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Italian general elections – the end of la dolce vita?
| 05-03-2018 | treasuryXL |
The main issues appear to be the economy and immigration. The arrival of more than half a million immigrants since 2013 has upset many Italians and led to politicians increasing their rhetoric on the subject. Mr. Berlusconi has concluded that immigration is a social time bomb and has advocated a policy of mass deportation. His comments are shared by many other political parties – though not all. Electoral manifestos have included such populist tracts as increasing the minimum wage and tax allowances, reduction in income and corporate tax, increase spending on public welfare and, ambitiously and without detail, a reduction in sovereign debt by 40 percentage points in relation to GDP within the next 10 years.
Italian economy
Italy has seen a faltering economy over the last 10 years. Their annual GDP growth rate has rarely exceeded 2% per year in that time. Industrial output is still 5% lower than before the crisis. This is in stark contrast to their peers in Europe who have mainly all recovered and now have industrial output higher than before the crisis. Reforms have seen more than 1 million jobs created since 2014, but more than 60% of these are part-time jobs. Unemployment has fallen but the rate of unemployment is still over 11%. One third of Italians aged between 25 and 29 remain unemployed.
Sovereign debt has increased over the last 10 years. Outstanding debt now exceeds EU 2.2 trillion and the ratio of debt to GDP is over 130%. The banking sector is also affected. More than 15% of all loans to businesses and consumers are now recognised as non-performing loans. Additionally, at the end of 2017, Italian outstanding debt arising from Target2 balances was approaching EUR 440 billion.
So, Italy has the 2nd largest debt to GDP ratio in the EU, largest ratio of bad debts at commercial banks and the largest outstanding negative balance at Target2. The only sensible way to prevent the levels of debt from becoming unsustainable would be for the Italian economy to grow faster that their historical average – a well-meaning definition, but one that looks very remote in the present economic and political climate.
Italian politicians have increased their anti-EU rhetoric recently, stating that the current situation cannot continue – both economically and in relation to the number of immigrants. How they think the EU will change at a time that they are facing more internal pressure from dissatisfied member states is a mystery.
First results should arrive around lunchtime on Monday 5th March 2018 – only then will we know what the future holds for Italy, the EU and the Euro.
The image of Italy, for some, is of La Dolce Vita as seen in the famous film of 1960 by Federico Fellini. The vision of Anita Ekberg in the Trevi fountain – once seen, never forgotten.
But the moral of the story was the unsuccessful pursuit of love and happiness.
Laatste trends in financiering: oog voor duurzaamheid
| 02-03-2018 | Bianca van Zeventer |
Duurzaam ondernemen wordt steeds belangrijker voor de toegang tot financiering en financieringsvoorwaarden. Al langer wordt door overheid, investeerders en banken kritisch gekeken naar duurzaamheid. Waar voorheen de overheid en gemeentes het initiatief namen, is de financiële sector nu ook een actieve kracht in het stimuleren van duurzaamheid, door middel van maatwerk financieringsvoorwaarden.
Voor financiering van duurzame projecten, zijn door de gemeentes de afgelopen jaren fondsen opgericht, die leningen verstrekken tegen aantrekkelijke voorwaarden.
De Regeling Groenprojecten van de overheid is sinds 2016 van kracht. Deze regeling biedt belastingvoordeel voor groene spaarders en beleggers en daarnaast de mogelijkheid voor erkende banken om via een ‘groen’ fonds geld uit te lenen aan duurzame projecten met een rentekorting. Het zwaartepunt ligt hier vooral op stimulering van energie besparende projecten, duurzaam bouwen en duurzame transportmiddelen.
Naast de overheid, richt nu ook de financiële sector zich, meer dan ooit, op het stimuleren van duurzaamheid.
Duurzaamheiddoelstellingen in financiering laten daarbij een duidelijke verbreding zien. Niet alleen energiebesparing, duurzame energie en CO2 uitstoot krijgen nu de aandacht, maar ook andere – veelal sociaal economische – doelstellingen. Bij de recente financieringen van Philips en Barry Callebaut zijn bijvoorbeeld de kredietvoorwaarden gekoppeld aan een beoordeling door Sustainalytics, die veel breder kijkt naar duurzaamheid. Dit in lijn met de doelstellingen van de Verenigde Naties. De VN heeft in totaal 17 SDG’s (Sustainable Development Goals ofwel Duurzame Ontwikkelingsdoelstellingen) opgesteld ter bestrijding van armoede, ongelijkheid en klimaatverandering.
De aandacht voor duurzaamheid in financiering werkt twee kanten op.
Enerzijds zal financiering voor niet-duurzame projecten en ondernemingen beperkt worden. Banken en investeerders hebben bijvoorbeeld al aangegeven de financiering aan fossiele energie projecten te willen beperken en dat energielabels op onroerend goed een doorslaggevende rol zullen gaan spelen in de toekomst.
Anderzijds wordt duurzaamheid gestimuleerd, door het opnemen van duurzaamheidscriteria in maatwerk leningsovereenkomsten. Wanneer bedrijven aan deze duurzaamheidscriteria voldoen, betalen zij een lagere rente.
Oog voor duurzaamheid loont. Het vergroot de financieringsmogelijkheden en geeft toegang tot aantrekkelijke financieringsvoorwaarden. Bedrijfsgrootte is van ondergeschikt belang. Groenleningen kunnen bijvoorbeeld al worden afgesloten vanaf circa €10.000.
Uw Flextreasurer kan helpen bij het vinden van de juiste, en meest aantrekkelijke financieringsvorm.
Treasury and Finance Specialist / Owner of CuCoFin
Regulating cryptocurrencies: walking the tightrope
| 01-03-2018 | Carlo de Meijer |
Regulators across the world are looking at whether — and how — to regulate cryptocurrencies. As a reaction last week cryptocurrencies tumbled with the Bitcoin falling even below $6,000 after having reached a high of $20,000 on 17 December for fear of more regulation. The cryptomarket value also fell deeply from $674 billion in December to $315 billion. Also the hack of the Japanese crypto exchange Coincheck, where some hundreds of millions of dollars disappeared caused enough unrest. Up till now there is however no univocal direction in how cryptocurrencies are looked at and how to treat them.
Why intervene in the cryptocurrency market?
It is no surprise that governments and regulators are becoming more vocal and putting together tasks forces on how to deal with it. There are compelling reasons why cryptocurrencies should be under more scrutiny by regulators and supervisors. The threat of price volatility, speculative trading and hack attacks all call for stricter regulation. Main goal of regulators is to create long-term stability afforded by common policies and elimination of fraudulent actions and practices.
To protect the consumer
Firstly, there is the need of tighter oversight of crypto exchanges and trading platforms from the viewpoint of investor protection. These markets are however not transparent for private investors. There are clear risks for private investors associated to price volatility, operational and security failures at crypto exchanges, market manipulation and liability gaps. Many experts worry that the trade in Bitcoin futures, crypto funds and other highly speculative financial products will inflate a speculative bubble, while running the risk of losing all their money. In that case there is – unlike at normal currencies such as euro, dollar and yen – no public institution like governments or central banks behind it.
Fear of criminal activities
According to many, aside from the instability of cryptocurrency prices, these cryptocurrencies must have greater regulatory oversight in order to prevent illegal activity and illegitimate use. Aside from the instability of cryptocurrency prices, regulators are worrying about criminals who are increasingly using cryptocurrencies for activities (trading away from official channels) like fraud and manipulation, tax evasion, hacking, money laundering and funding for terrorist activities.
Systemic risk
There is also the systemic risk that is inherent to the crypto-economy. If it continues to grow uncontrolled there is the danger of destabilising the financial system worldwide. The overheating of the cryptocurrency market with speculative money and the wild price fluctuations have raised alarms and calls for tightening of regulations in many countries from the viewpoint of financial system stability. If the price bubble bursts, it can quickly endanger individual institutions and parts of the financial markets. If big losses would occur this could hurt the reputation of the whole market.
Regulators are stepping in
The advent and subsequent boom of cryptocurrencies on a global scale as well as the heavy fluctuations have left many governments scrambling to find ways to deal with this new phenomenon. Regulators and other official authorities worldwide are stepping in to define how they would oversee this cryptocurrency environment (what had been to date a legally “murky” environment). Governments around the world are now looking at how to regulate Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
What could they actually do: the options
There are various options to deal with cryptocurrencies, ranging from a complete ban to the other extreme of creating an own state digital currency. The options are just warn and further do nothing, complete ban, categorise as financial asset, regulate the exchanges or create a state owned crypto currency.
Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn
Carlo de Meijer
Economist and researcher