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How does a FX Forward transaction work?

| 27-11-2017 | treasuryXL |

FX Forward Contract

A Foreign Exchange Swap (also known as a FX Forward) is a two-legged transaction where one currency is sold or bought against another currency at a determined date, and then simultaneously bought or sold back against the other currency at a future date. Normally this means the first transaction would take place at the prevailing spot rate and settle on the spot date, whilst the forward transaction would prevail at an agreed forward rate and settle on the agreed forward date. The difference between the Spot price (or first price) and the Forward price (or second price) represents the FX Forward and is expressed as Swap points.

What are Swap points?

Swap points represent the cost of borrowing one currency, whilst simultaneously lending another currency for a time period equal to the swap period. Swap points are therefore the cost of carry netted out between two currencies and used to adjust the existing Spot price to express the Forward price.

Worked example

Currency 1 ABC
Currency 2 XYZ
Period 6 months
Days in period 183
Interest rate 6 months ABC 4%
Interest rate 6 months XYZ 7%
Spot ABC/XYZ 2.1025

For ABC 1,000,000.00 there are XYZ 2,102,500.00

ABC 1,000,000.00 * (1+4/100*183/360) = ABC 1,020,000.00
XYZ 2,102,500.00 * (1+7/100*183/360) = XYZ 2,177,313.96

XYZ 2,177,313.96/ABC 1,020,333.33 = 2.1339

Swap points = +/+ 314 pips

What does this mean?

The Forward price of 2.1339 is higher than the Spot price of 2.1025 and means that the currency ABC trades at a forward premium to currency XYZ. Therefore, the Swap points of 314 pips are added to the current Spot price. A bank that is quoting would only quote the Swap points. A two-way quote would look something like 304/324. At 304 the bank would sell and buy ABC – spot against 6 months – against buying and selling XYZ. At 324 they would do the complete reverse.

So is the Forward price the same as a future?

No, the Forward price is not an attempt to determine the future value of currency ABC expressed in the price of currency XYZ. It is a price that is derived by notionally hedging the notional values of both currencies against their respective interest rates that are applicable at that moment in time. The Forward price is an example of interest rate parity – a state of non-arbitrage or equilibrium where traders are indifferent to either as there is no monetary advantage in either. Forwards are traded ‘Over the Counter’ and not via an exchange. Regardless of what the future value of spot ABC/XYZ is, once the trade has been executed there can only ever be opportunity loss or profit in the bookkeeping.

Variations

FX Forwards can also be forward starting – a client might wish to create/hedge an exposure starting in 4 months’ time and with a tenor of 6 months. This would be seen as a 6 month starting in 4 months’ time – or a 4m*10m. Such a Forward would be calculated from the present spot to both 4 months and 10 months, with the present Spot rate adjusted for the Forward price for 4 months to reflect the new starting price.

Alternatively, instead of swapping a position, a client might just wish to hedge their exposure/obligation in the future by trading ‘Outright’. If they were to buy ABC forward they would enter into a FX Swap (sell ABC at spot and buy forward) and then immediately buy ABC at spot, offsetting the spot leg of the FX Swap.

What moves the price?

Changes in the underlying interest rates of both currencies will affect the calculation. Also as the interest rate differential of the two currencies is expressed as a price of the existing spot rate, changes in the spot rate will also cause changes in the outcome of the calculation – though generally smaller than those caused by changes in interest rates.

Why trade FX Forwards?

FX Forwards allow a company to hedge future exposure/obligations. Once the contract has been struck that value is confirmed and is not subject to ‘mark-to-market’ variation orders as happens with an off-balance-sheet instrument. An exposure in one currency can be transformed into another currency via use of a FX Forward. An expected inflow or outflow that is delayed can be rolled forward by using a FX Forward.

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

The treasurer plays with fire, when hedging foreign currencies to his sole gut feelings

| 24-11-2017 | Rob Beemster |

The foreign exchange market is a highly volatile market and therefore full of surprises. For more than 20 years, I was a spot currency trader in the dealing room of a large international bank. One of the things I liked the most in being a trader was the unpredictability of the markets. Never a dull moment. The management of the bank gave us a lot of freedom, once you had proven the ability to handle this. But always we had to take care of some very important requirements, like the VAR (Value At Risk), and we had to protect our positions with stop-loss orders.

Executing a stop-loss was the worst part of my job. It proved that you had been wrong in judging a certain move of a currency. It sometimes felt like being a loser. However, executing at a stop-loss level gives you the freedom to restart a new currency position. We were never blamed by colleagues or the management for having executed a stop-loss. It was part of the risks, and by using a stop everyone knew that overall business would never be hurt. If losses taken by stops were in line with the profits taken (relatively speaking) everything would be fine, considering that a good trader makes more positive decisions then negative ones.

Now let’s consider the controller who decides on his hedges, based on his gut feelings. Most probably this is based on old nonsensical ideas like, “what goes up must go down”, and, “It will come back to old levels”. Because of my business today, I speak with finance managers about their hedging strategies. Sometimes they make me feel embarrassed because of their self-created strategies; “I like to play foreign currency strategy myself”, or; “we have had good years and less good years”. From a business economic point of view this can be very painful. Volatility in foreign currencies is a very important component of international business. But one has to realize that this component can be managed. Companies should install a risk management procedure on their foreign currency exposure/obligations, to preserve their profit margins. A proper strategy not only protects the margins and cash flow but will also create prudency within the entire company.

A currency strategy is an implemented structure, necessary for the finance department. However, others that are responsible for the flows, like sales departments, procurement or production, should be involved and be aware of the importance of the strategy as well. Our models do describe the tasks of all the departments. A communication plan is part of the currency strategy. When the implemented processes are understood by everyone within the company, then and only then the strategy will work.

Our foreign currency risk models are very useful within international operating corporations. We can help you to implement the processes that will secure cash flows. A controller, who makes decisions on FX out of the blue, is unacceptable and too dangerous for the continuity of the business, moreover, it is intolerable in modern finance departments.

Barcelona valuta experts can be of assistance to you. After precise research of the current status of your company we can implement the right models. And this will protect you against negative or unwelcome currency moves.

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

The impact of blockchain technology on central counterparty clearing houses

Today’s blog has been written by Youri Toepoel, Romy Steegwijk & Dirk Heesakkers , who are 3 students studying for the minor Treasury Management at the University of Applied Sciences in Utrecht. We welcome their contribution – it is good to see the youth engaging in Treasury matters! Here is their opinion on Blockchain technology and its impact on central counterparty clearing houses.

A central counterparty clearing house can reduce counterparty risks associated with doing business with unfamiliar counterparties in unfamiliar markets. When businesses lack the capabilities, resources and expertise required to reduce counterparty risks, a central counterparty clearing house might be the solution. In recent years new disruptive technologies have been developed. Cryptocurrencies are becoming more known worldwide and the underlying technology, the blockchain, might be able to decentralize current services offered by financial institutions like banks.

Counterparty risk

Counterparty risk is the possibility that someone you do business with is unable to meet his/her obligations with you. Events during the recent credit crunch, particularly with Lehman Brothers, showed that banks and businesses had put too much trust in the credit ratings formed by the credit agencies. Corporates based creditworthiness of counterparties mainly, or even only, on the credit ratings given by credit rating agencies, expecting those ratings to be accurate and trustworthy. This has proven to be wrong and since the credit crunch many businesses started to measure and control counterparty risk based on other factors beside the credit rating received from the credit rating agencies (Treasury Today, 2014).

The counterparties

For the treasury function the counterparty risk is mainly associated with the banks and other financial institutions since these are the parties the treasury function is mostly dealing with. Additionally, also governments are important given they supply the “risk free” government bonds, but as seen with the government of Greece even governments show the ability to get into financial problems. The treasury function will often deal with these parties to attract or repel liquidity, derivatives or long-term loans to support the business’s day-to-day operations. In the end, exposure to suppliers and customers are also important to the counterparty risk.

Central Counterparty Clearing House (CCP)

A central counterparty clearing house (CCP) is an organisation that exists in various European countries to help facilitate trading done in European derivatives and equities markets. These clearing houses are often operated by the major banks in the country to provide efficiency and stability to the financial markets in which they operate. CCPs bear most of the credit risk of buyers and sellers when clearing and settling market transactions (Investopedia).

Blockchain versus central counterparty clearing house

A CCP offers a good solution to the counterparty risk that most companies face when doing business with counterparties. But this service, as it basically provides a settlement between two parties, might be a prey for decentralization by technology based on the Blockchain.

The Blockchain is often simply described as a distributed ledger and has the capability to replace services being provided by central service providers like banks. The unique part is the absence of a trusted third party (a bank that we visit or to which we log in with a key, an Amazon.com, eBay or whoever you know and trust…) (Servat, 2015).

Currently, the only obstacle seems to be regulation since the blockchain already shows numerous application possibilities. Lots of banks and other financial institutions are currently investing big money in the blockchain technology to find out in which way they can use it (or save themselves with?) (Scuffham, 2017).

Whether the blockchain totally replaces or gets integrated by financial institutions like the CCP, these innovations are surely interesting to follow and keep track of (Treasury Today, 2014).

Sources/bronnen/aanvullend

https://medium.com/@colin_/central-counterparties-ccps-in-decentralised-blockchains-f2cf671f5787

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/ccph.asp

http://treasurytoday.com/2016/05/blockchain-technology-ttqa

https://www.treasury-management.com/article/1/354/2920/blockchain-%96-disruption-or-hype-.html

http://treasurytoday.com/2017/09/the-rise-and-rise-of-blockchain-tttech

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rbc-blockchain/exclusive-royal-bank-of-canada-using-blockchain-for-u-s-canada-payments-executive-idUSKCN1C237N

https://fd.nl/beurs/1222842/nieuwkomer-ripple-provoceert-betaalbedrijf-swift-op-eigen-terrein