17-01-2023 | treasuryXL | LinkedIn | Join Kantox and treasuryXL in this expert-led conversation on the future of currency management as we uncover the key treasury priorities and opportunities for the new year.
16-01-2023 | treasuryXL | Kantox | LinkedIn |
Avoid the cliff and protect your cash flows! When volatility is at an all-time high, the right currency hedging strategy can set you apart. And save your business from an uncertain future. Transform your FX risk with a layered hedging strategy that will help you withstand unexpected changes in FX markets and protect your margins.
When implementing an FX hedging program, finance professionals responsible for risk management must be aware of the ins and outs of their business. This will be the starting point to uncover potential gaps in the hedging strategy and also opportunities to implement the program that fits perfectly.
Let’s understand how a layered hedging program works and how it could fit with your FX strategy.
Layered hedging programs allow CFOs and Treasurers to handle the related problems of FX markets volatility, shifting interest rate differentials, and less-than-stellar cash flow visibility.
The goal of a layered hedging program is to smooth out the hedge rate over time to lower the variability of company cash flows. Additionally, a layered hedging program that is created from scratch can deal with the problem of forecasting accuracy.
Instead of ‘protecting’ an FX rate, layered hedging programs build the hedge rate in advance. And because hedges are applied in layers, in a progressive manner, you do not need a 100% accurate forecast at all.
Not all hedging programs are the same, as they tackle different goals for managing FX risk. Before you implement a layered hedging program and start dedicating time and resources, you need to think about certain conditions. These relate to your current business model -including pricing structure, the FX exposure you want to hedge, cash flows, etc.- and your company’s specific needs when it comes to FX hedging.
This type of hedging program is best suited for firms that need or desire to keep steady prices not only for one individual campaign/budget period, but for a set of campaign/budget periods linked together. In layered hedging:
(a) Prices are usually not FX-driven, meaning that the FX rate plays no role in pricing strategy.
(b) The impact of the ‘cliff’ -a sharp adverse fluctuation in currency rates between periods-, cannot be passed on to customers at the onset of a new period.
(c) The exposure to hedge is a rolling cash flow forecast for a set of periods linked together.
Unlike other cash flow hedging programs, like static hedging where prices are either frequently updated or updated at the onset of a new budget period, pricing does not act as a hedging mechanism in layered hedging programs. And that puts cash flows at risk, so a solution must be found elsewhere.
In comes the star of layered hedging, smoothing the rate.
The secret of achieving a smooth hedge rate over time is to create commonality between trade dates for a given value date. Take, for example, a 12-month layered hedging program. The value date of October is hedged in 12 different months, from October in the previous year down to September.
Next, the value date of November is hedged in the same manner, starting in November of the previous year down to October. And so on and so forth. Note that the two value dates -October and November- share eleven out of twelve trade dates with the same spot rate. That’s the concept of the mechanically created commonality that lies at the heart of layered hedging programs.
However, the process of ‘layering the hedges’ is not as simple as it may seem at first glance. There are some common challenges that Treasurers and CFOs face when manually performing FX risk management activities.
Before crafting the optimal layered hedging program for your business, there are three common challenges that need to be considered. These are crucial to the success of the FX hedging strategy. And they relate to the configuration of the program, the intrinsic constraints of the business, and the level of automation currently available to the team. Let’s take a closer look.
(1) The degree to which the hedge rate is smoothed, for example by adjusting the programs’ length.
(2) The optimisation of forward points. For example, hedge execution can be delayed if forward points are ‘unfavourable’.
(3) The distance between the average hedge rate and the spot rate.
(1) The degree of forecast accuracy.
(2) Possible limitations imposed by liquidity providers who might not let a firm trade forward contracts that expire, say, more than two years out.
(1) Spreadsheet risk, including data input errors, copy & paste errors, formatting and formula errors.
(2) Key person risk, as only a handful of individuals understand the formulas that underpin the ‘monster’ spreadsheets.
Layered hedging programs are a powerful FX risk management tool to face the trifecta of problems created by a highly volatile scenario. These hurdles include currency risk —including the risk of a cliff, as we saw recently with the GBP-USD exchange rate—, shifting interest rate differentials, and less-than-stellar cash flow visibility.
Now that you know the ins and outs of layered hedging, you can start transforming your FX risk management workflow. And forget about the challenges that may come when facing uncertainty. That’s a pretty powerful advantage in a scenario of pandemics, inflation and war!
If you want to leave behind the challenges of manual work when it comes to currency risk, consider implementing automation software.
Kantox is the only solution that streamlines the currency management process through powerful automation of the entire FX workflow. This enables businesses to reduce currency risk, protect profit margins and price more competitively.
27-12-2022 | treasuryXL | Kantox | LinkedIn |
In this article, we look closely at conditional FX orders, a powerful tool when executing your hedging strategy, and the unique role it plays in currency management — especially when it comes to delaying the execution of hedges.
A conditional FX order is an order to execute a spot or a forward transaction to buy or sell one currency against another—but only when a predetermined limit is reached.
Conditional orders include stop-loss (SL) and take-profit (TP) orders. While SL orders are aimed at avoiding losses beyond a certain limit, PT orders are designed to take advantage of favourable moves in currency markets.
Note two time-related aspects of conditional orders in forward markets:
(a) The tenor of the underlying forward contract is specified (it could be one month, six months, or a year)
(b) The validity of the order is specified too (it can be valid for two weeks, six months, or set on a good-until-cancelled basis).
Conditional orders are usually set on an OCO basis: one-cancels-the-other, automatically to avoid the same exposure being hedged twice in the event of extraordinary market volatility.
Note, too, that in the event of extraordinary market volatility, conditional orders can be executed at less favourable levels than desired. This limitation exists not only in FX but in all financial markets.
The primary purpose of conditional orders is to provide a safety net around an FX rate that the treasury team wishes to defend.
It can be the rate used in setting prices —aka the campaign/budget rate—or a ‘worst case scenario’ FX rate.
Say that you wish to defend the rate of EUR-USD = 1 on a spot basis while the market is trading at 1.08. In this case, it is prudent to set three SL orders, each covering a third of the exposure, at 1.02, 1.00 and 0.98, respectively.
Assuming that the three levels are hit, you are mathematically assured to defend your budget or worst-case scenario FX rate.
In hedging programs designed to protect a budget FX rate, the ‘buffer’ set between the market rate towards the start of the campaign and the rate to be defended with SL orders provides risk managers with a critical resource: time.
As long as the SL orders are not executed, the passing of time means that hedge execution is delayed while FX risk remains fully under control. This brings the following four systematic advantages:
(a) More time to update cash flow forecasts
(b) More savings in terms of the cost of carry when forward points are unfavourable
(c) No cash immediately needed for collateral requirements
(d) More netting opportunities
And it’s not over yet! With luck, your TP conditional orders can be hit as well.
We recently conducted a backtest of a hedging program designed to protect the budget rate of a UK-based exporter selling into emerging markets. Over a four-year period (2017-2020), the firm would have outperformed its budget rate in three of those years while equalling it in the remaining year. In one year alone, overperformance reached 5.8%.
Delaying hedge execution with risk under control allowed the treasury team to hedge on the back of firm commitments, providing a better hedge rate than the stop-loss orders. So there you have it: when managing currency risk, consider using conditional orders. Time will be on your side. And you’ll sleep well at night!
P.S. If you’re drafting your upcoming budget, download our Budget Hedging report and find out how to use conditional orders.
17-12-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |
Making a bank transaction or money transfer to or from India? Then you’ll need a UTR number. Here’s what it is, what it does, and how to find yours.
If you’ve ever made any inter-bank transactions in India, you’re probably familiar with UTR numbers. If you haven’t but plan on making transactions in the future, this number is a key ingredient that you’ll need if you want to make any kind of money transfer. So, what exactly is a UTR number and why is it important to your transactions?
In India, “UTR number” means Unique Transaction Reference number. This number is used to identify a specific bank transaction in India. All banks in India use UTR numbers for all types of money transfer. Every UTR number is unique and each is generated to identify each fund transfer. UTR numbers in India are generated by the banks that initiate the transfer. You can easily use the UTR number to track the status of your transactions.
Where exactly can you find your UTR number for each transaction? All you have to do is look at your bank statement for your UTR number. The UTR number is listed as “Ref no.” just below each transaction details. UTR numbers in India often look like this:
XXXXR7310682908954385XX
The few characters of each UTR number usually vary depending on the bank that generates them.
One of the quickest and most convenient methods of getting a specific transaction’s UTR number is from your account statement. You can easily download or just view this statement via your bank’s mobile app or internet banking. The UTR number is the 22 or 16 characters usually next to the transaction date.
The importance of a UTR number in India is to recognize and keep an eye on financial transactions. Banks can use UTR numbers to help you track your fund transfers if they are delayed, stuck, or if you intend to refer to any previous transaction for whatever reasons.
For instance, if you send some amount of money to someone and he or she claims the money wasn’t delivered or the amount was different, the bank that facilitates the transaction can use the UTR number to track it and to resolve the issue easily.
UTR numbers are generated in India when money is transferred between two banks. You can use two key methods to transfer funds between accounts held in various banks in India. The first is the National Electronic Fund Transfer normally known as NEFT. The other is the Real Time Gross Settlement known as the RTGS.
When you make NEFT or RTGS transactions in India, UTR numbers are generated. Though NEFT transactions aren’t processed instantly. Rather, they are processed in batches which means the fund transfer isn’t completed instantly. Currently in India, NEFT is done in half hourly batches from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. on weekdays and working Saturdays.
In contrast, when you make a money transfer using RTGS in India, the fund transfer is processed instantly. As soon as you transfer funds via RTGS, the money is deposited to the recipient’s account within a period of two hours. As such, RTGS is the fastest process for transferring funds from one bank to another. Nonetheless, you can only use RTGS when the amount of money you’re transferring is less than Rs 2,00,000.
RTGS transactions UTR numbers are 22 characters long while NEFT transactions UTR numbers are 16 characters long. Each of the two types of bank transactions have a unique UTR number format. The UTR number format for RTGS transaction is:
XXXXRCYYYYMMDD########
Here’s a simple breakdown of the UTR number of RTGS transactions:
XXXX – indicates IFSC (this is the first 4 characters) and is the bank code of the sender
R – indicates RTGS system
C – indicates the transaction channel
YYYYMMDD – indicates the date of the transaction in this order: year, month, and day
######## – indicates the sequence number
As we mentioned earlier, you can find the UTR number of any transaction by checking the detailed account statement via the online banking section of your bank. So, how can you see the UTR number of a specific NEFT transaction? All you have to do is click on the transaction details or narration. You will see a detailed description of the said transaction.
You can easily identify every type of transaction by the format of their UTR number. As we mentioned earlier, the UTR number of NEFT transactions is 16 characters long. You can easily use the UTR number of a NEFT transaction to track the status of the transaction.
If your NEFT transfer is delayed, you may check the status of the transaction by using the UTR number. Or in the event that your account has been debited for a specific transaction but the recipient is yet to receive the fund, you can easily contact the bank’s customer support asking them to track the transaction via the UTR number.
Another option is to reach out to your assigned Relationship Manager asking them to track the status of the transaction using the UTR number.
Here are other methods of tracking the status of your transaction using the UTR number:
Visit your bank’s mobile app or internet banking account
Check the previous transfer section
Search for the specific transaction with the UTR number
The status of the transaction will be displayed
Get in touch with XE.com
XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.
Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.
Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multi billion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.
Are you curious to know more about XE?
Visit XE.com
Visit XE partner page
12-12-2022 | treasuryXL | Kantox | LinkedIn |
In this article, we explore the links between pricing and creating an effective currency hedging strategy. We reveal how a simple PEG framework —Pricing, Exposure, Goals— can allow CFOs and treasurers to correctly define their FX goals, the type of exposure they need to collect and process, and the best hedging program for their business.
Transactional currency risk, it is often said, occurs between the moment an FX-denominated transaction is agreed upon and the moment it is settled in cash.
That’s OK, but what if the transaction was priced well before it was agreed, which is a realistic description of how things really work?
That’s why at Kantox, we developed the concept of pricing risk. pricing risk is the risk that between the moment an FX-driven price is set and the moment a transaction is agreed upon, a shift in the FX rate might impact budgeted profit margins.
Closely related to this is the idea that pricing is itself a hedging mechanism. Why? Because you can remove pricing risk by frequently updating your prices.
And that brings us to the topic of pricing parameters and hedging.
Let us start with dynamic pricing. There is a growing list of industries where dynamic pricing is becoming the norm: travel, chemical traders, hospitality, railways, entertainment, insurance, online advertisement, retail and even shipping.
This trend reflects the fall in transaction costs made possible by the availability of real-time data and the rise of geolocation services and payment apps.
Meanwhile, algorithms take into account supply and demand conditions, competitor pricing and other variables.
Two things need to be considered when it comes to dynamic pricing:
(a) prices are ‘FX-driven’; that is, an FX rate is systematically part of the pricing formula;
(b) prices are frequently updated, therefore leveraging the full capacity of pricing to act as a hedging mechanism.
Despite its growing popularity, dynamic pricing is not the only pricing mechanism out there. We can single out at least two other very significant models:
1. Steady prices for individual campaigns/periods. Some businesses, like catalogue-based tour operators, keep prices stable for an entire campaign/budget period and set new prices at the start of the following period. Things to consider here:
(a) Prices are also FX-driven, just like in dynamic pricing.
(b) The pricing impact of the ‘cliff’, or a sharp FX rate fluctuation between two campaign/budget periods, is fully passed on to customers at the onset of a new period. Here too, pricing acts as a hedging mechanism, but not to the extent it does in dynamic pricing.
2. Steady prices for a set of campaigns/periods. Some firms need or simply desire to keep prices steady not only for one individual campaign/budget period but for a set of campaign/budget periods linked together. Things to consider:
(a) Prices are not FX-driven: the FX rate plays no role in pricing;
(b) The pricing impact of the ‘cliff’ cannot be passed on to customers at the onset of a new period. Pricing, quite obviously, is not a hedging mechanism in this case.
The PEG or Pricing – Exposure – Goals framework provides actionable clarity when discussing pricing and currency hedging in the context of cash flow hedging programs:
For firms with frequently updated FX-driven prices, the goal is to protect the dynamic pricing rate in all their transactions. The exposure to hedge is the company’s firm sales/purchase orders. The right program is a micro-hedging program for firm commitments.
For companies that keep steady prices during individual campaign/budget periods, the goal is to protect the campaign/budget rate. The exposure to hedge is the forecasted revenues and expenditures for that particular campaign. The right program is a combination of a static hedging program, conditional orders and a micro-hedging program for firm commitments.
Finally, for firms that keep steady prices across a set of campaign/budget periods linked together, the goal is to smooth out the hedge rate over time. The exposure to hedge is a rolling forecast for a set of periods linked together. The right program is a layered hedging program.
Currency Management Automation solutions allow you to reach all your goals, whatever the pricing parameters of your business.
22-11-2022 | treasuryXL | Kantox | LinkedIn |
Do you struggle with having a perfect match between your currency hedging position and the cash settlement of the underlying commercial exposure? We’ll let you in on a secret: most treasurers and finance teams do. But how can you simplify this time-consuming and resource-intensive task? In this article, we show why you need to automate swap execution and how you can do it.
We reveal why this is an essential issue for treasurers, how it’s typically handled, and why automated swap execution can help finance teams play a more strategic role in the business.
Treasurers know that it is practically impossible to have a perfect match between the firm’s currency hedging position and the cash settlement of the underlying commercial exposure. That’s especially the case if those hedges were taken long before. This is why swapping is so essential.
Let us briefly see an example. If you have a ‘long’ USD forward position with a given value date and you need, say, 10% of that amount in cash right now, a swap agreement allows you to perform that adjustment.
With the ‘near leg’ of the swap, you buy the required amount of USD in the spot market while simultaneously selling —with the ‘far leg’ of the swap— the same amount of USD at the value date of the forward contract. And that’s how you adjust your firm’s hedging position.
Swapping can be extremely time-consuming and resource-intensive, particularly if many transactions, currencies and liquidity providers are involved. We recently saw how a large European food producer was struggling mightily with manual swap execution, a dreadful situation faced by many, if not most, companies.
Among the most common pain points, we can cite the following three:
Traceability is when each element along the journey from FX-denominated entry to position to operation to payment has its own unique reference number. But how can we apply this concept to solve the problem of manual swap execution?
The answer is automated swap execution, a solution that is embedded in Currency Management Automation software. It relies on the perfect end-to-end traceability between the different ‘legs’ of a swap agreement and the original forward contract. Meanwhile, FX gains/losses and swap points are automatically calculated. It’s dead simple!
Swap automation is a powerful tool for the treasury team. At the company level, it opens the way to:
At a personal level, in terms of the daily workload of members of the treasury team, automated swap execution means:
And that’s no small achievement!
19-11-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |
The biggest difference between neobanks and challenger banks is the presence or absence of a banking license, but it’s not the only difference.
Most banks began looking into online services shortly after 9/11 brought air travel to a sudden and screeching halt. They wanted a way to move money which did not involve placing paper checks on airplanes. Internet-based banking, or mostly internet-based banking, was the next logical step. According to some recent market research, neobanks and challenger banks will be worth over $470 billion USD by 2027. Frequently, people use these terms interchangeably. However, there are some significant differences between neobanks and challenger banks. Challenger banks are mostly online, and neobanks are exclusively online.
But while the presence of physical locations (and lack thereof) is an important distinction between neobanks and challenger banks, it isn’t the only difference between the two bank types. There are several differences to note, as these differences often have a direct bearing on which one is best for your family or business.
Think of it like this. Many retailers, like Walmart, have both a physical and an online presence. Other retailers, like Amazon, are exclusively online. Challenger banks and neobanks are basically the same. But the Walmart comparison only goes so far. Most challenger banks only have a handful of physical locations, as their online services are their main draw. Furthermore, most of these physical locations are in the UK. After the 2008 financial crisis, the government opened the market to new banks.
Neobanks, on the other hand, first appeared in 2017 as a way to fill the niche between traditional banks and FinTechs. Less than four years later, there are hundreds of these institutions in the UK, U.S., and worldwide.
There are some other differences as well. Typically, challenger banks offer both personal and business accounts. Moreover, challenger banks streamline their products and services, so they can be more internet-friendly. Challenger banks are small institutions which “challenged” the Big Four UK banks (Barclay’s, Lloyd’s, HSBC, and RBS). Their technology-based services and commitment to markets traditionally under served by the Big Four quickly attracted legions of customers.
While neobanks do offer some personal accounts and services, they usually target small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) and business startups. They present themselves not just as banks, but as online financial technology firms, and typically appeal to more tech-savvy customers.
What’s the difference between a psychiatrist and a psychologist? It’s not their sense of humor, or lack thereof. Psychiatrists can prescribe medication, and psychologists can only provide therapy.
That’s also the major difference between challenger banks and neobanks. Most challenger banks have such a limited physical presence that they are essentially 100 percent online. But challenger banks have banking licenses and neobanks do not. So, only challenger banks can offer a full range of financial services. That includes things like issuing credit cards and loaning money. Neobanks can offer these services as well, but only if they are tied to a licensed institution.
There is some overlap. Many neobanks essentially began as FinTechs. Then, once regulators approved their banking license requests, they became challenger banks.
Formed in 1995, Richard Branson’s Virgin Money is one of the oldest challenger banks in the UK. It also has locations in Australia and South Africa. Between 2007 and 2010, Virgin Money also operated in the U.S. A private equity group began Aldermore in 2009. The online institution bought Ruffler Bank a few months later, so the neobank became a challenger bank almost overnight. Aldermore is also the poster boy of this sector’s growth. South African financial conglomerate FirstRand recently bought Aldermore for a staggering £1.1 billion.
Durham, England’s Atom Bank was the UK’s first online financial institution to tailor its platform to tablets and smartphones, as opposed to PCs. It was also the first 100 percent digital bank to receive a banking license. Shortly thereafter, international banking giant BBVA acquired a large stake in Atom Bank. As a result, it expanded its financial services to include residential mortgages, competitive savings accounts, and secured business loans.
Founded in 1996, First Internet Bancorp was one of the first FDIC-insured, state-chartered financial institutions in the United States with a 100 percent online presence. It mostly offers retail services, like checking accounts, and securities investments. Customers also have access to installment loans, personal lines of credit, and other financial services. Chetwood Financial Services is an example of a limited challenger bank. It offers most financial services, with the exception of residential mortgages. Regulators do not allow CFS to issue any buy-to-let residential mortgages. Civilised Bank, which is now known as Allicia Bank, is in the same boat. It offers a single financial product, a twelve-month savings account, by virtue of a limited Part 4a UK license.
In 2010, General Motors Assurance Corporation, GM’s financing arm and a free-standing financial services company, became Ally Financial. Not surprisingly, Ally focuses on auto leasing and financing. It has close to five million such customers. In 2016 and again in 2019, the company significantly expanded its mortgage lending business. Ally is affiliated with Via, an online vehicle auction site.
San Francisco-based Good Money sends half its profits to social justice and environmental preservation groups. Accountholders cast ballots to decide where Good Money invests. The bank offers a range of FDIC-insured products, mostly DDA checking and savings accounts. As of January 2019, there was a waiting list to be a Good Money customer. All new customers also have the option of purchasing a stake in the company. Credit Suisse X is the online arm of the venerable Zurich-based investment bank. Its online banking services are targeted to individuals with high incomes. Online financial institutions are more able to go after specific market segments.
Neobanks and challenger banks are good options for customers who want an all-online or mostly-online experience. But they are not a very good option for international money transfers. Traditionally, bank fees are rather high in this area, and you may not get the best exchange rates for your transfers.
Money transfer providers, such as XE, are neither neobanks nor challenger banks. Xe does not try to be all things to all people. Instead, we focus on electronic funds transfers in general, and international electronic funds transfers in particular. We have worked very hard to develop a platform that’s both convenient and secure. As a bonus, we are also able to offer fast money transfers (some taking just a few minutes) and competitive exchange rates.
Get in touch with XE.com
XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.
Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.
Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multi billion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.
Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.
Visit XE.com
Visit XE partner page
09-11-2022 | Harry Mills | treasuryXL | LinkedIn
We all have an intuitive feel for what volatility is – we know when a market is exhibiting high or low volatility because we see differences in price changes. But it pays to be more precise with our language and to understand what is meant when we read or hear about volatility.
By Harry Mills
Let’s start with a more instinctual and accessible definition:
Volatility is the rate at which prices change from one day to the next. If some currencies or other financial assets routinely exhibit greater daily price changes than others, they are considered more volatile.
Harry Mills, Founder & CEO Oku Markets
In his preeminent book, Option Volatility & Pricing, Sheldon Natenberg refers to volatility as “a measure of the speed of the market,” which is a particularly useful reference point when we consider that volatility and directionality are two different things: an underlying’s price can slowly move in one direction over time with very low volatility, or perhaps it swings wildly from day to day, but over a year it’s not changed much.
Now we have a feel for what volatility is, how do we quantify it? This third definition explains what it actually is: the annualised standard deviation of returns, and Natenberg refers to volatility as “just a trader’s term for standard deviation.”
This isn’t an article on standard deviation per se, but if you’re unaware of what this means then it is a measure of the dispersion of data around the average. Take for example if we measure the height of 1,000 people:
Volatility is always expressed as an annualised number – this uniformity means that everybody knows what is meant when we talk about volatility being X%. In that sense, it’s rather like interest rates, which are also always described as an annualised figure.
This might not be so immediately useful to a trader or a risk manager, though, who might be thinking of daily or weekly price movements and where their risk or opportunities lie. Volatility is proportional to the square root of time, so to convert annualised volatility into daily, we simply divide the volatility by the square root of the number of days in a year – but we need trading days – on average there are 252, equating to 21 trading days a month. The square root of 252 is 15.87, but most traders approximate this to 16…
Hence, if we have a contract trading at 100 with a standard deviation of 20%, then: 20%/16 = 1.25%. We would therefore expect to see a price change of 1.25% or less for every two days out of three (+/- 1 standard deviation is around 68%).
Returns… I won’t go into detail, but if you want to explore this I would recommend chapter 10.6, The Behaviour of Financial Prices, in Lawrence Glitz’s superb Handbook of Financial Engineering which explains how price returns follow a normal distribution and prices follow a lognormal distribution. I’ll also add that calculating the standard deviation of prices doesn’t provide meaningful information because what we are looking for is the change from one period to the next, so we need to look at the daily returns!
Still here? Ok… let’s take it down a notch and look at the types and uses of volatility
There are a few types of volatility that can be measured, but by far the most commonly used and referred to are historical and implied volatility:
Volatility is a common measure of risk, and it is a key component of Value at Risk modelling. But be warned of the ubiquitous disclaimer that past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Historical volatility is useful to understand how an asset or a currency has performed in the past – you can line this up with significant macroeconomic events and understand why there may have been a period of change, and you can get a feel for how the underlying “normally” behaves. For example, trading in the Turkish lira will probably present a higher risk than in, say the Swiss franc.
Thanks for reading!
Harry Mills, Founder at Oku Markets
31-10-2022 | treasuryXL | Kantox | LinkedIn |
Can you improve cash and liquidity management with the help of more effective currency management? The answer is: yes, you can! In this article, we see how currency management and cash management are, in effect, joined at the hip.
There are at least five crucial, yet sometimes unduly neglected, touchpoints between FX risk management and cash or liquidity management. Let me briefly set the stage first. Then I will discuss their interactions.
(1) Swapping. Adjusting the company’s hedging position to the cash settlement of the underlying commercial exposure requires a lot of swapping.
(2) Collateral. In a world of shifting interest rates, treasurers need solutions that allow them to optimise collateral management.
(3) Working capital management. Solutions to improve working capital and liquidity are rarely mentioned in the context of FX risk management. Yet, they exist!
(4) Netting. Netting allows companies to generate savings in trading costs and in terms of the cash balances needed to satisfy collateral requirements.
(5) Cash flow forecasting. According to a recent survey by HSBC, more than half of treasurers worldwide say that cash flow forecasting is the most important task in treasury.
Take the case of a hedging program designed to protect the FX budget rate. It includes stop-loss orders to protect the FX rate used in pricing or a ‘worst-case scenario’ FX rate. It can also include profit-taking orders to lock in more favourable exchange rates.
As long as the stop-loss orders are not hit, hedge execution is postponed. This means that the cash required for collateral requirements can be set aside at a later date. It also means that treasurers have more time to improve their cash flow forecasts.
And it’s not over yet! Hedging incoming firm sales/purchase orders or invoices leads to very precise currency hedging. This means that purchasing managers are in a position to buy confidently in the currency of their suppliers. These, in turn, will be more inclined to grant extended paying terms.
With the perfect end-to-end traceability that comes with automated programs, managers can safely aggregate exposures without fear of losing the benefits of data granularity. This can create more netting opportunities, again reducing the need to set aside cash in terms of collateral.
Finally, swapping can be easily automated.
And voilà!
That’s how effective FX risk management ends up improving liquidity management. Note that the process feeds on itself. Let me give you an example. Because swap automation releases valuable treasury resources, treasurers can take advantage of the benefits of using more currencies. Automated swap execution, therefore, improves not only the cash management part of the FX workflow but also —indirectly— working capital management.
That’s what I call a win-win situation!
27-10-2022 | treasuryXL | LinkedIn |
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