaction verification. With these TEEs a network of trusted enclaves can be build that all agree on the ledger and Coco code they are running. Because it’s an open framework, it can also support other compatible TEEs as they become available.

The idea is that enterprises may place their blockchain code in a trusted area, which is established through integrated tools such as Intel’s Software Guard Extensions (SGX) or Windows Virtual Secure Mode (VSM). These are hardware-based security technologies that the CoCo Framework uses to improve the throughput, efficiency and privacy of the blockchain.

Compatibility

The CoCo Framework is designed to integrate with a wide range of blockchains and distributed ledgers. It is meant to provide the infrastructural underpinnings for the growing number of such ledgers that are emerging from different vendors and groups. Although CoCo is not an actual ledger, it will help other companies with established blockchains to come together, link with each other and built large networks.

Problems to solve

Despite taking a more centralised approach there are many benefits to embracing the the CoCo Framework. When implemented into blockchain networks and processed in a trusted environment, allowing for a “simplified’ consensus mechanism” may solve the various privacy, speed and governance issues for commercial adoption by corporates. At the same time, ”they will not lack in security and immutability”, which are two of the driving factors behind blockchain technology as a whole.

According to the Coco Framework White Paper, these “enterprise-ready trusted blockchains networks” that all agree on the ledger and the CoCo code they are running, will deliver:

  • Throughput and latency approaching database speeds.
  • Richer, more flexible, business-specific confidentiality models.
  • Network policy management through distributed governance.
  • Support for non-deterministic transactions.
  • Reduced energy consumption.

When to start?

According to Microsoft, the company has now started exploring the CoCo Framework’s potential across different industries, such as retail, supply chain and financial services.

Microsoft plans to make the Coco Framework available as an open source software project by 2018. It will be posted to and available on Github.

You can find more details about CoCo in Carlo de Meijer’s article on LinkedIn.

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

 


More articles about blockchain technology from Carlo de Meijer:

 

How can treasurers use cryptocurrencies?

| 7-9-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

 

Recently I read a blog from Victoria Beckett published in GTNews, titled “How can treasurers use cryptocurrencies”.  Nowadays there are more than thousand different cryptocurrencies in circulation. The dollar value of the 20 biggest cryptocurrencies is around $ 150 billion. While cryptocurrencies soared to unknown levels, also the explosion in Initial Coin Offerings, or ICOs for funding purposes is evidence of their growing attraction. But are these cryptocurrencies suited for corporate treasuries.

Benefits

In her blog Victoria Beckett said that there are several benefits to treasurers using cryptocurrencies. These may bring various benefits including avoiding paying large transactions fees to banks, realising immediate payments and the ability for transactions to be kept open or private. According to her corporate treasury business no longer need to use mainstream financial regulatory frameworks. Cryptocurrencies could provide business with the ability to move assets outside of the normal banking regulatory framework.

She argued that one of the key benefits to making business payments using cryptocurrencies is that it cuts out banks in the transaction completely, avoiding large transaction fees, while “payments can also get transferred immediately anywhere in the world”.

Critics

But there were some critics as “banks have to trade off the operational benefits that the technology may provide against the added cost of needing to buy and sell a cryptocurrency to make a transaction.” “Therefore, the benefits are low when dealing with efficient ‘corridors’ such as US and Europe, but higher when transacting with Zimbabwe” David Putts.

Besides, there are a large number of different cryptocurrencies in circulation with different protocols etc. These are not interoperable/interchangeable.  So when using cryptocurrencies they at some point in time have to be transferred into fiat money. And that also costs money.

I also missed other use cases for corporate treasurers in the article. Just using cryptocurrencies payments would be a very limited use case, given the large number of other activities performed by corporate treasurers.

Risky business

When reading the article I got the impression that the risks of cryptocurrencies were rather  under estimated. Certain features of cryptocurrencies are not backed by any government, have no status as legal tender and rely on network protocols and cryptographic techniques to enable counterparties to transact. This may present various risks.
First of all cryptocurrency exchange platforms normally have no regulation. Thus there is no legal protection. And we have seen the various examples of hacking these exchanges with many people losing their money.
Second, virtual money is normally stored in a digital wallet on a computer. Though these wallets have passwords and key they are still valuable for hacking etc.
Third, there is no protection for funds under EU law when using cryptocurrencies as a means of payment. We still live in a largely fiat-money dominated world. So these cryptocurrencies had to be concerted one day into their own legal currency and that costs money.
Fourth, cryptocurrencies are very volatile. There is no guarantee that the cryptocurrencies will remain stable.  Cryptocurrencies currently lack a derivatives market, which makes them a risky medium for business contracts that last for any amount of timer, especially given their constant value fluctuations. This year for example the exchange rate of the bitcoin climbed from a low of 968 dollar to more than 3000, fell back to 1.800 six weeks ago and climbed to 5.000.
Fifth, due to the untraceable nature of cryptocurrencies, they provide a high degree of anonymity, making them vulnerable to misuse for criminal activities.

Action from regulators across the world

For some, it is a pro that cryptocurrencies in most countries are not regulated, such as for hackers and/or speculators.  That idea is however rapidly changing giving the risks associated. At a global level, there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity given the growth of the market.

All these risks mentioned above are prompting action from a growing number of jurisdictions.

Regulators in China have publicly announced that they will forbid the use of ICOs. And also regulators in other countries like Japan, Singapore, and the US are looking at ways to regulate. The SEC in the US has officially confirmed it was looking into regulation of cryptocurrency ICOs. The SEC is mainly concerned with the risks these ICOs pose. And Singapore will regulate ICO offerings that are deemed to be securities.

But also on a more broader scale Europa there is increased activity by regulators in Europe to reign in the use of crypto currencies. The EU Parliament is expected to pass measures soon to bring certain virtual currency service providers within their AML (anti money laundering) / CTF (counterfeiting) regulation. These measures do not seek to prevent the use of cryptocurrencies, but will require virtual currency service providers to implement customer due diligence measures.

Polish regulators are warning investors and banks to avoid dealing with digital currencies like bitcoin and ether. The regulators clarified that cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in Poland.

The Maltese regulatory watchdog (MFSA) also warned traders about the risks associated with the virtual currency. According to them a virtual currency is an unregulated digital instrument and is a form of money that is not equivalent to the national currencies. The MFSA however stressed that It does not (yet) regulate the acceptance of payment of service in regards to the virtual currencies.

Are central banks overcoming their reservations?

Central bankers, from Russia to China, Frankfurt and New York, are increasingly wary of the risks posed by these crypto currencies. I therefore question if central banks worldwide are overcoming their reservations versus cryptocurrencies and really come out in favour of the cryptocurrency.

The recent boom in cryptocurrencies and their underlying technology is becoming too big for central banks to ignore. The risk is that they are reacting too late to both the pitfalls and the opportunities presented by digital coinage.

Bitcoin and its peers pose a threat to the established money system by effectively circumventing it. CBs are well aware of losing control over the money supply, if they don’t react. A solution may be that CBs are issuing digital money themselves to maintain control. Various central banks worldwide are now experimenting with that idea.

Forward thinking

The attraction of virtual currencies is mainly for speculative reasons, rather than for corporates to facilitate treasury. Corporate treasuries are increasingly looking for centralisation of the treasury organisation away from decentralisation. They also are very much focused on reducing the various corporate risks including FX, short term interest rate, cross currency liquidity, etc.

And when it is regulated on a larger scale it is questionable if the described benefits of speed, efficiency or scalability attributed to the use of cryptocurrencies still will meet the costs associated .

The announcement by the Bank of China to put a halt on initial coin offerings or ICOs had a negative impact on the very volatile bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In one day it lost almost 15% of its value. The corporate treasurer however does not like volatility!

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

Industries are ready for blockchain take off

| 16-8-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

An interesting study was released recently by Juniper Research. Given its findings this survey needs some more widely spread recognition and that’s the reason for this blog. Named “Which industries are the best fit for blockchain”, this study came to some interesting conclusions, that were broadly in line with my blog of early June (see: Blockchain technology by 2018: a breakthrough, June 3, 2017). Their findings may underline my statement that we are further in the Gartner Cycle and that 2018 may be the year of the real breakthrough for blockchain technology for a number of industries. But for whom? Let’s have a look.

The study and its main finding

The survey’s main finding is that almost 40% of all interviewed (almost 370 executives, managers and IT profs) including 56% of the largest companies were either “considering” or “were in the process of employing blockchain solutions”.

This indicates that a majority of companies nowadays have a much greater understanding of blockchain and distributed ledger technology. They are recognizing that blockchain has the ” potential to be deployed in a variety of use cases”. There is also increased awareness amongst industries to consider deployment to gain competitive advantage.

Other findings

This “dramatic” increase in awareness is shown by the outcome that more than 80% of the surveyed companies have ‘a little’ or ‘a good’ understanding of blockchain

“It is clear that companies across the board have a significantly greater understanding of blockchain technology than was the case 12 months ago,”Juniper report.

More than three quarter of the respondents believe that blockchain could be ‘very useful’ or ‘quite useful’ for their company.
The time of exploring what blockchain is and what corporates can do with it lies largely behind us. It is now more about what blockchain systems to choose and how to integrate it in their legacy systems. Or as the study stated “It’s now much more geared to competing protocols, or the vetting of use cases …”.

Companies anticipating integration of blockchain

The survey also shows that many corporates are actively considering blockchain deployments.

Amongst the largest companies even 54% are in the so-called Proof of Concept (PoC) stage, while a further 16% is already involved in blockchain trials.
And those who already are in the PoC stage, two-thirds expect blockchain will be integrated in their legacy systems by the end of 2018.
While 81% of the smaller companies surveyed expect integration to be completed by the end of 2018, almost 60% of the large companies surveyed say they will reach that stage at that date.

Corporates and disruption

Despite the dramatic increase in blockchain awareness and identified benefits over the past 18 months, however, it is “critically important that companies consider all alternative options before deciding whether or not to deploy blockchain” according to the report.
Juniper mentioned that companies should consider whether blockchain is the necessary solution to their needs, as some companies under-estimate the challenges of deployment. They should seek “systemic change, rather than technological” innovation.

That “might be a better and cheaper solution than blockchain, which could potentially cause significant internal and external disruption.” Juniper report.

One main concern for the surveyed companies is in what way, who and where blockchain might disrupt not only their legacy systems but also their relationships with their clients. This is in part due to their fears around interoperability. Customers’ systems may no longer integrate with (or be compatible with) their upgraded systems.

The survey further shows that:

  • 35% of all corporates surveyed are considering or actually deploying blockchain and feel it will cause ‘significant’ disruption (in general)
  • And more than half of these corporates considering or actively deploying blockchain feel it will cause ‘significant’ disruption to their partners/customers
  • 42% of them were concerned that the reluctance or refusal of their clients or partners to deploy blockchain might cause them difficulties , compared with a quarter of all companies surveyed.

“Companies may have underestimated the scale of the blockchain challenge. For issues such as interoperability, the proportion of survey respondents expressing concerns progressively increased as companies proceed towards full deployment, while concerns also rose sharply regarding client refusal to embrace blockchain”. Juniper research

Who are the industries with largest blockchain opportunities?

This is a very interesting part of the survey. Jupiner Research conducted a comparative assessment of blockchain’ potential’s across 9 key industry areas. Main conclusion is that “in most cases, the more a vertical (industry) is suited to blockchain deployment, the greater the degree of implementation challenges”.

“Essentially, blockchain offers particular benefits to improve efficiency and corporate transparency; if an enterprise is heavily dependent upon paper-based storage and has high volumes of transactions or transmitted information, it can be especially effective.”  says Windsor Holden, blockchain specialist at Juniper

Deployments in verticals such as Utilities and Content Publishing do not pose the scale and variety of challenges involved in Financial Settlement, according to the survey. They however “will not achieve the extent of gains, cost savings, efficiencies and risk reduction as is possible in the financial settlement industry”, according to the Juniper Research survey.

And what industries are (already) fit for blockchain

According to the survey, when challenges are measured against the scale of the opportunity, industries like Automotive, Financial Settlement and Land Registry emerge as particularly interesting prospects for blockchain application. This compared to other segments such as Utilities, Telcos a.o.

This is not that strange as next to the relative successes achieved in blockchain integration especially in the financial sector thus far, blockchain may bring more benefits as it will be a real problem solver for these industries challenges. While the inherent characteristics of these sectors make them more suitable for blockchain technology.

What else is needed?

But that is not the whole storey. Corporates are not isolated entities. To be successful corporates should raise the awareness of blockchain’s capabilities at their customers. And before integrating blockchain in their own systems they should get a greater understanding of the scale of potential hurdles.

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

SWIFT Blockchain POC: Enhanced cross-border payments

| 8-8-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

Early July SWIFT announced that 22 global banks recently joined its Blockchain proof of concept (PoC) initiative introduced in January this year in collaboration with six leading correspondent banks (ANZ, BNP Paribas, BNY Mellon, RBC Royal Bank and Wells Fargo). The PoC is part of SWIFT’s ‘gpi’ (global payments innovation) service, the new standard for cross-border payments, aimed to “re-arm the correspondent banking system for a new age of technological disruption”. 

This Blockchain PoC initiative is designed to explore whether blockchain technology can help banks to improve the reconciliation of their international nostro accounts in real-time, optimising their global liquidity. If so, that would be a break through event for both SWIFT and blockchain.

Present state

Currently, banks cannot monitor their account positions in real-time due to lack of intraday reporting coverage. The present pain points banks currently experience when making cross-border payments center around a lack of visibility into the end-to-end transactions lifecycle. Under the current correspondent banking model, banks need to monitor the funds in their overseas accounts via debit and credit updates and end-of-day statements. The maintenance and operational work involved represents a significant portion of the cost of making cross-border payments.

“Cross border payments are like a black box for us. We don’t know when the funds will be credited, we don’t know what fees will be charged and we also have problems with reconciliation”. states Martin Schlageter, head of Treasury Operations at Swiss healthcare conglomerate Roche.

As such, the POC recognises the need for banks to receive real-time liquidity data in order to manage funds throughout the business day.

SWIFT GPI service

The PoC is being undertaken as part of SWIFT gpi, a new service that “may revolutionise the cross-border payments industry by combining real-time payments tracking with the speed and certainty of same-day settlement for international payments”.

The SWIFT gpi should be seen as SWIFT’s response to the problems they faced after a series of attacks events that showed that “all was not as secure as everyone believed”. SWIFT gpi initiative was first announced at the annual Sibos conference in 2015. The project went into live production in January this year to address core problems related to speed, transparency and traceability of cross border payments.

SWIFT gpi not only delivers a much-needed improvement in the speed of transaction, but also improves overall customer experience by creating predictable settlement times and clear statuses, through additional (unaltered transfer of) information on remittances and transparency around the FX rates and fees applied throughout the payment cycle.

“The ability to deliver enhanced remittance information alongside the payment will help customers make better decisions along the payment chain, while also creating better efficiency opportunities. The decision to make gpi available in the “cloud” is also exciting, and we anticipate this will lead to the development of entirely new services, that combine SWIFT gpi with capabilities provided by banks, clients and vendors.“ says Tom Halpin, Global Head of Payments Product Management, HSBC Global Liquidity and Cash Management

Key features

Key features of the SWIFT gpi service include a secure tracking database in the cloud accessible via APIs, and enhanced business rules.

Cornerstone of SWIFT gpi is the highly innovative new cross-border TRACKER, a special tracking feature that enables international payments to be traced real-time. It allows banks to provide corporate treasurers with a real-time, end-to-end view (visibility) on the status of their payments, including confirmations of the amount credited to the beneficiaries’ account. The Tracker is available via an open API, making it compatible with proprietary banking systems worldwide – helping to ensure maximum impact of gpi benefits at a greater adoption speed.

A second key feature is the OBSERVER, a quality assurance tool that monitors participants’ adherence to the gpi business rules. Gpi’s transparency ensures that remittance information such as invoice references, is transferred unaltered to recipients.

Gpi uptake

Membership is open to any supervised financial institution that agrees to comply with SWIFT’s business rules. But also non-bank organisations can join SWIFT gpi initiative. The SWIFT gpi service has received considerable bank support across the globe. And the number of global transaction banks that are actively using SWIFT’s gpi service is continuously growing. Since its launch the number of banks that are live with SWIFT gpi has risen beyond 100, and hundreds of thousands GPI payments have already been sent across 85 country corridors. This represents more than 75% of all SWIFT cross border payments.

“The increasing number of banks going live on this service addresses the demands of corporate treasurers. Hence, banks cannot afford to not join the initiative and go live as soon as possible. Our expectation is that all of our cross-border payments will be end-to-end Swift gpi payments in the future.” Group of Swiss corporates

SWIFT expects that numerous additional banks will join the gpi initiative in the coming months. The ambition is for all countries to be live by the end of 2017.

Phased approach

Next to the design of the second phase of SWIFT gpi, that is already underway focusing on additional digital capabilities and further enhancements such as ‘a rich payment data service’, for its third gpi phase SWIFT started exploring the potential of new technologies such as Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), including blockchain, through a Proof of Concept (PoC).

SWIFT Blockchain PoC

Launched in January 2017 with six founding banks the SWIFT Blockchain PoC initiative, designed to validate/explore whether blockchain can be used by banks to improve the reconciliation of their international nostro accounts (these are accounts that a bank holds in a foreign currency in another bank to handle international financial transactions for their customers) (these are accounts that a bank holds in a foreign currency in another bank to handle international financial transactions for their customers) in real –time, optimising their global liquidity. At its core, the PoC builds on SWIFT’s rulebook as part of the intraday liquidity standard gpi.

This SWIFT Blockchain PoC initiative aims to help banks overcome significant challenges in monitoring and managing their international nostro accounts, which are crucial to the facilitation of cross border payments.

“Whilst existing DLTs are not currently mature enough for cross-border payments, this technology, bolstered by some additional features from SWIFT, may be interesting for the associated account reconciliation,” “This PoC gives us the opportunity to test DLT and determine if it can be applied to this particular use case.” Wim Raymaekers, Head of Banking Market and SWIFT gpi at SWIFT

Characteristics

In developing the POC, SWIFT is leveraging the Hyperledger Fabric v1.0 technology, and combining it with key SWIFT assets, to bring it in line with the financial industry’s requirements.

“SWIFT will leverage its strong governance, PKI security scheme, BIC legal identifier framework and liquidity standards expertise to deliver a distinctive DLT PoC platform for the benefit of its community.” Damien Vanderveken, Head of R&D, SWIFTLabs and User Experience at SWIFT 

The PoC application will use a private permissioned blockchain in a closed user group environment, with specific user profiles and strong data controls. User privileges and data access will be strictly governed. This to ensure that all the information related to nostro/vostro accounts is kept private. Only account owners and its correspondent banking partners will see the details.

Collaboration

SWIFT gpi member banks can apply to participate in this Blockchain PoC. Next to the 6 founding banks, another 22 banks have recently joined the SWIFT blockchain PoC. They include include:

ABN AMRO Bank; ABSA Bank; BBVA; Banco Santander; China Construction Bank; China Minsheng Banking; Commerzbank; Deutsche Bank; Erste Group Bank; FirstRand Bank; Intesa Sanpaolo; JPMorgan Chase; Lloyds Bank; Mashreq Bank; Nedbank; Rabobank; Société Générale; Standard Bank of South Africa; Standard Chartered Bank; Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation; UniCredit; Westpac Banking Corporation.

“Collaboration is the cornerstone of innovation,” “This new group of banks allows us to greatly extend the scope of multi-lateral testing of the blockchain application and thus adds considerable weight to the findings. We warmly welcome the new banks and look forward to their insights”  says Wim Raymaekers, head of banking markets and SWIFT gpi at SWIFT.

Process

Moving forward, the SWIFT PoC Blockchain application will undergo testing, with the results scheduled to be published in September and presented at Sibos in Toronto in October. Working independently of the founding banks, the 22 institutions will act as a validation group to test in a deeper way the PoC’s Blockchain application, that is currently under development by SWIFT and the group of six founding banks. They will evaluate how the technology scales and performs.

Benefits

For banks

The potential business benefits ensuing from a successful SWIFT blockchain POC may be significant. If it proves to enable banks reconcile those nostro accounts more efficiently and in real time, that may lower costs and operational risk.

“The potential business benefits ensuing from the PoC are clear,” “If banks could manage their nostro account liquidity in real-time, it would allow them to accurately gauge how much money is required in each account at any given point, ultimately enabling them to free up significant funds for other investments.” Damien Vanderveken, head of R&D, SWIFTLab and UX at SWIFT.

It brings together banks worldwide who want to offer an enhanced cross-border payments experience to their corporate clients. By being part of SWIFT gpi, banks may improve the quality of their correspondent relationships and networks, helping to reduce risks and management costs and improve compliance.

“Transparency is key to a good end-to-end client experience. SWIFT gpi is a significant step in the evolution of correspondent banking, which remains the primary means through which cross-border payments are delivered worldwide. Bank of America Merrill Lynch is pleased to be working with like-minded institutions around the world to better serve each other and our respective customers.” states Greg Murray, head of Global Product Management for High Value Payments and FI/NBFI Products in Global Transaction Services at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

For corporate treasurers

SWIFT gpi may enable corporates engaged in international trade to get paid for services, or delivery of goods, in a more timely fashion, enabling a faster supply chain process. It also enables a more accurate reconciliation of payments and invoices, optimizes liquidity with improved cash forecasts and reduces exposure to FX risks with same-day processing of funds in the beneficiary’s time zone.

“Being part of SWIFT gpi, and working with our industry counterparts, is giving correspondent banks a platform to examine and refine current processes, and to collaborate and explore different, more efficient ways of doing things. Ultimately, our clients will benefit most from this initiative,” Kent Marais, head of TPS product management at Standard Bank SA.

SWIFT and the banks have designed the gpi services so that banks have flexibility in how they offer the new services. They can deliver the gpi service in very different ways. Services could potentially include enhanced invoice presentment and reconciliation to facilitate financial supply chains, exchange of supply chain documentation to improve global trade, exchange and interactive enquiry of account and processing conditions to improve end-to-end straight through processing, and providing additional party and transaction information to support compliance and sanctions screening of cross-border payments.

Enhanced cross-border payment service

“SWIFT has addressed several of the pain points corporates have had with cross-border payments,” “Changes to existing corporate payments infrastructures should be very limited, if any. So hopefully, corporates won’t need to make any major investments to benefit from smoother cross-border payments.” says Magnus Carlsson, AFP’s manager of treasury and payments

Given the size of the number of banks and corporates participating in SWIFT gpi, the SWIFT Blockchain PoC may face the challenge of scalability. If that could be solved in a successful way it may be another prove of the viability of blockchain and DLT to enhance cross-border payments.

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

 

 

More on blockchain from this author:

Blockchain: accelerated activity in trade finance

Blockchain and derivatives: Re-imagining the industry

The digital trade chain: The blockchain train is rolling

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