Your Last Call | International Treasury Management Virtual Week | September 27 – October 1

22-09-2021 | Eurofinance | treasuryXL |

It’s free, It’s Virtual…

International Treasury Management is the annual meeting place for 1000s of the World’s most senior treasurers to learn and share experiences in valuable peer to peer discussions. With a reputation for ground-breaking sessions and world-class speakers, our 30th anniversary event will explore the boundaries of the profession, take a glimpse into the future of business, treasury and working life as well as offer the practical case studies on the treasurer’s top agenda items.

Only one treasury event can deliver the comprehensive mix of big picture global insight and granular treasury knowledge you need to make the right choices for the future.


Back to the future, again

Over the past 30 years since EuroFinance’s inaugural conference on International Cash and Treasury Management, much has changed. Treasurers have firmly become business partners, technology experts, risk managers and opportunity spotters. They often lead fundamental change within the company as markets, business models and technology shifts.

What next? This event will delve into how treasury operations can gear up for the future, having learned the lessons from the past. Where, who, what and how will the corporate be in the coming years and what is treasury’s role?

Keynote sessions will offer big-picture insight alongside themed streams including:

  • Payments revisited
  • Risks and Rewards
  • Digital strategies
  • Practical solutions to day-to-day Treasury challenges
  • The power of partnership

What makes International Treasury Management the must-attend event of the year?

  • networking on a global scale – a significant rise in attendees in 2020 boosted the value networking with banks, providers and potential clients… all in one place
  • strategic insights and best practices – get solutions to the challenges you face from treasury and economic experts during keynotes, practical case studies, fireside chats, analytical panels and more
  • future trends – delve into the latest innovations and new technology driving change in treasury, and their practical applications
  • live Q&A with world-class treasurers – enjoy borderless networking and live Q&As with high-profile speakers directly after each session
  • cost and time-efficiency – tune in form anywhere in the world, at the click of a button with no long distance travel or accommodation costs
  • continued learning – catch up on any missed sessions and re-watch your highlights, on demand for up 2 months after the event
  • unite your international teams – as a free event, it offers an opportunity for your whole treasury team to attend. Perfect for encouraging learning and development at all levels

September 27th – October 1st | Virtual

Register Now for Free!

 

 

International Treasury Management Virtual Week | Celebrating 30 years as the world’s leading treasury event

| 19-05-2021 | Eurofinance | treasuryXL |

International Treasury Management is the annual meeting place for 1000s of the World’s most senior treasurers to learn and share experiences in valuable peer to peer discussions. With a reputation for ground-breaking sessions and world-class speakers, our 30th anniversary event will explore the boundaries of the profession, take a glimpse into the future of business, treasury and working life as well as offer the practical case studies on the treasurer’s top agenda items.

Only one treasury event can deliver the comprehensive mix of big picture global insight and granular treasury knowledge you need to make the right choices for the future.


Back to the future, again

Over the past 30 years since EuroFinance’s inaugural conference on International Cash and Treasury Management, much has changed. Treasurers have firmly become business partners, technology experts, risk managers and opportunity spotters. They often lead fundamental change within the company as markets, business models and technology shifts.

What next? This event will delve into how treasury operations can gear up for the future, having learned the lessons from the past. Where, who, what and how will the corporate be in the coming years and what is treasury’s role?

Keynote sessions will offer big-picture insight alongside themed streams including:

  • Payments revisited
  • Risks and Rewards
  • Digital strategies
  • Practical solutions to day-to-day Treasury challenges
  • The power of partnership

What makes International Treasury Management the must-attend event of the year?

  • networking on a global scale – a significant rise in attendees in 2020 boosted the value networking with banks, providers and potential clients… all in one place
  • strategic insights and best practices – get solutions to the challenges you face from treasury and economic experts during keynotes, practical case studies, fireside chats, analytical panels and more
  • future trends – delve into the latest innovations and new technology driving change in treasury, and their practical applications
  • live Q&A with world-class treasurers – enjoy borderless networking and live Q&As with high-profile speakers directly after each session
  • cost and time-efficiency – tune in form anywhere in the world, at the click of a button with no long distance travel or accommodation costs
  • continued learning – catch up on any missed sessions and re-watch your highlights, on demand for up 2 months after the event
  • unite your international teams – as a free event, it offers an opportunity for your whole treasury team to attend. Perfect for encouraging learning and development at all levels

September 27th – October 1st | Virtual

Register Now for Free!

 

 

Global Treasury Americas | Planning the post-pandemic Treasury

| 12-05-2021 | Eurofinance | treasuryXL |

The leading virtual event defining today’s corporate treasury agenda

For the past year, treasurers have sweated the core stuff: securing short-term liquidity and longer-term credit; enhancing risk monitoring and hedging processes; and dealing with the implications of remote working. But in the complex and uncertain transition to a new ‘normal’, finance functions will have to resume the search for growth. Can treasury help identify where growth is most likely to come from and which parts of the business are most threatened by digital disruption? And can they do better – can they help build the business strategies needed to prosper as we emerge into the next phase of the pandemic.

This event will explore the practical steps treasurers can take to make enterprise and treasury digitalization a reality and look at varied case studies of transformation in the treasury. The event will look in-depth at new technologies in action as well as more strategic concepts including the sustainability agenda. We look at how treasury can make a difference. Finally, we look at what it takes to transform treasury wherever you are in your journey in order to increase efficiencies, protect the business and make a difference to the bottom-line.

Global Treasury Americas: Planning the post-pandemic treasury

2 days of actionable insights, plus real world case studies tackling the key issues facing treasurers in the region. Topics include:

  • The Great Bounce-back
  • Practical steps on the path to automated Treasury
  • Why sustainability matters for Treasury
  • Name that threat: What’s next
  • Building a true cash culture
  • Payments evolution – the Treasurer’s view

What makes Global Treasury Americas your must-attend event of the year?

  • Understand the practical steps towards making enterprise and treasury digitalization a reality
  • Gain actionable solutions and best practices from varied real-world case studies
  • Network with an unrivalled audience of 800+ senior treasury professionals across the Americas
  • Benchmark your operations against the regions most forward-thinking treasury teams
  • Explore how to support business growth whilst balancing the traditional role of treasury

June 9-10 | Virtual

Register Now

 

 

8 questions for Treasury Expert Philip who won the award for 2020 Best Fintech Solution

19-04-2021 | Philip Costa Hibberd | treasuryXL

With over 12 years of experience in the financial industry with the last four years in treasury consulting, Philip has recently launched his own consulting activity, Automation Boutique, specialized in (robotic) process automation for Treasury, Risk and Finance.

“I have been coding for fun since I was a kid. This skill has been very useful throughout my career but has become my trademark in Treasury.”

He recently developed the tool that was awarded the “2020 Best Fintech Solution – Adam Smith award” by Treasury Today magazine. He now tries to focus on what he has always enjoyed the most during his career: solving problems at the intersection between ‘numbers’, ‘people’ and ‘technology’.

We are delighted to share the interview with Philip. Let’s dive into his treasury journey where he answers 8 questions…

1. How did your treasury journey start?

As for many of us, it started somewhat by accident. After working in other areas of finance for many years, a few ethical questions started nagging me. Add a sabbatical, some romance, and a few lucky phone calls and I found myself joining the great corporate treasury team at Zanders (a consultancy firm specialized in Treasury, Risk and Finance).

2. What do you like the most about working in Treasury?

I love the diversity of challenges. You are dealing with the financial heart of the company and need to make sure that the right amount of blood reaches every cell. This necessarily means dealing with different kinds of issues, topics and people. This keeps Treasury fun and in constant evolution!

3. What is your Treasury Expertise?

I have been working as a consultant on very different Treasury projects, from interim roles to system implementations. I guess I am what you would call a generalist, but with a knack for using technology and social skills to solve problems. I have been coding for fun since I was a kid. This skill has been very useful throughout my career but has become my trademark in Treasury.

4. What has been your best experience in your treasury career until today?

Going back to the cardiovascular metaphor for Treasury, the best experience was probably when I was called by a client to solve an urgent clot which was at risk of causing severe damage. An apparently simple data migration exercise turned out to be much more complex than anticipated and was at risk of causing severe delays to a multimillion project. The solution involved a robot, a laptop being flown up and down Europe, a wedding and unreliable hotel wi-fi. Surprisingly, instead of being the ingredients for a bad joke, this led to a happy client and to an award-winning solution.

5. What has been your biggest challenge in treasury?

My biggest challenge in Treasury was witnessing the clash of American, Dutch, Indian, Japanese and many more cultures during a global SAP implementation (going live during a pandemic). Holding three nationalities and being exposed to different cultures from an early age didn’t help me as much as I would have hoped. I would encourage anyone working with different cultures to read Erin Meyer’s book “The Culture Map”. It will be helpful.

6. What’s the most important lesson that you’ve learned as a treasurer?

No one is rational and analytical all the time, not even experienced treasury professionals. Good communication is more important than perfect data and models, especially during a crisis. Without it you will lead or be led by emotion and will certainly miss the best course of action. When fear creeps in your own monkey mind, don’t be afraid to have a good conversation with it. Assess how big the actual threat is compared to the shadow being cast by your amygdala.

7. How have you seen the role of Corporate Treasury evolve over the years?

Corporate Treasury has come a long way from its more transactional origins and – as expected – is taking more of an advisory and strategic role within organizations. The boundaries with other specialized professions have faded (risk management and FP&A just to name a few) and I think that this is a good thing. Skilled professionals should be employed to solve interesting problems and come up with great ideas. The best problems and ideas are usually found at the intersection between disciplines and it’s only natural that we tend to all meet there more and more often.

8. What developments do you expect in corporate treasury in the near and further future?

For the near future I expect the focus on the hot topics of the moment to continue: cash visibility, cash flow forecasting, operational efficiency etc.

For the further future, I won’t adventure on guessing exactly what hot topics the next crisis will bring. I will instead share my best guess on the evolution on the corporate treasurer as a person.

My guess is that she or he will be less of a specialist and more of a generalist. The ideal corporate treasurer will be ‘renaissance polymath’ if you will. Our rapidly changing environment makes it more difficult to remain a (useful) specialist for long. Technology also tends to favour the generalist by democratizing specialist’s skills. There will certainly always be room for very specialized knowledge, but the risk of learning too much about too little in a dynamic environment, is that after a while you risk knowing everything about nothing.

 

Philip Costa Hibberd

 

 

 




Does your business need support in Treasury or a Treasury QuickScan?

We have treasurers available, go to Rent a Treasurer for all information.



Only 5 days left until the International Treasury Management Virtual Week 2020

| 16-09-2020 | Eurofinance | treasuryXL |

Don’t miss the Treasury Event of the Year! If you haven’t signed up already, here is a reminder to join this great virtual event with incredible speakers and live sessions.

Virtual Event

Now more than ever, we need to learn and engage with other treasury professionals around the world, so that we can navigate and overcome the unprecedented challenges we are facing.

As the current situation unfolds, the role of the corporate treasurer is evolving and becoming more strategic than ever before. The complexities and function of treasury within the business is changing even more rapidly. The question is: What does the future of treasury look like and how will this affect my team? And where can I turn for world-class advice on building resiliency, supporting the business and addressing future challenges?

Look no further than EuroFinance’s International Treasury Management Virtual Week taking place 21-25 September. It will see world-leading treasurers and economists come together to address these issues, deliver big picture global insights and share the essential granular knowledge you and your team need for the path ahead. In the spotlight will be the latest on cash flow forecasting, supply chain finance, tech, liquidity and FX and payments plus much more.

Speakers and Live Sessions

The line-up of speakers is impressive with the likes of Shell, Alibaba Group, HP Inc., eBay, Finnair, Microsoft, Intel Corporation, Schlumberger, Booking Holdings Inc. and Rio Tinto holding centre stage in one of the 75+ live sessions. But don’t worry if you miss a session, they will be available on-demand for you to watch at a time that suits you.

The custom-built virtual conference platform will bring the experience of a live event to life in a virtual world. It offers plenty of opportunities to network and learn from your global peers, plus a smart calendar to build your schedule.

Free Registration

The great news is, the 2020 event comes without a price tag! It is free for corporate treasurers. So, you can get all the world-class expert knowledge and insights you expect from the leading treasury event without the costs of registration, flights, accommodation or even expenses.

What are you waiting for? Set your treasury team up to thrive not just to survive.

Register for free today!

 

EuroFinance International Treasury Management Virtual Week 21-25 September 2020

| 25-08-2020 | Eurofinance | treasuryXL |

The pandemic sent shockwaves through global financial markets and confronted businesses with extreme scenarios.

Virtual Event

Now more than ever, we need to learn and engage with other treasury professionals around the world, so that we can navigate and overcome the unprecedented challenges we are facing.

As the current situation unfolds, the role of the corporate treasurer is evolving and becoming more strategic than ever before. The complexities and function of treasury within the business is changing even more rapidly. The question is: What does the future of treasury look like and how will this affect my team? And where can I turn for world-class advice on building resiliency, supporting the business and addressing future challenges?

Look no further than EuroFinance’s International Treasury Management Virtual Week taking place 21-25 September. It will see world-leading treasurers and economists come together to address these issues, deliver big picture global insights and share the essential granular knowledge you and your team need for the path ahead. In the spotlight will be the latest on cash flow forecasting, supply chain finance, tech, liquidity and FX and payments plus much more.

Speakers and Live Sessions

The line-up of speakers is impressive with the likes of Shell, Alibaba Group, HP Inc., eBay, Finnair, Microsoft, Intel Corporation, Schlumberger, Booking Holdings Inc. and Rio Tinto holding centre stage in one of the 75+ live sessions. But don’t worry if you miss a session, they will be available on-demand for you to watch at a time that suits you.

The custom-built virtual conference platform will bring the experience of a live event to life in a virtual world. It offers plenty of opportunities to network and learn from your global peers, plus a smart calendar to build your schedule.

Free Registration

The great news is, the 2020 event comes without a price tag! It is free for corporate treasurers. So, you can get all the world-class expert knowledge and insights you expect from the leading treasury event without the costs of registration, flights, accommodation or even expenses.

What are you waiting for? Set your treasury team up to thrive not just to survive.

Register for free today!

 

Meet our Experts – Arnaud Béasse

28-07-2020 | Arnaud Béasse | treasuryXL

Welcome to the 10th and last (for now) interview of the ‘Meet the Expert’ series. This time we interviewed our brand new Expert Arnaud Béasse. Arnaud is founder of the advisory firm Arts+Brands and an expert in Debt Management. He started his career as Regional Financial Controller, cumulating the responsibility for IT.

Arnaud has more than 17 years experience in Banks focusing successively on Structured Asset Finance, Corporate Banking, DCM and in Multinational Corporates for their Energy and Metals trading and Project Finance. He created Arts+Brands to expand his entrepreneurial spirit by advising small ventures and start-ups (Fintech, Biotech, IT) for their Fund Raising and Finance strategy and also by getting involved in the daily operations.

Arnaud is fluent in English, German and French and is used to work in international, multi-cultural and virtual teams environments.

We asked him 11 questions, let’s go!

How did your treasury journey start?

During my first assignment as a regional financial controller, I have been immediately confronted to a complex consolidation of cash streams from different emerging countries with different currencies and regulations. Finding secure and systematic solutions has been challenging but also interesting and fun. This was the beginning of my treasury discovery, from which I moved then to asset finance, project finance, trade and export finance and later to the complete « corporates and markets » solutions offered by a large European bank.

What do you like about working in Treasury?

I find the central role played by treasury in supporting a business very motivating: it manages all financial resources a business needs to generate returns. Perfect understanding and anticipation of the needs (planning) and an accurate analysis of the resources available (controlling) are therefore essential. I also like the necessity of combining short term priorities like cash management and long term planning like investments.

What is your Treasury Expertise?

Capitalising on my long banking and large corporates experience, I have acquired a strong knowledge of all kind of debt solutions associated with credit, regulatory, compliance competencies. I have specialised in Debt Management, Fund Raising, Asset Finance, Leasing, Cash Flow Management, Trade and Export Finance and Project Finance. I am currently focusing on Sustainable Finance to support firms aligning their finance resources with their commitments towards the environment.

What’s the most important factor in debt management?

The starting point of debt management is a careful analysis and control of the cash flows. Borrowings need to align with the business cycle of the company and eventually its equity profile. Once the needs of each business line and the corresponding cash flow generation are consolidated, the adequate debt structure can be designed with a mix of junior to senior, short term to long term solutions and a calibrated interest rates structure.

What has been your best experience in your debt management career until today?

I remember a dramatic situation occurring during a local currency crisis in an emerging country, where we had arranged a large equipment finance. The debt repayment plan did not anymore match with the borrower’s cash flow generation and we were heading straight to a default situation. After long and numerous discussions, we managed to get transferred a large position on natural resources the company was owning but not operating and structured it in a way that the majority of risks were covered, the credit committees and respective boards were satisfied and ultimately the borrower managed to earn additional profit. I admit there is a part of luck in this experience but getting from this desperate situation to a point where all parties were so happy has been my most fulfilling experience so far!

What has been your biggest challenge in your career?

I consider the toughest challenges in a company are almost always linked to human resources management and termination of assignments. But if we remain within the treasury topic, my biggest challenge so far has been to accept a board decision not to conclude an M&A transaction, whereby all indicators (profit, risk, market position, further opportunities) were very favourable for the group and I had worked for more than one year on the case. Some months later, upon publication of the yearly results, it became clear why the project was rejected!

What is the most important lesson that you have learned as a treasurer?

Along the various experiences I had with treasury, the most important lesson might be to always seek the most simple and straight forward option. There are many ways of hedging a currency position, improving the average interest rate of a pool of debt facilities, leverage the value of an asset, optimise the return of positive cash position. But the risk and time associated to it can rapidly be disproportionate to the purpose and the size of the original transaction. Treasury shall normally create value, not necessarily profit!

How have you seen the role of Corporate Treasury evolve over the years?

Obviously, the role of Corporate Treasurer has become more and more complex. Treasury needs to deal with an increasing availability of alternative financial products, intensifying risk management requirements, regulatory and compliance constraints. But at the same time, the emergence of digital treasury platforms and integrated cash management systems are making the steering of treasury much easier and more accurate.

The coronavirus is undoubtedly an unprecedented crisis. In general, can you elaborate on the impact this virus has on treasury from your perspective?

Treasury is between a rock and a hard place: as a consequence of the crisis, sales are dropping and cash flows are missing but the financial obligations (debt, salaries, rents, supply, …) remain and the access (if not the availability) of financial resources become difficult. For treasurers who had a prudent cash flow management with enough resources to bridge the gap, it has been a confirmation for their risk management strategy. For others with more lean structure, it is, in the best case, a very stressing moment trying to find last minute and costly (not only in terms of interest rates) funding solutions. Some businesses, which have bet on a very tight business model, will probably be restructured. The crisis will certainly lead corporates to adopt more careful models with sufficient reserves and flexible organisations but also postponed or reduced investments.

What developments do you expect in corporate treasury in the near and further future?

The main trend is definitively the further digitisation of the treasury functions, offering more reliable, more secure and faster execution of the transactions: payments, cash management, trading, trade and export instruments, guarantees, etc. As the execution of transactions will be more and more automated and integrated in the supply chain systems, treasurers will shift their focus on analysing and planning for the financial resources in order to formulate strategies.

Another interesting trend for the treasurer is the further development of the non-banking debt market. This shall broaden the borrowers’ horizon, balancing again the bargaining power in favour of the corporates and generating even more tailor-made/OTC debt solutions.

What is your best advice for businesses without a Treasurer?

Running a business without a treasurer can only be considered for small businesses. For standard operations, managing the daily needs with modern digital tools will always become easier, even if substantial support shall be required during the implementation of a system. Once the system is running, the daily treasury tasks can be integrated in the accounting and finance agenda.

However, as soon as operations get more complex (investment, take-over, international development, restructuring…), the support of a specialist remains essential, be it for a limited period of time like part-time or ad interim…

 

 

Arnaud Béasse

 

 

 

 

Does your business need support in Treasury or a Treasury QuickScan?

We have treasurers available, go to Rent a Treasurer for all information.



Tips voor het verkrijgen van financiering

| 4-2-2019 | ILFA Group | treasuryXL |

Nederlandse banken maken een forse terugtrekkende beweging en dit leidt bij ondernemers tot onrust. Geluiden over uitsluitend uitzettingen aan bestaande relaties en het niet opengaan van de bankdeuren in 2019 dragen bij aan het onrustige klimaat. Ook de steeds kritischere houding van banken en ‘cherrypicking’ van zaken die wel gedaan worden zijn een doorn in het oog van mkb-ondernemers. Dit alles heeft uitwerking op de transacties en hun prijs. Immers, als de financieringsvoorwaarden worden aangescherpt en marges omhoog gaan, zal dit direct invloed hebben op de kostprijs van de bedrijfsvoering.

Ik ben dan ook van mening dat de Nederlandse banken in de komende jaren tegen steeds lagere leverages zullen gaan financieren. Denk aan maximaal 50% loan-to-value tegen looptijden van hooguit 5 tot 7 jaar. Door de komst van Basel 4-kapitaaleisen zal de terughoudendheid van banken alleen maar toenemen en zal er een gap ontstaan van ongeveer 2,5 tot 3 miljard euro per jaar. Dit zal ingevuld moeten worden door nieuwe financieringskanalen.

Wanneer u een financiering aanvraagt, is het belangrijk een aantal praktische tips te volgen:

1. Mkb-financiering is maatwerk
Ten opzichte van een aantal jaar geleden is het aantal (bancaire) financieringen vandaag de dag enorm uitgebreid. Voor de crisis bepaalden vooral banken de markt, maar tegenwoordig is er een groot alternatief aanbod van financieringsproducten. Wanneer er in een onderneming een investeringsbehoefte is, is het heel belangrijk in een vroeg stadium vast te stellen wat deze behoefte precies is, hoeveel geld benodigd is en bij welke partijen dat het best ondergebracht kan worden. Laat u vooral bijstaan door een (onafhankelijke) adviseur met kennis van het financieringslandschap.

2. Het belang van de businesscase
Om precies te weten waar u aan toe bent en om niet voor verassingen te komen staan bij het aanvragen van een financiering is het belangrijk dat door grondige analyse alle financiële aspecten van de financieringsaanvraag inclusief onderbouwing in kaart gebracht worden. Door een credit rating toe te voegen, worden alle relevante financiële risico’s van de onderneming in kaart gebracht. Ook laat de rating zien hoe deze risico’s beïnvloed worden door de investering. Een potentiële financier kan hierdoor een goede inschatting maken van de kansen en risico’s van een investering. Wat niet vergeten moet worden is een haalbaarheidscheck waarbij gekeken wordt naar de haalbaarheid en kans van slagen van de financieringsaanvraag. Hierbij wordt onder meer
gekeken naar de hoogte van de investering in relatie tot de mogelijkheden om de financieringslasten te dragen.

3. Kopen of leasen?
Het is belangrijk vast te stellen of eigendom van machines, auto’s, meubels en andere soortgelijke zaken nodig is. Het kan enorm schelen op de investering en kapitaalvernietiging kan voorkomen worden wanneer, waar mogelijk, gekozen wordt voor lease. Ga na of objecten daadwerkelijk in bezit moeten zijn of dat het puur om gebruik gaat. Mocht gebruik voldoende zijn, is een leaseconstructie of servicecontract een goede optie.

4. Een betrouwbare financieringsaanvraag
De financieringsaanvraag bevat alle relevante cijfers en brengt de terugverdientijd, KPI’s en doorlooptijden helder in kaart. Er staan veel statische gegevens in zo’n aanvraag, maar ook de kwaliteit van de onderneming, de branche, de organisatie van de bedrijfsprocessen en de organisatie van het personeel. Deze gegevens samen zorgen voor de perfecte financieringsaanvraag die nodig is om het vertrouwen van financiers te krijgen. Uiteindelijk is vertrouwen de basis voor een aangeboden lening of financiering.

 

 

 

Arnoud Doornbos

Associate Partner

 

Are public debts sustainable?

| 19-02-2018 | treasuryXL |

A few weeks ago the EU Commission released a report on debt sustainability within the EU. It provides an overview of the challenges faced by member countries over the short, medium and long term to meet the original convergence criteria – specifically, that existing Government debt is less than 60% of GDP. As with most Government related documents it is long – over 250 pages. A lot of attention is drawn to the Debt Sustainability Monitor (DSM) and the challenges faced to achieve the abovementioned criteria by 2032.

Any forecast is open to different interpretations, especially one that looks 15 years into the future. At the end of 2017, 15 of the 28 countries within the EU (in other words more than 50%) have Government debt that exceeded 60% of GDP. The average ratio for all 28 countries – on the basis of the sum of all Government debt and all GDP – is 83%. Let us focus on those 15 countries who, currently, do not meet the criteria. The figures for this article have been taken from the following website – debtclocks.eu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This shows the countries – ranked by the current Debt to GDP ratios – from high to low. 3 countries have been highlighted in yellow as their figures have been originally shown in their own currencies. For the sake of comparison these figures have been converted into EUR.

Assumptions

  • The current debt will remain constant for the next 15 years. Debt that falls due for redemption is rolled over – no new additional debt is assumed.
  • The criteria in 2032 is that the debt is 60% of the GDP at the end of 2032
  • The current debt is assumed to be 60% of the GDP at the end of 2032
  • Projected GDP at the end of 2032 is adjusted so that it is a factor of 1.67 larger than the debt
  • A constant annual growth rate is determined whereby the existing GDP at the end of 2017 will constantly grow to equal the expected GDP at the end of 2032.

Results

The top 7 countries have debt ratios around 100% or higher of GDP at the end of 2017. The constant annual growth rates that they would have to achieve under the scenario shown above are all greater than 3% per annum.

Annual growth rate since 1996 for the EU have averaged 1.7% – before the financial crisis there was an annual growth of 2.5%. For the last 10 years since the crisis, the average annual growth rate within the whole EU is just 0.8%. Even in 2017, the growth was just 2.5% – back at the same level as before the crisis. The data for this part came from tradingeconomics.com

It would be appear to be presumptuous to expect future annual GDP growth to consistently exceed the current long term trend. Of course this is a scenario relying on only 1 factor – namely growth in GDP to meet the 60% criteria – whilst ignoring any other possible factors.

Conclusion

As constant growth, as shown above is, not realistic, then other factors will have to come into play if the long term scenario relating to debt criteria is to be achieved. If not through growth, then either through increases in Government receipts (more taxes or selling of national assets) or decreases in Government expenditure (less subsidies, pensions, smaller investments).

Or……………..through fiscal union leading to transfers from the “richer” countries.
Next we will look at the history of fiscal transfer within the EU.

If you want more information please feel free to contact us via email  [email protected]

 

Yield Curves (term structure of interest rates) – filling in the blanks part II

| 03-06-2016 | Lionel Pavey |

Most treasurers do not have access to a dedicated financial data vendor (Bloomberg, Reuters) but are regularly faced with having to discover prices related to yield curves. There are websites that can provide us with relevant data, but these are normally a snapshot and not comprehensive – the data series is incomplete. It is therefore up to the treasurer to complete the series by filling in the blanks. In my previous article I went over the first approach. Today I’ll talk about the second approach.

A second approach would be to apply a weighting to the known periods of the par curve and to average the difference out over the missing periods.

grafiek1_part2

Schermafbeelding 2016-06-02 om 13.49.46

This leads to 1 year constant maturity rates that are almost equal in value for all the periods between 2 known periods. Whilst these forward rates are also not correct they at least supply us with a visual indicator as to the general shape of the forward yield curve – the 1 year constant maturity rates

reach their zenith between years 12 and 14; after that point they then start to decrease.

Futhermore, taking into consideration the yield curve as shown in the graph, we can make the following conclusions about the 1 year curve:-

  • 11 year rate must be higher than the linear interpolated rate but lower than the weighted interpolated rate
  • 13 year rate must be higher than the weighted interpolated rate
  • 15 year rate must be lower than the linear interpolated rate and lower than the weighted interpolated rate
  • 16 year rate must be higher than the linear interpolated rate and higher than the weighted interpolated rate
  • 20 year rate must be lower than the linear interpolated rate and lower than the weighted interpolated rate
  • The implied forward 1 year constant maturity curve must be smooth and monotonic.

On the basis of these restraints a par curve can be built that leads to the following forward curve.

grafiek2_part2Schermafbeelding 2016-06-02 om 13.50.01

The rates for the missing periods have been calculated manually whilst adhering to the conditions mentioned before– there are formulae which would allow rates to be discovered (Cubic spline, Nelson Siegel etc.) – but these rely on random variables and I have yet to see anyone quote and trade prices based solely on a mathematical formulae.

Visually, the 1 year curve meets all the criteria for the construction of a yield curve, together with the underlying par and zero yield curves.

grafiek3_part2

 

To ascertain that the rates are correct, discount all the cash flows of the par yield for the given maturity – they should equal 100.

Here is an overview of all the implied 1 year rates using the different methods to construct the yield curve.

Conclusion:

For a quick calculation a straight line interpolation is acceptable with the warning that with a normal positive yield curve the real prices will be higher than the prices calculated by straight line interpolation. For a negative yield curve this would be reversed – real prices lower than interpolated prices.

The average difference between the par yield prices of the adjusted smooth yield and the straight interpolation yield are only 2.5 basis points. However, this difference is magnified when looking at a 1 year forward yield curve where the average difference is 22.5 basis points per period with a maximum of 53.5 basis points.

Next – Zero Coupon Yields and implied Forward Yields

Would you like to read part one of this article?
– Yield Curves (term structure of interest rates) – filling in the blanks

 

Lionel Pavey

 

 

Lionel Pavey

Treasurer