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Forecasting the future by looking at the past
| 25-7-2017 | Lionel Pavey |
A key role within the Treasury function is providing forecasts to the directors and management. The most obvious would be the cash flow forecast, but others would include foreign exchange prices, interest rates, commodities and energy.
A forecasts is a tool that helps with planning for the uncertainty in the future, by analyzing data from the past and present whilst attempting to ascertain the future.
Internal – cash flow forecast
We would like our forecasts to be as accurate as possible – that the values we predict are close to the actual values in the future. This requires designing a comprehensive matrix to determine the variables needed for the data input. Data has to be provided by all departments within a company to enable us to build a forecast. This data needs to be presented in the same way by all contributors so that there is consistency throughout.
We also have to see if the forecast data is within the parameters of the agreed budget. We also need to check for variances – why is there a difference and how can it be explained.
External – FX and Interest Rates
A more common approach is to read through the research provided by banks and data suppliers to try and see what the market thinks the future price will be. Also we need to include data from the past – we need to know where the price has been, where it is now and what the expectation is for the future.
Extrapolating forward prices is notoriously difficult – if it were simple, we would all be rich in the future! But, by including past data, we can see what the price range has been, both on a long term as well as a short term basis.
When attempting to find a future value there are 2 common methods used – fundamental and technical.
Fundamental Analysis
Use is made of economic and financial factors both macroeconomic (the economy, the industrial sector) and microeconomic (the financial health of the relevant company, the performance of the management). The financial statements of a company are analysed in an attempt to arrive at a fair value. This leads to an intrinsic value, which is not always the same as the current value.
The value is normally calculated by discounting future cash flow projections within the company.
Technical Analysis
Use is made of the supply and demand within the market as a whole and attempts to determine the future value by predicting what the trend in the price should be. This is done by using charts to identify trends and patterns within the data. This assumes that the market price now is always correct, that prices move in determinable trends and that history repeats itself. Technical analysis uses the trend – this is the direction that the market is heading towards.
Whilst these 2 approaches are independent of each other, they can be used together. You could take a fundamental approach to value a company or asset, and then use technical analysis to try and determine when you should enter and exit the market.
Fundamental analysis is more of a long term path and technical analysis is more short term. The most important thing to remember is that markets only really experience large movements based on changes to the fundamentals. Predicting the long term future only via technical analysis is likely to be incorrect. All the major movements over the last 50 years in the prices of shares, bonds, foreign exchange and interest rates have occurred because of a change in the fundamentals.
In the next article, I will look at various methods of calculating averages to determine the trend.
An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.
Lionel Pavey
Cash Management and Treasury Specialist
Why does Apple issue a green bond? Spoiler alert: I do not know (yet)
24-7-2017 | Pieter de Kiewit | treasuryXL |
Recently we had an “inner circle meeting” of treasuryXL in which we talk about developments and the direction we want to go. One of the invitees suggested we pay special attention to sustainable financing and related topics. I agree that this topic is quite prominent and this reminded me about a recent article in which a so-called “green bond issue” by Apple is described. This was the second issuance by them and raised $1 billion. Then my corporate treasury laymen’s mind started working and so far it has not stopped about this topic.
At the start of this year Apple was in the news because of the huge pile of cash in their books. The amounts are staggering and most likely not accurate. Repatriating this cash to the US would be suboptimal from a fiscal perspective but that is a topic for another blog. The funds raised with the green bond will be used to start projects around renewable energy and buying of safe raw materials.
The puzzle for me is: if you have all this cash, why would you do a bond issue? It is a lot of hassle, why not leverage the money you have? If you think this is a smart investment, why not invest yourself?
One of my colleagues suggested they do this from a marketing perspective. I don’t know about you, but I will not buy an Apple instead of a Samsung because of a green bond. So this is not the reason I expect. Perhaps it is a risk mitigation strategy in a project Apple will invest in anyway. My question to the corporate treasury and banking community: Do you know why?
Thank you for your answer and I will try to focus on other blog topics around sustainability and corporate treasury. I am convinced more obvious are available.
Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search
Another interesting article about funding:
Business case – Funding strategy: how Fastned uses Nxchange
Banken en Financiële Markten in Vogelvlucht – Boek en e-learning voor specialisten zonder financiële achtergrond
| 21-7-2017 | Michiel van den Broek |
Sinds de jaren ’80 heeft er een ongekende schaalvergroting plaatsgevonden in de financiële sector. Door deze schaalvergroting hebben banken zich ontwikkeld tot gigantische financiële supermarkten die een zeer uitgebreid aantal financiële diensten en producten aanbieden. Banken zijn tegenwoordig IT-bedrijven waar een grote groep specialisten werkt met beperkte financiële vakkennis.
Mijn boek ‘Banken en Financiële Markten in Vogelvlucht’ geeft een helder overzicht ter introductie in de complexe wereld van banken en financiële markten. Bij het boek is een toegankelijke e-learning training beschikbaar met multiple choice vragen en een aantal video’s.
De combinatie van boek met e-learning biedt een efficiënte opleiding met basiskennis over de kernactiviteiten van banken, de verschillende bankactiviteiten en soorten banken, de oorzaak van de financiële crisis van 2008 en de ‘Bazelse Akkoorden’ waarop het toezicht van centrale banken is gebaseerd. Tevens bevat het een overzicht van de verschillende activiteiten op financiële markten, zoals de motivatie om bepaalde soorten financiële (derivate) producten te verhandelen, de prijsvorming en organisatie van de handel van deze producten. Ook de actuele onderwerpen risicomanagement en compliance komen aan de orde aan de hand van een aantal praktijkvoorbeelden van calamiteiten, zoals de problemen met MKB-rentswaps en de onbevoegde handelsactiviteiten van zogenaamde ‘rogue traders’, waaronder Barings Bank en woningbouwcorporatie Vestia.
Het boek is verkrijgbaar voor €25, toegang tot de e-learning kost €95.
Voor het boek en de e-learning kunt u mailen naar [email protected]
Een demo van de e-learning kunt u vinden op FTH.
Over de auteur: na mijn bedrijfseconomische studie heb ik vanaf 1990 gewerkt in de financiële sector. Sinds 2005 geef ik trainingen om ‘complexe’ financiële onderwerpen toegankelijk te maken voor professionals zonder economische of financiële opleiding.
Michiel van den Broek
Owner of Hecht Consult