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Cash flow prognoses zijn van vitaal belang in corporate treasury

| 29-11-2018 | Cashforce | treasuryXL |

De lancering, eerder deze week, van het nieuwe liquiditeitsbeheerportaal van HSBC, moet begin volgend jaar worden gevolgd door een nieuw Cash Flow Forecasting-platform, dat laat zien hoe liquiditeitsbeheer en kasstroomvoorspellingen met elkaar verweven zijn. Er is een groeiend aanbod van leveranciers die zich op dit gebied concentreren, waaronder onze partner Cashforce.

Cashforce maakt verbinding met alle gegevensbronnen die het geld beïnvloeden, om een zeer nauwkeurige cash forecast te bouwen. Slimme algoritmen worden toegepast om nog meer nauwkeurigheid te bieden en zullen
pro-actieve optimalisatie acties tonen. ”

Het belang van kasstroomprognoses neemt steeds verder toe. Bruce Lynn, Managing Partner bij The FECG LLC, is bezig met de laatste fase van zijn onderzoek onder 200 bedrijven wereldwijd en hun gebruik van cash flow forecasting en werkkapitaal management. Hij is van mening dat het belang van cash flow forecasting toeneemt omdat er sinds 10 jaar weer sprake is van een stijgend renteklimaat. Hij vindt dat:

De ‘beste’ bedrijven dit belang zullen erkennen en trachten de inherente variaties te verkleinen die zullen optreden omdat de toekomst onzeker is.
Ze zullen moeten investeren om “zichtbaarheid” te verkrijgen over hun “stromen” (werk, contanten, boekhouding, informatie). Investeringen zullen niet alleen veranderingen op treasury afdelingen, maar ook operationele afdelingen met zich meebrengen waar de grotere cashflows plaatsvindt.
De “slimmere” bedrijven zullen hun personeel naast de bestaande beloningen ook belonen voor het genereren van meer en stabielere kasstromen
Probleem (zoals onderzoek lijkt aan te geven): gebrek aan informatie op operationeel niveau; relatieve onbelangrijkheid van kasstromen versus winst. Hoge afhankelijkheid van de technologie van 1980 (dat wil zeggen spreadsheets)
De overige bedrijven zullen hun kapitaalkosten zien stijgen naarmate ze overgefinancierd raken of te weinig investeren. Het risico zal vooral hoog zijn voor bedrijven die vreemd vermogen gebruiken om het verwachte rendement van het eigen vermogen te verhogen.

Binnenkort zal er een survey uitgebracht worden waarvan de resultaten hier gedeeld zullen worden.

Cashforce – Cash forecasting & Smart Treasury

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Cash flow forecasting – more than just safeguarding liquidity

| 4-6-2018 | Gerald Dorrer | TIPCO Treasury & Technology GmbH |

“We don’t need cash flow forecasting” – statements like this are frequently heard at companies with significant cash reserves. They often highlight concerns about major internal expenses as capturing the relevant data can tie up significant resources. Modern cash flow forecasting, however, is about far more than just safeguarding against insolvency. And using up-to-date technologies only minimal efforts are needed to implement a forecast that will provide you with an array of insightful data.

The easy way to achieve modern forecasting

Many of the data needed for cash flow forecasting already exist in various systems. ERP systems are a particularly efficient data source. For example, this is where you’ll find all of your receivables and payables, including the associated due dates and terms of payment. These data alone will already provide much of what you need. You can also find other influential factors here such as the volumes of regular salary payments. Modern forecasting systems already come complete with an interface to ERPs, making it possible to import these data at the press of a button and take them into account in your forecasts.

Another helpful tool is predictive analytics. Although the statistical methods which predictive analytics are based on have already existed for quite some time, modern technologies now make it possible to use these in practice. Predictive analytics is the key to leveraging historical data to predict future developments with an amazing degree of accuracy. A good example of the advantages offered by this procedure is in the case of a company with seasonal fluctuations in terms of its revenues. If you already have a target figure for revenues in the coming year, then predictive analytics will be able to rapidly and accurately break this down into sales for the individual months. But far more complex scenarios are also conceivable, such as the early identification of trends by means of automated analyses of social media data which can ultimately be translated into cash flows.

Flexibility

But which factors characterise a modern forecasting system?

Besides the criteria mentioned above (a connection to existing data sources and predictive analytics), flexibility is the most important factor – in all respects.

A modern system will allow you to freely define the structure of your forecasting within just a few minutes. Regardless of whether you need standard forecasting of operational and non-operational payments and financial cash flows or whether your company mainly engages in project-related business, you should be able to freely define the structure and the details of your cash flow categorisation. On the other hand, it should also be possible to rely on templates provided by the system in order to start the process using a structure tailored to your specific industry.

At the same time, modern systems also allow you to be flexible in terms of your forecasting horizon. Everything should be possible: from short-term day-by-day forecasting required by banks for companies facing critical cash flow bottlenecks, to long-term forecasting with a horizon of several years. Top-of-the-line systems can even offer you the option of mixing daily, weekly and monthly data in order, for example, to forecast the next seven days on a daily basis, the following twelve weeks on a weekly basis and the remaining nine months on a monthly basis. You can specify how the weekly and monthly values are automatically distributed. This means that you are free to define how previous figures with a low degree of granularity appear at the weekly or daily level after the next data rollover.

Flexibility is also required when it comes to displaying the data. Modern systems offer you several features which enable you to investigate the causes of significant differences between the current and earlier forecasts. For example, switch between the various levels of granularity, whether in terms of the structure or the timeline, or compare forecast and actual figures, or even forecasts from different points in time. Thanks to these flexible display options, expensive analysis tools are no longer necessary; all you need to do is take a quick look at your system.

More than just safeguarding liquidity

The primary purpose of forecasting of course remains ensuring sufficient liquidity. Based on your current cash reserves, the cash flows captured for future time periods are aggregated to provide you with the forecast of cash available at the end of every period. This makes it possible to quickly spot cash bottlenecks.

If your system also offers you the option of managing your credit facilities and their due dates, and integrating these into your cash flow forecasting, then this will enable you to quickly determine when credit lines will need to be drawn on or when they will need to be increased. This is just one of the many aspects which make it clear how significantly you can be supported by a well-designed system.

Systems which also permit you to forecast on a currency-differentiated basis offer considerable additional benefits. This feature will allow you to capture all cash flows in the original transaction currency. The advantage here is that, as soon as you have prepared the forecast, you not only have an overview of the development of liquidity but also of your FX risk exposures. If your system also allows you to manage FX hedge transactions, a comparison of FX payments and these hedge transactions will enable you to determine your unhedged FX exposure in no time at all. The latest systems can even automatically generate hedge proposals based on the unhedged exposure which are then automatically forwarded to your trading system in a workflow-based process once these have been confirmed and approved.

Conclusion

Technological progress has made preparing a cash flow forecast easier today than ever before. Even if no liquidity bottlenecks are currently likely at your company, due to the ongoing reduction in the expenses involved, it nonetheless makes little sense to take unnecessary risks and to pass up on the advantages that comprehensive cash flow forecasting offers.

Gerald Dorrer – Manager TIPCO Treasury & Technology GmbH

Content originally posted on Cash & Treasury Management File on 26/3/2018

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Cash forecasting: A data story

| 17-01-2018 | Cashforce |

Have you ever heard the dogma that people only use 10% of their brain capacity? Fortunately, this statement is a myth, but a similar (and more truthful) argument can be made for data usage. Using the example of an oil rig, a 2015 McKinsey & Company report states that an organisation typically uses less than 1% of the collected data to make decisions. While intuitively not all data will be useful to include in the decision-making process, it’s fair to say that there is a huge untapped potential.

From advanced retargeting in the marketing world to tailored music suggestions on Spotify, data has been in an uplift, opening doors in almost every field. Corporate finance & treasury is sitting pretty as well: amongst other areas, integrating relevant data into your forecasting model can facilitate substantial improvements in the quality of your cash flow predictions.

In this exuberant amount of data, it’s important to distinguish internal from external data.

Internal corporate data

Put simply, the bulk of data involved in cash projections will be found internally. Standard forecasting models, mostly build in spreadsheets, often make use of a small part of these data. Both account balances grabbed from banking portals and user generated input contribute to fulfil the daily, weekly or monthly cash forecast. User generated data may contain sales budget & forecast, average incoming & outgoing cash flows, projected dividends, CAPEX investments, etc. This information is necessary however typically lacks accuracy.

When making smart use of additional internal business data, most of these estimates can be derived from other internal data that may lead to a higher degree of forecast accuracy and a maintainable forecasting model. Such internal data sources are numerous and contain information on sales & purchase orders, quotations from your CRM system, production planning & all kind of recurring activities that carry relevant information on your future cash flows. Additionally, treasury data can automatically be included as well, enabling your treasury department to be multiple steps ahead instead of running behind daily facts.

To maximize the potential of your internal (big) data, algorithms and calculations need to be added to the forecasting model. By incorporating customer payment behaviour, seasonality patterns, correlations between different types of cash flows… your predictions can easily benefit from fine-tuning of these basic parameters. Re-evaluating those assumptions can by looking at meaningful patterns that are present in the data, can help to make a smarter and more tailored forecast. As an example, by carefully looking at past payment periods, future payments for each customer can be estimated with a high degree of precision.

External data

Finally, integrating external data in your forecasting model will typically not affect cash the forecast in the short-term. It can however be relevant for long-term cash projections and fine-tuning. Market sentiment and macro economical indices will be most useful here, as well as all ticker information on treasury & commodity futures.

After capturing all this data, it’s key to consolidate everything from several (usually incompatible) operational systems. Note that not only the amount of data and diversity of data sources are important, but the accuracy of input and up-to-date information as well.

Consequentially, through extensive modelling and analysis, an effective and accurate cash flow forecast can be created. For this you would need software that can handle advanced big data analytics in order to convey pattern recognition and forecasting. The lion’s share of prevailing software doesn’t have the necessary integration possibilities and processing power to efficiently effectuate these kind of complex consolidation and analyses. Fortunately, some are built with this data requirements in mind and do have these capabilities. These make room for generating a significantly better cash forecast.

The world of business is going through rapid advancement in this age of technology, and the financial discipline is not spared in this phenomenon. While this data story unfolds, the time has come to put your “corporate brain-capacity” to use. Will you let this wealth of data create an unseen amount of value?

If you want to find out more about Cashforce and their services and products please refer to their company profile on treasuryXL.

Cashforce: Treasury year-end meetup

Onderstaand een kort verslag van ons Treasury year-end meetup-event van eind 2017.

Tim (Jonk – Thomson Reuters) en Martijn (Duijnstee – Cashforce) trapten af met een (uiterst!) korte terugblik op 2017 want alle ogen waren eigenlijk al gericht op het progamma waarin de 3. Top-challenges 2018 voor corporate treasurers de revue zouden passeren.

Nicolas (Christiaen – Cashforce) gaf inzicht in wat er bij komt kijken om, in 6 stappen, een daadwerkelijk nauwkeurig en geautomatiseerd 1. Cash forecasting-proces in te richten. No more Excel!

Bart-Jan (Roelofsz – HERE Technologies) kwam letterlijk net uit ‘de vlieger’ uit Chicago stappen en kon gelijk door naar het podium waar hij een bijzonder aansprekende presentatie gaf over 2. Financing in het algemeen en de transitie van bedrijfsactiviteiten en opbouw van het Treasury en Finance Team in een snel groeiende organisatie. Top!

Alex (Goraieb – Thomson Reuters) nam het stokje over en gaf ons meer dan een kijkje in de wondere wereld van 3. Risk Management. Een wereldreis in de achtbaan van volatiele markten en valuta, via de onderliggende techniek van trading in grote posities naar een lesje ‘hoe selecteer ik de beste bank’. Well done!

En toen was het snel! naar de borrel want in het kader van ‘Act Global, drink Local’ stond het Ijndejaarsbier van Brouwerij ‘t Ij koud en op fust te wachten, en wat had iedereen toch een dorst gekregen…

Tijdens de borrel werden er meerdere robbertjes uitgevochten tijdens de Kick-off 2018 games op de Cashforce-voetbaltafel.

Voor hen die er waren, dank voor jullie komst en voor hen die er niet waren: volgend jaar een nieuwe kans want wat ons betreft zeker voor herhaling vatbaar!

Nicolas Christiaen

Managing Partner at Cashforce

Cash flow forecasting (CFFC)

23-05-2016 | by Udo Rademakers |

In recent years and months, we have seen quite a few companies coming into liquidity problems, leading in worst case scenario to insolvencies. This brings us to the question: how important is cash flow forecasting? How to anticipate adequately and to avoid facing “surprises” at the last moment and how should you implement it?
The Cash flow forecast (CFFC) estimates the timing and amounts of cash in- and outflows over a specific period and in different time buckets (day, week, month, year). It provides you with an actual overview of the cash position and with a forecast.

Why is a cash flow forecast important?

based on the CFFC you can assure the timely payment to your suppliers, employees and finance providers (at all times as you want to avoid liquidity problems!)
it can act as a management tool and “early warning system”
the analysis of actuals versus forecast helps you to identify possible problems (e.g. delay in invoicing to customers, late payments to suppliers)
the analysis of forecasts versus forecast helps you to identify the trend and to understand the business much better
the aggregated information shows if you are able to cover your financial obligations towards finance institutions/investors in the longer term and if your cash flow could meet the covenant targets or whether there will be a breach of credit facility limits. In case of a “cash rich” position it helps you to decide how much money and for which period you could invest it
A CFFC helps to identify foreign exchange exposures and it supports hedging decisions.

How to implement a CFFC?

Depending on the turnover, leverage, growth, systems, number of employees, internationality and currencies, the approach (and time effort) should fit the size of the organisation.

Cash flow forecasting often doesn’t have priority within organisations. However, as a treasurer, we realize the added value and need of it but also do realize that making a good CFFC could cost a lot of (time) effort. So how could we get a timely and reliable CFFC process in place without using all precious time of the finance managers?

automate where possible: use either sophisticated spreadsheets, but even better, a sophisticated web based application or use the functionalities of your Treasury Management System (and fine-tune it)
import centrally (via MT940) the actual banking balances where possible
use your (invoice payment due dates) AP/AR data for the short term FC
let fill out the “gaps” by finance managers based on their business knowledge
make sure everyone reports the latest data in time with an explanation of high impact changes and actual versus realisation differences
undertake actions where needed
consolidate the data, analyse the information and report the highlights to the senior management on a regular basis.

Udo Rademakers

Treasury Consultant