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Rising bond yields – winners and losers
| 25-04-2018 | treasuryXL |
The rise in bond yields is a global trend – the same is being seen in Europe and the UK. In the last week data from the EU zone showed that the economy appears to be slowing down – or increasing at a slower rate than was previously seen. However the effects of Quantitative Easing programmes in the different countries has led to a great divergence in rates.
However at present the yields are 0.6% for Germany; 3.0% for United States; and 1.5% for United Kingdom
It is clear that the due to this large divergence the effects of rising US bond yield will have a very large impact on bond yields in other countries and the exchange rates.
Recession?
Classical economic theory states that inverted yield curves are a sign of recessions and down turns in the economy. Yield curves invert when the short term rates exceed the long term rates. However an inverted yield curve is not the cause of a recession. As the Fed has been pursuing a policy of gradual interest rate rises, it is not unrealistic to expect that to lead to a tightening over the whole curve. As investors expect short term yields to rise – leading to an eventual rise in long term rates – their area of focus changes and they position themselves by selling long dated bonds, causing a rise in long dated yields.
At the same time market analysts are saying that the global economy has reached a new departure point – there has been a significant shift in interest rate perceptions and that whilst rates can and will rise, they will not revert to the mean. However, as investors chase yield a major rise in US bond yields will impact on other bond markets. When the US bonds are yielding 400% more than their Eurozone counterparts, there are serious worries that investors will flock to the US market, unless the ECB announces the end of QE, which would lead to rising Euro yields.
There is also a possible knock on effect to the equity markets. Rising bond yields suddenly make equities less attractive. It could be that volatility is about to return and that Treasurers will need to look at their hedging policies.
SME and bank lending – a dying market?
Static Data – unsexy, but imperative to workflows
| 23-04-2018 | treasuryXL |
Definition
This is data that remains constant (mostly) during the lifetime of its use; once input and recorded it becomes static and is used as reference data. The most logical example would be the data on relationships – when a company starts trading with a new supplier, a new record needs to be added to the bookkeeping system.
Types of data include:
Once the Static Data has been input it should only be changed by authorized staff. Dynamic data – the lifeblood of Big Data – can later be input (trades, invoice numbers, delivery dates, amounts etc.), but it needs good Static Data to make the data consistent. The complete data set for a counterparty must always be unique – there can not be 2 entities with the same set of data.
The structure of the data is also important – it could quite easily be the case that a company has one large client with the same bank details, but relationships with 5 different divisions. It is therefore essential that the correct protocols are in place for consistent data – whilst the legal name will be the same the importance of the short name becomes evident.
When it goes wrong
Inter company communication does not always involve use of a bookkeeping system. If staff start referring to a counterparty by another name than is in the system or use a name that is in the system but not the name they mean, problems can occur. Incorrect bookings arise which can lead to incorrect exposure levels or limits being breached. It can also be that a legal entity in a different country is referenced as they have offices in more than 1 country and issues such as VAT (BTW) can suddenly appear.
The need for secure Static Data is very high – the consequences of errors should never be underestimated. Data entry should be undertaken by people who do not enter any other data into the systems – in other words it should not be undertaken by the same staff that work in debtor and creditor administration.
Furthermore, a clearly defined protocol needs to be implemented to determine when and how Static Data can be changed.
In a little more than 1 month from now, GDPR comes into effect. The urgency to understand Static Data and to appreciate its significant contribution to daily operations has never been greater.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact us.
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