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How to generate an accurate cashflow forecast | 3 key factors
| 10-12-2019 | treasuryXL | Cashforce |
One would imagine that in a world where smart cities and virtual reality are becoming a part of daily reality, treasury and finance departments would have perfected their cash forecasting by now, giving the CFO a level of confidence in the numbers. Surprisingly, that doesn’t appear to be the case at all – both PwC’s & Deloitte’s Global Benchmarking studies highlighted cash and liquidity risk as the most important treasury challenge to manage.
If you look closer, it’s not difficult to see why: try managing and forecasting the cash flows of a complex internal ecosystem of multiple ERP’s, FX exposure and geographic entities, combined with increased global uncertainty, tax changes, interest rate rises, and regulatory change. Still, having an accurate cash flow forecast and understanding the underlying drivers is essential to a company’s well-being, as it can help you foresee potential problems which may arise in the year ahead. A lot of companies around the world are therefore increasing their efforts when it comes to cash flow forecasting, but with variable results and accuracy.
So what sets good cash forecasting (i.e. accurate and efficient forecasting) apart from bad cash forecasting (i.e. not transparent, inaccurate & time-consuming cash forecasting)?
KEY SUCCESS FACTOR #1: BEING ABLE TO DRILL DOWN INTO YOUR ACTUAL CASH FLOW DRIVERS BY USING TRANSACTION-LEVEL / GRANULAR DATA
A lot of Corporate Treasurers are seeking an accurate cash forecast through a delicate combination of well-chosen cash flow drivers & assumptions. But, to what extent do they have a good view of these cash flow drivers? Do they know what is really eating and feeding their cash (more than the typical high-level AR, AP, Treasury flows that your Treasury Management System will consolidate)?
There isn’t a lot of visibility, unfortunately. Why is that? The classic TMS will typically consolidate basic forecasted flows from the different OpCo’s. The problem is that these OpCo’s cash forecasts are already consolidated from the underlying business transactions. This blurs the insight in the real cash flow drivers and gives no assurance whatsoever on the quality of the data.
To build a good forecast, it is important to have clear and error-free access to the underlying business transactions. In a recent PwC study, only 6% of respondents said they made use of the inputs at the transactional level. But thanks to advances in technology, particularly big data analytics, treasurers can have instant access to the details of the underlying cash movements and are given the ability to drill down to the transaction level. In the gif below, you can see what this means in practice.
Suppose you want to know exactly what drives your company’s cash flow in a certain period. The GIF below demonstrates how easy this could be, using the right platform. Via an easy-to-use click-through interface, the user is able to gain insights per month, quarter, week and day including instant access to the transaction level details.
KEY SUCCESS FACTOR # 2: APPLYING THE RIGHT FORECASTING LOGIC IS CRUCIAL FOR A GOOD FORECAST
Cash flow forecasting is often associated with a pile of Excel sheets and manual work. Treasurers are forced to turn to Excel to calculate their forecasts, because classic Treasury Management Systems do not offer the required flexibility.
Getting insights into all your OpCo’s cash flow drivers is one thing but combining all these data sources and applying the right logic/rules to generate a good forecast is another. Let’s take the example of applying vendor payment behavior. Intuitively, it makes sense to enrich invoicing & sales order details with data on when vendors actually pay. Many companies, however, struggle to take this data into account. In general, they haven’t set up the appropriate algorithms to include in their forecasts. Hence, they face inaccurate forecasts and a lot of time is spent explaining (over and over again) why it was inaccurate.
Defining forecasting logic in a smart way is not an easy challenge. Yet, if your goal is to achieve an accurate forecast, a set of smart logic algorithms is invaluable. Again, modern technology proves to be a great asset. Progressive companies are using technology-driven, smart engines to calculate & automate their cash forecasts, taking over the manually intensive work and proposing logic that could improve the forecast in the future.
Above you can see how a smart engine works in practice. Cash flows are projected into the future (blue line) using forecasting logic. The dotted orange line represents a scenario with one or more of the underlying assumptions changed and immediately shows the impact relative to the blue line.
KEY SUCCESS FACTOR #3: A GOOD FORECAST IS ONE THAT IS USED TO DRIVE ACTION
Even if your forecast is no less than a piece of art, it might be underused, or not used at all. To make a real impact, there should be actions retrieved from the forecast results. There is a lot of potential in accurately predicting what might happen in the future and this potential should be translated into value.
There is even more value in considering multiple scenarios by changing some of the underlying assumptions (e.g. changing the day or frequency of your payment runs). When working in Excel or a TMS, changing assumptions might trigger a lot of additional manual work and is unfortunately often avoided. To get the most out of your forecasting process, it makes sense to build multiple forecasts and assess the impact of each of these scenarios on cash optimization. Driving action combined with building multiple scenarios, can transform finance departments into business partners for fueling a company’s growth.
The orange line reflects a scenario, built by the user. These views give her/him an immediate comparison between the current forecast (full blue line) and a different scenario (based on assumptions made by the user). A powerful simulation engine is able to show the impact of different scenarios in a blink. Imagine the power this can bring to a business-driven finance department.
Mark O’Toole heads up the Americas for Cashforce, a big data analytics & TMS technology provider focused on cash management, forecasting and working capital.
Blockchain | what is it and what does it do for your supply chain?
| 09-12-2019 | by RBS |
Rotterdam Business School will host a blockchain information event on January 27th, 2020 at the Rotterdam Business School, Kralingse Zoom 91
Blockchain is a new disruptive technology that together with Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT) and Big Data promises to change the way we do business today. It seems to have a major potential to make supply chains more efficient and transparent by cutting out middlemen and creating possibilities to do trusted peer-to-peer transactions on a global scale. However:
These and other questions related to Blockchain will be answered at the event.
January 27, 2020
16:00 – 20:00
REGISTER HERE
Programme:
15:45 – 16:00 Welcome with coffee
16:00 – 17:00 Blockchain in the supply chain: financial and sustainable solutions
Victor van der Hulst, Blockchain expert Windesheim University of applied sciences
17:00 – 17:10 The logistics applications of Blockchain
Ron van Duin, professor of applied sciences, Rotterdam University of applied sciences
17:10-17:30 Best blockchain thesis award
17:30-17:45 A proven blockchain user case: Dutch & Belgian government: Waste transportation
Martijn Broersma LTO Network
17:45 – 18:00 Coffee break
18:00 – 19:00 Break out sessions
Chair: Josanne Heeroma ten Katen (RUAS)
Chair: Luca Gelsomino (UASW)
Chair: Chris van Veldhuizen (TMO)
Chair: Arthur Fellinger (RUAS)
Chair: Martijn Broersma (LTO Network)
19:00-19:30 Wrap up
19:30-20:00 Social drinks
The event is a cooperation between the Masters of International Business the SIA-RAAk project Blockchain for SME’s and the National Blockchain Thesis Table. It’s aim is to disseminate knowledge acquired by applied research and stimulate the cooperation within the triple helix: business, research and education. For questions contact: [email protected]
TIS is growth champion for the third time in a row and is carrying its success story forward
| 03-12-2019 | TIS |
FOCUS BUSINESS and Statista rank the cloud-based payment expert among the fastest-growing and most promising companies in Germany.
Walldorf, 28. November 2019. Above-average growth in turnover and staff as well as new and innovative ways of making corporate payment processes simpler and safer – with these qualities TIS (Treasury Intelligence Solutions GmbH) has now established itself on the list of the 500 FOCUS business growth champions for the third time in a row
Statista, the Hamburg-based statistics portal, had created a ranking of the 500 fastest-growing German companies for FOCUS BUSINESS, a well-known business magazine in Germany. 12,500 companies with particularly strong growth in sales or workforce were extracted from two million commercial register entries. The companies must have their principal place of business in Germany and have achieved organic growth. Based on these criteria, a shortlist of 1,654 firms was created and from this ultimately a top 500 ranking of champions who achieved average annual revenue growth of 52 % between 2015 and 2018. The list of 500 growth champions for 2020 was published in edition 3/2019 of the FOCUS BUSINESS magazine.
The fact that TIS is now listed in the ranking for the third time in a row is primarily thanks to the confidence which customers have placed in its cloud-based payment platform. The consistent upward trend of TIS also proves that rapid growth is essential in the big context of digitalization. Through features like ERP-integration, payment automation, process standardization, and a single login for all stakeholders to manage bank accounts and payments, TIS customers benefit from improved simplicity and security in handling all their payment transactions and gain greater insight into their cashflow data.
Jörg Wiemer, CSO and co-founder of TIS, proudly tells to the press: “We are delighted and very proud to be among the winners in the FOCUS growth ranking once again. We could only achieve the impressive business performance with the commitment of an outstandingly performing team in TIS, to whom I owe my special thanks. We are continuously working towards the acceleration of our further growth in Europe and in the USA with a solution that is highly appreciated by our customers.”
About TIS
TIS (Treasury Intelligence Solutions GmbH), founded in Walldorf, Germany in 2010, is a global leader in managing corporate payments. The Financial Times named TIS as one of “Europe’s Fastest Growing Companies” for 2019.
Offered as Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), the TIS solution is a comprehensive, highly-scalable, cloud platform for company-wide payments and cash management. For businesses, TIS creates a community of trust and empowers customers to make better decisions with 100% real-time cashflow visibility. Key benefits are lower costs, risk prevention, a higher degree of transparency and fast worldwide roll-outs. For banks and partners, TIS generates growth and revenue opportunities through continuous innovation for better payment experience.
The TIS solution has been successfully used for many years in both large and medium-sized companies, including Adecco Group, Hugo Boss, Fresenius, Fugro, Lanxess, OSRAM and QIAGEN. More than 25% of DAX companies are already TIS customers.
The high level of security and deep integration of the platform with existing ERP systems is certified by ISO-27001, SAP, SOC 1, SOC 2, and TISAX.
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