7 steps on how to make Cash Flow forecast a success

| 15-02-2021 | Bas Kolenburg

Last year was a good example to remind organizations that cash flow forecasting is important, although, very little were prepared for the unprecedented, sharp and abrupt changes in turnover and cash flow due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

CFO’s have been asking:

  • Where is the cash?
  • Are we prepared for all the contingencies?
  • Do we know how our cash flow will hold up for the rest of the year?
  • Will we meet the covenants set in our credit facilities?

In many treasuries, cash flow forecasting is a well-established basic core process, but from my experience it is often a “struggle” where the results do not always outweigh the efforts. Why is this process so difficult and more importantly: how can you make the cash flow forecast process a success?

Here are 7 steps that will help your organization:

1. Set your purpose and the horizon

Allow yourself to describe what the purpose of the cash flow forecast is as this will define also the horizon and the data that you need to build your forecast. The purpose will also be the guiding framework what level of tolerances you are prepared to accept.
Setting up a cash flow forecasting for quarterly reporting of covenants or to prepare for short term liquidity shortfalls means a different horizon and sometimes also a different set of data. Horizons can vary as much from the ‘standard’ 13-weeks to monthly or quarterly to even years. With a longer horizon, the level of accuracy will diminish.

2. Identify the cash flow drivers

This is the most essential and valuable step in the process as the right identification will largely determine the success of your forecasting.

    1. Where and when do we receive cash inflows and what will be our expected cash outflows?”
    2. From what sources can we derive the data, how predictable are they, in what currencies?
    3. And in which entities or what bank accounts will these cash flows occur?

Prepare a list of all (forecasted) cash in- and outflows and label them with priority, currency, predictability and identify in what entity and from what source you will be able to find actual and forecasted data.

3. Collect systematic and consistent data from all cash flow drivers

As you have, in the previous step, identified what will drive your cash flow, then we reach the really difficult part and that is obtaining reliable data on actuals and forecasts on these drivers.
You often hear : “I do not know when our clients will pay our invoices” and “If we win the tender then contract turnover will be X, however timing of the tender and outcome is unsure” and “Forecasted volumes of our product, I can give you but prices will be determined at the sale on spot basis”.
Don’t confuse sales and profit with cash. Most organizations seem very well equipped and organized to close each accounting period their books and forecast somehow the main profit and loss items going forward, however translating that into cash items, in the right currency with the right timing is not always easy.

My experience is that the process of obtaining these data gives you great insights on how cash driven the company really is and what role cash is playing in the KPI and rewards throughout the organization. You will often find that cash is, except for the treasury responsible, not on top of each minds.
Find also the right balance in detail of the data you want to forecast, as you can define a lot of cash flow categories, but that also means that you will need to label your actuals for all these categories. Manual labelling is often undoable (unless you have unlimited resources) and automating this labelling with tools is often easier said than done.

4. Focus on cash balance visibility

Your starting point for your cash flow forecast is the cash balance you have today and without adequate cash balance visibility on your today’s cash balance you will not be able to project future cash balances. Cash visibility means that you have access to – real time- information of all cash balances in your organization. When you have 1 or 2 banks, the Electronic Banking tools of these 1 or 2 banks will provide you all the information that you need. However, often certain bank accounts are managed on a decentralized level and information on these accounts are provided only at the close of the reporting period. Multi-banking tools that function as an information overlay can help you to overcome these kind of situations but you can also set up you own cash balance reporting consolidation.

5. Include analysis for variances

Analyzing the actuals versus your forecasts gives you a better insight how well the predictions have been and which data were reliable in the previous forecasting period and which were not. The sources that provided these data need to receive feedback on the variances from you to understand what was causing this difference so that their data can be improved going forward. Otherwise, it is only your problem. Sometimes a sort of “carrot and stick” feedback can be used to strengthen the reliability of the data collecting and create co-ownership for the process.

6. Prepare for scenarios

For treasurers, being prepared for the unknown is part of their DNA. So setting up scenario’s next to a base case in the cash flow forecast is essential to understand the headroom and even more important, what are the main drivers affecting the headroom. Because one thing is certain: Covid-19 will not be the last crisis they we will face.

7. Let systems work for you

There is no one-size-fits-all solution. Each process and tool must be tailored to the needs and objectives of each specific business. Many organizations work with Excel sheets because of the flexibility, it’s easy to use, the low costs and because it can manage massive amounts of data. Basically there is no problem with that, except when you would like to follow the steps, I described above, in more complex and multi-currency environment, then Excel will fall short to “let systems work for you”.
Nowadays there are multiple solutions (in various price ranges) for tools that can support your cash flow forecasting process from dedicated cash flow forecasting tools to more generic treasury systems and also payment hubs and banks provide (parts of) the solutions to support the cash flow forecasting process. Sometimes the tools include also artificial intelligence features that use actual company data to determine and support the forecasts. But often the tool is just a blank template sheet that needs to be filled with the actual and forecasted data. Then the added value is limited as “garbage in” means often also “garbage out” .

Conclusion

My advice is to revisit the cash flow forecast process in your own organization with the above mentioned 7 steps. If not ideal, there might be a strong business case to change (parts) of the process to be better prepared for the future.

 

 

Bas Kolenburg

View my profile

 

 

 

Looking for an Interim Treasurer

12-02-2021 | Treasurer Search | treasuryXL

Our Partner Treasurer Search is looking for an Interim Treasurer (m/f) for a successful infrastructure company with a global presence.

Tasks Interim Treasurer

Our client grows fast, there is a lot to do. Experienced treasury and funding colleagues are present. Main tasks will be:

  • Operational cash & liquidity management including the maintenance of the global banking infrastructure;
  • Treasury support in infrastructure transactions, including interest and FX risk assessments and mitigation;
  • Various transactions, including FX and interest hedging;
  • Insurance issues management.

Ideal Interim Treasurer

The ideal candidate for this position will quickly be able to connect with all internal and external stakeholders. She can ask the proper questions about business operations & projects and knows how treasury should be involved. She will take responsibility and, together with her colleagues, cover regular and project tasks. She is able to do so because of her relevant education and corporate treasury track record, preferably also in smaller organisations.

Our Client

Our client is a successful infrastructure company with a global presence.

Remuneration and Process

The expected hourly candidate fee for this project lies between €80 and €100. Our client will search for a permanent candidate for this position. The expected minimum period is 3 months.

Contact person



Pieter de Kiewit

T: (0850) 866 798
M: (06) 1111 9783
E: [email protected]


 

Location

Tilburg

 

APPLY HERE

How do Foreign currency exchange rates work?

11-02-2021 | treasuryXL | XE |

Ever checked the rates and wondered what’s happened to give you the rate you see? Here we break it down for you—and try to make it as simple and painless as possible.
If you’re traveling abroad for a holiday, need to pay for a school fee in another country or you want to buy an item from a foreign country,  you will need a currency exchange to carry out your transaction. But how can you tell the exact amount your currency is worth when it is exchanged into a foreign currency? And who’s setting them?

For the first question, you can easily do that on Xe’s Currency Converter. The second question? That’ll take a little more time to understand. We’ll try to make it as quick (and painless) as possible for you!

Currency exchange rates: what they are, and how they work

Exchange rates indicate how much your currency is worth if exchanged into a foreign currency. For example, on December 30, 2020, 1 U.S. dollar was equal to 0.748067 British pounds.

Currency exchange transactions happen 24 hours a day, seven days a week in a market that transact over $6 trillion a day. Exchange rates are constantly fluctuating as foreign currencies are actively traded. Various trading activities boost or lower the values of different currencies.

Institutions and traders buy and sell foreign currencies in the global market 24 hours a day. For a trade to be completed, at least one currency must be exchanged for another. For example, in order to buy the U.S. dollar another currency is required for payment. Whatever currency is used, either the euros, yen, or Canadian dollar, etc. will create a currency pair. For example, if you use U.S. dollars (USD) to buy the Japanese yen, the exchange rate will be for the JPY/USD pair.

How are international exchange rates determined?

Foreign exchange rates are determined in various countries using two key methods: flexible and fixed rate. While flexible exchange rates are constantly changing, fixed rates hardly ever change. (Though you probably figured that out from their names.)

Flexible exchange rates

The foreign exchange market or forex determines most currency exchange rates. These rates are known as flexible exchange rates. These rates are constantly changing from one moment to the next. Flexible exchange rates are influenced by the open market through demand and supply on world currency markets. As such, if the demand for a specific currency is high, the value of such currency will most likely increase. But if the demand of a particular currency falls, its value in the foreign exchange market falls too.

Most major global currencies often have flexible exchange rates. These include the British pounds, Mexican pesos, European euros, Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, and others.

The government of these countries and their central banks do not interfere to keep their exchange rates fixed. Though their policies can affect rates in the long run, for most of these nations their governments can only impact and not regulate exchange rates.

Fixed exchange rates

Countries that use fixed or pegged foreign exchange rates do so via their central bank. These countries set their rate against another major world currency like the United States dollar, euro or yen.

To regulate and maintain the fixed exchange rate, the government of these countries buy and sell their own currency against the foreign currency to which it is pegged. Only the governments of these countries can determine when their foreign exchange rates should change.

Countries that use the fixed exchange rate method include Saudi Arabia and China. These countries ensure that their central banks have sufficient amounts of money in their foreign currency reserves to determine the amount their currency is worth in the foreign exchange market.

Okay, but what causes the rates to change?

Rates change when currency values change. There are several key factors that affect the movement and values of local and foreign currencies. These include three key factors known as:

  1. Interest rates

  2. Money supply

  3. Financial stability

Due to these factors, the demand for a particular country’s currency, depends on what is happening in that country.

Interest rates

The interest rates a country’s central bank is setting is a key factor that will influence the country’s exchange rate. Higher interest rates have positive impacts on the value of the country’s currency. Investors are more likely to exchange their currency for one with higher interest rates, and then save it in that country’s bank to benefit from the higher interest rate.

Money supply

The money supply made available by a country’s central bank can influence the value of the currency in the foreign exchange market. For example, if there is too much money in circulation, there will be too much of it in exchange for very few goods.

Currency holders will most likely bid up the costs of goods and services which will trigger inflation. In the event that too much money is printed and in circulation in a particular country, it triggers hyperinflation and drives down their currency value in the foreign exchange market. Cash holders prefer to invest in countries with little or no inflation.

Financial stability

The financial stability and economic growth of a country can affect its foreign exchange rates. Investors are more likely to buy goods and services from countries with a strong and growing economy. This means they will need more of such a country’s currency to buy from them. this will increase the demand for such currency and ultimately boosts its value in the foreign exchange market.

If the economy of the country is in a bad shape, investors are less likely to trade with them. Investors are only interested in trading with countries that can provide gains from holding government bonds in that currency.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

 

 

 

Nomentia – Treasury Trends 2021

| 10-02-2021 | treasuryXL | Nomentia |

Recently, Nomentia held a webinar about the key Trends in Treasury and Cash Management. The recording of this webinar “Treasury Trends 2021” is now available for you on demand. Feel free to rewatch it as much as you like!

Watch The Webinar

About Nomentia

Nomentia is a Nordic powerhouse for global cash management. We believe in a world in which businesses can make the right decisions no matter how unpredictable the times are. Our SaaS-based platform offers solutions for cash forecasting and visibility, global payments with bank connectivity, reconciliation, in-house banking, guarantees, and FX dealing. We serve 2,300+ clients in over 100 countries processing more than 200 billion euros annually. Cash is king!

Webinar RMFI: The Corona pandemic, an accelerator of Behavioural Risk

| 08-02-2020 |

The Vrije Universiteit will host a free webinar “The Corona pandemic: an accelerator of Behavioral Risk”.

The webinar is for everybody to join and free of charge.

Date, time and registration

Date: 17 February, 2021

Start: 19:00 – 20:15 CEST

Register Now and safe your virtual seat

 

 

Become the next Treasury Mid & Back Office Manager

05-02-2021 | Treasurer Search | treasuryXL

Our Partner Treasurer Search is looking for a Treasury Mid & Back Office Manager for a globally operating company covering many markets with various offerings.

Tasks Treasury Mid & Back Office Manager

The set of tasks is not set, three prominent results areas are:

  • Smooth operations; leading a small team, being able to step in and role up the sleeves. Producing monthly, quarterly and annual treasury reports;
  • Subsidiary and leadership support; proactively knowing about what is happening within the organisation and around, analyzing results and help the company move forward;
  • Treasury infrastructure improvement; projects covering policies, TMS, documentation et cetera.

Ideal Treasury Mid & Back Office Manager

The ideal candidate for this position has an academic degree and at least five years’ experience in corporate treasury. As our client is constantly changing in a high tech market, we expect the candidate will have a flexible and curious mindset. Experience has shown that candidates with a hands-on and proactive approach to work are the successful ones in this team.

Our Client

Our client is a globally operating company covering many markets with various offerings. The treasury team in Amsterdam has steadily grown over the last years and completed a number of exciting projects. Ambitions and expectations are high. Employees are well educated, stay within the company and are result oriented.

Remuneration and Process

The expected base salary for this position is €60K, talented juniors or slightly overqualified candidates are invited to respond. For candidates who qualify and are interested, an extensive job description is available. Our client will not sponsor a work permit or move to the Amsterdam region.

Our client values diversity and pays attention to a very objective recruitment process. The Treasurer Test might be part of the recruitment process.

Contact person



Pieter de Kiewit

T: (0850) 866 798
M: (06) 1111 9783
E: [email protected]


 

Location

Amsterdam

 

APPLY HERE

Corporate Liquidity Forum: The Resilient Digital Treasury

| 04-02-2021 | Cashforce

Next week, our Partner Cashforce is speaking at Citi’s 2021 Corporate #Liquidity Forum: The Resilient Digital #Treasury Global Conference together with their client Kiera Agnew, assistant treasurer at Kellogg Company. During this event, Treasury Trends & Priorities, Cash & Liquidity Management, and more interesting Treasury Topics will be discussed. Don’t miss it!

? February 10th, 10am – 12pm EST (4pm – 6pm CET)

Key Topics include:

  • Economic Outlook
  • 2021 Treasury Trends & Priorities
  • Global Outlook for Liquidity Management
  • New Business Models and the Evolution of Treasury
  • Cash Flow and Real-Time Liquidity Innovation

 

For More Information and How to Register click HERE ?

 

 

 

How Do I Spot an Opportunity?

04-02-2021 | treasuryXL | XE |

There are a few signs and behavioral patterns that can indicate someone who would be a good fit to transfer money with XE.

Finding opportunities to turn prospects into Xe customers can be difficult. Though some people do have plans to transfer money overseas and may be in search of the right provider to facilitate their transfers, many other people as, and some may be perfectly satisfied using their bank or a wire transfer to send their money overseas. There are a few things that you can bring up in your discussions or keep your eyes (and ears) open for in order to make the search a little easier. Let’s talk about how you can find the right opportunities.

Spotting a potential opportunity

Though everyone is different, there are a few signs and behavioral patterns that can indicate someone who would be a good fit to transfer money with Xe.

There’s one question that reigns above all others: do they make international payments? This is the fundamental question, and the first one you should look to answer. Do they make international payments or deal with foreign currencies in any capacity? Then they are someone who could benefit from a fast, cost-effective, and easy-to-use money transfer solution.

Signs of a potential opportunity: individual edition

Individuals and businesses will have different signs, and different uses for money transfer. Some examples of people who fit this category include:

  • Clients living in other countries

  • Business people with clients who live overseas

  • Expats from another country

  • People who own property in another country

  • People who work with or get paid by a company in another country

  • People who have family overseas

  • People who have shares or dividends coming from another country

  • People receiving an inheritance, gift payments, or other sums of money from overseas

  • Individuals selling property with plans to relocate abroad

  • People purchasing goods from overseas

  • Workers on temporary overseas work secondments

  • People with overseas pensions

  • Account holders of multi-currency bank accounts.

Identifying someone who has a need for international money transfer is the first step. The next step is convincing them that they shouldn’t just use their local bank branch or the first provider they come across: they should use Xe.

There are two key areas to focus on:

  • Exchange rates

  • Bank costs associated with international payments.

Banks and other providers often set rates that favor themselves, not the client. In addition, these institutions often come with numerous additional fees (sometimes even hidden within the transaction). On the other hand, the Xe rate comes straight from the live currency markets, and is a true, honest reflection of the mid-market rate, with no hidden margins. In addition, there are no hidden fees with Xe: what your client sees is what they will get.

Signs of a potential business opportunity

Individuals aren’t the only ones who need money transfer; there are plenty of businesses who could benefit from working with Xe. Some examples of good opportunities include:

  • Clients with overseas offices

  • Businesses with a globally-located workforce

  • Managers of international payroll

  • Businesses that import or export

  • Offshore investors

  • Businesses with multi-currency bank accounts

  • Any business that sends and/or receives international payments.

Within the realm of international payments, there are a few common concerns that could be worth discussing further. Consider discussing:

  • Do they bill clients in your local currency or their local currency?

  • Do they talk about increased costs overseas, or decreased profits on exports?

  • Are they concerned with the bank costs associated with making international payments?

These questions can help you to better understand what they’re looking for from a money transfer and FX provider, whether it’s improving their profits, cutting out unnecessary costs, or ensuring that they aren’t exposed to FX risk when they make their international payments.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

 

 

 

Getting Granular: A Tool to dig deeper and Improve Cash Forecasts

03-02-2021 | Cashforce | treasuryXL |

Covid-19 shook the foundations of Cash Flow forecasting and Working Capital Management for companies facing uncertainty about revenues, vendor payments, appropriate inventory levels and adequate cash reserves.

  • At a recent NeuGroup virtual interactive session, one participant impressed others by describing how a Fintech solution provided by Cashforce a year earlier allowed his company to dig into the weeds of business operations, examining line-item details of cash flows to prepare for and absorb shocks to liquidity.
  • That ability helped treasury provide real value to the company when the internal spotlight landed on the team during the pandemic.

Digging into details: Cashforce opened a window to a more accurate cash picture by revealing what was going on across the business and how various moving ‘levers’ were rapidly changing, the treasurer said.

  • The technology tracked the granular details of cash flows and highlighted respective drivers that helped identify areas of business behaving normally and those under greater stress from delays in customer receipts.
  • The resulting insights facilitate setting baseline expectations and seeing potential roadblocks so that treasury teams can have productive conversations with operations teams about changes, new products, etc. so that business intelligence is layered into forecasts appropriately.

The velocity and veracity of data. Covid-19 has called more attention to the need for banking APIs and the harmonization of data feeds into a single analytical source. Real-time mandates are now the norm: Everyone wants payment information in real time, with consolidated cash positions at the press of a button. This greater level of urgency has driven the need for cash flow forensics and analytics.

  • 82% of participants polled have accelerated plans to automate and digitize treasury operations since the pandemic (see chart above for details).
  • Cashforce stressed that all processes surrounding cash flow and working capital optimization must be revisited to accomplish real-time goals. Across companies, they are seeing an emergence of a cash culture away from the heavy focus solely on earnings.

 

 

This shift requires links to AI models so treasury practitioners can determine cash flow drivers not easily spotted by the human eye because they are in the weeds of massive amounts of data.

The data is there; why can’t we get to it? Simply put by one member: Most treasury management systems (TMSs) are not designed to house the magnitude of transaction-level data nor provide the analytic capabilities needed for transparent cash forecasting and best-in-breed working capital analytics.

  • For example, not all TMSs are able to take in various data streams or extrapolate trends to build cash flow patterns into a cash forecast. For companies with multiple ERPs, the complexity and volume of data becomes exponentially difficult to manage and impossible to analyze manually.
  • Algorithms designed to roll up your sleeves for you and dig into transaction-level detail to predict trends and flag anomalies provide a structure for cash optimization and a safeguard for deviations that threaten liquidity.
  • Measure KPIs to move the needle. Automated calculations and daily reporting on key indicators through Cashforce tools allow for expedited metrics that enable smart decision making and facilitate improving working capital through analytics.

Wedded bliss: Marrying short-term direct to long-term indirect cash forecasts! Treasury and FP&A forecast disconnects are common sources of reconciliation tension across companies.

  • Cashforce uses a “rules engine” that takes ERP data to transform the indirect P&L components into direct cash flow drivers and calculate timing parameters based on historical trends.
  • One member inquired about the possibility of forecasting by purchase order and was pleased to hear that once the purchase order details were transferred into the system, algorithms calculate cash amounts and timing for both “open ended or closed” purchase orders, taking the headache out of what is often a guessing game.

 

 

 

The Case for a Global Payment Hub

02-02-2021 | treasuryXL | Kyriba |

Global corporate payments technology is changing at a rapid pace. So rapidly, in fact, that internal IT-managed platforms are not able to keep up and the challenges that ensue are left for the IT team to sort out.

These challenges include:

  • Insufficient Controls
    It is up to IT to protect assets from digitized fraud capabilities that are able to penetrate the standard four-eye principal and, in order to do so, IT will need to enhance controls.
  • Custom Banking Formats
    Each bank has its own specific requirements that, even within the same bank, may differ depending on payment type and bank branch location. The number of custom formats needed can make it difficult for IT to meet all global banking format customization requirements.
  • Infrastructure Costs
    The cost of building and maintaining payment connectivity infrastructure, especially given the customization requirements, can easily exceed what a company anticipated.
  • Delayed Project
    Established bank connections will need to be rebuilt as ERPs migrate to the cloud, which can greatly delay the project. And, rebuilding the connection is often made more difficult as employees leave and retire, taking with them the tribal knowledge of how the original architecture was deployed.

Let’s evaluate some of these in the context of the return on investment (ROI) your organisation would achieve by deploying a connectivity as a service global payment hub.

Enhancing Controls

The most common vulnerabilities to fraud include technical, process and simple human mistakes – and, worst case scenario, internal collusion. All of these become significantly more vulnerable when corporations rely on internally built systems and processes that depend on human control workflows with multiple checkpoints.

Today’s fraudsters are more sophisticated, able to easily penetrate corporate infrastructure and pass internal human dependent control workflows. They utilize social networks to penetrate organisations with phishing schemes that include email, as well as deep fake voice simulation software via phone that can sound exactly like your CFO or CEO requesting payment execution.

The best payment hub solution will aid the human dependent controls with machine learning technology, bringing to their attention anomalies that they must further investigate.  The solution must be able to keep up with technical assets at the fraudster’s disposal – for example, based on history alerts related to banking change and volume as well as OFAC exception.  Payment hubs with machine learning capabilities have demonstrated the ability to reduce corporate fraud exposure by at least 70%.

Payment Connectivity Complexities  

Global banking format customization requirements are extremely complex with very limited, if any, corporate tribal knowledge related to the technical architecture and deployment. Each bank has their own specific requirements. In many cases, there may even be differences of formats within the same bank depending on branch locations. The cost of building and maintaining payment connectivity infrastructure given the customization requirements can be in the millions of dollars.

Payment hubs eliminate this cost in several ways:

  • IT no longer has to manage bank connectivity with outsourced development and maintenance of bank payment formats to the hub solution. Developing this internally can take up to 9 months for each bank at a cost of up to $150K+ per bank, not including any ERP consultant fees.  A payment hub solution will be able to deploy connectivity within weeks and provide 24/7/365 maintenance and support at a fraction of the cost.
  • Multiple systems that previously sent payments to banks can be consolidated down to one. IT will only have to manage one format which is to the payment hub.
  • Treasury can optimise banking services and remove duplication caused by the multitude of systems (including treasury and ERPs) that connected to the banks. This will standardise and enhance controls and auditability of internal workflows.

ERP Cloud Transformation

If you are considering an ERP cloud transformation or are in the process of the transition, all of the bank connectivity that is established in the current environment will have to be re-built.  Given the considerations highlighted earlier tied to the complexities, re-building all of the connections internally will be costly and risk go-live.

Connectivity as a service with the right payment hub will de-risk and accelerate cloud transformation projects. In fact, payment hub solutions provide a more than 80% improvement in time-to-value related to payment go live. This return on investment is inclusive of internal man-hour efforts, external consultant fee elimination, as well as the speed of bank on boarding timelines from up to 9 months to only a few weeks.

In conclusion, payment hubs enhance controls and keep up with the ever-changing fraud environment, eliminate any risk tied to business continuity due to internal infrastructure or tribal knowledge, and finally enable a successful ERP cloud transformation deployment eliminating any risk to internal timelines or objectives.