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15 blockchain trends in 2021: Expect the unexpected

| 22-12-2020 | Carlo de Meijer | treasuryXL

The year 2020 has almost come to an end. It has been a historically tough year for many. A number of events happened that were not included nor expected in my – and many others – 2020 blockchain trends. Especially the COVID-19 pandemic that not only intensified trends that were already underway, but also generated new trends.

It is a tradition to focus my last blog on what to expect for the next year. We will look at the top trends we may expect for the blockchain and cryptocurrency landscape to watch out for 2021 and beyond? So, how will the landscape be look like for blockchain technology in the years to come?

1. Global blockchain market size will exponentially grow

What was not forecasted is that blockchain technology exploded in popularity this year. Businesses from a multitude of industries showed a growing interest to adopt this technology for enhancing their business processes. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the digital transformation drive in many areas, especially via the use of blockchain or distributed ledger technology.

As a result the global blockchain market size is expected to expand from USD 3.0 billion in 2020 to USD 39.7 billion by 2025, at an effective Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 67.3% during 2020–2025.

Expectations for 2021 are positive” “It is estimated that next year, at least 25 percent of the Forbes Global 2000 will use blockchain as a foundation for digital trust at scale.” 

2. Covid-19 will further accelerate blockchain transition

We will see a reorientation of the various blockchain projects. Experts predict that 90% of blockchain projects will require replacement within a year.

That is because most are ignoring key features such as tokenization, smart contracts, and decentralised consensus. Next to that, the pandemic has caused more realistic and pragmatic approaches to blockchain initiatives specifically focused on the day-to-day business “to continue their growth path”. Blockchain projects with clear benefits are expected to do that next year at an even faster pace. There has also been an uptick in the number of companies interested in participating in networks that specifically help to address some of the supply chain issues that the pandemic has put forward.  

3. Long-term strategic projects will be put on hold

Volatility and uncertainty sparked by COVID-19 has led many corporates to pull back from some of  their more long-term DLT-related projects for the time being. These long-term strategic projects, in particular those requiring changes to market structure or regulatory changes, are mostly working to extended timetables now. Budgets for purely experimental and R&D projects – run in isolation from the business- are becoming harder to obtain and have been cut this year. And this will cause an even larger number of these projects will be put on hold.

4. Corporates need to accelerate their digital transformation

Digital transformation is no longer a choice for businesses – it is essential to survival. Due to the increased strain that the COVID-19 pandemic put on day-to-day business, there is a dire need at corporates to accelerate their digital transformation process to emerge stronger than before. Blockchain technology is very likely to make the most transformative and dramatic changes in the way businesses function, during the coming years. Many industries are therefore intensively looking at blockchain as a helpful tool to become all the more digital.

5. Globally, 30% of projects will make it into production. 

It is forecasted that a growing number of blockchain-based projects will switch to the production stage. This number doesn’t just reflect the more realistic approach to projects and the increasing maturity of the technology but also the pandemic-induced acceleration and initiation of projects that may bring “measurable benefit within a short timescale”. According to Gartner more than 40% of the surveyed corporates has at least one blockchain pilot running. They predict that 30% of global projects will make it into production, partly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The majority of networks that transition from pilot to production will thereby run on private enterprise blockchain platforms. 

6. Private (permissioned) blockchains will dominate

Another trend we will observe is that private blockchains will become the main contributor to the blockchain market growth and are assumed to retain the largest market size in 2021. Enterprise blockchain solutions are developed customized according to a corporate’s business needs. Private blockchain provide more opportunities to corporates in terms of utilizing the blockchain technology for business-to-business use cases. They deliver higher efficiency, privacy, reliability, and transparency, while security is provided to a private blockchain using private keys that are known only to authorized persons in the organization.

7. China will make the fastest progress  

From  a regional perspective China is leading the global blockchain game and will continue this role in 2021. Blockchain is taking China to the level, which is well beyond the present reach of other global market players. China’s “new infrastructure” national initiative, its state-backed Blockchain Based Service Network, is aimed to make blockchain an integral part of the country’s digital infrastructure. China’s further ambition is to provide a global public infrastructure via this Network. Beyond that, while other countries or regions like Europe are thinking to launch their own Digital currency, China is almost ready to issue their Crypto yuan.

8. The banking and financial sector further dominates the market

Amongst all the industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial sector is one area that has been hit particularly hard. Falling profits and tightening margins have forced banks to adapt and increasingly meet their customers need in a growing digital world. The adoption of fintech and blockchain technology, enables them to streamline their operations and modernize their operations. This may lead to a firm growth in contactless transactions and redesigned financial services. The banking and financial sector is expected to show exponential growth in blockchain adoption in the coming years. As a result this sector is going to hold the largest market size in the global blockchain market during the coming years.

9. Growing DLT-offerings by non-traditional financial institutions

Another trend we will see during 2021, and also triggered by COVID-19,  is the rise in the number of non-traditional financial institutions. They will be triggered by a growing number of corporates but also consumers that are going more into online blockchain-based mode of transactions and financial services. These groups nowadays have more non-bank options delivered by institutions ranging from non-bank lenders, to crypto-currency based banks to fully decentralised financial (DEFI) services alternatives.

10. Fast upcoming trends: DEFI …..

Next to a firm acceleration that is expected in the acceptance of tokenisation i.e. the digital storage of assets on blockchain, another interesting upcoming trend in 2021 and further on will be DEFI or decentralised financial services. If we look at DEFI it shows how blockchain could be used for financial use cases which up till now has been “the missing point” for enterprise blockchain offerings. DEFI illustrates successful process of smart contracts for financial services. This alternative form of financing perfectly fits into the fintechisation of the economy.

This year we already have seen a firm rose of DEFI services. The total value of fulltime decentralised financial services (based on cryptocurrencies) witnessed an impressive growth and even surpassed USD 10 billion. It is seen to be further speeding up in 2021 and beyond.

11. ……  and ZKP

Another important trend we may see in 2021 is the arrival of Zero Knowledge Proof (ZKP). ZKPs are urgently needed to meet challenges with preserving confidentiality that are currently holding blockchain projects back. Blockchain-based ZKPs allow companies with different record-keeping systems to be verifiably “in sync” on a record-by-record basis without sharing sensitive information. Much progress has been made recently around ZKPs. There are increasingly coming all sorts of solutions on the market to deploy ZKPs in a broad way. For instance to put mortgage requests on blockchain and, via ZKPs as a sort of notary, automatically grant or reject such a request. Big challenge however remains the complexity of the developments. ZKPs are much more complex to develop than coding a smart contract without privacy, but for security reasons corporates are expected to shift from developing DApps  to developing ZApps.

12. Cryptocurrencies may reach new heights

2020 has proven to be a good year for all crypto markets, and expectations are for 2021 to be even a better year for Bitcoin and other cryptos. These cryptocurrencies have taken center stage as investors search for new safe haven assets, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. With so much uncertainty in the market, and being largely unaffected by external factors like government policy thanks to its decentralized nature, Bitcoin has proven itself to be a “valuable form of digital gold”, qualifying itself as one of the strongest players in the digital currency world. As we enter 2021 and adopt to a new normal, social distancing and cashless transactions may further set the stage for cryptocurrencies. However, with the constant fluctuations in the crypto space, anything could be expected.

13. Crypto fraud is rising

While 2020 being great year for investments in cryptocurrencies, the downside is a firm rise in crypto frauds. Global crypto exchanges, have suffered high-profile hacks, whereas hacks on decentralized finance (DeFi) companies accounted for more than 20% of the total theft volume in 2020. Expectations are that this will continue during 2021. We may see various types of cyber fraud, including fake crypto investment platforms, fake crypto wallet scams, new forms of malware targeting lesser-known cryptocurrencies and crypto-jacking.

14. The number of CBDC projects will accelerate

There is a proliferation of central banks worldwide that are exploring the possible launch of their own central bank digital currency (CBDC). According to a recent BIS report 80% of central banks worldwide are researching the pros and cons of such a currency. This process will further intensify in 2021, driven by the diminishing use of cash, the digitalisation of the economy, the upcoming of private digital currencies like Libra etc. The Chinese government is well in advance, recently indicating  to accelerate their process triggered by COVID-19. They have already executed dozens of experiments amongst citizens and corporates and are even ready for a worldwide roll-out. The ECB will take a clear decision on their Digital euro project mid-2021.

15. Governments Will Tighten Regulations Related to FinTech

A final trend we will see in 2021 and beyond is that regulators will intensify their search for stricter and tighter regulation. Long time being absent, governments around the world are sure to implement a myriad of fintech regulations over the next few years. The growing digitalisation of the economy triggered by the COVID-pandemic is an issue that is now narrowly monitored by regulators worldwide. Digital banking, cryptocurrency, and blockchain will likely be the greatest topics of concern.

As an increasing number of finance transactions occur outside of traditional institutions and mechanisms, issues like DEFI cannot be ignored anymore by regulators. Meanwhile, European Union legislators are pursuing an EU-wide regulatory system for crypto assets markets, including the proliferation of token investments as a sophisticated investing vehicle.

 

Concluding my blog and wishing all of you a merry Christmas and a good and healthy 2021:

“If we’ve learnt anything from 2020, it’s the fact that we should always expect the unexpected”.

 

Carlo de Meijer

Economist and researcher

 

 

 

How to reduce your credit risk

14-10-2019 | Marco Lassche |

It is nice to sell your products at a good price. But what if you have delivered goods to your customer, and he is not able to pay? In this article we give you over 15 options, how to reduce your credit risk.

Although a company that you do business with can look very successful and credit worthy from the outside, there are many examples of unexpected bankruptcies.
Credit risk is the probability that your company incurs a financial loss as your counterparty (customer/supplier), cannot meet its contractual obligations.

In this article we give you guidance, how to control and cover your credit risk. We focus on the sales perspective, however it is also applicable on the purchases side; a prepayment to a supplier causes also credit risk.

Ways to control your credit risk:
  • Make a credit check on your counterparty before onboarding, and make sure to keep doing this during the whole relationship. Credit rating agencies like Creditsafe, Graydon, Dunn & Bradstreet make their business out of running credit checks on companies. They also have good tools (risk alerts), to follow the credit worthiness of your counterparty.
  • Transfer your credit risk and insure your counterparty risk to a credit insurer (Atradius, Euler, Coface). In case you trade with unstable countries, do not forget to insure the political risk. If insurance of your counterparty is not possible, this might be already a warning. However it can also be a just established subsidiary, being part of a bigger credit worthy parent.
  • Bank guarantee: the bank of your customer will ensure the payment if the customer is unable to.
  • Execute the exchange (payment vs. property of goods) with your counterparty at the same time or use a trustable intermediary.
Options with the bank:
–    Direct Collection
–    Letter of Credit (LC)In a direct collection as well as in a LC you handover agreed documents to the bank. The biggest difference between direct collection and Letter of Credit: In a collection the bank pays you only, when the customer paid to the bank. In an LC the bank of the buyer pays you when the agreed documents are delivered by the seller. So for goods that are not easily sold to another counterparty, we would advise to go for a LC.Other options

  • Use an escrow account of the warehouse.
    The warehouse releases the goods to the buyer, when they received the payment, and forward the payment to the seller.
  • In case of transport of the goods by ocean freight you can use the shipper to be the intermediary.
    When your sold goods are transported by sea, you can give the release to the shipper to handover the Bill of Lading (property document) to the buyer. Normally this is done after payment of the buyer.
  • Use factoring. You sell your debtor at a discount to a factoring company. Make sure that you cannot be liable for non-payment (non-recourse basis).
  • Ask for a parent guarantee if the counterparty that you trade with is part of a big parent company. This parent guarantee can also be used to get an insurance at your credit insurer.
  • Diversification. Try to limit credit exposure on one customer, one region (concentration ratio’s). Ensure that a non-payment of one not covered counterparty will not put you in any liquidity squeeze and put your company at stake.
  • Give collection responsibility to the sales team. A trader works mainly for its sales bonus. In my opinion, to be eligible for the bonus, the whole order to cash cycle should be fulfilled. What if you give already bonus to a sale, but the invoice is not paid. So give the trader also the responsibility for collection. In this way he will be more critical with onboarding his customers, agreeing on payment terms and fight for the invoice to get paid.
  • Create your own financial buffer; an umbrella for rainy days.
  • Limit the number of payment terms for your customers, and make sure that you keep them within the Terms & Conditions of insurance company.
  • Determine who within the company has the responsibility for the credit risk management and setting the credit limits. Most of the time this is a collaboration between treasury, sales and controlling team, and final responsibility at CFO.

As said, running a business hardly goes without credit risk, but there are a lot of tools that can help you to limit it to an extent that is acceptable.

Please feel free to contact me if you need any further information or assistance in setting up a framework to control your credit risk.

 

 

Marco Lassche 

Founder and Owner of at Bedrijfskostenexpert
Treasurer and Project Manager at Van Caem Klerks Group
treasuryXL Ambassador

What is Treasury? By Marco Lassche

10-10-2019 | Marco Lassche | Kendra Keydeniers

What is treasury?

Have you ever asked yourself the question, “what is Treasury?”. Many people will think about pirates and big see ships that sank deep into the bottom of the ocean including their ‘treasure’. A mystery treasure map will lead the finder to a treasure worth a lot of money. In some way Treasury and Treasure have definitely similarities, it is about money and other valuables.

Find out what Treasury is……

Treasury

Treasury or Treasury Management is the task to manage the firm’s liquidity and mitigate its financial and operational risk, with the goal to safeguard an organizations’ holdings. Let’s make this more specific. In each organization treasury tasks exist, regardless if the organization is big/small, profit/non-profit, nationally operating/ multinational. Although entrepreneurship is always bearing risk, this should be limited to a certain extent in order not to jeopardize the survival of the company. For each company this is different. For a company like Apple with a net profit margin > 20% losing 4% on its FX exposure has a much smaller impact on profitability, than for a WallMart with a net profit margin of 2-3%. In small organizations treasury is mostly done by the CFO or finance department. Bigger organizations have their own treasury departments, controlled by the CFO. In general, the bigger and more international the organization operates, the bigger and more complicated the tasks of treasury get.

3 main Treasury Categories of Tasks

Treasury management, can be divided in 3 main task categories.

  1. Cash & liquidity management (short term):
    a. This is mostly the day-to-day operations. Make sure that payments that are due are being paid in time to the correct account.
    b. Manage your bank accounts in an effective and efficient way
  2. Corporate finance (long term): How do you want to finance your company? What is the best mix for equity and debt, based on the long term scenarios for a company.
  3. Risk management (short & long term):
  • Liquidity risk: the risk that you cannot pay your bills in time (salaries, suppliers)Market Risk (or price risk) is the risk that changes in market prices (e.g. foreign exchange and interest rates), cause losses to the business;
  • Credit Risk is the risk that a counterparty default causes loss to the business;
  • Operational Risk (cyber & security, internal fraud).

Although the basic tasks for treasury remain the same over time, the content of the tasks evolves over time. Due to external factors like technology, regulations or new financial products, some tasks are less time consuming nowadays then they were in the past.

The future treasurer

A treasurer is someone who manages and oversees the treasury side of financial management of an organization. Tasks like bank selection, reconciling bank statements and managing cash flow are typical for a treasurer.

Payments these days can be automatized to a high extent, a TMS (treasury management system) can help the treasurer. However risks in cyber fraud are increasing. Also increased regulations by banks and/or government take more time of the treasurer. In the past a treasurer only went to his own bank for financing, these days there are many other options for financing or reducing financial risks. It is the task fort the treasurer to keep up-to-date with developments, and to be the consultant for the organization on treasury related subjects.

TreasuryXL.com will help you with this by following the latest trends on all aspects of treasury.

 

 

Marco Lassche 

Founder and Owner of at Bedrijfskostenexpert
Treasurer and Project Manager at Van Caem Klerks Group
treasuryXL Ambassador