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Gebrek aan voortgang in Voortgangsrapportage Rentederivaten MKB
| 13-12-2017 | Simon Knappstein |
De AFM noemt als reden voor de vertraging “Problemen met automatisering en data. De kwaliteit van de historische data van banken is niet in alle gevallen voldoende om efficiënt de compensatie op grond van het UHK te kunnen berekenen en controleren. Verder geldt dat de rentederivatendossiers van klanten zeer verschillend zijn en vaak bijzonder complex en dat heeft gevolgen gehad voor (de praktische uitwerking van) het UHK. Mede door deze knelpunten blijkt de uitvoering van het UHK in de praktijk complexer dan de banken, de externe dossierbeoordelaars en de AFM hadden voorzien. Dit betekent ook dat de door banken afgegeven planningen onzeker zijn.” Verder staat er: “Zo zijn bijvoorbeeld de derivaten- en lening-systemen veelal niet structureel gekoppeld en is een handmatig proces ingezet om de derivaten aan de juiste leningen te koppelen.” Dat die systemen niet gekoppeld zijn mag geen verrassing zijn voor de banken. Dus waarom dat op dit moment als oorzaak genoemd wordt mag eerder als verrassing gekwalificeerd worden.
De vraag die dit oproept is waarom de banken überhaupt hebben geprobeerd de oplossing te automatiseren. Mijn beste gok is dat er in een eerder stadium ingeschat is dat op de bulk van de dossiers slechts alleen stap 3 (de coulance-uitkering) van toepassing zou zijn. Het zal dan een dure misrekening zijn geweest als blijkt dat het leeuwendeel van de dossiers toch een handmatige benadering vereist. In dat geval is er een hoop geld en tijd verloren gegaan wat niet meer goed gemaakt gaat worden.
In de huidige planning, die dus onzeker is, zijn er 2 banken die verwachten eind 2017 alle aanbodbrieven te zullen hebben verstuurd, 1 bank die rekent met medio 2018 en 3 die mikken op eind 2018. Het zou nog inzichtelijker zijn als daarbij ook vermeld stond om hoeveel klanten het dan gaat per bank.
Een volgende rapportage van de AFM wordt in de zomer van 2018 verwacht. Zoals het er nu uitziet zou het al heel mooi zijn als de einddatum dan niet weer vooruitgeschoven wordt.
De AFM zegt ook in de komende periode kritisch toezicht te blijven houden op zowel de banken als de externe dossierbeoordelaars.
Simon Knappstein
Owner of FX Prospect
Lees ook: Uniform herstelkader rentederivaten mkb
Eurozone economic prospect – Goldilocks meets the bears?
| 12-12-2017 | treasuryXL |
Long term Interest rates
Long term interest rates have been in a downward channel since the summer of 2008. 10-year EUR interest rate swaps (an acceptable benchmark) peaked just above 5% in 2008 before falling and steadying around 2% towards the autumn of 2013. After a period of relative calm, the rates continued their descent to a bottom of 0.25% around 15 months ago. Over the last 3 years, 10-year EUR interest rate swaps have averaged a yield of just 0.75% – now the yield is 0.80%.
Short term interest rates
3-month Euribor turned negative in April 2015 and has remained negative. Over the last 3 years, the yield has averaged -/- 0.20% – now the yield is -/- 0.33%. 3-month Euribor futures imply that the rate will remain negative until March 2020 and, will rise to just 0.75% by September 2022.
Economic indicators
Unemployment falling to 9.6% in 2017; 9.1% in 2018
GDP growing by 1.6% in 2017; 1.8% in 2018
Government debt to GDP ratio falling to 90.4% in 2017, 89.2% in 2018
Average maturity for new government debt extending to 13 years in 2017; 9 years in 2007
So, what could happen to trigger a reversal in this sentiment?
Share prices are rising – AEX index is up almost 15% since the start of the year
House prices are rising – in the Netherlands prices have increased by 8% over the last year. Turnover is greater with 14% more homes sold than last year.
Global debt is rising – about EUR 190 trillion. This amounts to more than 300% of the world’s annual economic output. (source IIF report)
Interest coverage ratios (ICR) are deteriorating worldwide – in Europe specifically in Germany and France. (source IIF report) This, even though interest rates are low.
Balance sheet of central banks are dangerously expanded – result of Quantitative Easing.
Historical low interest rates – leading to underestimation of risks.
Political change – a rise in “populist” parties in many countries reflecting disenchanted voters
So, what about Goldilocks?
The dilemma for the ECB is that the Eurozone has, essentially, become 2 blocs – the North and the South. In the North, with increases in house prices and stock markets, and drops in unemployment; a rise in interest rates would not be deemed to be negative. However, in the South, the recovery is far behind and they welcome every form of stimulus to aid their economies.
And the moral of story – how your actions/inactions may affect others.
And remember who chased Goldilocks away – the bears (markets!)
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Who to choose: A generalist or a specialist?
| 11-12-2017 | Olivier Werlingshoff |
During the last few months this question has been on top of my mind. Is it better to specialize yourself and start a specific study?
First, we need to look at the definitions of both; a specialist is a person who is highly skilled in a specific and restricted field. A generalist is a person who is competent in several different fields or activities.
On LinkedIn you can find the 6 differences between a generalist and a specialist by “Han van Kasteren”.
I will mention a few:
But I also thought of two other differences which I would like to share with you:
Now I have mentioned a few bullet points I found on the internet, when can a generalist interim Treasurer be a good choice?
I would say especially in the field of cash management and working capital they could be a good choice. Both specialties have effect on different departments of the business to mention a few; controlling, sales department, procurement, tax and legal.
During my career I talked with a lot of CFO’s and financial managers of large companies and tried to understand their challenges and to help them achieve their goals. As treasurer I had my own challenges and tried to make links with other departments to achieve my goals.
I am a generalist with a passion for cash management optimization!
Olivier Werlingshoff
Owner of Werfiad