2 most common financial risks faced by a company

| 16-6-2017 | Victor Macrae | treasuryXL |

You might visit this site, being a treasury professional with years of experience in the field. However you could also be a student or a businessman wanting to know more details on the subject, or a reader in general, eager to learn something new. The ‘Treasury for non-treasurers’ series is for readers who want to understand what treasury is all about. From our expert Victor Macrae we received another article on risk management, of which we thought that it adds some extra aspects to the earlier article on riskmanagement. 

An important task of a treasurer is to fully understand the financial risks that impact the firm. Two risks faced by most companies are interest rate risk and foreign exchange risk. Both risks can negatively impact the firm’s financial statements and can ultimately even lead to bankruptcy!

Interest rate risk

Interest rate risk originates from interest bearing liabilities. Most firms have loans. In the case the interest rate is variable, the interest paid varies according to an agreed market rate, such as Euribor or Libor. The risk is that the market rate will increase to a level where the firm is not able to pay its interest payments any more. In that case the firm is in default and theoretically the loan provider can request full loan redemption. In practice the loan provider is now in charge and will increase the margins on the loan as a result of the higher counterparty risk and also other charges such as fees of lawyers will be due. In order to mitigate interest rate risk a firm can use fixed rate loans or use variable rate loans in combination with interest rate derivatives such as interest rate swaps or options.

Foreign exchange risk

Foreign exchange risk occurs when a firm has subsidiaries abroad or when it transacts in a foreign currency. Suppose a firm with the euro as home currency sells products in Japanese Yen (JPY). Payment is due in three months’ time. If the JPY has weakened against the euro with 20% when the payment is due after three months, the revenues in euro are 20% lower. If the margin on the sales was 15%, then the negative foreign exchange rate change has led to a loss of 5%. Foreign exchange rate risk can be mitigated by various means, such a moving production to countries where the firm sell its products in order to match the currency of cash in- and outflows. Furthermore, derivatives such as forwards or options can be used to mitigate foreign exchange risk.

3 steps

The first step in managing interest rate risk and foreign exchange risk is to examine how the firm is exposed to these risks. The second step is to measure the impact of the volatility of interest and currency rates to which the firm is exposed on its financial statements. In the third step, if the effects are serious, the treasurer should consider which of the available options for risk mitigation best suits the firm.

Victor Macrae

 

 

Victor Macrae

Owner of Macrae Finance

 

 

 

Managing treasury risk: Interest rate risk (Part II)

|31-1-2017 | Lionel Pavey |

 

There are lots of discussions concerning risk, but let us start by trying to define what we mean by risk. In my first article of this series I wrote about risk managment and what the core criteria are for a solid risk management policy. Today I want to focus on interest rate risk. There are 4 types of interest rate risk.

 

Absolute Interest Rate Risk

Absolute interest rate risk occurs when we are exposed to directional changes in rates – either up or down. This is the main area of rate risk that gets monitored and analysed within a company as it is immediately visible and has a potential effect on profit.

Yield Curve Risk

Yield curve risk occurs from changes between short term rates and long term rates, together with changes in the spreads between the underlying periods. Under normal circumstances a yield curve would be upward sloping if viewed as a graph. The implication is that longer term rates are higher than short term rates because of the higher risk to the lender and less liquidity in the market for long dated transactions. Changes to the yield curve (steepening or flattening) can have an impact on decisions for investment and borrowings, leading to changes in profit.

Refunding or Reinvestment Risk

Refunding or reinvestment risk occurs when borrowings or investments mature at a time when interest rates are not favourable. Borrowings or investments are rolled over at rates that had not been forecast leading to a potential loss on projects or investments.

Embedded Options Risk

Embedded options are provisions in securities that cannot be traded separately from the security and grant rights to either the issuer or the holder that can introduce additional risk. Benefits for the issuer can include a call option, a right to repay before maturity without incurring a penalty, an interest rate cap. Benefits for the holder can include a put option, a conversion right via convertible bonds, an interest rate floor.

 

An attempt can be made to calculate the interest rate risk on either a complete portfolio or on individual borrowings or investment. This is done by comparing the stated interest rate to the actual or projected interest rate. Methods include:

  1. Mark to market
  2. Parallel shift in the whole yield curve
  3. Tailor-made shift in the whole yield curve
  4. Duration, DV01, Convexity
  5. Value at Risk (VaR)

These are all forms of quantitative analysis and well recognized. Personally I am of the opinion that VaR is not a very good method for interest rates. Interest rates do not display normal Gaussian distribution – they do not resemble a normal bell curve. Interest rate distribution curves display fat tails compared to normal statistical models.

Financial products that are commonly used to manage interest rate risk include FRAs, Futures, Caps, Floors, Collars, Options, Interest Rate Swaps and Swaptions.

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

 

 

 

More articles from this author:

Safety of Payments

The treasurer and data

The impact of negative interest rates

How long can interest rates stay so low?

 

Managing interest rate and liquidity risk

| 06-09-2016 | Rob Söentken |

skyscrapertxl

 

Funding is one of the key focus areas of a treasurer. There are numerous dimensions to funding:
1. Assessing amount and timing of cashflows
2. Arranging access to funding
3. Developing and implementing hedging policy
4. Optimizing funding cost and risk

Assessing amount and timing of cashflows

Assessing the amount and timing of cashflows is a continuous process. Because needs can change both in short and long term.

Arranging access to funding

Matching funding needs with supply from financial institutions is also a continuous process. The typical approach would be to match tenors, but immediate access to cash is critical for the survival of any entity. It could be considered to arrange longer term financing, even for short term (revolving) funding needs. The downside is that long term access is more expensive than short term access. This may be acceptable, but if the spread between borrowing and lending excess cash is too wide, it will become very unattractive to borrow for long tenors.

Developing and implementing hedging policy

To ensure the treasurer works within the boundaries of his mandate, he has to develop a hedging policy which must be documented (‘on paper’) and approved by his management. The document should describe the whole area of funding, to ensure both the creation and hedging of risks are described.

Optimizing funding cost and risk

The main focus drifts towards reducing funding cost. The funding market typically has a steep cost curve, meaning that rates are higher for longer tenors. This results from a steep ‘risk free’ curve and / or from a steep ‘credit spread’ curve. Which often brings entities to borrow for the cheapest tenor possible, being monthly, weekly or even overnight funding. Funding for very short tenors creates the considerable risk that can cause a company to run into a liquidity crisis, in case access to funding disappears. How to deal with this dilemma?

The best approach is to define a number of scenarios to assess the impact of combinations of financing and hedging on funding and risk. A base scenario could be to finance all funding needs using overnight loans. In case of liquidity problems, what would be the impact on the funding rates? Another scenario would be using quarterly funding or yearly rollover funding, potentially combined with:

  • money market futures
  • interest rate swaps
  • caps / floors
  • bond futures or even
  • credit derivatives

What are the incremental funding cost? What are incremental operational expenses of running various products? Can the entity deal with managing margin requirements? Is the entity aware of the basis risks involved when using credit derivatives, which are fairly complex products?

Rob Soentken

 

 

Rob Söentken

Ex-derivatives trader