Pricing as a hedging mechanism

Transactional currency risk, it is often said, occurs between the moment an FX-denominated transaction is agreed upon and the moment it is settled in cash.

That’s OK, but what if the transaction was priced well before it was agreed, which is a realistic description of how things really work?

That’s why at Kantox, we developed the concept of pricing risk. pricing risk is the risk that between the moment an FX-driven price is set and the moment a transaction is agreed upon, a shift in the FX rate might impact budgeted profit margins.

Closely related to this is the idea that pricing is itself a hedging mechanism. Why? Because you can remove pricing risk by frequently updating your prices.

And that brings us to the topic of pricing parameters and hedging. 

Dynamic pricing

Let us start with dynamic pricing. There is a growing list of industries where dynamic pricing is becoming the norm: travel, chemical traders, hospitality, railways, entertainment, insurance, online advertisement, retail and even shipping.

This trend reflects the fall in transaction costs made possible by the availability of real-time data and the rise of geolocation services and payment apps.

Meanwhile, algorithms take into account supply and demand conditions, competitor pricing and other variables.

Two things need to be considered when it comes to dynamic pricing:

(a) prices are ‘FX-driven’; that is, an FX rate is systematically part of the pricing formula;

(b) prices are frequently updated, therefore leveraging the full capacity of pricing to act as a hedging mechanism. 

Other pricing models

Despite its growing popularity, dynamic pricing is not the only pricing mechanism out there. We can single out at least two other very significant models: 

1. Steady prices for individual campaigns/periods. Some businesses, like catalogue-based tour operators, keep prices stable for an entire campaign/budget period and set new prices at the start of the following period. Things to consider here:

(a) Prices are also FX-driven, just like in dynamic pricing.

(b) The pricing impact of the ‘cliff’, or a sharp FX rate fluctuation between two campaign/budget periods, is fully passed on to customers at the onset of a new period. Here too, pricing acts as a hedging mechanism, but not to the extent it does in dynamic pricing.

2. Steady prices for a set of campaigns/periods. Some firms need or simply desire to keep prices steady not only for one individual campaign/budget period but for a set of campaign/budget periods linked together. Things to consider:

(a) Prices are not FX-driven: the FX rate plays no role in pricing;

(b) The pricing impact of the ‘cliff’ cannot be passed on to customers at the onset of a new period. Pricing, quite obviously, is not a hedging mechanism in this case.

Putting it all together: the PEG framework: Pricing-Exposure-Goals

The PEG or Pricing – Exposure – Goals framework provides actionable clarity when discussing pricing and currency hedging in the context of cash flow hedging programs:

For firms with frequently updated FX-driven prices, the goal is to protect the dynamic pricing rate in all their transactions. The exposure to hedge is the company’s firm sales/purchase orders. The right program is a micro-hedging program for firm commitments.

For companies that keep steady prices during individual campaign/budget periods, the goal is to protect the campaign/budget rate. The exposure to hedge is the forecasted revenues and expenditures for that particular campaign. The right program is a combination of a static hedging program, conditional orders and a micro-hedging program for firm commitments. 

Finally, for firms that keep steady prices across a set of campaign/budget periods linked together, the goal is to smooth out the hedge rate over time. The exposure to hedge is a rolling forecast for a set of periods linked together. The right program is a layered hedging program. 

Currency Management Automation solutions allow you to reach all your goals, whatever the pricing parameters of your business.

We reveal why this is an essential issue for treasurers, how it’s typically handled, and why automated swap execution can help finance teams play a more strategic role in the business. 

Setting the scene

Treasurers know that it is practically impossible to have a perfect match between the firm’s currency hedging position and the cash settlement of the underlying commercial exposure. That’s especially the case if those hedges were taken long before. This is why swapping is so essential.

Let us briefly see an example. If you have a ‘long’ USD forward position with a given value date and you need, say, 10% of that amount in cash right now, a swap agreement allows you to perform that adjustment.

With the ‘near leg’ of the swap, you buy the required amount of USD in the spot market while simultaneously selling —with the ‘far leg’ of the swap— the same amount of USD at the value date of the forward contract. And that’s how you adjust your firm’s hedging position.

Pain points: a resource-intensive activity

Swapping can be extremely time-consuming and resource-intensive, particularly if many transactions, currencies and liquidity providers are involved. We recently saw how a large European food producer was struggling mightily with manual swap execution, a dreadful situation faced by many, if not most, companies.

Among the most common pain points, we can cite the following three:

• Operational risk. Many tasks are manually executed: retrieving incoming payments, selecting liquidity providers and confirming trades. The entire workflow relies on emails that circulate back and forth with spreadsheets carrying potential data input errors, copy & paste errors, formatting errors, and formula errors.

• Lack of traceability. Lack of proper traceability hinders the process of assessing hedging performance, as swap legs are manually traced back to the corresponding forward contracts.

• Risk of unethical behaviour. Understood as the risk that early mistakes that are not immediately reported may lead to severe losses down the road, it is prevalent throughout.

Traceability and automated swap execution

Traceability is when each element along the journey from FX-denominated entry to position to operation to payment has its own unique reference number. But how can we apply this concept to solve the problem of manual swap execution?

The answer is automated swap execution, a solution that is embedded in Currency Management Automation software. It relies on the perfect end-to-end traceability between the different ‘legs’ of a swap agreement and the original forward contract. Meanwhile, FX gains/losses and swap points are automatically calculated. It’s dead simple!

Swap automation is a powerful tool for the treasury team. At the company level, it opens the way to:

• According to recent surveys, increasing the efficiency of treasury operations is the No. 1 expectation in tech for CFOs.

• Using more currencies in the business to take advantage of the profit-margin enhancing possibilities of ‘embracing currencies’.

• Taking a concrete step toward the ‘digital treasury’ is a concern voiced by many CFOs and treasurers.

At a personal level, in terms of the daily workload of members of the treasury team, automated swap execution means:

• More time to concentrate on high-value-adding tasks such as fine-tuning and improving cash flow forecasts.

• Reduced stress levels.

• Increased productivity at work.

And that’s no small achievement! 

Five important touchpoints

There are at least five crucial, yet sometimes unduly neglected, touchpoints between FX risk management and cash or liquidity management. Let me briefly set the stage first. Then I will discuss their interactions.

(1) Swapping. Adjusting the company’s hedging position to the cash settlement of the underlying commercial exposure requires a lot of swapping.

(2) Collateral. In a world of shifting interest rates, treasurers need solutions that allow them to optimise collateral management.

(3) Working capital management. Solutions to improve working capital and liquidity are rarely mentioned in the context of FX risk management. Yet, they exist!

(4) Netting. Netting allows companies to generate savings in trading costs and in terms of the cash balances needed to satisfy collateral requirements.

(5) Cash flow forecasting. According to a recent survey by HSBC, more than half of treasurers worldwide say that cash flow forecasting is the most important task in treasury.

How and when currency management meets liquidity management

Take the case of a hedging program designed to protect the FX budget rate. It includes stop-loss orders to protect the FX rate used in pricing or a ‘worst-case scenario’ FX rate. It can also include profit-taking orders to lock in more favourable exchange rates.

As long as the stop-loss orders are not hit, hedge execution is postponed. This means that the cash required for collateral requirements can be set aside at a later date. It also means that treasurers have more time to improve their cash flow forecasts.

And it’s not over yet! Hedging incoming firm sales/purchase orders or invoices leads to very precise currency hedging. This means that purchasing managers are in a position to buy confidently in the currency of their suppliers. These, in turn, will be more inclined to grant extended paying terms.

With the perfect end-to-end traceability that comes with automated programs, managers can safely aggregate exposures without fear of losing the benefits of data granularity. This can create more netting opportunities, again reducing the need to set aside cash in terms of collateral.

Finally, swapping can be easily automated.

And voilà!

Feedback effects

That’s how effective FX risk management ends up improving liquidity management. Note that the process feeds on itself. Let me give you an example. Because swap automation releases valuable treasury resources, treasurers can take advantage of the benefits of using more currencies. Automated swap execution, therefore, improves not only the cash management part of the FX workflow but also —indirectly— working capital management.

That’s what I call a win-win situation!