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Industries are ready for blockchain take off

| 16-8-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

An interesting study was released recently by Juniper Research. Given its findings this survey needs some more widely spread recognition and that’s the reason for this blog. Named “Which industries are the best fit for blockchain”, this study came to some interesting conclusions, that were broadly in line with my blog of early June (see: Blockchain technology by 2018: a breakthrough, June 3, 2017). Their findings may underline my statement that we are further in the Gartner Cycle and that 2018 may be the year of the real breakthrough for blockchain technology for a number of industries. But for whom? Let’s have a look.

The study and its main finding

The survey’s main finding is that almost 40% of all interviewed (almost 370 executives, managers and IT profs) including 56% of the largest companies were either “considering” or “were in the process of employing blockchain solutions”.

This indicates that a majority of companies nowadays have a much greater understanding of blockchain and distributed ledger technology. They are recognizing that blockchain has the ” potential to be deployed in a variety of use cases”. There is also increased awareness amongst industries to consider deployment to gain competitive advantage.

Other findings

This “dramatic” increase in awareness is shown by the outcome that more than 80% of the surveyed companies have ‘a little’ or ‘a good’ understanding of blockchain

“It is clear that companies across the board have a significantly greater understanding of blockchain technology than was the case 12 months ago,”Juniper report.

More than three quarter of the respondents believe that blockchain could be ‘very useful’ or ‘quite useful’ for their company.
The time of exploring what blockchain is and what corporates can do with it lies largely behind us. It is now more about what blockchain systems to choose and how to integrate it in their legacy systems. Or as the study stated “It’s now much more geared to competing protocols, or the vetting of use cases …”.

Companies anticipating integration of blockchain

The survey also shows that many corporates are actively considering blockchain deployments.

Amongst the largest companies even 54% are in the so-called Proof of Concept (PoC) stage, while a further 16% is already involved in blockchain trials.
And those who already are in the PoC stage, two-thirds expect blockchain will be integrated in their legacy systems by the end of 2018.
While 81% of the smaller companies surveyed expect integration to be completed by the end of 2018, almost 60% of the large companies surveyed say they will reach that stage at that date.

Corporates and disruption

Despite the dramatic increase in blockchain awareness and identified benefits over the past 18 months, however, it is “critically important that companies consider all alternative options before deciding whether or not to deploy blockchain” according to the report.
Juniper mentioned that companies should consider whether blockchain is the necessary solution to their needs, as some companies under-estimate the challenges of deployment. They should seek “systemic change, rather than technological” innovation.

That “might be a better and cheaper solution than blockchain, which could potentially cause significant internal and external disruption.” Juniper report.

One main concern for the surveyed companies is in what way, who and where blockchain might disrupt not only their legacy systems but also their relationships with their clients. This is in part due to their fears around interoperability. Customers’ systems may no longer integrate with (or be compatible with) their upgraded systems.

The survey further shows that:

35% of all corporates surveyed are considering or actually deploying blockchain and feel it will cause ‘significant’ disruption (in general)
And more than half of these corporates considering or actively deploying blockchain feel it will cause ‘significant’ disruption to their partners/customers
42% of them were concerned that the reluctance or refusal of their clients or partners to deploy blockchain might cause them difficulties , compared with a quarter of all companies surveyed.

“Companies may have underestimated the scale of the blockchain challenge. For issues such as interoperability, the proportion of survey respondents expressing concerns progressively increased as companies proceed towards full deployment, while concerns also rose sharply regarding client refusal to embrace blockchain”. Juniper research

Who are the industries with largest blockchain opportunities?

This is a very interesting part of the survey. Jupiner Research conducted a comparative assessment of blockchain’ potential’s across 9 key industry areas. Main conclusion is that “in most cases, the more a vertical (industry) is suited to blockchain deployment, the greater the degree of implementation challenges”.

“Essentially, blockchain offers particular benefits to improve efficiency and corporate transparency; if an enterprise is heavily dependent upon paper-based storage and has high volumes of transactions or transmitted information, it can be especially effective.” says Windsor Holden, blockchain specialist at Juniper

Deployments in verticals such as Utilities and Content Publishing do not pose the scale and variety of challenges involved in Financial Settlement, according to the survey. They however “will not achieve the extent of gains, cost savings, efficiencies and risk reduction as is possible in the financial settlement industry”, according to the Juniper Research survey.

And what industries are (already) fit for blockchain

According to the survey, when challenges are measured against the scale of the opportunity, industries like Automotive, Financial Settlement and Land Registry emerge as particularly interesting prospects for blockchain application. This compared to other segments such as Utilities, Telcos a.o.

This is not that strange as next to the relative successes achieved in blockchain integration especially in the financial sector thus far, blockchain may bring more benefits as it will be a real problem solver for these industries challenges. While the inherent characteristics of these sectors make them more suitable for blockchain technology.

What else is needed?

But that is not the whole storey. Corporates are not isolated entities. To be successful corporates should raise the awareness of blockchain’s capabilities at their customers. And before integrating blockchain in their own systems they should get a greater understanding of the scale of potential hurdles.

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

Trump’s determination to protect American business

| 14-8-2017 | Rob Beemster |

Many negative issues surround the President of the United States. Approval rating hits new low, surprise on his erratic conduct seems to grow daily. Trump is a unique politician. He is incomparable to any other western political leader. I want to pinpoint his monetary policy in 2017, by looking at the pattern of the dollar so far this year.

The dollar in 2017

Currency pair January 2017 August 2017 Relative decrease USD

EUR/USD 1.05 1.18 12.4%

AUD/USD 0.72 0.80 11.1%

GBP/USD 1.22 1.32 8.2%

USD/JPY 1.18 1.10 6.8%

USD/CNY 6.96 6.70 3.7%

Maybe Mr Trump does have a foreign economic policy.

He sees the results of Chinese manipulation and soft American response as an unfair trade relationship. The President of the US must do something about these unbalances. At least, this is how Trump judges.

Let’s take into account this Potus is a streetfighter. Long bilateral meetings with the Chinese are not options for Trump. Fast and furious, that it is: Bring the dollar down!!
And this is going on for half a year now. It is going the Trump way. Tough (but efficient)!

How to see the future value of the dollar?

The current outlook for the dollar against its main trading relations is related to some issues:

– Process of QE by ECB, and Euro interest rates

– North Korea

– China’s position in this geopolitical stress

– Economic conditions of the US

– Economic conditions of the main trading partners of the US

These are very important to determine the future value of the dollar. But this is the holistic view, we are all used to. Let’s be flexible and take a different stance. Just conclude as Trump will do. Be his alter ego.Then the most important issues are:

– Pattern of the Euro against the dollar and the bilateral trade balance between US and Germany

– China’s reaction to a lower dollar

– US trade balance

– US corporates repatriation of overseas cash

– US investments to produce within America

– FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in America

This is a totally different scope. If we want to understand Trump, then we have to use his view on the international arena. The above mentioned bullet points are crucial. All can easily be measured, Trump loves that. I would like to go through these points to be able to clarify the possible outcome of the dollar for the coming time.

Pattern of the Euro against the dollar and the bilateral trade balance between US and Germany

The more than 12% revaluation will have a serious impact on the trade balance between US and Germany. When the correction emerges, Trump might temper his view on Germany. When we notice correction in the trade data, the dollar has gone far enough…

China’s reaction to a lower dollar

So far the yuan has gained some territory but not as much as other major currencies rose against the dollar. How will PBOC and the Chinese Government react on Trump’s wishes to correct the trade balance by a devaluation of the dollar against the yuan? If they take action on Trump’s stated requirements, whatever this may be, then pressure may diminish.

US trade balance

For many years the US faces a deficit on its trade balance. The more than $500 billion yearly shortage is a notable pain point. If a remarkable achievement can be noticed on short term, a more relaxed dollar attitude may be expected.

US corporates repatriation of overseas cash

In history, attempts have been organised by US governments to return overseas cash of US corporations. During President Bush jr Presidency, corporations did repatriate cash. When Trump does decrease the corporate tax tariff to 15% and he rewards the US corps to transfer their money back to the US without any other penalty payments, a large repatriation may get going. Many of these funds will until now be held in local currencies, so a switch to the dollar may occur.

US corps return back to America

Trump has ordered US companies to produce in the US instead of overseas. If he becomes successful by bringing factories back to the US, the trade balance will shift, employment will improve. Also when large repatriation is done, these funds can be invested in local factories.

FDI in America

Many non-US corporations are scared by the threat of the US government that regulations like import tariffs and other taxes may be charged on imports. It will damage the advantage corporations have experienced last couple of years due to the high dollar. If special import tariffs are installed, investments may be done in the US to avoid these special expenditures. Onshore producing on American soil will become an alternative.

How to manage this?

Foreign currency management has always been a hard part of the international business. Currency moves are unpredictable. But since Trump, one has to be aware of non-economic issues as well. Note that all the above mentioned issues can have effect on the value of the dollar. Professional guidance of your flows is becoming more and more important. Barcelona valuta experts helps you to install a decent strategy to counter unpredicted events. We guide you in protecting the cash flow.

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

PSD2: The Disruption and Innovation of Open Banking

| 11-8-2017 | treasuryXL | The Paypers |

PSD2 is a recurring topic which is of great concern to financial institutions and other payment service providers, as well as finance professionals at corporates all over the world. We read an interesting article about the disruption and innovation of open banking at The Paypers and want to share it with you. The article is part of the Open Banking & APIs Report 2017, aimed to provide necessary insights to help readers understand the latest developments on the topic, as well as practical examples and best practices in Open Banking. Alisdair Faulkner of ThreatMetrix states that innovation, enhanced security and the drive for greater competition are the golden triptychs at the heart of PSD2.

PSD2: Game changer, opportunity and challenge

PSD2 is a game changer for digital payments and commerce in Europe and will have a significant global impact. It requires financial institutions to make changes to their platforms and systems, while making strategic decisions on how they want to play going forward. These changes will require significant investment as well as a strategic shift, as banks are forced to consider how they can safely open their banking platforms to external third parties. While this may negatively impact the revenue of large banks, it can also level the playing field for smaller fintechs, as well as provide opportunity for new product innovations.

Not only do banks and other PSPs need to work toward compliance, but they also need to define their strategy to position themselves competitively in the market. They will also need to align the somewhat competing demands of rapid innovation while maintaining vigilant security as the cybercrime war continues to rage.

Innovation and Disruption

Digital transactions have had a huge impact on the evolution of the fintech industry as niche products and services have emerged to fill the crevasses left by larger financial institutions. These include services for the unbanked and underbanked, instant insurance, crowdfunded loans and global online remittance. Fintech operators have been able to rapidly innovate for many reasons: a lack of legacy back end systems, lower regulations and less online scrutiny, for example. On the other hand, large financial institutions have unwittingly become the enablers with minimal benefit.

However, PSD2 and Open Banking regulations are set to create more opportunities as both financial institutions and new providers compete to drive smarter revenue from payments. With open banking, the financial institutions would be increasingly at risk of losing their direct relationship with the customer and becoming a back end utility. On the other hand, new providers could emerge, enabling customers to access their banking services from a common portal, without having to ever log into their bank. These portals may also enable the customer to get services à la carte from a menu of banks. As such, businesses are contemplating the path forward as they wait for new payment platforms and ecosystems that lead to new business models to emerge. It will be critical for established providers to decide how to take advantage of the opportunity and not be left behind.

What are the threats and possible solutions to navigate the future according to Alisdair Faulkner?

Please read more by referring to the original article on The Paypers.

Business intelligence for cash flows & cash positions

| 10-8-2017 | Treasury Intelligence Solutions GmbH (TIS) | Sponsored content |

How do strategic professionals decide on the best path to success for their company? The key for strategic finance professionals and the best path to success lies in transparency and real-time reporting across company-wide cash flow and liquidity levels, bank transactions, customer and supplier relations and working capital.

When cash flow visibility is the lifeblood of your company, you want full control and knowledge. Direct access to insights on profitability and potential business risks allow you to make better decisions based on solid business intelligence that is accessible anytime and anywhere. Companies now can experience the power of the Business Discovery Manager – a business intelligence module within the TIS cloud platform. Supplier, salary and treasury payments can be easily analysed along with cash flows, liquidity and working capital via easy-to-use dashboards and reports. The tool, enhanced through state-of-the-art BI technology, enables users to access all strategic insights in a single, flexible, web-based and multi-bank, multi-ERP capable platform, available 24 hours a day from anywhere in the world.

Do you want to find out more about this interesting topic?
Do you want to discover the benefits and functions of the Business Discovery Manager in detail?

Treasury Intelligence Solutions (TIS)

You can request the TIS Factsheet via the red button.

Cash management – Mandatory truck system

| 9-8-2017 | Douwe Dijkstra |

As an interim treasurer, several times when I commence a new assignment at a new client for a cash management implementation the bank selection for the cash management solution to be implemented has already been done. Not by the treasury (or any other) department, based on a request for proposal or any other selection criteria but as a result of the mandatory truck system (“verplichte winkelnering”).

The bank, or in case of a syndication the banks, already defined in the (syndicated) facility agreement which bank(s) will operate the borrowers cash management.

It goes without saying that this obligation means that not always the best choice for the company has been made. The “best cash management bank” can be different for each and every company (although some banks may pretend to have the best solution in all areas for all companies). Important criteria are whether a company is centralized or decentralized, what specific products the client requires from the bank, the price list of the bank, the foot print of the bank etc. etc.

It’s my observation that officers negotiating the (re)financing consider cash management as the way it is described e.g. “side business”. Banks try to make the decision makers for the facility agreement believe that they do not earn anything on it. Thus, the circle is complete.

Douwe Dijkstra

Owner of Albatros Beheer & Management

SWIFT Blockchain POC: Enhanced cross-border payments

| 8-8-2017 | Carlo de Meijer |

Early July SWIFT announced that 22 global banks recently joined its Blockchain proof of concept (PoC) initiative introduced in January this year in collaboration with six leading correspondent banks (ANZ, BNP Paribas, BNY Mellon, RBC Royal Bank and Wells Fargo). The PoC is part of SWIFT’s ‘gpi’ (global payments innovation) service, the new standard for cross-border payments, aimed to “re-arm the correspondent banking system for a new age of technological disruption”.

This Blockchain PoC initiative is designed to explore whether blockchain technology can help banks to improve the reconciliation of their international nostro accounts in real-time, optimising their global liquidity. If so, that would be a break through event for both SWIFT and blockchain.

Present state

Currently, banks cannot monitor their account positions in real-time due to lack of intraday reporting coverage. The present pain points banks currently experience when making cross-border payments center around a lack of visibility into the end-to-end transactions lifecycle. Under the current correspondent banking model, banks need to monitor the funds in their overseas accounts via debit and credit updates and end-of-day statements. The maintenance and operational work involved represents a significant portion of the cost of making cross-border payments.

“Cross border payments are like a black box for us. We don’t know when the funds will be credited, we don’t know what fees will be charged and we also have problems with reconciliation”. states Martin Schlageter, head of Treasury Operations at Swiss healthcare conglomerate Roche.

As such, the POC recognises the need for banks to receive real-time liquidity data in order to manage funds throughout the business day.

SWIFT GPI service

The PoC is being undertaken as part of SWIFT gpi, a new service that “may revolutionise the cross-border payments industry by combining real-time payments tracking with the speed and certainty of same-day settlement for international payments”.

The SWIFT gpi should be seen as SWIFT’s response to the problems they faced after a series of attacks events that showed that “all was not as secure as everyone believed”. SWIFT gpi initiative was first announced at the annual Sibos conference in 2015. The project went into live production in January this year to address core problems related to speed, transparency and traceability of cross border payments.

SWIFT gpi not only delivers a much-needed improvement in the speed of transaction, but also improves overall customer experience by creating predictable settlement times and clear statuses, through additional (unaltered transfer of) information on remittances and transparency around the FX rates and fees applied throughout the payment cycle.

“The ability to deliver enhanced remittance information alongside the payment will help customers make better decisions along the payment chain, while also creating better efficiency opportunities. The decision to make gpi available in the “cloud” is also exciting, and we anticipate this will lead to the development of entirely new services, that combine SWIFT gpi with capabilities provided by banks, clients and vendors.“ says Tom Halpin, Global Head of Payments Product Management, HSBC Global Liquidity and Cash Management

Key features

Key features of the SWIFT gpi service include a secure tracking database in the cloud accessible via APIs, and enhanced business rules.

Cornerstone of SWIFT gpi is the highly innovative new cross-border TRACKER, a special tracking feature that enables international payments to be traced real-time. It allows banks to provide corporate treasurers with a real-time, end-to-end view (visibility) on the status of their payments, including confirmations of the amount credited to the beneficiaries’ account. The Tracker is available via an open API, making it compatible with proprietary banking systems worldwide – helping to ensure maximum impact of gpi benefits at a greater adoption speed.

A second key feature is the OBSERVER, a quality assurance tool that monitors participants’ adherence to the gpi business rules. Gpi’s transparency ensures that remittance information such as invoice references, is transferred unaltered to recipients.

Gpi uptake

Membership is open to any supervised financial institution that agrees to comply with SWIFT’s business rules. But also non-bank organisations can join SWIFT gpi initiative. The SWIFT gpi service has received considerable bank support across the globe. And the number of global transaction banks that are actively using SWIFT’s gpi service is continuously growing. Since its launch the number of banks that are live with SWIFT gpi has risen beyond 100, and hundreds of thousands GPI payments have already been sent across 85 country corridors. This represents more than 75% of all SWIFT cross border payments.

“The increasing number of banks going live on this service addresses the demands of corporate treasurers. Hence, banks cannot afford to not join the initiative and go live as soon as possible. Our expectation is that all of our cross-border payments will be end-to-end Swift gpi payments in the future.” Group of Swiss corporates

SWIFT expects that numerous additional banks will join the gpi initiative in the coming months. The ambition is for all countries to be live by the end of 2017.

Phased approach

Next to the design of the second phase of SWIFT gpi, that is already underway focusing on additional digital capabilities and further enhancements such as ‘a rich payment data service’, for its third gpi phase SWIFT started exploring the potential of new technologies such as Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), including blockchain, through a Proof of Concept (PoC).

SWIFT Blockchain PoC

Launched in January 2017 with six founding banks the SWIFT Blockchain PoC initiative, designed to validate/explore whether blockchain can be used by banks to improve the reconciliation of their international nostro accounts (these are accounts that a bank holds in a foreign currency in another bank to handle international financial transactions for their customers) (these are accounts that a bank holds in a foreign currency in another bank to handle international financial transactions for their customers) in real –time, optimising their global liquidity. At its core, the PoC builds on SWIFT’s rulebook as part of the intraday liquidity standard gpi.

This SWIFT Blockchain PoC initiative aims to help banks overcome significant challenges in monitoring and managing their international nostro accounts, which are crucial to the facilitation of cross border payments.

“Whilst existing DLTs are not currently mature enough for cross-border payments, this technology, bolstered by some additional features from SWIFT, may be interesting for the associated account reconciliation,” “This PoC gives us the opportunity to test DLT and determine if it can be applied to this particular use case.” Wim Raymaekers, Head of Banking Market and SWIFT gpi at SWIFT

Characteristics

In developing the POC, SWIFT is leveraging the Hyperledger Fabric v1.0 technology, and combining it with key SWIFT assets, to bring it in line with the financial industry’s requirements.

“SWIFT will leverage its strong governance, PKI security scheme, BIC legal identifier framework and liquidity standards expertise to deliver a distinctive DLT PoC platform for the benefit of its community.” Damien Vanderveken, Head of R&D, SWIFTLabs and User Experience at SWIFT

The PoC application will use a private permissioned blockchain in a closed user group environment, with specific user profiles and strong data controls. User privileges and data access will be strictly governed. This to ensure that all the information related to nostro/vostro accounts is kept private. Only account owners and its correspondent banking partners will see the details.

Collaboration

SWIFT gpi member banks can apply to participate in this Blockchain PoC. Next to the 6 founding banks, another 22 banks have recently joined the SWIFT blockchain PoC. They include include:

ABN AMRO Bank; ABSA Bank; BBVA; Banco Santander; China Construction Bank; China Minsheng Banking; Commerzbank; Deutsche Bank; Erste Group Bank; FirstRand Bank; Intesa Sanpaolo; JPMorgan Chase; Lloyds Bank; Mashreq Bank; Nedbank; Rabobank; Société Générale; Standard Bank of South Africa; Standard Chartered Bank; Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation; UniCredit; Westpac Banking Corporation.

“Collaboration is the cornerstone of innovation,” “This new group of banks allows us to greatly extend the scope of multi-lateral testing of the blockchain application and thus adds considerable weight to the findings. We warmly welcome the new banks and look forward to their insights” says Wim Raymaekers, head of banking markets and SWIFT gpi at SWIFT.

Process

Moving forward, the SWIFT PoC Blockchain application will undergo testing, with the results scheduled to be published in September and presented at Sibos in Toronto in October. Working independently of the founding banks, the 22 institutions will act as a validation group to test in a deeper way the PoC’s Blockchain application, that is currently under development by SWIFT and the group of six founding banks. They will evaluate how the technology scales and performs.

Benefits

For banks

The potential business benefits ensuing from a successful SWIFT blockchain POC may be significant. If it proves to enable banks reconcile those nostro accounts more efficiently and in real time, that may lower costs and operational risk.

“The potential business benefits ensuing from the PoC are clear,” “If banks could manage their nostro account liquidity in real-time, it would allow them to accurately gauge how much money is required in each account at any given point, ultimately enabling them to free up significant funds for other investments.” Damien Vanderveken, head of R&D, SWIFTLab and UX at SWIFT.

It brings together banks worldwide who want to offer an enhanced cross-border payments experience to their corporate clients. By being part of SWIFT gpi, banks may improve the quality of their correspondent relationships and networks, helping to reduce risks and management costs and improve compliance.

“Transparency is key to a good end-to-end client experience. SWIFT gpi is a significant step in the evolution of correspondent banking, which remains the primary means through which cross-border payments are delivered worldwide. Bank of America Merrill Lynch is pleased to be working with like-minded institutions around the world to better serve each other and our respective customers.” states Greg Murray, head of Global Product Management for High Value Payments and FI/NBFI Products in Global Transaction Services at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

For corporate treasurers

SWIFT gpi may enable corporates engaged in international trade to get paid for services, or delivery of goods, in a more timely fashion, enabling a faster supply chain process. It also enables a more accurate reconciliation of payments and invoices, optimizes liquidity with improved cash forecasts and reduces exposure to FX risks with same-day processing of funds in the beneficiary’s time zone.

“Being part of SWIFT gpi, and working with our industry counterparts, is giving correspondent banks a platform to examine and refine current processes, and to collaborate and explore different, more efficient ways of doing things. Ultimately, our clients will benefit most from this initiative,” Kent Marais, head of TPS product management at Standard Bank SA.

SWIFT and the banks have designed the gpi services so that banks have flexibility in how they offer the new services. They can deliver the gpi service in very different ways. Services could potentially include enhanced invoice presentment and reconciliation to facilitate financial supply chains, exchange of supply chain documentation to improve global trade, exchange and interactive enquiry of account and processing conditions to improve end-to-end straight through processing, and providing additional party and transaction information to support compliance and sanctions screening of cross-border payments.

Enhanced cross-border payment service

“SWIFT has addressed several of the pain points corporates have had with cross-border payments,” “Changes to existing corporate payments infrastructures should be very limited, if any. So hopefully, corporates won’t need to make any major investments to benefit from smoother cross-border payments.” says Magnus Carlsson, AFP’s manager of treasury and payments

Given the size of the number of banks and corporates participating in SWIFT gpi, the SWIFT Blockchain PoC may face the challenge of scalability. If that could be solved in a successful way it may be another prove of the viability of blockchain and DLT to enhance cross-border payments.

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

More on blockchain from this author:

Blockchain: accelerated activity in trade finance

Blockchain and derivatives: Re-imagining the industry

The digital trade chain: The blockchain train is rolling

Please feel free to visit the treasuryXL/articles page to see more articles.

Graphs with no time line – why and how

| 7-8-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

A key role within the Treasury function is providing forecasts to the directors and management. Graphs are a frequently used tool of course.
When constructing graphs it is normal to put time on the horizontal x axis and read the prices from left to right – from old to new. Visually, this appeals to us as we normally read from left to right. However, when the price does not change much for a long period of time the graph no longer looks fluid – there is a period of activity, followed by a long period of almost standing still, followed by another period of activity. To try and eliminate this period of inactivity whilst still presenting the data requires an approach where sequential time is removed from the equation. This brings us to the last article in this series.

The following two graphs ignore time and focus purely on changes in the price that have been filtered to meet specific criteria.

Renko Charts

Prices are represented by blocks – hollow for upward movements and solid for price falls.

Every block has a predefined value – if we were showing interest rates a block could represent 5 basis points. If we had an upward price movement this means that the following upward block can only been drawn once prices have risen more than 5 basis points from the last block. If the price moved up 4 basis points and then dropped by 3 basis points, no additional blocks would be added to the graph.

Blocks are plotted at a 45 degree angle showing upward and downward sloping price changes.
Price reversals are shown when prices have moved more than 2 blocks in the opposite direction. Yet again if we had an upward slope and the price was 1.25 (our blocks are set to 0.05 or 5 basis points) we would require a downward movement of more than 0.15 (15 basis points) to 1.10 to draw 2 solid blocks downwards.

What remains is a very smooth representation of price movements with a uniform value for every block, whilst filtering out smaller movements that have been filtered out by the conditions set on block size.

Point and Figure Charts

Price changes are represented by vertical columns – X’s for rising prices and O’s for falling prices.
As with Renko charts, the X’s and O’s have a predetermined size and a price reversal is shown when prices change by 3 boxes as opposed to 2 on a normal Renko chart. When direction changes a new column is drawn to the right of the present column. Otherwise, the same criteria is applied to both charts except point and figure show true vertical columns as opposed to 45 degree lines.

So why would someone look at prices in this particular way? Such a chart does not necessarily show the latest price – the predefined filters ensure that only price changes that meet the criteria are shown.

The main advantages include:

A constant filter that reduces the noise associated with normal time charts
Analysis is based only on movement – not on time
Perceived support and resistance levels are easier to see
The current trend is very clear to see

All the techniques shown in this series are applicable to everyday analysis and everyone has their favourite approach. Some like to see all data, whilst others prefer to see filtered, smoother data. The eternal question when looking at charts and seeing the current trend is to ask “where will the price go?” Initially, the immediate answer is that price will follow the current trend until such time as it does not anymore. This might seem a cheap flippant answer, but it is the truth. We have firmly established that we need to know the price in the past to determine if the present price movement is in a clearly established trend. If we knew nothing about the price in the past it would be pure guesswork to say which way the price would go?

We could still be wrong however, but at least we can establish why and how we made our opinion.

No chart or charting system can clearly determine what the future price will be with 100 per cent accuracy. By following the trend we can at least say what the current market direction is, without being able to clarify, purely on price, when the market will change direction.

Charts that eliminate time make it easier to see where the top and bottom of the market prices have been established. Therefore, if we are in an upward trend and approaching a market high that has been reached twice before, we can state with a reasonable amount of confidence that we are approaching a level that the market has tested twice before but not been able to break above. This would imply, on a technical analysis, that there is perceived resistance in the market to taking the price above the previous high.

However, a word of caution when using charts.
The best analogy I have ever heard for not relying 100 per cent on charts is as follows:

Would you sit behind the steering wheel of a vehicle and drive forward whilst the windscreen was blacked out and only have the rear view mirror to show you where you have been and only have that information to decide when you had to steer?

There is no system that can guarantee telling you what the future price will be. Analysis has to be taken with a pinch of salt but, any market professional should be able to perform analysis. If you can not analyse then you can not predict.

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

You might have missed the first two articles of this series and can find them here:

Treasury for non-treasurers: Data analysis and forecasting – seeing the future by looking at the past (Part I)

Treasury for non-treasurers: Data analysis and forecasting – Seeing the future by looking at the past (Part II)

Re-inventing treasury workflows: Smart Treasury

While the role of the treasurer is changing, it becomes increasingly challenging to maintain the current workflows and simultaneously take on new demanding tasks. One of these often manual and time-consuming tasks is risk management. As seen in, among others, this year’s Global Treasury Benchmark Survey of PwC, the registration and management of financial instruments stands among the top 3 challenges on the agenda of the surveyed treasurers. In this article, we take a more in-depth look at possible optimizations in some key treasury workflows.

Example FX management workflow

Hedging your FX exposure risk made easy

A common problem is the lack of visibility on the existing (global/local) FX exposure risk.
In order to calculate the FX transaction risk, transactional data from the TMS & ERP systems need to be consolidated effectively. Typically, this happens to be a (very) painful exercise. With Cashforce, however, using our off-the-shelf connectors (for ERP & TMS) and our full drill-down capabilities, you have all FX exposures at your fingertips.

FX Exposure Management – Current positions & exposures

But there is more to it. Imagine that linked to your FX exposure, an automated proposal of the most relevant FX deal would be generated to properly hedge this risk. A grin from ear to ear you say?

FX Exposure Management – Suggested hedge

And what about forecasting FX exposures? It’s now all within reach!

FX Exposure Management – Future positions & exposures

Whether you choose to take on an intercompany loan, a plain vanilla FX forward or another more exotic derivative product, chosen deals could then be automatically passed on to your deal transaction platform, to effectively execute the deal without any hassle. After execution, deals will automatically flow back into the system. Consequently, a useful summary/overview will be generated to effectively manage all your financial instruments.

Workflow integrated cash forecast

Finally, integrated cash management

New financial instruments / deals will generate a set of related cash flows. Ideally, these are directly integrated in your cash flow forecasts. In Cashforce, this data is automatically integrated within the cash flow forecast module, and will be put into a dedicated cash flow category. Learn more one how to set up an effective cash forecast in this article or this webinar.

Cash flow forecast overview

The analysis possibilities are now limitless, thanks to the ability to drill down to the very transactional-level details. The real number crunchers strike gold here: the analysis features open doors to unlimited in-depth analysis and comparison of various scenarios (E.g. the simulated effects of various exchange rate movements).

Drill-down to the transaction level

Using our big data engine, the delivery of rich and highly flexible reporting is facilitated. It’s fair to say that the typical SQL server (which currently 95% of the TMS systems use) can’t hold a candle to this. Through an advanced ‘self-service’ interface, users can drill down completely into respective amortization tables, historical transactions and effortlessly create customized reports and dashboards. We’ll talk more about why we believe Big Data engines are crucial for any Treasury software in our next blog.

Integration with ERPs & payment platforms

Next to this, Cashforce will automatically generate the accounting entries (in the format of your ERP/accounting system) related to your deals. The appropriate payment files will be generated in a similar fashion.

So…

As might be clear after reading this article, we strongly believe that integrated data flows & a Big Data engine are the foundation of a new type of Treasury Management System that runs like clockwork and can serve effective treasury departments, but also renewed finance/controlling/FP&A departments.

You are curious to hear more about effective treasury management? We’ve recently recorded a webchat on how to set up an efficient cash flow forecast process.

Nicolas Christiaen

Managing Partner at Cashforce

Bitcoins or banks, who is taking care of the business?

| 2-8-2017 | Hans de Vries |

Banks have long been target of wild spread ideas that their role as facilitator in the (inter) national money transaction industry will soon be overtaken by new Fintech initiatives like PayPal, Bitcoin and recently Ethereum. The idea behind these new technologies is that the Trusted Third Party (TTP) role of the conventional banks which is crucial for the operational day to day operations of the economic systems can be overtaken by the new block chain technology. Main advantages are clear: transactions are no longer limited by timing (no dependency on the operational boundaries of clearing houses, cut-off times of banks per currency, immediate processing etc), account opening procedures at the banks, the costs involved in maintaining accounts and transactions themselves etc.

The recent Ransomware attacks, that had an enormous impact on numerous companies and governmental institutions at a global level, showed however a less favorable aspect of this new technology. Due to its lack of control on the specifics of account ownership, Bitcoin proved to be the ideal means to collect the ransom money the victims have to pay to free their systems. This piracy trend will in my view also seriously hamper the future development of these sort of bank independent transaction mechanisms. Even more threatening for the Bitcoin development are the recent crypto robbery cases in which millions of dollars’ worth balances were stolen from the accounts. These incidents show the vital role of the banks as TTP since most banks are obliged to deliver their services according to the rules and regulations of their national and super-national banks. As indicated before, this means that for opening accounts lots of formalities have to be endured (the KYC rules are in some countries stretched to the absolute max). At the same time., due to the international regulations the control on international transactions are very extensive and therefore at the same time very costly for the banks. Every violation of the international code book on transactions to banned countries can have severe financial consequences for the banks involved. An last but not least banks have to maintain an international network of correspondent banks to make sure that the international transactions reach their beneficiaries in a reasonable timeframe and at reasonable costs.

This whole system has of course been developed to gain maximum control on transaction flows locally and worldwide. However it also provides the trust needed to be able to deal with (inter) national trade flows crucial to our economic day to day operations. As long as there are no ways to secure your transactions and balances in a bitcoin like environment as most transaction banks are providing today, Bitcoins remain a very interesting technological experience but will in no way replace the role of banks as TTP shortly.

Hans de Vries

Treasury/Cash Management Consultant

More articles of this author:

Will the European banks strike back?

The Euro from a treasury perspective

New norms in banking: More than 30 new areas emerging. Pick your fights!

Moving Averages – how to calculate them

| 1-8-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

In the second article in this series we will be looking at different types of moving averages. Moving averages are used to determine the current trend of a price. They filter out the extremes within a range of data and present a smoother picture. They are almost exclusively calculated using the arithmetic mean. Some studies have been done using the median, though no advantages have been discovered. The following 3 methods are the most common approaches. In all following examples we shall assume an average calculated over a continuous series of 10 data points.

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

We take 10 consecutive values and calculate the simple arithmetic mean. When we calculate the next value we drop the oldest value in the series and add the newest value. We are constantly using the most current data in our calculation. Every data point receives the same weighting i.e. 10 per cent of the complete series. Whilst being very easy to calculate criticism is levelled at the fact that all data points receive the same weighting. This can distort the average when the market is volatile – more recent data is closer to the true market price.

Weighted Moving Average (WMA)

Here the 10 data points are assigned different weights, usually based on a simple mathematical progression. The 10^th data point (most recent data) would be multiplied by 10; the 9^th data point (second most recent data) would be multiplied by 9; etc. The product of these calculations would then be divided by 55 to produce a weighted average. This weighted average applies more importance on the most recent prices and, therefore, more closely match the current price.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

This is another form of a weighted average, but the weighting factors decrease exponentially. As such, whilst the older data points decrease exponentially in value, they never stop. Therefore, this average encompasses considerably more data than the previous 2 examples whilst still being an average calculated with only 10 data points.

The results

EMA is more responsive than SMA. An EMA graph will accelerate faster, turn quicker and fall faster than a SMA graph. This is due to the weighting given to the most recent data. However, these are all lagging indicators – they will always be behind the price. Furthermore, if a market is trapped in a very small trading range the averages will not be as smooth as the actual data. One of the main goals of using averages is to see if prices break out of a range and start a new trend.

Moving averages can be used simply to see what the current trend is. They can be further used by applying different 2 moving averages (one for 10 days and another for 50 days) to ascertain the change in momentum by 2 different time lines. But they all lag the market data.

Most of the time prices will tend to concentrate in a small area, with occasional larger movements up or down establishing the next area of consolidation. Is there an alternative way to design moving averages that take this into consideration?

Adaptive Moving Average (AMA)

Instead of just weighting the data, AMA also look at the price volatility. When prices are in a small range AMA will notice this lack of volatility and provide a trendline that is almost flat. As prices break out of the range AMA will move quickly up or down, depending on the change in prices. The advantages of AMA are that, visually, when prices are reasonably flat (little volatility) a clear flat line is shown so that even if the actual market price is lower than the AMA, it is clear that it is still within a range. As AMA is more sensitive to volatility, it can contain more data about the current trend. An initial breakout from a tight range will result in a very steep line for AMA. The trend can continue, but AMA will clearly show earlier than other averages when the trend is weakening. The only basic problem with AMA is the calculation – it is far more complex to calculate and is not so intuitive when you come to explain it to someone who does not know it.

As stated earlier, all moving averages suffer from lag – they are behind the actual price curve. Our last example is an average that attempts to remove this lag, whilst being more reactive to the current price.

Hull Moving Average (HMA)

Initially, a WMA is taken for 10 data points. Then a WMA is taken for half this period (5 data points) and is calculated with the 5 newest data points. The difference between these 2 is then combined with the WMA for the shorter period to arrive at a new average – the HMA.

The HMA is faster, smoother and eliminates most of the lag that is present in the other moving averages. In fact, it most closely resembles the actual market data.

All these averages are used to attempt to show what the trend is in the actual price, whilst filtering out the noise from all the prices, and presenting the data in a smooth form. Yet again, as previously mentioned, a change in the underlying fundamentals of the price will always have more impact on the price than any form of technical analysis.

However, if we concede that for a large majority of time prices are just trending, a moving average can be used to try and predict when the prices have moved out of their range and are on a new path with fresh momentum until that slows down and the following range is established.

When charting data we need to appreciate the amount of data we will be producing. Even if we just use the price at the start of the day, or the end of the day, we will accumulate at least 255 data points every year. If prices are in a small range, then more data is added to the chart series to provide a more dynamic picture. But this can make the visual data more cluttered once we include the actual data and 1 or 2 moving averages. Would it not be better if we could eliminate time and just look at price?

In the last article in this series I will look at 2 common methods of showing price data devoid of timelines.