Financial decision-making under uncertainty

| 19-07-2016 | Willem van Overveld |

wolkenkrabberOne of the drawbacks of modern financial modeling in its most rudimentary form (projected P&L, Balance Sheet and Cash-flow statement) is the absence of uncertainty in the equation. Let’s presume you have built an excel model where all the common financial statements are present, accompanied by a capital budget and a loan sheet. With relational checks between accounting statements, you as the financial analyst manage to keep all these statements neatly tied together.

Although you assume you have done a good job, you have to remind that you only have plotted one of the many millions of possible outcome scenarios in the forecast. It would be absurd to base your financial decision-making on just one of the millions of possible outcome scenarios, if you have the computing power to calculate more, and say something about a frequency distribution.

By introducing uncertainty in the financial model, it becomes possible to get a grip on the likelihood of simultaneous deviations from your original financial planning. This means that you have to randomize key financial parameters within a specified bandwidth, using an excel formula RND(…,…) and calculate many thousands of possible combinations.

This method is known as Monte Carlo Simulation. Instead of discrete modeling you get a distribution of returns which can lead to statistically better informed judgements. Let’s say you want to specify a growth bandwidth between -1% and 3%, and an interest rate bandwidth between -1 and 4%. In addition your inflation index on salaries is somewhere between 2% and 5%. You want to calculate 100.000 combinations of these randomized parameters in steps of 0,1% or smaller. The result would look like a graph like this.

graphmontecarlo

By using statistical techniques you can say something about the shape and skewness of the frequency distribution and the likelihood of a certain scenario bandwidth at a certain point in time.

AT-MonteCarlo1a

Ultimately with some simple tools, this analysis gives a greater insight in the likelihood of crossing boundaries in the loan convenants that you agreed upon with your bank. If you can say: ‘with 97% certainty we stay within the agreed upon boundaries in the financing arrangement, given 100.000 different scenario’s with a bandwidth of x’, gives more reassurance to a bank than saying: ‘in this discrete model our prospects are good’.

In tight capital markets this type of modeling could make the difference between making the deal or not. If you want to know more about the methodology, do not hesitate to contact me under the credentials given below.

willemvanoverveld1Willem van Overveld – Allround finance / treasury professional

[social_links size=”normal” align=”” email=”[email protected]” facebook=”” twitter=”” google=”” linkedin=”https://www.linkedin.com/in/willemvanoverveld” youtube=”” vimeo=”” flickr=”” instagram=”” behance=”” pinterest=”” skype=”” tumblr=”” dribbble=”” vk=”” xing=”” soundcloud=”” yelp=”” twitch=”” deviantart=”” foursquare=”” github=”” rss=””]

treasuryXL : Education & Training

| 18-07-2016 | treasuryXL |

holidayThe holiday season is finally here! While relaxing on the beach in Ibiza or making new memories in Bali, take some time to think about your career. Wait, what? Yes, do some thinking about your career between cocktails and sunbathing. Maybe it’s time to take your career to the next level by freshen up your knowledge or learning something new. treasuryXL has collected some of the education programs that take place in September.

1 September 2016 : Opleiding Treasury Management @ Nive Opleidingen

Praktijkgerichte beroepsopleiding tot Qualified Treasurer (QT)

Date: 1 september 2016
Costs: € 7.650; ex BTW
Location: Buitenplaats De Heiligenberg, Leusden

Read more

14 September 2016 : Introduction Hedge Accounting @ Wieltec Treasury Services

Training: Introduction Hedge Accounting – 14 september 2016.

Date: 14 September 2016, From 13:00-17:00
Costs: EUR 399,- (excl. VAT) per participant
Location: Van der Valk Hotel, Haagse Schouw 141, Leiden

Read more

15 September 2016 : Cash forecasting fundamentals @ ACT

Is it for you? Yes, if you’re:

  • New to treasury or financial planning
  • Experienced in treasury or financial planning, but want to review and update your forecasting skills and knowledge
  • A member of treasury or financial planning tasked with reviewing or redesigning your cash forecast framework and processes

Date: 15 September 2016
Costs: ACT members, students and CPD accredited employers £750 + VAT, Other treasury/accountancy body members £800 + VAT, Non members £850 + VAT
Location: London

Read more

22-23 September 2016 : Treasury Accounting, Performance and Control @ Zanders

This course focuses on creating a secure and effective treasury controlling framework. It addresses the elements of a sound treasury governance structure, including the significance of an effective treasury strategy and policy, and the role of the treasury controller. We use the controlling framework to show how to measure the performance and effectiveness of the treasury function.

Date: 22-23 September 2016
Costs: € 1.500,00 ex VAT
Location: Amsterdam, the Netherlands

Read more

[separator type=”” size=”” icon=””]

See our event calendar for more education and treasury related events. Would you like to bring your event / course under the attention of our treasury community? Please contact our community manager Stephanie to discuss the possibilities.

treasuryXL wishes you a great summer!

[separator type=”” size=”” icon=””]

Stephanie DerkseStephanie Derkse – Community Manager treasuryXL
[social_links size=”normal” align=”” email=”[email protected]” facebook=”” twitter=”” google=”” linkedin=”https://nl.linkedin.com/in/stephanie-derkse-95b76925″ youtube=”” vimeo=”” flickr=”” instagram=”” behance=”” pinterest=”” skype=”” tumblr=”” dribbble=”” vk=”” xing=”” soundcloud=”” yelp=”” twitch=”” deviantart=”” foursquare=”” github=”” rss=””]

Blockchain in Cashmanagement

| 15-07-2016 | Olivier Werlingshoff , treasuryXL |

blockchain

 

Blockchain, het gaat de gehele financiële sector veranderen. Administratie 3.0. Bijna iedereen heeft er wel iets over gehoord of gelezen, Blockchain is ‘trending’. Volgens de PaymentEye was Blockchain het gesprek van de dag op de Tech Open Air conference in Berlijn. Wij speurden het internet af naar een definitie en vroegen expert Olivier Werlingshoff naar Blockchain in zijn werkveld: Cashmanagement.

 

Blockchain – de Definitie

Dit is de definitie die Wikipedia geeft:
“Een blockchain (soms naar het Nederlands vertaald als blokketen) is een gedistribueerde database die een gestaag groeiende lijst bijhoudt van data-items die gehard zijn tegen manipulatie en vervalsing. Zelfs de beheerder van nodes kan deze gegevens niet vervalsen. Dit komt door het gedistribueerde systeem.”

Investopedia zegt het volgende:
“To use conventional banking as an analogy, the blockchain is like a full history of banking transactions. Bitcoin transactions are entered chronologically in a blockchain just the way bank transactions are. Blocks, meanwhile, are like individual bank statements.”

Blockchain – de Ontwikkeling

Blockchain werd in het begin onthaald met veel hoera-geroep, alles zou gaan veranderen binnen de financiële sector. Nog steeds is het een fenomeen dat veel interesse wekt maar toch verschijnen er hier en daar berichten waar pas op de plaats gemaakt wordt. Het zou nog te vroeg zijn om er je voordeel uit te halen, Blockchain is nog niet volgroeid.  (bron: rtlz.nl)

Blockchain in Cash Management

Olivier WerlingshoffOlivier Werlingshoff: Basis van blockchain is dat er een er een grote mate van transparantie ontstaat tussen de verschillende deelnemers. Op het vlak van Cash Management kan dit voordelen opleveren bij zaken waar veelvuldig gecontroleerd wordt, zoals bij overboekingen.

Door blockchain kunnen overboekingen sneller uitgevoerd worden en omdat er minder partijen betrokken hoeven te worden, zullen kosten dalen. Als je het breder trekt zou dit ook van invloed kunnen zijn op de check van gegoedheid van debiteuren en crediteuren.  Omdat de gegoedheid van deze door alle deelnemers bekend wordt geacht zal de zekerheid hiervan stijgen. Kortom op Cash Management vlak kan Block Chain zeker voordelen opleveren.

Zie hieronder het artikel dat de PaymentEye publiceerde over Blockchain op de Tech Open Air conference in Berlijn:

 

Treasury ABC Part II

| 14-07-2016 | Jan Doosje |

S059QDGBOG

 

For many people Treasury is, as they think, something that is not concerning. Because there are many items that could be mentioned and listed here, I chose to mention the items that have effect on our daily lives, even if we are not aware of the existence of the described item. Last week I started off with the first part of the treasury ABC which I’ll call the Treasury ABC for normal citizens. 

 

F is for Floor

A floor is a technical term for an interest option. When buying a floor you are “ensured” to receive an interest rate at the level you pay for. Even if the actual interest is lower, you will be compensated for the difference.

G is for Gold Standard

A Gold standard is the monetary system where a currency unit is equal to a certain weight of gold. So, for every banknote the central bank has a stock in its bank safes. The system of the Gold Standard no longer exists.

H is for Hedge fund

A Hedge fund is a fund that has the purpose of lowering risk for a restricted group of investors by buying and selling shares. When the market as a whole goes down, a hedge fund tries to keep on the same level/rate as the hedge fund started with so the investors are “ensured” to get their investment back without a loss. Nowadays hedge funds are also sometimes speculating and can be confronted with big losses when the hedge fund manager doesn’t do his job right. Be sure of all risks and opportunities before you step into a hedge fund.

I is for Instrument

Not every instrument is made for the making of music. Looking in the perspective of treasury an instrument is used to achieve a goal from the investor e.g. lowering risk or optimize rentability. Treasury instruments can be divided for the following purposes:

  1. Interest risks
  2. Interest swaps
  3. Forward rate agreements
  4. Options
  1. Currency risks
  2. Options
  3. Currency swaps
  4. Forward contract
  5. Money market instrument

J is for Jumbo.

In 1972 the United States Department of the Treasury issued a Jumbo Bronze medeal Huge 8 ounces. This is the category of useful information.

Talking to our readers and contributors we have noticed that there are treasury related words with many different understandings. We’ve asked Jan Doosje to kick off a treasury ABC. Of course this is not binding and there are letters which can be connected to several treasury related words We need your input to make a complete treasury ABC. Would you like to contribute to the treasury ABC? Please contact our community manager Stephanie Derkse.

Jan Doosje

 

Jan Doosje

Owner of Fimterim Advies & Consultancy

treasuryXL, our first steps

| 13-07-2016 | Stephanie Derkse |

coffeelaptopAlmost 3 months ago, treasuryXL went live. Not knowing how people would respond, we pushed the buttons and worked our hardest to make treasuryXL a success.  Since then we’ve learned something new everyday by publishing fresh content everyday and keeping in contact with you, the treasury community. I’m really proud of what we have reached so far and we will continue to improve treasuryXL. Your ideas and suggestions are always welcome!

We’re looking for experts

We are expanding our community with authors and editors. Are you an expert on one (or more) of the topics below? Do you have a business case, opinion, informative article or something else on this topic you would like to share with the treasury community? Please contact me to discuss the details.

  • Project finance
  • FX / Money Market / Risk / Commodities
  • Treasury for non treasurers
  • TMS & Banking Software
  • Regulators / Basel III / Emir
  • Macro Economy
  • Fintech
  • Cash Management
  • Financing (alternative, balance)

We also love to fire up a discussion by publishing something about current affairs and asking our experts to respond.

What’s in it for you?

Exposure. We will make you a treasuryXL expert profile and, when you’re a company owner, a company page. These will appear below every article you write and appear in the newsletter every once in a while as well.
We also offer several advertising possibilities, check out our pricelist or contact me.

Stay up to date

Stay up to date by subscribing to our weekly update, follow our LinkedIn and Twitter pages and adding treasuryxl.com to your favourites.

[separator type=”” size=”” icon=””]

Stephanie DerkseStephanie Derkse – Community Manager

[social_links size=”normal” align=”” email=”[email protected]” facebook=”” twitter=”” google=”” linkedin=”https://nl.linkedin.com/in/stephanie-derkse-95b76925″ youtube=”” vimeo=”” flickr=”” instagram=”” behance=”” pinterest=”” skype=”” tumblr=”” dribbble=”” vk=”” xing=”” soundcloud=”” yelp=”” twitch=”” deviantart=”” foursquare=”” github=”” rss=””]

Brexit: Winnaars en Verliezers

| 12-07-2016 | Roger Boxman |

brexit
Op 23 juni 2016 besloot het Verenigd Koninkrijk middels een referendum om uit de Europese Unie te stappen. Nu we een paar weken verder zijn, kijken we samen met Roger Boxman hoe het er nu voor staat. Wie zijn de winnaars en zijn de verliezers? 



De Verliezers

De Verliezers zijn de Britse consument en het consumentenvertrouwen. Het eerste gevolg van de Brexit was de prijsverhoging aan de pomp als gevolg van de lagere pond. Andere verliezers zijn de vastgoedinvesteerders. Er zijn nu al 10 fondsen “op slot”. Een teken dat de internationale investeerder zijn geld terug wil trekken. Een andere verliezer is de Poolse loodgieter die nu korter mag verblijven in het Verenigd Koninkrijk.

De Winnaars

De winnaars zijn in dit geval de Britse producten. Britse exporteurs zijn per saldo goedkoper uit. Een cadeautje voor de maakindustrie. Op termijn liggen de zaken gecompliceerder. De Britse invloed zal afnemen op het Europese besluitvormingsproces. ‘The City’ zal niet meer de onbetwiste financiële metropool zijn van weleer. Het zwaartepunt binnen Europa verschuift naar het zuidoosten. Engeland heeft het de komende periode vooral druk met zichzelf. Onafhankelijk van Brussel, dat wel.

Voor de Europese Unie betekent de Brexit niet alleen een verlies van 55 miljoen consumenten. Het is vooral een waarschuwing van de burger dat geforceerde aansluiting bij Europa en opgave van binnenlandse beslissingsbevoegdheid, risico’s van vervreemding met zich meebrengt. De Brusselse technocraten zullen hier hoe dan ook de burger meer moeten aanspreken. Of dat gaat lukken is de vraag.

Roger Boxman

 

Roger Boxman

Interim Risk Manager specialised in Treasury and Financial Risk Management

 

Treasury ABC – part I

| 08-07-2016 | Jan Doosje |

S059QDGBOG

 

For many people Treasury is, as they think, something that is not concerning. Because there are many items that could be mentioned and listed here, I chose to mention the items that have effect on our daily lives, even if we are not aware of the existence of the described item. I’ll call it the Treasury ABC for normal citizens. 

 

A is for Asset management

Asset management is the management of, amongst others, supervision and investing of and in (mostly) big portfolios of shares, obligations and other financial instruments. The goal is to increase the invested funds by making a high return. Pension funds depend on their return of investment to fulfill their commitment to participants of the pension fund. Bad results can affect your monthly income when you are entitled to pension.

B is for Bond

This is not only for James and his family. Bonds are issued by national governments to satisfy their need for funds. Depending the grade of a country, the return on a bond can vary. Be sure, if the interest rate is high, risk will also be high. Don’t jump into “junk bonds” because it can cost you a lot of money.

C is for Currency rate

A currency rate is the conversion rate between one currency and another. For example: USD/EURO. When the currency rate is > 1, you will get more dollars for your euros. When the currency rate is <1, you will get less dollars for your euros. Suppose the currency rate USD/EURO is 1,11 and you go shopping in New York. If the price is $ 100, you will see on our bank account a withdrawel of € 90,01.

D is for Dollar

The US Dollar was born on September 8th, 1775. Some people believe that the name comes from the Dutch (daalder) or from the German “Taler”. However, the USD still is the most important currency in the world despite the Yen, Euro or Chinese Yuan.

The price of the dollar is influenced by :
* Supply and demand factors
* Sentiment and market psychology
* Technical factors

E is for Euro

The Euro is a new currency, which was born in Maastricht while the treaty of 1993 was signed. Virtual the Euro came into existence in 1999 while the notes and coins came into circulation as of January 1st 2002. Before the Euro, the European countries were divided in their currencies.  “We” had Austrian Schilling, Belgian Franc, Cypriot Pound, Dutch Guilder, Estonian Kroon, Finnish Markka, French Franc, German Mark, Greek Drachma, Irish Pound, Italian Lira, Latvian Lats, Lithuanian Litas, Luxembourg Francs, Maltese Lira, Monegaque Franc, Portuguese escudo, Sammarinese Lira, Slovak Koruna, Slovenian Tolar, Spanish Peseta and Vatican Lira. Imagine the lack of transparency before the Euro existed.

Next week we’ll proceed with part II of the treasury ABC for normal citizens.

Talking to our readers and contributors we have noticed that there are treasury related words with many different understandings. We’ve asked Jan Doosje to kick off a treasury ABC. Of course this is not binding and there are letters which can be connected to several treasury related words We need your input to make a complete treasury ABC. Would you like to contribute to the treasury ABC? Please contact our community manager Stephanie Derkse.[social_links size=”normal” align=”” email=”[email protected]”]

Jan Doosje

 

Jan Doosje

Owner of Fimterim Advies & Consultancy

8 Career Hurdles in a Transfer from Banking to Corporate Treasury

| 07-07-2016 | Pieter de Kiewit |

careerAn increasing number of bankers come to my recruitment desk wanting to make a transfer to corporate treasury. This transfer can be made successfully but there are a number of things to take into account. Below the 8 career hurdles, I hear most about, in a transfer from banking to corporate treasury. 

 

8 Career Hurdles in a Transfer from Banking to Corporate Treasury:

  1. Understand the essential difference – Corporate treasury is about supporting the core business, banking is the core business;
  2. Translate the lingo I – Banks use different words; they talk about “transaction services” for the payment infrastructure. Within a corporate this term is often used the way auditors do for due diligence processes in M&A;
  3. Translate the lingo II – Banks give different meaning to the same words. An easy example is “treasury”. This is only financial markets related within a bank and a description of the whole department within a corporate environment;
  4. Bankers do not leave their vertical – Due to the size of banks, bankers can be specialized in one area and often do not leave their field. Corporate treasuries are often small and need generalists;
  5. Bankers are paid better – It is what it is.
  6. Corporate treasurers are not in the center of attention – Being in a supportive role, they often do not get the same respect bankers get;
  7. Banks provide a more extensive support infrastructure – The level of support in HR, legal, IT and other aspects banks can provide, is often not available for corporate treasurers;
  8. Bankers have to deal with the stigma – That they are overpaid, vain, lazy, inflexible, not hands-on and one cannot trust them.

Non of these hurdles are, in my perception, deal breakers. Bankers are often well-educated, hard-working, smart and business savvy potential colleagues that can really contribute. First, they have to deal with the above by themselves. They have to be convinced they want make the transfer for the right reasons. Then they can translate this in a proper labour market communication strategy and find the corporates that have dealt with the above.

It can be done, I am available for support. What do you think?

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

De markt is veranderd.

| 06-07-2016 | René Schilder |

marktDe afgelopen week zijn er grote verschillen gezien in de koers van de Britse pond na de uitslag van het referendum. In januari 2015 werd de markt ook al eens verrast door een onverwachte gebeurtenis: De Zwitserse Centrale Bank (SNB) veroorzaakte toen een schokgolf met het onverwacht loslaten van de ‘peg’ tussen de EUR en de CHF.

De paniek die toen ontstond op de valutamarkt zorgde ervoor dat er geen koers van EURCHF bekend was. Dit betekende dat het op dat moment niet mogelijk was om een transactie af te sluiten voor EURCHF. De grote les die toen door marktpartijen is geleerd, is het onderling opnieuw afstemmen van de exacte definitie van een order. Een stop loss order kan voor een grote afwijking (verlies) zorgen (er zijn meerdere brokers die dag failliet gegaan vanwege deze gebeurtenis). In de week voor het Britse referendum hebben meerdere banken een signaal afgegeven aan partijen die werken met FX orders hier zeer voorzichtig mee om te gaan.

Banken zijn altijd een zeer actieve marktpartij geweest in de valutahandel. De grootbanken hadden zelfs een proprietary desk. Hier handelde men voor ‘eigen rekening en risico’. Deze handelaren kwamen in actie als er grote bewegelijkheid was in de markt. Men nam orders op hun eigen boek voor een aantal uren/dagen in verwachting dat als de rust op de markt zou terug keren de liquidatie van deze order een betere prijs voor hen zou opleveren. Deze proprietary desks zijn altijd een betrouwbare vorm van liquiditeit geweest. Door veranderende regelgeving is het voor banken tegenwoordig verboden om aan proprietary trading te doen.

Tegenwoordig werken marktpartijen ook met ‘algorithmic orders’, dit is automatische executie via handelssystemen (in het verlengde daarvan heeft High Frequency Trading ook de FX markt ontdekt). Dit zorgt er in de praktijk voor dat bij onverwachte gebeurtenissen iedereen op hetzelfde moment door dezelfde deur naar buiten wil. Voorbeeld hiervan was afgelopen 7 juni 2016, toen de GBP tegen de USD binnen 1 minuut meer dan 1,5 % in waarde steeg. Binnen een paar minuten was die winst weer verdwenen. Reden = onbekend. De veranderende markt heeft dus een impact op liquiditeit.

Doordat veel handel tegenwoordig elektronisch is, kan een gerucht al snel voor een paniekreactie zorgen. Als dat dan later niet wordt bevestigd, blijft de transactie gewoon staan en kan een gevoel van slechte timing achterblijven. Bij dit soort marktsentimenten is het zeer aan te bevelen risico’s die afgedekt moeten worden zo snel mogelijk uit te voeren en niet te speculeren op een beter moment. De ervaring leert dat zelfs de echte professionals daar hun vingers niet aan willen (en mogen) branden.

Voor bedrijven en financiële instellingen die hedging policies voor hun treasury hebben, is nu een belangrijk moment om te kijken of deze goed hebben gefunctioneerd over de afgelopen periode.
Zorg dat de mandaten die er zijn voor executie, helder en transparant zijn omschreven. Juist in deze periode mag er geen enkele twijfel bestaan over wat van de mensen die op de treasury werken wordt verwacht. Veel handel is tegenwoordig computergestuurd (ook bij de banken) en dan kan een goede controle geen overbodige luxe zijn. Voor alle Nederlandse bedrijven die internationaal opereren is de boodschap hetzelfde: neem de tijd om goed in kaart te brengen welke financiële risico’s er zijn, nu deze markten wereldwijd grote schommelingen laten zien.

De economische gevolgen van de Brexit zijn moeilijk in te schatten op dit moment. Er zijn heel veel vragen en de komende maanden zal daar stap voor stap duidelijkheid over ontstaan. Dit zal dus zeker een bepaalde mate van onzekerheid met zich meebrengen, die zich zal vertalen in een grotere volatiliteit dan wanneer er minder onzekerheid is. Dit betekent voor ondernemingen dat men meer kosten voor hedging zal zien omdat de spreads op de handelsplatformen groter zullen zijn. Neem daarbij het voorbeeld van de afgelopen dagen dat verdere onverwachte ontwikkelingen opnieuw voor zeer grote beweeglijkheid kunnen zorgen op aandelen-, rente-, grondstoffen- en valutakoersen.

Focus voor een onderneming moet gericht zijn op zijn core business, daar wordt dagelijks het geld verdiend. Het speculeren met ‘open’ posities kan grote gevolgen hebben. In de praktijk is het namelijk één van de moeilijkste beslissingen om bij een verkeerde keuze op tijd de beslissing te herzien en het verlies te accepteren.

Voor bedrijven die nog geen regels hebben opgesteld voor hoe men bepaalde risico’s afdekt, is er na de gebeurtenissen van vorige week geen excuus meer om hier geen prioriteit aan te geven.

[separator type=”” size=”” icon=””]

reneschilder1René Schilder – Co Owner at 2FX Treasury BV

[button url=”http://www.treasuryxl.com/community/experts/rene-schilder/” text=”View expert profile” size=”” type=”primary” icon=”” external=”1″]

FX Swaps vs Libor and EURIBOR: Arbitrage opportunities?

| 05-07-2016 | Rob Söentken |

fxswaps

 

As we are getting closer to the end of the month, end of Q2 and end of H1 of 2016, it is interesting to see financial markets are maneuvering to get the right liquidity on board for the balance sheet. Or get rid of the unwanted liquidity. For firms with liquidity in various currencies the best means for liquidity management is FX swaps.

 

What is an FX swap?

In a very simple definition the FX swap is like an exchange of deposits. The big advantage is that the counterparty risk is reduced due to the exchange of notional. Operationally an FX swap is booked as two FX transactions: one to convert and another to revert. The conversion rate is against the prevailing exchange rate. The reversion rate is against the conversion rate plus or minus some ‘swap points’, which reflect the interest rate differential between the respective currencies. During the tenor the exchange rate could change, which creates counterparty risk on the mark-to-market value of the reversion. Mark-to-market risk for tenors up to 1 year is still a small when compared to full notional risk.

How would an FX swap work in theory?

In diagram 1 the Libor and Euribor fixings for USD and EUR are listed for the respective tenors. Now if we would consider exchanging a USD deposit versus a EUR deposit for 1 year the cash flows would be as follows:
For the conversion date we take value spot (ie 2 days, in this case that is per June 30th) and we agree to exchange EUR 1 Mio vs USD 1.1048 Mio (because EUR 1 Mio at current spot of 1.1048 is USD 1.1048 Mio)

For the reversion date we take the value date for 1 year from today’s spot date. We calculate the following amounts including interest:

EUR 1 Mio x (1 + -0.05% x 365 / 360) =                     EUR 999,493.06

USD 1.1048 Mio x (1 + 1.20% x 365 / 360) =         USD 1,118,241.73

Dividing the USD amount by the EUR amount gives the exchange rate for the reversion on the forward date, in this case that is 1.1188089. This is called the ‘forward rate’ The difference to the spot exchange rate is 0.0140089. For simplicity reasons this is multiplied by 10,000 to 140.089. This reflects the interest differential.

When executing an FX swap the EUR amounts are kept constant for both the spot and forward dates. But the USD amounts are calculated using the spot and forward exchange rates as calculated above. Therefor the interest differential is reflected in the USD amount being different between spot and forward date.

How does it work in reality?

As I mentioned at the beginning of this article, the current situation is special because we are getting close to a date special and important for balance sheet reporting. Supply and demand may push the market in a direction.

When looking at the actual FX swap rates and taking the EUR Euribor fixings as given, we can deduce the implied USD funding rates (see diagram 2). First observation is that the FX swaps appear to reflect either a substantial demand for USD from June 30th to July 1st, or a EUR supply. It is interesting to see that the 1 week fixing for EUR was not affected, while the 1 week FX swap was affected maybe 20 bppa. One reason could be the timing of the rates. Euribor is taken at one moment during the day, while FX swaps are affected by events during the day. Because wdiagram2e are looking at a single day FX swap, the annualized rate could swing a lot.

Another observation is that the interest rate differential between EUR and USD is actually bigger than implied by the fixings. For one month tenor the difference is 0.59% p.a.. It would seem possible that supply – demand forces can push FX swaps away from the deposit markets. Likely the counterparty limit constraints on pure deposits keep them from being arbitrages vs FX swaps, like they used to be many years ago.

How can a treasurer benefit from FX swaps?

Each individual and organization should determine for itself what he/she or it needs. And I do not want abstract from discussions around documentation requirements, collateral financing and administration, and the operational extra work. It seems obvious that there are opportunities to investigate.

One key area would be to look at the bid-offer spreads on cash liquidity in various currencies as provided by house-banks and compare those rates with and without using FX swaps. Also I could imagine non-house banks could be more competitive in providing FX swaps, while the counterparty risk is substantially smaller than when pure lending is concerned.

Rob Soentken

 

Rob Söentken

Ex-derivatives trader