It’s India, you stupid

| 26-01-2018 | Rob Beemster |

In our daily business, we attend to corporations and institutions in their foreign activities.  We notice among our clients more and more attention and interest in India.  Several of our clients have invested in factories, what can be economically seen as Foreign Direct Investment in India. Others are increasing their sales and we also notice many newcomers who are firstly orientating on the country.

The policy of Prime Minister Modi is clearly opening the eyes of the international economic community. Indian corporates see chances of doing business abroad. These new economic partners built bridges to learn from each other, resulting in rising economic flows.

Many of our clients are active on the higher end of the agricultural value chain. They produce machines for vegetable processing, storage, cooling etc. India is known for its large waste of vegetable products; the government sees this as a big problem and it has to be eliminated. Collaboration of the Indians with institutions like the Worldbank and countries with decent knowledge in agriculture (like Holland ) are bound to find solutions to this waste issue. This “opening of doors” has resulted in the increase of Dutch corporate turnover with India.

And… there is a lot more to come. The spin-off from the agricultural segment to other segments can be enormous. India has tremendous opportunities for European corporations. The Dutch Embassy and the “Landbouwraad” in Delhi, are very active to help the Dutch in opening markets in India.

Non-Deliverable Forward

India has a much-regulated monetary system. Reserve Bank of India wants (full) control and insight on currency moves to or out of India. Hereby it has installed a so called non-deliverable forward system for off-shore rupee exchange. Currency hedging can be done, but not with regular forward contracts, where underlying amounts are bought and sold. At the end date of an NDF, the difference of the NDF price and the fixing is exchanged.

Currency risk

Very often the pricing in a tender and invoicing is done in Euro. So, one could say that currency risk is only ran by the Indian investor. “The European participants do not suffer due to eventual currency movements of Indian Rupee against the Euro”. One has to realize that if counterparty runs the full currency risk, there is still an indirect risk position for the supplier. So even the Euro receivers have to take a defensive stance.

Volatility

The necessity of taking care of the currency risk is because of the large volatility of the EUR/INR. It is dangerous to put all the risk at the Indian partner. Orders can be cancelled due to big swings in the value of the currencies. Profit margins of your client can diminish, which may end the relationship. The graph shows the rate moves of EUR/INR of the last five years. Even on short periods, large differences can be noticed. This should assure businesses to take full control of the currency risk. Rate changes of more than 10% within half a year have occurred several times.

Your guide in India

Transactional risk can be avoided by a good hedging structure. Economic currency risk on your long-term investment is another issue and has to be thoughtfully considered. Barcelona can help to make the hedging transparent. As said, hedging can be done but needs accurate and professional advice. Due to our experience in the Indian business of our clients, we are able to find the best solution for each trade or investment.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

 

2018 – the black swan could be China

| 21-12-2017 | Rob Beemster |

 

Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted to end 2017 at around $12 trillion, while the total debt to GDP is about 400%. The economic growth has been impressive as well is its nominal (but also relative) rise of the total debt.

The Chinese economy has grown from the start of its GATT membership in 1995 from around $750 bio to $12trl now. However, total credit grew much more, from around 100% of GDP in 2000 to more than 400% of GDP now.

 

Credit growth is still surging. This is one reason why the Chinese want their economy to expand at a speed of more than 10%. They need to hold this pattern for some years to come. When the Chinese government is able to put a brake on the growth of credit, GDP is allowed to decrease speed. We see comments from those in power about their wish to slow credit growth. But doing this is like changing the course of a tanker in a canal. In other words.

If Chinese GDP growth would decrease, and credit growth continues to surge, then a big disaster is to happen. The huge mountains of debt have to be financed, when this gets tougher, one can imagine that it will result in a Chinese economic slowdown.

If the credit bubble bursts, it will result in a devaluation of the yuan. This will have effect on the whole world economy. During the Asian crisis in 1997, China was a tiny economy, now it is huge. So not only mature economies like the ones of America and Europe will feel the pain but the surrounding countries and Africa will suffer heavily.

The outcome for the dollar overall, is fairly vague to me. Some economists see a Chinese devaluation as highly deflationary for the global economy and therefor a dollar bullish event. I have got doubts to the last part of that view. China has got an enormous stock of dollar bonds. It would not surprise me if they start selling these during an economic crisis.

If you are a corporation trading with China, 2018 might become an exciting year.  As said, my story is about a black swan so most probably this doom story will not happen. And I hope it will not. But:  hedging your currency flow is highly recommended. Even when you pay your producer in dollars or your Chinese client pays you in dollars, your risk is the CHINESE YUAN.  It is NOT a dollar risk. The same must be said if you transmit your goods with Euro.

Creating a decent yuan hedge will be very important. Again, it is not a dollar or euro risk. When the yuan devaluates, the costs have to be paid somewhere. Don’t let it be you!

Barcelona valuta experts can attend you in creating a decent risk process, so your cash flow will be protected.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

 

The treasurer plays with fire, when hedging foreign currencies to his sole gut feelings

| 24-11-2017 | Rob Beemster |

Hedging

 

The foreign exchange market is a highly volatile market and therefore full of surprises. For more than 20 years, I was a spot currency trader in the dealing room of a large international bank. One of the things I liked the most in being a trader was the unpredictability of the markets. Never a dull moment. The management of the bank gave us a lot of freedom, once you had proven the ability to handle this. But always we had to take care of some very important requirements, like the VAR (Value At Risk), and we had to protect our positions with stop-loss orders.

 

Executing a stop-loss was the worst part of my job. It proved that you had been wrong in judging a certain move of a currency. It sometimes felt like being a loser. However, executing at a stop-loss level gives you the freedom  to restart a new currency position.  We were never blamed by colleagues or the management for having executed a stop-loss. It was part of the risks, and by using a stop everyone knew that overall business would never be hurt.  If losses taken by stops were in line with the profits taken (relatively speaking) everything would be fine, considering that a good trader makes more positive decisions then negative ones.

Now let’s consider the controller who decides on his hedges, based on his gut feelings. Most probably this is based on old nonsensical ideas like, “what goes up must go down”, and, “It will come back to old levels”. Because of my business today, I speak with finance managers about their hedging strategies. Sometimes they make me feel embarrassed because of their self-created strategies; “I like to play foreign currency strategy myself”, or; “we have had good years and less good years”. From a business economic point of view this can be very painful. Volatility in foreign currencies is a very important component of international business. But one has to realize that this component can be managed. Companies should install a risk management procedure on their foreign currency exposure/obligations, to preserve their profit margins. A proper strategy not only protects the margins and cash flow but will also create prudency within the entire company.

A currency strategy is an implemented structure, necessary for the finance department. However, others that are responsible for the flows, like sales departments, procurement or production, should be involved and be aware of the importance of the strategy as well. Our models do describe the tasks of all the departments. A communication plan is part of the currency strategy. When the implemented processes are understood by everyone within the company, then and only then the strategy will work.

Our foreign currency risk models are very useful within international operating corporations.  We can help you to implement the processes that will secure cash flows. A controller, who makes decisions on FX out of the blue, is unacceptable and too dangerous for the continuity of the business, moreover, it is intolerable in modern finance departments.

Barcelona valuta experts can be of assistance to you. After precise research of the current status of your company we can implement the right models. And this will protect you against negative or unwelcome currency moves.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

Foreign currency hedging, a protection of cash flow

| 25-10-2017 | Rob Beemster |

Currency volatility is a well-known uncertain component of international business. In the pre-euro era one could suffer severely by currency movements of its European neighbours. Corporations, dealing within euro countries, have diminished the currency exposure.

A historical overview of the euro versus the us dollar

Looking back over the last 60 years, we can see that from 1958 till early 1970s there was  stability due to the Bretton Woods golden standard. At the end of this, the Vietnam War made it impossible to keep the dollar relation to gold. Early 1980s, the Reagan administration introduced a new economic policy; Reaganomics. Lower taxes and high governmental expenditure. This created a huge mess in America’s monetary situation. Interest rates went to enormous heights, the dollar climbed to unknown levels against the yen and European currencies. American exporters could not sell their products due to this high dollar.

Why the attention to Reaganomics? Well, the Trump administration is a vigorous trailer of the Reagan policy. Lower taxes might be introduced soon and Mr Trump also wants to invest heavily in infrastructure. Obvious, some similarities with Reagan. The new helm of the Federal Reserve Board will soon be appointed. When the board will have more hawks than doves, interest rates might raise sooner than expected. This might have consequences for the dollar and we may see here a reflection of the early 1980s.

 Trump and the us dollar

It is known that President Trump regularly protests to so-called currency manipulators like China and Germany. Their trade policies are in his view unacceptable. Due to this view of Trump on currencies, it will be questionable whether he would tolerate a higher dollar at all. The highly unpredictable Trump policy makes it impossible to judge in what direction the dollar will manoeuvre.

 The highly volatile euro/us dollar

The dollar has fluctuated severely since the euro introduction in 1999. ECB’s first President, Mr Duisenberg was facing tough times as the euro went from its introduction level of 1.17 to the low of 0.8350 a couple of years later. His world trip to recommend the euro as world reserve currency  has realized a demand from authorities to stock euro’s in their currency reserve system. The aggressive build-up of FX reserves by Asian monetary authorities has helped to revitalize the euro. Duisenberg made it happen that the currency went up from low 0.80s to almost 1.60 against us dollar in a couple of years. This occurred not so long ago!

 Two examples of neglected currency risk

1, many corporations have changed its landscape to the global market. A lot of exporters are billing their products in euros. A currency risk is obvious when these companies focus on one target area. Clients may find the products too expensive when euro is rising. So one runs indirectly a currency risk. Many countries have linked their currency to the dollar, so a change in the euro/us dollar may have consequence on your sales.

2, trading with China and agreeing to do the transfer in dollars, does not really mean that the risk exposure is in dollars. The transfer risk is in dollars, but the real currency risk is in yuan. Say, the European importer buys goods from China and both have agreed to do the payments in dollars. The Chinese counterparty will adjust the price of the goods when yuan moves against the dollar. The European corporation should install an us dollar/yuan currency risk hedging policy.

Don’t underestimate the course of currencies

Being an active international corporation is not easy, many components are changing markets constantly. Internet makes markets more transparent then ever thought, automation changes the landscape, consumer behaviour is sometimes not logical and newcomers/interrupters create new markets. Within this one has to deal with currency volatility. But this is a component one can conduct. Foreign currency strategy is essential for any internationally active corporation. Currency volatility cannot be underestimated and needs control.

Barcelona valuta experts can help you to create a decent foreign currency strategy. Call us on +31.654981315 or mail us via [email protected] for more information.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

Indian Rupee remains very vulnerable

| 04-10-2017 | Rob Beemster |

The Indian rupee has suffered in September severely. In our report we name the issues resulting to the weakening. International companies in India and those trading with India face severe danger from these currency moves. This article will give you an insight how to handle this.

What has changed India in recent months?

It seems latest macro-economic data in India have changed the outlook on its currency. The country is well-beloved due to its place under the economic and international sidelines. Apart from drastic measures taken by the government on monetary and fiscal front, the country is usually not on the forefront of economic papers like other BRICS partners.

What has caused the different outlook on the rupee?    

A, a rise in CPI inflation ( to 2.4% for July from 1.5% in June )

B, a meagre April-June, 2017 GDP report showing a three year low in growth of 5.7% YoY ( 6.1% in the previous quarter ) This is the fourth consecutive quarter with slowing growth

C, signals of a fiscal deficit above the 3.2% GDP target in the running fiscal year

D, almost a year after demonetisation, M3 and bank lending growth remain well below pre-demonetisation levels, a sign of tight liquidity conditions are hurting businesses

Investors and other members of the financial communities dislike a combination of factors A and B. This has resulted in the fall of INR against euro and dollar in September. Although INR is still one of the most popular Emerging Market currencies, a continuation of disappointing economic data might change this international feeling towards INR.  According to RBI data, the recent depreciation is in partly due to equity and bond portfolio outflows.

What to do?

Be aware of a volatile INR. The currency has lost some of its popularity, due to the facts named above. Future is always insecure, take North Korea vs. Trump, how will Brexit change Europe etc. These issues will most certainly have an impact on the dollar and Euro, so may affect the INR as well.

An international trading company, during these unsteady times, should take care of international currency flows. From Sept 8 till Sept 27, INR lost 3 % against the USD. This could be a big stake of the profit margin!

We can help you designing the right structure, whereby a strategy will protect you from harmful currency moves. A lower INR can slam your profit, we help you avoiding this. We know the Indian market. Call us on +31228528579 or mail us via [email protected] and we will help you to solve your currency risk.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

 

Lessons to learn: a higher euro threatens corporate Europe; how to handle this

| 26-9-2017 | Rob Beemster |

Do you run a business in Europe and the world is your market? Then you must face jitters due to the currency developments in the US and UK. The huge impact of Brexit on the sterling has seen a devaluation of around 30% against the Euro. The US dollar has weakened some 15% compared to early 2017.

These currency moves will be welcomed when you are importing from the US and/or UK. However, when you are exporter, than you don’t feel jitters but the pain will seriously hurt you. Many exporters see their UK/US  market share diminish, or maybe even disappear.  Normally, when a currency of an export market drifts down ( so the own currency gets more expensive ) we see price adjustments of the exporter.

First he will decrease his own margins, then he seeks price adjustments of his suppliers. After that , the whole chain will be analysed to look for improvements and cutbacks.

The Chinese have a saying that every crisis offers new chances. What chances would a weaker sterling and weaker dollar offer European exporters?

A, analysing the whole value chain, may offer new insights whereby you can create higher and/or cheaper production Most probably, these insights can give opportunities to improve your sales to other markets as well. Improving  your chain, constantly, is a very wise technique to stay ahead of your competition.  Before the introduction of the Euro, Germany worked on  this strategy for years. Bundesbank was a strong supporter of a firm German mark, so German exporters had to be aggressive and innovative to keep their business alive.

B, doing business outside the Euro territory brings currency risk. This is a component of your business you have to face. However, currency risk on new and running orders can be hedged. By doing so, you will protect your cash flow ( read profit ).  When profit margins are low, it is extremely important to have a good currency strategy. But even when margins are fairly high, a long currency move may take off your market share. Sterling has gone down for almost 2 years now. So a “safe market” should be hedged with a currency strategy too. A lucrative market may drift away by an ignorant behaviour of exporters.

Barcelona valuta experts can help you installing a decent currency strategy. We do not look for the cheapest way of doing your transactions but we look to your whole currency process. In the graph, below, you will notice that currency risk is present during the whole process. We can help you from the first step:  the offer to prospects till last payments are done.

We have a very interesting proposition for you, a free currency scan. After answering six easy questions, we can judge your currency overall / risk position. We will discuss the result with you, all without any obligation. Are you interested?  Call us on +31228528579 or mail to [email protected] and we will pass you the questionnaire.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

 

 

Trump’s determination to protect American business

| 14-8-2017 | Rob Beemster |

 

Many negative issues surround the President of the United States.  Approval rating hits new low,  surprise on his erratic conduct seems to grow daily. Trump is a unique politician. He is incomparable to any other western political leader. I want to pinpoint his monetary policy in 2017, by looking at the pattern of the dollar so far this year.

The dollar in 2017

Currency pair             January 2017              August 2017               Relative decrease USD

EUR/USD                    1.05                            1.18                            12.4%

AUD/USD                    0.72                            0.80                            11.1%

GBP/USD                    1.22                            1.32                            8.2%

USD/JPY                      1.18                            1.10                            6.8%

USD/CNY                    6.96                            6.70                            3.7%

Maybe Mr Trump does have a foreign economic policy.

He sees the results of Chinese manipulation and soft American response as an unfair trade relationship. The President of the US must do something about these unbalances. At least, this is how Trump judges.

Let’s take into account this Potus is a streetfighter. Long bilateral meetings with the Chinese are not options for Trump. Fast and furious, that it is: Bring the dollar down!!
And this is going on for half a year now. It is going the Trump way. Tough (but efficient)!

How to see the future value of the dollar?

The current outlook for the dollar against its main trading relations is related to some issues:

–          Process of QE by ECB, and  Euro interest rates

–          North Korea

–          China’s position in this geopolitical stress

–          Economic conditions of the US

–          Economic conditions of the main trading partners of the US

These are very important to determine the future value of the dollar. But this is the holistic view, we are all used to. Let’s be flexible and take a different stance. Just conclude as Trump will do. Be his alter ego.Then the most important issues are:

–          Pattern of the Euro against the dollar and the bilateral trade balance between US and Germany

–          China’s reaction to a lower dollar

–          US trade balance

–          US corporates repatriation of overseas cash

–          US investments to produce within America

–          FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in America

This is a totally different scope. If we want to understand Trump, then we have to use his view on the international arena. The above mentioned bullet points are crucial. All can easily be measured, Trump loves that. I would like to go through these points to be able to clarify the possible outcome of the dollar for the coming time.

Pattern of the Euro against the dollar and the bilateral trade balance between US and Germany

The more than 12% revaluation will have a serious impact on the trade balance between US and Germany. When the correction emerges, Trump might temper his view on Germany. When we notice correction in the trade data, the dollar has gone far enough…

China’s reaction to a lower dollar

So far the yuan has gained some territory but not as much as other major currencies rose against the dollar. How will PBOC and the Chinese Government react on Trump’s wishes to correct the trade balance by a devaluation of the dollar against the yuan? If they take action on Trump’s stated requirements, whatever this may be, then pressure may diminish.

US trade balance

For many years the US  faces a deficit on its trade balance. The more than $500 billion yearly shortage is a notable pain point. If a remarkable achievement can be noticed on short term, a more relaxed dollar attitude may be expected.

US corporates repatriation of overseas cash

In history, attempts have been organised by US governments to return overseas cash of US corporations. During President Bush jr Presidency, corporations did repatriate cash. When Trump does decrease the corporate tax tariff to  15% and he rewards the US corps to transfer their money back to the US without any other penalty payments, a large repatriation may get going. Many of these funds will until now be held in local currencies, so a switch to the dollar may occur.

US corps return back to America

Trump has ordered US companies to produce in the US instead of overseas. If he becomes successful by bringing factories back to the US, the trade balance will shift, employment will improve. Also when large repatriation is done, these funds can be invested in local factories.

FDI in America

Many non-US corporations are scared by the threat of the US government that regulations like import tariffs and other taxes may be charged on imports. It will damage the advantage corporations have experienced last couple of years due to the high dollar. If special import tariffs are installed, investments may be done in the US to avoid these special expenditures. Onshore producing on American soil will become an alternative.

How to manage this?

Foreign currency management has always been a hard part of the international business. Currency moves are unpredictable. But since Trump, one has to be aware of non-economic issues as well. Note that all the above mentioned issues can have effect on the value of the dollar. Professional guidance of your flows is becoming more and more important. Barcelona valuta experts helps you to install a decent strategy to counter unpredicted events. We guide you in protecting the cash flow.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV