Tag Archive for: INR

It’s India, you stupid

| 26-01-2018 | Rob Beemster |

In our daily business, we attend to corporations and institutions in their foreign activities.  We notice among our clients more and more attention and interest in India.  Several of our clients have invested in factories, what can be economically seen as Foreign Direct Investment in India. Others are increasing their sales and we also notice many newcomers who are firstly orientating on the country.

The policy of Prime Minister Modi is clearly opening the eyes of the international economic community. Indian corporates see chances of doing business abroad. These new economic partners built bridges to learn from each other, resulting in rising economic flows.

Many of our clients are active on the higher end of the agricultural value chain. They produce machines for vegetable processing, storage, cooling etc. India is known for its large waste of vegetable products; the government sees this as a big problem and it has to be eliminated. Collaboration of the Indians with institutions like the Worldbank and countries with decent knowledge in agriculture (like Holland ) are bound to find solutions to this waste issue. This “opening of doors” has resulted in the increase of Dutch corporate turnover with India.

And… there is a lot more to come. The spin-off from the agricultural segment to other segments can be enormous. India has tremendous opportunities for European corporations. The Dutch Embassy and the “Landbouwraad” in Delhi, are very active to help the Dutch in opening markets in India.

Non-Deliverable Forward

India has a much-regulated monetary system. Reserve Bank of India wants (full) control and insight on currency moves to or out of India. Hereby it has installed a so called non-deliverable forward system for off-shore rupee exchange. Currency hedging can be done, but not with regular forward contracts, where underlying amounts are bought and sold. At the end date of an NDF, the difference of the NDF price and the fixing is exchanged.

Currency risk

Very often the pricing in a tender and invoicing is done in Euro. So, one could say that currency risk is only ran by the Indian investor. “The European participants do not suffer due to eventual currency movements of Indian Rupee against the Euro”. One has to realize that if counterparty runs the full currency risk, there is still an indirect risk position for the supplier. So even the Euro receivers have to take a defensive stance.

Volatility

The necessity of taking care of the currency risk is because of the large volatility of the EUR/INR. It is dangerous to put all the risk at the Indian partner. Orders can be cancelled due to big swings in the value of the currencies. Profit margins of your client can diminish, which may end the relationship. The graph shows the rate moves of EUR/INR of the last five years. Even on short periods, large differences can be noticed. This should assure businesses to take full control of the currency risk. Rate changes of more than 10% within half a year have occurred several times.

Your guide in India

Transactional risk can be avoided by a good hedging structure. Economic currency risk on your long-term investment is another issue and has to be thoughtfully considered. Barcelona can help to make the hedging transparent. As said, hedging can be done but needs accurate and professional advice. Due to our experience in the Indian business of our clients, we are able to find the best solution for each trade or investment.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

 

Indian Rupee remains very vulnerable

| 04-10-2017 | Rob Beemster |

The Indian rupee has suffered in September severely. In our report we name the issues resulting to the weakening. International companies in India and those trading with India face severe danger from these currency moves. This article will give you an insight how to handle this.

What has changed India in recent months?

It seems latest macro-economic data in India have changed the outlook on its currency. The country is well-beloved due to its place under the economic and international sidelines. Apart from drastic measures taken by the government on monetary and fiscal front, the country is usually not on the forefront of economic papers like other BRICS partners.

What has caused the different outlook on the rupee?    

A, a rise in CPI inflation ( to 2.4% for July from 1.5% in June )

B, a meagre April-June, 2017 GDP report showing a three year low in growth of 5.7% YoY ( 6.1% in the previous quarter ) This is the fourth consecutive quarter with slowing growth

C, signals of a fiscal deficit above the 3.2% GDP target in the running fiscal year

D, almost a year after demonetisation, M3 and bank lending growth remain well below pre-demonetisation levels, a sign of tight liquidity conditions are hurting businesses

Investors and other members of the financial communities dislike a combination of factors A and B. This has resulted in the fall of INR against euro and dollar in September. Although INR is still one of the most popular Emerging Market currencies, a continuation of disappointing economic data might change this international feeling towards INR.  According to RBI data, the recent depreciation is in partly due to equity and bond portfolio outflows.

What to do?

Be aware of a volatile INR. The currency has lost some of its popularity, due to the facts named above. Future is always insecure, take North Korea vs. Trump, how will Brexit change Europe etc. These issues will most certainly have an impact on the dollar and Euro, so may affect the INR as well.

An international trading company, during these unsteady times, should take care of international currency flows. From Sept 8 till Sept 27, INR lost 3 % against the USD. This could be a big stake of the profit margin!

We can help you designing the right structure, whereby a strategy will protect you from harmful currency moves. A lower INR can slam your profit, we help you avoiding this. We know the Indian market. Call us on +31228528579 or mail us via [email protected] and we will help you to solve your currency risk.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

 

Fed Rates – Prospects of USD/INR Carry

| 09-09-2016 | Rahul Magan |

ir“Federal Reserve Rates and INR Reverse Carry”. As we understand that Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen turning Hawkish and asking for 25 Bps increase in September 2016. If we look carefully then Fed vice Chair Fisher also suggested the same and at the same time most prominent Bond Trader – Bill Gross also suggested increase of 25 Bps in September and 25 Bps in December. If this would happen then Overnight Rates of USD would move to 1% and this would be closer to Australia which is 1.5% in $ terms.

We should also appreciate the fact that both Central Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of India are moving towards Accommodative Monetary Policy. This way they would decrease the interest rates as to stimulate their economy. In that regards there are millions of thoughts but in my view Accommodative Monetary Policy is a big suicide as Japanese is a perfect example in that regards. They are doing QQE since last 2 decades but at the end need to depend upon Helicopter Money to stimulate their economy?? We all understand that Helicopter Money is nothing but Explicit Debt Monetization by BOJ for Govt of Japan.

There are multiple reports which suggest that Helicopter Money has already started in the form of Helicopter Drops by BOJ for Govt of Japan. This would surely create Reverse carry for USD/INR. We all understand that Indian Central Bank – Reserve Bank of India is now following Accommodative Monetary Policy henceforth there is a big pressure on RBI to cut present Repo Rates of 6.5% by at least 100 Bps to 5.5%. This would surely decrease the carry of INR for all Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) to invest funds in India.

One more fact which matters is the growing relevance of Indonesia where in 10 Y G Sec is trading at 7.7% and Singapore who would like to increase overnight rate to 1.35 %. If this would happen then all the funds which are scheduled to India would invest in United States who is offering 1% , Australia 1.5% , Indonesia 7.7% and upcoming Carry Currencies like Singapore offering 1.34%.

We also need to appreciate the fact that Carry Traders needs big return and specially at that time when Japanese , Swiss , Europe is in negative and also big banks like Royal Bank of Scotland , Bank of Ireland and Deutsche is asking big clients to pay negative collateral. Sitting today we are having “Quest for Yield Hunt”.

Reserve Bank of India should be well aware of the fact that if they would reduce Repo Rate by 100 Bps to 5.5% then probability of having INR moving towards Reverse Carry is 100%. This won’t appreciate INR rather would depreciate the same as less $ would park in India. We also understand that this would also increase the reliance of Indian Corporates on External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) and there would be very less funding covering Foreign Currency Non Resident Bonds (FCNR) in India which would have reciprocal impact on both USD/INR Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and Overnight Index Swaps (OIS)

On the 5th of September 2016 Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said there is still a big for Qualitative Quantitative Easing (QQE) in Japanese Economy however this time Negative Interest Rates would play a very important role in that regards. Keeping all the aforesaid factors, Currency Traders are advised to take care of the same while making trading bets involving INR. Currency Traders are advised to have Options Structures to hedge their exposures.

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Rahul Margan fotoRahul Magan – Chief Executive Officer Treasury Consulting LLP

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