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1 year to Brexit – the banking exodus?

| 09-04-2018 | treasuryXL |

If all goes as stated, then the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union on 29^th March 2019. There has been fierce competition within the EU to entice banks away from London and to settle within the Euro zone. In London there is a fear that there will be a banking exodus – an industry that has prospered and made London a global centre. At till now banks have been able to sell their services into Europe via London, that this is envisaged to change. So, how are the major European cities faring in their campaigns?

What is at stake?

The scenarios of job losses are varied – 10,000 job in banking, 20,000 in further financial services. Others speak of job losses totaling more than 200,000. The large US investment banks retain more than 80 per cent of their European staff in London. The main target appears to be the Euro clearing role – a settlement service mainly in financial derivatives denominated in Euro’s that is now performed in London.

The Netherlands has certainly tried to attract interest from foreign banks and has many good qualities. Most of the population speak English, and there is a good infrastructure. Tax incentives are offered to qualified foreign workers, together with a global port in Rotterdam. The Netherlands Foreign Investment Agency is actively engaging with foreign companies, extoling the virtues of the country. Recently, Unilever took the decision to place its headquarters in Rotterdam – even though they have had a head office there for close on 100 years. Whilst there is already an appreciable physical presence of foreign banks on Dutch soil, there have yet to be any big announcements about a bank moving from London to Amsterdam or Rotterdam.

Germany, and specifically Frankfurt, have also been hard at work. The economy minister for the state of Hesse, claims that more than 20 financial institutions have chosen for Frankfurt. As of today, their names have not all been revealed. Frankfurt is an established financial centre, though discernably smaller than London. As well as banks, there are also regional corporate treasury centres, prime brokers, legal services and other ancillary groups.

Paris – that has been chosen for the European Banking Authority – is also in the picture but does not appear to be attracting the financial institutions. If banks follow the London model, then they would rather be closer to the central bank – the ECB – and that is headquartered in Frankfurt.

Relocation of the financial industry from London to Europe will be good for local employment. It is not just the direct banking industry that will be of benefit to the local communities. The support services are very significant and must also be factored into any equation.

With now less than 12 months to go till Brexit, the race will be heating up to woo the banks as the prize is very enticing and the gains to local economies very large!!

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State of the nation – the future looks bright

| 06-04-2018 | treasuryXL |

Last week, the Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) released their year end data for 2017 regarding the Dutch economy. The recovery is strong – for the first time since 2008 the Netherlands complies with 2 of the important Euro criteria at the same time; the government debt is below 60% of GDP and the annual budget deficit must not exceed 3% of GDP. Furthermore, Dutch GDP grew at an annual rate by 3.2% in 2017 – this is higher than in 2016 when the growth was 2.2%. This is the strongest growth since 2007. We take a look at the data and the contributing factors.

Debt

At the end of Q4 2017, government debt was reported as EUR 416 bn. This is 56.7% of GDP, compared to 61.8% in 2016. There was a reduction of EUR 18 bn in the total debt – the largest annual fall recorded. As recently as 2014, this ratio stood at 68.0%

Budget surplus

At the end of Q4 2017, the government had a budget surplus of EUR 8 bn – a surplus of 1.1% of GDP. In 2009, this was a deficit of 5.4% of GDP. Expenditure increased by EUR 7 bn in 2017, but this was offset by an increase in revenue of EUR 12 bn. Tax revenues increased by EUR 15 bn. There was additional income of EUR 8 bn from the sale of state shareholdings in ASR and ABNAmro among others.

Inflation

There was a rise in consumer prices – CPI showed an annual rise of 1.4% in 2017. This compares with a rise of 0.3% in 2016.

Labour

Wages in 2017 increased by 1.7% and unemployment fell in 2017 – at the end of 2017 the rate was 4.1%. Shortages of available labour are being observed in the market – employers have stated that they are finding it increasingly hard to find appropriate employees. The latest reports suggest that there are 1 million vacancies, but that employers are having difficulty finding qualified people. Most of this growth appears to be coming from the small and medium sized enterprises (MKB) – large organisations are still in a round of cost-cutting and down-sizing.

The report of the Netherlands looks very rosy, but international events could impact on the health of the economy. There are threats of trade wars; Brexit will impact on trade within 1 year; the EU parliament is asking for more money in the next budget cycle; the composition of the new Italian government could cause unrest within the rest of the EU.

The future does look bright, but caution is advised on the road ahead.

What future role for CSDs in blockchain post-trade environment?

| 05-04-2018 | Carlo de Meijer |

Blockchain technology enables real-time settlement finality in the securities world. This may mean the end of a number of players in the post trade area. For a long time, central securities depositories (CSDs), as intermediators in the post-trade processing chain, were expected to become obsolete. CSDs, but also other existing players in the post-trade environment, are however changing their mind on these new technologies and on their future position in the blockchain world. Increasing regulation, legacy systems and costs pressures, are drivers for CSDs to at least embrace some aspects of blockchain. They are increasingly considering them as enabler of more efficient processing of existing and new services, instead of a threat to their existence. It is interesting to see that some of these actors – who could be potentially big losers in a distributed ledger technology (DLT) or blockchain system – are open to innovation with blockchain and willing to invest in DLT. Last January SWIFT and seven CSDs worldwide agreed on a Memorandum of Understanding to explore the use of blockchain technology in the post trade process esp. e-proxy voting.

Where do CSDs stand now?

Complex and fragmented post-trade infrastructure

The current post-trade infrastructure is highly complex and fragmented, crowded with intermediaries, and dealing with outdated legacy systems and technologies. Much of the complexity and fragmentation of the post-trade world is the result of the various participants (custodians, issuers, registrars, CSDs) holding their own, separate ledgers in order to carry out the processes. Consequently, they spend much time and resources on reconciliation and risk management, in order to ensure that transactions can be (and are) appropriately carried out. The completion of securities transactions is as a result a costly and risky business. This has important consequences, efficiency-wise.

Situated at the end of the post-trading process, CSDs are systemically important intermediaries. In the post-trade process the CSDs play a special role both as a depository, involving the legal safekeeping and maintenance of securities in a ‘central depository’ on behalf of custodians, in materialised or dematerialised form; and for the, involving the issuance of further securities by issuers, and their onboarding onto CSDs’ platforms.

Is there a future for CSDs in a disruptive blockchain world?

Blockchain: disruption in securities post-trade

DLT has the potential to heavily disrupt existing post-trade processes in financial services, impacting the business model of a number of intermediaries. This raises significant questions for the present actors in the post-trade world as their role may change dramatically or even disappear. For some actors in the post-trade world, DLT could completely replace their businesses or even make them obsolete. And others should question what will be their added-value within future DLT services.

With blockchain, that is linking trading partners directly, everything will be in place in the ledger at the time of the transaction. Institutions will no longer have to maintain their own databases in the future with DLT, as there will be only one database for all participants in the transaction.

With DLT, all of the complex systems and processes to transfer cash and equities from one account to another are not required. Everything can be embedded into the blockchain. Buyers and sellers can match transactions in seconds and all parties are aware a transaction has been done. This will heavily ease the reconciliation process. Blockchain could ultimately become the standard for financial transactions and real-time settlements, increasing transparency and efficiency in a highly fragmented industry.

Read the full article of our expert Carlo de Meijer on LinkedIn

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher