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What will be the new “normal” for interest rates?
| 23-01-2018 | Lionel Pavey |
From a high of just over 5% in the summer of 2008, 10 year swap rates have fallen to a low of around 0.25% in the autumn of 2016 and are currently just under 1%. Historically, it has been usual to describe prices as moving back to around the average. However, having just under 20 years of data, it is possible to analyse the average fairly quickly.
The average rate for 10 year swaps for the last year is about 0.80%
The average rate for 10 year swaps for the last 2 years is about 0.70%
The average rate for 10 years swaps for the last 5 years is about 1.15%
The average rate for 10 year swap for the last 10 years is about 2.20%
And the average since 1999 when the Euro started is about 3.40%
The lowest rate was about 0.25% in 2016
The highest rate was about 6% in 2000
What is normal? From a personal point of view when I took out my first mortgage (back in the previous millennium) the advice I was given was that if long term fixed rates (10 years) were lower than 6.5% I should look to lock into that rate as the long term average was 7%. With every other property that I subsequently bought the long term fixed rates were lower than with my first mortgage. Currently mortgage rates for 10 year fixed are around 1.75%. Long term interest rates have been steadily falling for the last 30 – 35 years.
So, when we talk about rates eventually rising, we are still left with the problem that previous benchmarks – which were normal then – may not be applicable anymore.
A rate raise is absolute – the magnitude and its impact will be relative to our perception of the new “normal” benchmark.
Lionel Pavey
Cash Management and Treasury Specialist
How to fix a problem like “IBOR”
| 22-01-2018 | treasuryXL |
The underlying financial products are not just derivatives – IBOR’s are also used to price floating rate loans, mortgages etc. The major problem beyond the fraud aspect is that the rates are supposed to express the interbank floating rates for various tenors. But with liquidity being very sparse in the interbank market, and the rates only being voluntary expert judgement of actual trading rates, do the rates truly reflect the cost of borrowing? ECB expects to replace EURIBOR by 2020 and the FCA to replace LIBOR by 2021. But what products can be used to replace IBOR?
Initially it appears that secured overnight rates could be the answer. Trades are reported to the relevant authorities and the transactions are based on secured lending. However, the tenor does not complement the existing fixings and financial products. A traditional EUR interest rate swap consists of an annual fixed coupon against floating 6-month coupons. Using an overnight fixing means that you would not know the 6-month floating rate until the end of the 6-month period.
To get around this problem a market could be used for existing basis spread products. As stated an overnight rate relates to secure, risk free transactions whereas IBOR relate to unsecure transactions. This means that with IBOR credit risk is built into the price. Certain additional products could be used to take an overnight rate fix to a 6-month fix – namely basis swaps. But who would supply the prices for basis swaps – the same banks who have been accused of fraud in the current IBOR process.
Another alternative is constructing the fixing from repo transaction with different tenors. But repo’s are sensitive to the credit risk of the collateral issuer. This means trading on the basis of Specials – clearly defined and named collateral issuers. With all the QE that is taking place there is an alarming shortage of high-quality government back paper that is in the free market that the very scarcity would lead to irregular pricing.
So whilst authorities have clearly stated that interest rate fixings can not carry on in their present form, they have yet to offer a valid alternative. In the meantime, contracts measured in 100 of trillions will need to be adjusted for the new method for fixings. The only people who will welcome these changes are the legal profession who get to redesign “all” the existing contracts.
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PSD2 – has it hit the ground running?
| 18-01-2018 | treasuryXL |
In the UK the process has gone even further – Open Banking has been enacted. Fintech companies are now in the position of taking over the ownership of the customer relationship that banks now have – assuming this is what the customer wants. The traditional relationship between a bank and a customer is now under threat. Banks, which have traditionally applied a one shop for all your financial transactions approach, will possibly have to change and look more like an App store from which customers can choose the services that they want.
To effectively compete in this new market will mean focus on data mining and achieving an economy of scale. It is not inconceivable that tech giants such as Google, Facebook or Amazon could start offering financial services on the back of their sizeable databases. Whereas banks have invested heavily over the years in their payment processes, new technology means that the costs are far lower for a new entrant.
But will PSD2 truly open the European market for financial services? Research indicates that we very seldom interact beyond our own national borders. The cost of banking, credit cards, mortgages, car insurance etc. differ greatly within the EU. A survey that was commissioned by the European Commission concluded that 80% of Europeans would not consider purchasing a financial product from another EU member state. Any dreams of one Europe are rudely interrupted by such research and public opinion. This is not to say that public opinion could not change – rather that the current market is not very elastic.
So PSD2 is up and running – how about the banks? PwC published a report in December 2017 after conducting interviews with senior executives in European banks. Just 9% reported they were ready, despite 66% saying it would affect their operations. Furthermore, a report was published today by the Dutch Data Protection Regulator stating that the legislation does not take privacy requirements enough into account. This despite the legislation being passed more than 2 years ago.
Eventually banks that are early to design their products specifically for this legislation and bring them to market could establish a clear lead on their opposition. Also, if the public reluctance to transact cross-border was to diminish, it is possible that – in the future – we could be purchasing our mortgages in Finland, our credit cards in the UK and our car insurance in Hungary!!
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