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Managing Strategic Foreign Exchange Risks

| 09-05-2019 | ILFA group |

Strategic foreign exchange risk management consists of managing foreign exchange risks with a long term time horizon. It involves eliminating the influence of foreign exchange fluctuations to the profit and loss (P&L) statement and the competitive position for the longer term. It is a hot topic for many Treasury professionals. Many times it has been said that ‘these risks cannot be managed’. During our conference we will prove this concept to be false, although the solution is complex.

We have developed a total solution on strategic risk management (consisting of a clear strategy), concepts for policies, a training course allowing you to be in control, mathematical models to support strategy, complete automated support in our software and have investigated the IFRS influence.

Our solution finds its basis on scientific grounds and not on market views. The solution enables an organization to:

  • Eliminate the influence of changing foreign exchange rates to the P&L and the competitive position.
  • Decrease the credit risk that finance suppliers have on the organization. As a result, the credit risk spread on finance is reduced and it becomes easier to attract equity.
  • Enhance shareholder value by increasing the value of the organization and decrease the Beta of the shares.

During the conference we will show you what strategic foreign exchange risk consists of, we will show the technicalities of our solution, and we will follow a practical example.

Date: Wednesday, May 22nd, 2019

Register here

Where

Priory of Corsendonk
Corsendonk 5
2360 Oud-Turnhout
Belgium
Attendance is free of charge

Agenda

13.00 – 13.15   Welcome
13.15 – 15.30   Conference Part 1
15.30 – 16.00   Coffee Break
16.00 – 18.00   Conference Part 2
18.00 – 19.00   Evening Reception

 

Foreign currency hedging, a protection of cash flow

| 25-10-2017 | Rob Beemster |

Currency volatility is a well-known uncertain component of international business. In the pre-euro era one could suffer severely by currency movements of its European neighbours. Corporations, dealing within euro countries, have diminished the currency exposure.

A historical overview of the euro versus the us dollar

Looking back over the last 60 years, we can see that from 1958 till early 1970s there was  stability due to the Bretton Woods golden standard. At the end of this, the Vietnam War made it impossible to keep the dollar relation to gold. Early 1980s, the Reagan administration introduced a new economic policy; Reaganomics. Lower taxes and high governmental expenditure. This created a huge mess in America’s monetary situation. Interest rates went to enormous heights, the dollar climbed to unknown levels against the yen and European currencies. American exporters could not sell their products due to this high dollar.

Why the attention to Reaganomics? Well, the Trump administration is a vigorous trailer of the Reagan policy. Lower taxes might be introduced soon and Mr Trump also wants to invest heavily in infrastructure. Obvious, some similarities with Reagan. The new helm of the Federal Reserve Board will soon be appointed. When the board will have more hawks than doves, interest rates might raise sooner than expected. This might have consequences for the dollar and we may see here a reflection of the early 1980s.

 Trump and the us dollar

It is known that President Trump regularly protests to so-called currency manipulators like China and Germany. Their trade policies are in his view unacceptable. Due to this view of Trump on currencies, it will be questionable whether he would tolerate a higher dollar at all. The highly unpredictable Trump policy makes it impossible to judge in what direction the dollar will manoeuvre.

 The highly volatile euro/us dollar

The dollar has fluctuated severely since the euro introduction in 1999. ECB’s first President, Mr Duisenberg was facing tough times as the euro went from its introduction level of 1.17 to the low of 0.8350 a couple of years later. His world trip to recommend the euro as world reserve currency  has realized a demand from authorities to stock euro’s in their currency reserve system. The aggressive build-up of FX reserves by Asian monetary authorities has helped to revitalize the euro. Duisenberg made it happen that the currency went up from low 0.80s to almost 1.60 against us dollar in a couple of years. This occurred not so long ago!

 Two examples of neglected currency risk

1, many corporations have changed its landscape to the global market. A lot of exporters are billing their products in euros. A currency risk is obvious when these companies focus on one target area. Clients may find the products too expensive when euro is rising. So one runs indirectly a currency risk. Many countries have linked their currency to the dollar, so a change in the euro/us dollar may have consequence on your sales.

2, trading with China and agreeing to do the transfer in dollars, does not really mean that the risk exposure is in dollars. The transfer risk is in dollars, but the real currency risk is in yuan. Say, the European importer buys goods from China and both have agreed to do the payments in dollars. The Chinese counterparty will adjust the price of the goods when yuan moves against the dollar. The European corporation should install an us dollar/yuan currency risk hedging policy.

Don’t underestimate the course of currencies

Being an active international corporation is not easy, many components are changing markets constantly. Internet makes markets more transparent then ever thought, automation changes the landscape, consumer behaviour is sometimes not logical and newcomers/interrupters create new markets. Within this one has to deal with currency volatility. But this is a component one can conduct. Foreign currency strategy is essential for any internationally active corporation. Currency volatility cannot be underestimated and needs control.

Barcelona valuta experts can help you to create a decent foreign currency strategy. Call us on +31.654981315 or mail us via info@barcelonafx.nl for more information.

 

Rob Beemster

Owner of Barcelona valuta experts BV

USD/TRY, where to after the failed coup?

02-08-2016 | Simon Knappstein |

TRY

 

In my July consensus FX forecasts report USD/TRY was expected to rise to 3.11 in 12 months’ time. These forecasts were given prior to the attempted coup. 

 

 

USD TRY

Now, two weeks further, the domestic situation in Turkey is clearly stabilising and it is a fine moment to take a look at the opinions of ING and Rabo on the outlook for USD/TRY. Rabo is currently expecting that USD/TRY will move to 2.90 in 1 year and ING is looking for USD/TRY to rise to 3.35 in 1 year’s time.

Rabo holds a relatively constructive view on the Lira based on a fairly strong economic growth and a high carry that tempts investors looking for yield. At the same time it sees the fact that Moody’s may downgrade Turkey’s credit rating to below investment grade as a clear risk. Such a downgrade, based on the post-coup political situation of increased concentrated political powers in the hands of President Erdogan that might lack the necessary rule of law and checks and balances, might trigger another wave of capital outflows from Turkish bonds and weaken the TRY significantly.
ING focuses on the easing cycle and also on the risk of a downgrade, both factors that would clearly keep the TRY under pressure. Furthermore it still sees idiosyncratic risks like the current account deficit, the large currency risk carried by the corporate sector and geopolitical risks all pointing to a weaker TRY.

My take away from this for the near term is that in the current benign market conditions the high carry may be the most important factor supporting the TRY and drive USD/TRY lower. A major risk is that Turkey’s credit rating may be downgraded to junk, maybe already within the next couple of days, which would seriously weaken the TYR.

Simon Knappstein - editor treasuryXL

Simon Knappstein

Owner of FX Prospect