Tag Archive for: risk

Managing treasury risk: Liquidity Risk (VI)

|13-3-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

There are lots of discussions concerning risk, but let us start by trying to define what we mean by risk. In today’s article I will focus on liquidity risk. Many companies have very significant credit needs and this needs to be formally addressed with a credit analysis procedure in place. In my former articles I dealt with risk management, interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk, commodity risk and credit risk. See the complete list at the end of today’s article.

Liquidity risk comes in 2 distinct forms – market liquidity risk and funding liquidity risk.

Market Liquidity Risk

This relates to assets and potential illiquidity in the market and, as such, can be considered a market risk. In a normal functioning market it is always possible for market participants (buyers, sellers, market makers and speculators) to find each other and negotiate a price for their transactions. Assuming that the transaction is of a normal market size, there should be no dramatic change to the price of the asset after the transaction.

At the time of a crisis, participants could be absent from the market, making it difficult – if not impossible – to trade an asset. Sellers are left frustrated as there are no opportunities to sell the asset they are holding and vice versa for buyers. This can occur due to a financial crisis, changes in legislature, scarcity of an asset or someone attempting to corner the market. An asset generally will have a value, but if there are no buyers in the market that value can not be realised.

Liquidity risk is not the same as falling prices – after all prices are free to rise or fall. If an asset was priced at zero then it means that the market considers its value to be nothing. This is different from trying to sell an asset but not being able to find a buyer.

Markets for Foreign Exchange, Stocks, Shares, Bonds and many Futures and other derivatives are generally highly liquid. Off balance sheet products related to physical settlement can be less liquid as there is a need to actually provide physical settlement. Bespoke products like CDO’s can be considered illiquid as their size is normally small (relatively speaking) and not freely tradeable. Also the complexity needed to value the product affects its liquidity.

Housing is an asset class with very low liquidity – sometimes a property could be sold as soon as it hits the market. At other times the same property could be available for sale for many years and the price reduced regularly, without attracting a firm buyer.
The easiest and quickest way to see if there is a heightened market liquidity risk is via the bid – offer spread. If this is suddenly seen widening, this would imply that there appears to be more risk. In a normal, liquid market, the spreads are fairly constant and small, allowing participants to easily step in and transact. A widening of spreads occurs in a normal market when government data is published – nonfarm payrolls, balance of payment, etc. Within a short time the market will return to a normal spread as the information is properly digested and the market makers return. However, if the spreads widen without a publication event taking place, it is reasonable to assume that the risk has increased.
Additionally, risk could grow if reserve requirements were increased. In markets such as Futures, it is necessary to pay margin to the exchange. If these margin payments were increased, this would lead to transactions being more expensive and so lead to less liquidity in the market.

Market makers can also observe the market depth. This is shown by the quantity available for transacting at a particular price in their order books. When a market is perceived as being deep, it means there are many orders and, therefore, a large number of orders would be needed to move the market price significantly. The deeper the market, the more liquid the market.

Funding Liquidity Risk

This relates to the risk of not being able to settle debts when they are due. Treasury specialists in a corporate environment are acutely concerned with funding risk. Every month wages must be paid, together with tax and social premiums (pensions, insurance etc.) Additionally, it would be advantageous to pay trade creditors on time. Future liabilities also have to be funded after they have been recognized. This could mean arranging external financing.

If there is a liquidity crisis in the market, it becomes difficult and expensive to arrange to borrow the necessary funds. The price may be so high that the intended profit provided by selling the goods, is negated by the increased cost of funding. A reduction in the credit rating of a company can also lead to increased costs and a reluctance to lend.
If a company is known to have problems making payments, then the liquidity risk is specific to the company – the rest of the market will function normally.

Funding risk can also occur if creditors fail to pay you, or if an unforeseen event has occurred that leads to an outflow of cash from the company.
A company can initially perform a quick spot check to ascertain its current ratio. This shows if a company can meet its current liabilities with its current assets. A ratio of less than 1 would imply that the company can not meet all its obligations at the same time. However, this could also be because there is no short term finance arranged at that moment.
It is possible to arrange a line of credit with a financial provider. He defines a maximum loan (line of credit) that can be extended which the company may utilize. While it is normal to pay a standing charge for the balance of the line that is not being used, this can be offset by the knowledge that it is possible to drawdown against the line when needed (in normal circumstances). There is greater flexibility with a line of credit than with a traditional bank loan.

Other methods include –

i)                    Sell assets like stock that are slow moving and tying down cash

ii)                   Analyse all overheads – office equipment, expense claims

iii)                 Increase efficiency in the debtors’ administration. Be proactive

iv)                 Renegotiate with suppliers – better that you talk to them before it is too late

v)                  Design contingency plans

vi)                 Subject your business to stress testing

vii)               Apply the techniques of ALM (asset and liability management)

 

Some very well known companies have fallen to liquidity problems – Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Northern Rock, ABN Amro, AIG, etc. While the risks were prevalent before the crises, the main liquidity problems occurred when it was determined that there was no more time allowed for the situation to remain.
Time is the soul of business.

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist 

 

 

 

More articles of this series:

Managing treasury risk: Risk management

Managing treasury risk: Interest rate risk 

Managing treasury risk: Foreign exchange risk

Managing treasury risk: Commodity Risk

Managing treasury risk: Credit Risk

Blockchain and derivatives: Re-imagining the industry

| 10-3-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

Since the first meetings organised by the Technology Advisory Committee of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on January 26 and February 23, 2016, on “Blockchain and the Potential Application of Distributed Ledger Technology to the Derivatives Market”, we have seen a lot of activity in this area.

The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) last month – so a year later – launched its plans to develop a blockchain-based post-trade framework for derivatives processing with tech firms R3, IBM and Axoni starting in January. The US-based clearing institute aims to replace the technology underpinning its Trade Information Warehouse database with a distributed ledger. The announcement by DTCC of its plan to transition its Trade Information Warehouse (TIW), into a blockchain platform  is described as a “watershed moment” for the industry in deploying distributed ledger technology (DLT) in production at this scale and a “reimagining” of credit derivatives processing.

DTCC and TIW

But for an idea of the scale of this operation, first something about DTCC and TIW. The Depository and Clearing Corporation focuses on post-trade financial services, providing clearing and settlement services to the financial markets. It provides central custody of securities and ways for buyers and sellers to make their exchanges in a safe and efficient way.
The Trade Information Warehouse (TIW) , a central part of its financial infrastructure, and a  a major component in the credit derivatives market, currently automates recordkeeping and other workflow functions, such as lifecycle events and payment management for more than $11 trillion of cleared and bilateral credit derivatives annually, among 2,500 buy-side firms located in more than 70 countries. This is roughly 98% of all transactions in that asset class.

DTCC involvement with blockchain

DTCC has been in the forefront of early-stage experimentation, notwithstanding this technology could disrupt this industry and might make obsolete or reduce the role of a number of clearing and other business parties in the post trade market infrastructure. Already end 2015 DTCC expressed its interest in blockchain technology and became a founding member of the Hyperledger Project, an open-source blockchain development project managed by The Linux Foundation and aimed at driving the adoption and standardization of distributed ledger technology in the financial services sector. Last year DTCC also invested in and partnered with Digital Asset Holdings (DAH).

The decision to go ahead with a blockchain-powered “revamp” of the DTCC’s Trade Information Warehouse follows a successful trial of this technology by the company last year. In April 2016, DTCC announced the successful completion of a proof of concept of blockchain technology and smart contracts to manage post-trade lifecycle events for standard North American single-name credit default swaps (CDS) in partnership with Axoni, Markit, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citi, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan.

Soon after their partnership, DTCC and DAH started a collaboration to develop and test blockchain-based solutions for the $2.6 trillion US repurchase agreement (repo) market. DTCC and DAH said “they wanted to streamline U.S. Treasury, Agency and Agency Mortgage-Backed repo transactions and thereby lower costs and risks”.

The DTCC TIW blockchain project

In their plans the DTCC’s Trade Information Warehouse is to be “re-platformed” through a distributed ledger framework based on blockchain technology to drive further improvements in derivatives post-trade lifecycle events. The project has been developed with input and guidance from a number of market participants including Barclays, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, UBS and Wells Fargo, and infrastructure providers IHS Markit and Intercontinental Exchange. These parties helped develop the technology by providing workflow guidance. The final goal of the project is to develop a permissioned distributed ledger network for derivatives, governed by DTCC, with peer nodes at participating firms.

  • Cooperative effort

The whole project is a cooperative effort of a number of partners. By mid-2016, the DTCC submitted a request for proposal (RFP) for interested parties to “re-platform” the warehouse and cut back on reconciliation costs. DTCC has selected a series of firms including IBM, startup Axoni and bank-backed R3CEV to help integrate distributed ledger technology into its first large-scale, real-world application.

Under the DTCC agreement, IBM is the primary contract holder for the DTCC implementation and will lead the initiative, provide program management, contribute DLT expertise and integration services as well serving as the solution-as-a-service (SaaS) provider. Axoni is to provide distributed ledger infrastructure and smart contract applications, while the blockchain bank-backed  consortium R3CEV  is acting as a “solution advisor” from both a technological perspective and from a banking workflow perspective. R3 is thereby charged with “really helping validate that the architecture is sound, but also making sure that the feedback from this big R3 global network is heard”.

“The combined expertise of IBM and our partners enables us to provide DTCC with a resilient, open and innovative new technology platform to support this groundbreaking opportunity.”  Bridget van Kralingen, SVP IBM Industry Platforms.

  • Phased approach

Development on the technology started in January and is expected to go live in early 2018. Over the course of 2017, the partners will work collaboratively to “re-platform” the existing Trade Information Warehouse (TIW) to a permissioned distributed ledger network custom-built for cleared and bilateral credit derivatives – governed by industry-owned DTCC with peer nodes at participating firms.

“It enables a distributed network to be built on this where, ultimately, participants could have nodes in-house,” Schvey, Axoni.

The distributed ledger technology being used for the DTCC TIW project is the AxCore protocol, created by New York-based Axoni. Deployment of the AxCore protocol will be done in phases, and even after it goes live next year, may only be adopted slowly. When the AxCore protocol goes live in early 2018, Axoni intends to submit the software to Hyperledger Project.

Rollout of the new blockchain-powered platform won’t be immediate. Initially, the distributed ledger will run in parallel with the existing settlement infrastructure. The latter can take as long as a week to close compared to the nearly instant settlement times expected from the blockchain solution. Upon launch, the DTCC will run a node that updates the TIW ledger, and other participants will also be able to run a node to support the network or to just get a feed of the information. “Not all of our clients will be moving into the world of distributed ledger at the same pace”. Large participating firms are expected to run their own individual “peer nodes” on the private ledger, with smaller DTCC clients being given the option to tap into DTCC’s own node.

By the time the Axoni technology is fully implemented, the entire life-cycle of a credit derivative will be captured as a smart contract or a “suite of smart contracts”.

Main goals ….

The new-to-create blockchain-powered platform is intended to enable DTCC and its clients to further streamline, automate and reduce the cost of derivatives processing across the industry by removing the need for “disjointed, redundant processing capabilities and the associated reconciliation costs”.

The present processes are arduous with current paper contracts in the form of computer documents still being issued. Blockchain and smart contract technology that will allow buyers, sellers and central clearing houses of derivative trades to share information, such as KYC (Know Your Customer), in real time across various distributed ledger platforms, may unleash great efficiencies. At scale, peer-to-peer networks that secure digital assets would allow parties to identify, transact, and settle with each other in expedited workflows.

  • Streamline derivatives processing
    “Distributed ledger technology is a natural fit for derivatives processing. By recording and automatically managing shared records of financial agreements in the cloud without error, it can minimize the steps required for post-trade processing and free up middle- and back-office staff from the onerous task of reconciliation.” Rutter R3CEV
  • Improvement to settlement times
    With regard to the settlement of derivative transactions, presently the system entails a three to five day process involving many third parties. This represents a significant opportunity cost that parties can recapture with a blockchain-based system that enables even real-time settlement.
    “In a future where they move their infrastructure from what I imagine is a complex environment of interconnected software with a ton of proprietary adapters and middleware to a blockchain, the cost savings and improvement to settlement time – currently as long as a week for some of DTCC’s trades -will be pretty monumental to their business.”
  • Cost saving
    Blockchains are “uniquely suited” to reduce costs associated with reconciliations, settlement, and security. According to industry executives cost savings can come from eliminating redundant IT systems and trading and risk management overhead. The finance industry currently spends roughly $150 billion annually on IT and operations expenditures in addition to $100 billion on post-trade and securities servicing fees. A 2015 report by Santander estimated the global savings to banks more generally speaking could be as high as $20bn a year.
    To provide an example, parties that own identical records in a single, shared ledger would reap explicit cost savings around reconciliations. Similarly, parties that transact obligations in a wholly digital, peer-to-peer network underpinned by such a ledger would reap explicit cost savings around settlement activities as well. Furthermore, parties would be able to manage implicit costs in different ways, like exceptions management, regulatory reporting, know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) that stand to be streamlined in ways that provide maximum value in a peer-to-peer workflow.

… and other possible opportunities

Other possible benefits of the use of blockchain in the derivative space include increased transparency, lower counterparty risk, and easier accounting. This may ultimately lead to lower collateral needs and improved liquidity.

  • Improved transparency
    In addition to providing streamlined processing by supporting self-executing code, or smart contracts, it is “widely heralded as a bastion of transparency”. This is especially relevant for regulatory bodies. Since the distributed ledger’s record is immutable, a regulatory node has the potential to give government observers access to real-time data about transactions, instead of having to wait for reports from market participants.
  • Improved risk management
    The use of blockchain technology for derivatives could also improve risk management. It could provide market participants a degree of control over risk and versatility over the balance sheet that is unachievable with today’s paper assets. As an example, parties might consider cash flow exchanges every 30 seconds instead of every 30 days, reducing counterparty and credit risk commensurately, as well as changing how these risks are measured.
  • Improved collateral management
    Under blockchain, dealers will post collateral to the clearing house in the form of initial and variation margin by escrowing cash on a distributed cash ledger or by allocating assets held on other asset ledgers to a distributed collateral ledger. Smart derivative contracts that bind both seller and buyer will be stored on a distributed derivative ledger along with information from the cash and asset ledgers. This will lead to efficiencies for calculating derivative positions and obligations, leading to lower collateral needs.
  • “The smart contract can automatically compute exposures by referencing agreed external data sources (e.g. S&P 500, NASDAQ) that recalculate variation margin. Interoperable derivative and collateral ledgers would automatically allow the contract to call additional collateral units on asset ledgers to support these needs. At maturity, a final net obligation is computed by the smart contract, and a payment instruction automatically generated in the cash ledger, closing out the deal”
  • Improved liquidity
    Transparency, alongside reduced transaction and trade maintenance costs, could, in turn, enhance trading liquidity. In present situation in order to maintain liquidity levels firms nowadays have to overcompensate where the money has to be tied up for some time before the next transaction. The improvement in funds settlement and counterparty risk assessment in a blockchain environment may shorten the liquidity cycle for various derivative positions, allowing banks to inject liquidity into the system for other transactions much more quickly.

Remaining challenges

Despite all the positives around blockchain and smart contract technology, still many challenges exist. These are mostly the same as for other financial transactions, including lack of scalability, no common standards, no legal and regulatory certainty and the arrival of multiple distributed ledgers. But also smart contracts are at an early stage of development. Defining exactly what they are and how they would work is still a challenge. Regulators and standards bodies across many different industries will need to come together to define what they mean for each transaction and sector.

“The industry assumption is that there should not be one ledger to rule them all, there will be different ledgers and we need to work together to make sure they interoperate, not just from banks.” Braine Barclays

Are there opportunities for derivatives CCPs?

An interesting question is: why is DTCC so active in the blockchain arena: for defensive or offensive reasons? Blockchain technology is seen by many as a disruptive factor for a number of market infrastructure players such as CSDs, repositories and CCPs.

One of the original goals of blockchain technology is to remove the need for central governing bodies.  Traditionally, financial exchanges have required clearing houses to provide a guarantee to the winning party of the derivative contract in case the loser does not pay. The clearing house is able to provide this guarantee by requiring both parties to make cash deposits during the pre-trade phase.

The ledger will replace today’s process by which multiple parties reconcile proprietary books and records to accurately represent the custody and value of a financial instrument at any given point in time. With respect to the derivatives markets, blockchains would ultimately come to be used as digital asset registries, as a record residing in a single, shared ledger. So the mechanisms by which parties maintain custody of their obligations and the smart contracts that enshrine those obligations.

….. Yes there are!

A number of industry analysts however reason traders will continue to novate derivative trades via a Counterparty Clearing House (CCP) in order for dealers to net their exposures and monitor the financial well-being of counterparties (ensuring problems like double-spending are eliminated).

Also Nasdaq thinks there are opportunities for derivatives CCPs.

“The concepts of DLT – in its fundamental form with decentralised recording of asset ownership – and derivatives CCP clearing are inherently different. At first, it appears counterintuitive for a derivatives CCP to pursue a technology aimed at decentralising the processing of transactions and removing the need for a CCP. However, derivatives clearing consists of several processes such as position keeping, reconciliation, collateral management, risk and default management, and settlement. While margining and default management do not benefit from a decentralised process, position keeping and settlement could do – and here DLT can increase efficiency.” Fredrik Ekström, Nasdaq’s Clearing President in “Blockchain Tech for Derivatives CCPs — Friend or Foe?”

Final remarks

If this first large-scale implementation of a distributed ledger proves successful, there’s plenty of room to expand. In my mind one should be optimistic of further developments in this space, especially in consideration of the rising cost of reconciliations, post-trade operations, and security issues that market participants confront today.

It seems very likely that the DTCC initiative, once it becomes operational, will have a significant impact on the derivatives world and may open doors to massive adoption of distributed ledger technology for financial services including derivatives.

“This will be one of the first [instances] globally where we are using distributed ledger technology to become a piece of the infrastructure in a very critical market, in the credit default swaps market, and use it across the entirety of multiple players” “By recording transactions in a distributed ledger, everyone uses that same piece of information, that same trade batch, in the same exact way.” DTCC CEO Bodson.

The entire global credit derivatives market in 2016 was $544tn, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), much of which is processed by the DTCC.

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

Managing treasury risk: Credit Risk (Part V)

| 23-2-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

 

There are lots of discussions concerning risk, but let us start by trying to define what we mean by risk. In my fifth article I will focus on credit risk. Many companies have very significant credit needs and this needs to be formally addressed with a credit analysis procedure in place. In my former articles I dealt with risk management, interest rate risk, foreign exchange risk and commodity risk. See the complete list at the end of today’s article.

Credit Risk

Credit Risk occurs when there is a risk of default from money that has been lent to a borrower, or funds that have been invested.
The risk can be caused by:

  • Trade credit extend to a client, who does not pay
  • Inability to make a payment on a loan
  • A company going bankrupt
  • An insurance company not paying under a policy
  • A bank becoming insolvent
  • A company not paying wages to employees
  • A government defaulting

Main categories

The main categories of credit risk are:

Default risk
Counterparty risk
Sovereign risk
Legal risk
Concentration risk

Default risk:
occurs due to the default on monies owed either from lending or investment. The counterparty could be unable to repay. Sometimes they could also be unwilling to repay. The default risk is therefore on 100% of the outstanding balance, unless some form of recovery (be it full or partial) was possible.

Counterparty risk:
occurs when counterparties have to perform an action on a contractual commitment.
This can happen at both the time of settlement and also before settlement, but after entering a contract. Since the start of the financial crisis settlement risk is a major factor for banks. If at settlement a counterparty fails to meet its obligation, this can potentially lead to large losses and, eventually, to a systemic risk as you are therefore unable to meet your own obligations. A default before settlement can be alleviated by substituting a new contract though this could occur at prices far less favourable.

Sovereign risk:
entails the political, legal and regulatory exposures arising from international trade and cross border transactions. It can relate to a government failing in its obligation to repay or to new laws that prohibit free movement of funds – exchange control. Any contracts entered into with nondomestic counterparties should be analysed for the embedded sovereign risks and potential political instability.

Legal risk:
can occur if the counterparty is not legally allowed to enter into certain trades – especially derivative trades. We see in the media stories of companies that have experienced difficulties with derivatives leading to losses and court cases are started to either enforce or negate the contract. Also special purpose vehicles are formed purely to enter into certain transactions like securitisation issues. These are companies with no staff, fixed abode, or assets other than the underlying collateral of the issue.

Concentration risk:
 arises from lack of diversification. Too many loans from 1 or 2 banks, too many products purchased from 1 or 2 suppliers, too much revenue generated by 1 or 2 customers. This risk is a bit of a paradox as many companies become successful through concentrating their resources in key niche areas, whilst having to diversify their underlying risk at the same time.

Measures

There are, of course, measures that can be undertaken to identify and minimize these potential losses.

The first approach is counterparty ratings. Certain criteria can be examined – credit rating agencies, examination of financial statements, good knowledge of the counterparty, political, geographical (are they situated next to a volcano?) and legal status.

Notional exposure reveals the full amount outstanding with a counterparty – all the money that could potentially be lost.

Aggregate exposure netts the exposure with a counterparty between monies to be received and monies to be paid.

Clear picture of the replacement costs – the costs involved to replace the existing transaction with a new counterparty.

Techniques of measurement

Measurement of credit risk requires quantitative techniques to measure and model the risks.  An example would be Basel III that places a regulatory framework on banks to ensure adequate capital ratios. Eventually the techniques being used will trickle down to commercial companies. This should result in the creation of risk tools that are more sophisticated and improvements of the techniques used to report and measure risk.

However, as the financial crisis has clearly shown, over-reliance on sophisticated computer models appeared to lead to false comfort with the results generated by the modelling systems. This was caused by underestimating the risks in new financial products and the great assumption that is always prevalent in economic theory – people behave rationally at all times! Any model is a snapshot of the world and can only contain a few variables that are perceived as critical. All others are discarded to ensure that the model can work quickly and efficiently.

Lionel Pavey

 

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

 

 

More articles of this series:

Managing treasury risk: Risk management

Managing treasury risk: Interest rate risk 

Managing treasury risk: Foreign exchange risk

Managing treasury risk: Commodity Risk

 

Managing treasury risk: Commodity Risk (Part IV)

| 14-2-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

There are lots of discussions concerning risk, but let us start by trying to define what we mean by risk. In my fourth article I will write about commodity risk, what the strategies around commodities are and how to build a commodity risk framework. More information about my first three articles can be found at the end of today’s article.

Commodity Risk

Commodity risk occurs due to changes in price, quantity, quality and politics with regard to the underlying commodities. This can refer to both the commodity as a whole and an input component of a finished good. Commodity risk usually refers to the risk in a physical product, but also occurs in products like electricity. It can affect producers, suppliers and buyers.

Traditionally, commodity price risk was managed by the purchasing department. Here the emphasis was placed on the price – the lower the price, the better. But price is only one component of commodity risk. Price changes can either be observed directly in the commodity or indirectly when the commodity is an input in the finished product.
Availability, especially of energy, is crucial for any company to be able to undertake operations. Combining commodity risk over both Treasury and Purchasing allows these 2 departments to work closer and build a better understanding of the risks involved. It also allows for a comprehensive view of the whole supply chain within a company. A product like electricity is dependent on the input source of production – gas, petroleum, coal, wind, climate – as well as the price and supply of electricity itself.

There are many factors that can determine commodities prices – supply and demand, production capacity, storage, transport. As such it is not as easy to design the risk management model as it is for financial products.

 General strategies that can be implemented

  1. Acceptance
  2. Avoidance
  3. Contract hedging
  4. Correlated hedging

Acceptance
Acceptance would mean that the risk exposure would be unchanged. The company would then absorb all price increases and attempt to pass the increase on when selling the finished product.

Avoidance
Avoidance and/or minimizing means substituting or decreasing the use of certain input components.

Contract hedging
Contract hedging means using financial products related to the commodity, such as options and futures as well as swapping price agreements.

Correlated hedging
Correlated hedging means examining the exposure of a commodity – the price of crude oil is always quoted in USD – and taking a hedge in the USD as opposed to the crude oil itself. The 2 products are correlated to a certain extent, though not fully.

Commodity risk framework

Commodity price speculation – most contracts are settled by physical delivery – affects the market more than price speculation in currency markets.
To build a commodity risk framework, attention needs to given to the following:

  1. Identify the risks
  2. Measure the exposure
  3. Identify hedging products
  4. Examine the market
  5. Delegate the responsibility factors within the organization
  6. Involve management and the Board of Directors
  7. Perform analytics on identified positions
  8. Consider the accounting issues
  9. Create a team
  10. Are there system requirements needed

Problems can arise because of the following:

  1. Relevant information is dispersed throughout the company
  2. Management may not be aligned to the programme
  3. Quantifying exposure can be difficult
  4. There is no natural hedge for the exposure
  5. Design of reports and KPI’s can be complex

It requires an integrated commitment from diverse departments and management to understand and implement a robust, concise policy – but this should not be a hindrance to running the policy.

Lionel Pavey

 

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist 

 

 

More articles of this series:

Managing treasury risk: Risk management

Managing treasury risk: Interest rate risk 

Managing treasury risk: Foreign exchange risk

 

Payment fraud – how companies can protect themselves

|13-2-2017 | Joerg Wiemer | sponsored content |

Information about the opportunities and risks of digitalization is widely spread. In general, risks occur when there is a chance of losing a competitive advantage or falling behind.  However, one of the biggest risks is without doubt cybercrime. Attacks on IT systems worldwide increased yet again by 38 percent in 2015, according to the consulting firm PwC in their “Global State of Information Security Survey 2016”. If these attacks are aimed at the payment transactions of a company, the entire existence of the organization is easily threatened. Therefore, security measures in treasury and payments processes should be at the very top of the agenda. Jörg Wiemer, CSO of TIS, explains how companies can ensure increased security.

In general, when does a risk exist for companies during payment transactions?

JW: In principle, in any situation that involves a lack of transparency across bank relationships and activities. In these cases, cash positions and liquidity are not clear. Let’s assume that a branch transfers ten million dollars at the beginning of the month. If these bookings rely on manual processes and the balance is only checked once at the end of the month, it takes a full thirty days until the fraud is detected. Time is literally money.  By monitoring treasury in real time, it is possible to detect these procedures much earlier, thereby solving them in many cases.   

It can take a lot of time until the head office of the branch gains knowledge about such cases.

JW: This is the heart of the problem: The prevailing regional division of labor makes it easy for fraudsters. If the account statements in paper are collected locally in each branch, it takes weeks until those responsible in the head office notice that an account statement is missing, and with it, the positions written on it. This is exactly why a company should collect all account statements from every bank account worldwide automatically and assess liquidity positions in real time with a software like TIS.

What else facilitates frauds?

JW: Fraud can occur if there is no complete overview of the electronic signing authorities, if there is no dual control principle during payment transactions or during the administration of payment recipients and, in general, during every user administration, which is particularly prone to fraud. These are the typical gateways.

How can I detect that I am at an increased risk?

JW: One reliable indicator of a low level of security in payment transactions is a high amount of manual transactions. Normally, the assumption is that every payment has to be recorded in the accounting system according to the best practices – no booking without receipt, and no payment without a previous booking. Nevertheless, under certain circumstances, there are deviations and exceptions of this principle. The key term here is “exception handling”, which results in a manual payment. An exemption is necessary for these cases, which includes comprehensive process documentation. The possibility of recording and authorization of non-automatic payments should be restricted to certain recipients of the payment and internal user groups. Furthermore, the user should only be allowed to use unchangeable payment templates that have been approved in advance.

How can companies reduce risks?

JW:  A general rule is to standardize and and automate processes across the group of companies! Payment related tasks can be executed on local level, however, based on a standardized and automated process. A central directory of every existing account and a payment governance should be mandatory for every company. Security in payment transactions begins with the professional management of the bank accounts. Otherwise, those responsible run the risk of fraudulent payments through accounts that are not registered in the ledger. The next step is to centralize the payment transactions. Digital payment platforms like TIS pool the cash flow and standardize and automate it. This way, payment procedures and the cash flow are controllable at all times.

What has payment looked like in practice up until now?

JW: Heterogeneous and confusing. Companies have a lot of different systems in each part of their organization and they use different e-banking tools to connect to the banks. The SAP system then generates payments. This is complicated and complex and there are many different protocols and formats. This is the reason for high costs as well as increased fraud risk.

In light of this, which solution approach does TIS pursue?

JW: We provide a payment transactions platform especially for medium and large-sized companies in any industry. The platform connects their accounting system with the respective bank. It then operates between the core systems – which the client does not have to change –  and the bank. Therefore, the platform is the single point of contact, allowing all automated and standardized payment transactions to be combined in a uniform way for the entire company. This makes the management, monitoring and assessment of payment transactions tremendously easier.

The TIS solution runs completely in the cloud. What about the topics of control and secure data storage?

JW: A server as such is either secure or not secure, no matter if it runs in the cloud or in your own house. It is also possible to dial into an in-house server with the banking tools of a company from anywhere as long as the person has the appropriate authorization or the right amount of criminal energy. This is why the server has to be permanently protected from non-authorized access with a high level of modern technology. The big data centers, with which TIS also cooperates, have totally different possibilities than a single company. Let me say a few words regarding the topic of online banking:  the idea that banking tools on a private notebook which runs offline are somehow more secure is an illusion. This computer provides a much bigger gateway for viruses and Trojans than any e-banking solution that runs in the cloud. It speaks volumes, that the Swiss Reporting and Analysis Centre for Information Assurance (MELANI) has recently started receiving a much higher amount of reports from the general public regarding e-banking frauds.

The right software is one part, but what can be done to ensure risk is handled correctly and that the right methods of payments processing are put into place?

JW: Good governance must be established and implemented. Companies need globally valid rules for their payment transactions with detailed guidelines on the following: how accounts are managed, who can open new accounts, who must give permission for this, and the documentation necessary to do so. There are always bad examples for what can happen if the company does not follow the guidelines. Remember the case of the automotive suppliers Leonie mid-2016? Cybercriminals acquired documents and assumed somebody else’s identity. They were then able to divert 40 million euros from accounts of the company to accounts abroad.

My advice on how to minimize risk? Establish governance guidelines and use a central platform for the management of bank accounts and payment transactions. Through automated and standardized processes, companies can protect themselves against manipulation and fraud and, ultimately, the loss of money.

If you are interested to read more about this topic please click on security in payments

joerg wiemer

 

Joerg Wiemer

CSO and Co-Founder of  Treasury Intelligence Solutions GmbH ( TIS)

 

 

 

Managing Treasury Risk – Foreign Exchange Risk (Part III)

| 7-2-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

 

There are lots of discussions concerning risk, but let us start by trying to define what we mean by risk. In my third article I will focus on foreign exchange risk. This risk has to be taken into consideration when a financial commitment is denominated in a currency other than the base currency of a company.
There are 4 types of foreign exchange risk.

Transaction Risk

Transaction risk occurs when future cash flows are denominated in other currencies. This refers to both payables and receivables.  Adverse changes in foreign exchange prices can lead to a fall in profit, or even a loss.

Translation Risk

Translation risk occurs when accounting translation for asset and liabilities in financial statements are reported. When consolidating from an operating currency into a reporting currency (overseas offices etc.) the value of assets, liabilities and profits are translated back to the reporting currency. Translation risk does not affect a company’s cash flows, but adverse changes can affect a company’s earnings and value.

Economic Risk

Economic risk occurs when changes in foreign exchange rates can leave a company at a disadvantage in comparison to competitors. This can affect competitive advantage and market share. Future cash flows from investments are also exposed to economic risk.

Contingent Risk

Contingent risk occurs when potential future work is expressed in a foreign currency. An example would be taking part in a tender for work in another country where the pricing is also in a foreign currency. If a company won a large foreign tender, which results in an immediate down payment being received, the value of that money would be subject to transaction risk. There is a timeframe between submitting a tender and knowing if the tender has been won, where a company has contingent exposure.

Identifying Foreign Exchange Risk

  1. What risk does a company face and how can it be measured
  2. What hedging or rate management policy should a company use
  3. What financial product, available in the market, should be best used
  4. Does the risk relate to operational cash flows or financial cash flows

Initially we need to ascertain what we think future FX rates will be. Methods that can be used include the Forward Rate Parity, the International Fisher Effect which also includes expected inflation, forecasts provider by banks and international forums, along with VaR. Model analysis can be provided, among others, via fundamental factors, technical analysis, and political analysis.

Different FX rates can then be used to simulate the effects on cash transactions when converted back into the base currency. This will provide different results that will allow a company to determine what level of risk it is prepared to accept. Finally a decision must be taken as to whether the company wishes to hedge its exposure or not. Before the advent of the Euro, both the Netherlands and Germany  were members of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). This meant there was agreed band within which the spot rate could move around an agreed central point – this was NLG 112.673 equal to DEM 100.00 with a bandwidth of +- 2.25%. For some companies, this tight band meant that they took the decision not to hedge any exposure between DEM and NLG.

Financial products that are commonly used to manage foreign exchange risk include Forward Exchange contracts, Futures, Caps, Floors, Collars, Options, Currency Swaps and Money Market hedging.

Lionel Pavey

 

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

 

More articles of this series:

Managing treasury risk: Risk management

Managing treasury risk: Interest rate risk 

Managing treasury risk: Interest rate risk (Part II)

|31-1-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

 

There are lots of discussions concerning risk, but let us start by trying to define what we mean by risk. In my first article of this series I wrote about risk managment and what the core criteria are for a solid risk management policy. Today I want to focus on interest rate risk. There are 4 types of interest rate risk.

 

Absolute Interest Rate Risk

Absolute interest rate risk occurs when we are exposed to directional changes in rates – either up or down. This is the main area of rate risk that gets monitored and analysed within a company as it is immediately visible and has a potential effect on profit.

Yield Curve Risk

Yield curve risk occurs from changes between short term rates and long term rates, together with changes in the spreads between the underlying periods. Under normal circumstances a yield curve would be upward sloping if viewed as a graph. The implication is that longer term rates are higher than short term rates because of the higher risk to the lender and less liquidity in the market for long dated transactions. Changes to the yield curve (steepening or flattening) can have an impact on decisions for investment and borrowings, leading to changes in profit.

Refunding or Reinvestment Risk

Refunding or reinvestment risk occurs when borrowings or investments mature at a time when interest rates are not favourable. Borrowings or investments are rolled over at rates that had not been forecast leading to a potential loss on projects or investments.

Embedded Options Risk

Embedded options are provisions in securities that cannot be traded separately from the security and grant rights to either the issuer or the holder that can introduce additional risk. Benefits for the issuer can include a call option, a right to repay before maturity without incurring a penalty, an interest rate cap. Benefits for the holder can include a put option, a conversion right via convertible bonds, an interest rate floor.

 

An attempt can be made to calculate the interest rate risk on either a complete portfolio or on individual borrowings or investment. This is done by comparing the stated interest rate to the actual or projected interest rate. Methods include:

  1. Mark to market
  2. Parallel shift in the whole yield curve
  3. Tailor-made shift in the whole yield curve
  4. Duration, DV01, Convexity
  5. Value at Risk (VaR)

These are all forms of quantitative analysis and well recognized. Personally I am of the opinion that VaR is not a very good method for interest rates. Interest rates do not display normal Gaussian distribution – they do not resemble a normal bell curve. Interest rate distribution curves display fat tails compared to normal statistical models.

Financial products that are commonly used to manage interest rate risk include FRAs, Futures, Caps, Floors, Collars, Options, Interest Rate Swaps and Swaptions.

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

 

 

More articles from this author:

Safety of Payments

The treasurer and data

The impact of negative interest rates

How long can interest rates stay so low?

 

Managing treasury risk : Risk Management (Part I)

| 23-1-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

 

There are lots of discussions concerning risk, but let us start by trying to define what we mean by risk.
It is a negative event that can potentially lead to loss or liability; it is exposure to uncertainty; it is a deviation from the expected outcome. It can be caused by people, changes in the law, products used in day-to-day activity to facilitate the business. Risk is not an uncertainty – it is a “known unknown”

 

 

Risk arises in every activity of a company and, therefore, a procedure of risk assessment has to be determined within a company and controls implemented. We can conclude that a risk management policy is a crucial part of the risk management function. The policy provides a framework – and details the framework – for decision making, whilst adhering to the company’s agreed viewpoint on risk.

Risk Management

A risk management policy can be very extensive as it relates to all risks faced by a company – we shall only focus on the risk relating to treasury operations. Treasury risk policy should be developed by the Treasury department, together with management, and approved by the board of directors. Once approved and implemented, the policy should be regularly reviewed and amended to ensure that it effectively meets the changing risks as the company advances.

Core criteria

The core criteria for undertaking the policy include:

  1. Providing a framework (matrix) for financial decision making
  2. Defining a policy for identifying and controlling risk
  3. Confirmation of the objectives and restrictions set by the board of directors and management
  4. Safeguarding the interests of stakeholders
  5. Enabling the reporting and measurement of treasury risk to the board of directors and management

Strategic components

Strategic components related to the policy include:

  1. Objectives
  2. Standards of care
  3. Authority and Responsibility
  4. Requirements for third party providers
  5. Types of transactions
  6. Constraints on transactions
  7. Reporting
  8. Policy review process
  9. Benchmarking

Major treasury related risks that shall be discussed in my next articles include:

  • Interest rate risk
  • Foreign Exchange risk
  • Commodity risk
  • Credit risk
  • Operational risk
  • Liquidity risk

A search through Google will show more risks, but we are attempting to show and discuss the main types of risk in treasury operations.

In the rest of the series, we shall elaborate on the above 6 major treasury related risk categories.

“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing” – Warren Buffett

Lionel Pavey

 

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

 

More articles from this author:

Safety of Payments

The treasurer and data

The impact of negative interest rates

How long can interest rates stay so low?

Het belang van de basiskennis van delivery terms en betalingsinstrumenten in een organisatie

| 20-1-2017 | Ger van Rosmalen | treasuryXL

Al een tijdje geleden leverde Ger van Rosmalen dit boeiende verhaal en wij delen het graag met jullie, omdat het nog steeds actueel is. Het maakt eens te meer duidelijk dat goede communicatie tussen afdelingen in het belang van de hele organisatie is en hierin investeren geen overbodige luxe.
Daarnaast is het zeer zinvol dat niet alleen de verkoop-afdeling een goede basiskennis heeft van delivery terms en betalingsinstrumenten, maar ook de andere afdelingen in de verkoopketen en dat ook regelmatig uitgewisseld wordt met de treasury.

De treasury-afdeling van een bedrijf dekt een koersrisico af voor de levering van machines aan een afnemer in Turkije. De betaling is op 60 dagen na factuurdatum en de afnemer heeft een limiet onder de kredietverzekering. Afdeling sales heeft de machines verkocht met als delivery term (EXW) Ex Works. De afnemer stuurt een vrachtauto om de machines op te halen maar bij het laden gaat er iets verkeerd en valt één machine van de vorkheftruck en wordt total loss verklaard. Omdat de tweede machine alleen maar kan werken met combinatie met de andere machine die nu total loss is verklaard, weigert de afnemer te betalen.

Wellicht had de treasury-afdeling dit contract eerder kunnen rescontreren maar nu liep het contract tot de einddatum en volgde er geen betaling. De afdeling treasury werd niet geïnformeerd over dit probleem. De partijen zijn in een juridisch gevecht terecht gekomen want het laden van de vrachtauto blijkt door eigen personeel te zijn gedaan. EXW wil zeggen dat de chauffeur van de afnemer de machines zelf had moeten laden maar vaak, hoe goed bedoeld ook, doen de collega’s van het magazijn dit. In principe gaat het risico over van verkoper op koper bij EXW op het moment dat de machines van hun plek worden gehaald. Laden de magazijnmedewerkers de producten zelf dan had een andere delivery term afgesproken moeten worden namelijk FCA Free Carrier.

Bovenstaande situatie toont aan dat het belangrijk is om niet alleen de afdeling sales maar ook andere afdelingen basiskennis mee te geven van delivery terms en betalingsinstrumenten. Daarnaast is het van groot belang om de afdelingen sales, logistiek, finance, treasury en credit regelmatig met elkaar in gesprek te laten zijn (en te laten blijven), dat maakt dat iedereen attent is op risico’s die ook buiten hun eigen aandachtsgebied liggen. Je hebt tenslotte toch allemaal een gezamenlijk belang binnen een bedrijf?

Ger van Rosmalen

Trade Finance Specialist

 

Safety of payments

| 3-1-2017 | Lionel Pavey | GT News

Fraud and cybercrime protection is of major importance for corporate treasurers. In the past year a new risk had to be added to the list: connectivity. Reports of banks being hacked and losing millions through unauthorised payments appeared more and more frequently and since protecting payment connectivity workflows was not a high priority item on the list of treasurers, it created damage in the industry.
GT News deals with the topic of how to protect payments in their article’ ‘Five tips for keeping your payments safe‘ on december 21st, 2016. We asked our expert Lionel Pavey to comment on the article and give us his own view on how to protect payments.

Safety of payments

As even medium size companies can easily have over 100,000 bank transactions per year, it is imperative for a company to ascertain the validity of all payments so that no fraudulent payments take place.

Authorisation Matrix

It is necessary to embed a clearly defined matrix within the company. This should follow a six-eye principle and be traceable within the payment system – invariably a bank payment system. The matrix should include the names of all those authorized; the amount they may authorize; the distinct legal entities they may represent etc. This data also needs to maintained and secured away from the payment centre (IT or legal department). If a new person needs to be added to the list who implements the procedure – Treasury or IT?

Types of payments

There are various workflows that will generate payments and these should be mapped and a complete process should be designed for each one – procurement system and creditors in the book keeping; financial obligations from the existing financing operations (loans, bonds etc.); tax on wages; social premiums; Value Added Tax (BTW); manual payments normally arising from expense claims and incidental purchases outside the normal procurement channel.

Validity of payments

Normal payments relating to creditors are relatively easy to follow – authorization has taken place in 2 different areas (procurement and book keeping). VAT requires data from book keeping for both debtors and creditors. Tax on wages and social premiums are normally presented just once a month either through the administration/controller channel or directly from HR. The biggest area of concern relates to manual payments.

Manual payments

These generally relate to purchases (normally one-off). The obvious question that arises is why is there a need for suppliers that are not in the existing procurement system? It is not impossible to ensure that there are preferred suppliers for all normal desires. Another source is repayments to debtors that are not balanced off against outstanding balances. If a company does not have dedicated software relating to the financing operations who, beyond the Treasury Department, can verify the amounts and dates? The area that requires the greatest vigilance relates to expense claims. Just because a line manager authorizes an expense claim does not mean that it is always compliant with company policy – this is an area where the onus should be on the controller to validate the integrity of the expense claim. Is the expense a genuine expense made in direct relationship to working for the company? An employee away on business and staying in a hotel is entitled to a meal at the expense of the company, but what is the policy towards alcohol and entertainment? Is the amount being claimed excessive and work related?

Integrity of bank systems

How secure is the bank system? When a batch is prepared for payment and an authorisation code produced, how is the code produced – what are the underlying factors that generate the code? Is it possible to alter the beneficiary’s account number after the batch has been produced? Would an alteration be seen by the system, resulting in an incorrect authorisation code? Banks generally do not provide a lot of information as to how their system generates codes.

Reconciliation

Who can extract data from the bank systems? Does this occur daily? Are all entries processed the following day in the book keeping system? What happens to items that are not immediately reconciled?

Conclusion

With regard to standard procurement, it should be easy to construct a solid working system that can be followed at all times. Manual payments are a weak link and a serious amount of time and effort has to be used in constructing a strong framework that has to be enforced and maintained at all times.

Lionel Pavey

 

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist