Tag Archive for: currency

How do the current events influence currencies around the world?

| 17-03-2020 | Erna Erkens | treasuryXL

In this blog, our Expert Erna Erkens, discusses the past events and their consequential effect on currencies. Erna Erkens is owner of Erna Erkens Valuta Advies, a consultancy firm specialized in currencies.

After 35 years of work experience in the financial markets at 2 different banks, Erna wanted to work as a self-employed person. For many companies, the topic of “currency risk” is on the agenda, but often does not reflect the effect that currency movements can have on organisational results. Erna noticed that there is a great need within SMEs for knowledge and support with regard to currency risks, among other things. With EEVA, Erna shares her knowledge in different ways to meet this need.

(Blog is in Dutch)

EUR/USD: 1.1105 of andersom 0.9005 (gisteren 1.1235 of andersom 0.8900).

EUR/USD: Gisteren geen cijfers uit de Eurozone, maar wel een ingelaste vergadering van de EU ministers van Financiën. Uit de VS was gisteren de NY Empire State index veel lager dan verwacht en vorige maand. Vandaag de Ecofin vergadering en de ZEW index uit Duitsland en de Eurozone. Verder nog de kosten van arbeid en de productie uit de bouw van de totale Eurozone. Uit de VS de detailhandelsverkopen, de industriële productie, het gebruik van de capaciteit, de zakelijke voorraden, de openstaande vacatures en tot slot de NAHB huizenmarkt index. Maar de ogen zullen toch vooral op de financiële markten gericht zijn deze dagen. Alles is in mineur behalve de USD. Dus EUR/USD moest toch weer een cent prijsgeven gisteren. Als de vlucht naar de USD aanblijft houden kunnen we wel weer wat verder naar beneden. Tot de paniek over is. Toch zal dit gelimiteerd zijn door de verkleining van het renteverschil tussen de EUR en de USD. Dus als er maar een beetje vertrouwen terug komt zal de EUR/USD flink stijgen. Maar nu lijkt de USD nog een flinke veilige haven. Toch is de EUR/USD een stuk hoger sinds de laagste koers van 1.0790 van een paar weken geleden.

  • GBP/USD: 1.2210 (gisteren 1.2345)
    GBP/USD: GBP/USD blijft maar dalen. Gisteren geen cijfers, maar vandaag de cijfers van de arbeidsmarkt. De cijfers blijven uit het VK eigenlijk vrij goed, maar ja, daar trekt de koers zich op dit moment niets van aan. Wel goed voor de export. Dit helpt de economie van het VK wel. Het VK heeft een andere strategie om de coronacrisis te pareren. Ze doen eigenlijk soort van bijna niks. 
  • EUR/GBP: 0.9095 of andersom 1.0995 (gisteren 0.9100 andersom 1.0989)
    EUR/GBP: Steeds meer een markt voor kopers van GBP. Vandaag cijfers van de arbeidsmarkt. Brexit is even op de achtergrond gekomen. Even iets anders aan de knikker. 
  • EUR/CNY: 7.8065 (gisteren 7.7995). USD/CNH 7.0125 (gisteren 7.0170), USD/CNY 7.0025: PBoC fixing: USD/CNY: 7.0094 (gisteren 7.0018).
    EUR/CNY: Eigenlijk weinig nieuws. De beurzen iets lager, maar niet veel. Corona besmettingen lopen nog steeds terug.

Olieprijs

WTI Crude Oil: USD 29.58 (olie voor de VS, gisteren USD 31.12) Brent Oil: USD 30.08 (olie voor Europa, gisteren USD 33.66). Olie uit Shanghai Yuan 241.30 = USD 34.47 (contract is van april 2020). Het verschil tussen de Brent en de WTI Crude Oil is bijna helemaal verdwenen. Dat is best heel bijzonder. En dat is ook een teken voor mij dat de beweging bijna voorbij is. Maar de USD 50 komt niet zo snel terug. Pessimisten zien het naar onder de USD 20 gaan. Zou kunnen, maar ik ben minder pessimistisch. Maar de komende maanden lijkt Saudi Arabië de oliekraan vol open te draaien. Althans dat zeggen ze nu,maar dat kan zomaar weer veranderen. Als dat blijft zal er een gematigde stijging komen denk ik. Maar als er toch weer gesprekken met Rusland en overeenstemming zal zijn dan kan dit onmiddellijk weer helemaal omslaan. Ik acht dat ook niet onmogelijk. De opslag voor olie is nu schreeuwend duur. Ik denk dat we de komende tijd nog te maken houden met lage olieprijzen,maar dat dit wel op een iets hoger niveau zal zijn. Ik heb het al vaker gezegd, maar ik schat de ruimte om verder te dalen vrij beperkt in. Standard Chartered verlaagd zijn gemiddelde verwachting van de olieprijs voor de Brent van met -USD 29 maar USD 35 voor 2020.Ik ga mijn lange voorspelling ook naar beneden aanpassen volgende week. Maar niet zover denk ik. Het is alweer dalende.

Barrel / vat olie = 158.99 liter
Gallon =  3.7854 liter

Goud

USD 1483.0 (gisteren USD 1514.00). De goudprijs is in USD per troy ounce (=31.1 gram). Goud heeft zijn glans als veilige haven op dit moment helemaal verloren. Iedereen gaat voor cash. Dus is de USD,Japanse Yen, Zwitserse Franc in trek. En zelfs de Euro lijkt wat veilige haven glans te krijgen. De bodem van het goud lijkt overigens wel ongeveer bereikt. Cash is King!!! Maar dit zal snel weer terugkomen. Als de echte paniek wegebt of als je aan de nieuwe situatie wennen. Mooi moment om te kopen zou ik zeggen. Een analist sprak de woorden: De traditionele regels zijn op niet meer aan de orde en er is niets dat als een veilige haven kan worden geclassificeerd. Zelfs het goud niet. Dat komt snel weer terug is mijn gevoel.

Zilver

USD 12.35 (gisteren USD 13.10). De zilverprijs is in USD per troy ounce (=31.1 gram). Zilver is helemaal in de kaartenbak verdwenen. Ongelofelijk. Zilver op een laagterecord sinds 2009. Ongelofelijk. Wat voor het goud geldt is voor het zilver nog meer van kracht. Wat een koopje. iedereen komst echt wel weer bij zinnen. Dan zal het zilver weer snel stijgen, Maar dit is wel een enorme klap. die had ik niet eens een beetje aan zien komen. Tja.. Ik kan me een turbo of call optie goed voorstellen.

Beurzen gisteren en vanmorgen 

De Europese beurzen zijn gisteren gemiddeld -4.2% lager gesloten. De AEX is gisteren -3.10% lager gesloten op 419.83. De AEX is vanmorgen 3.6% hoger geopend op 431.65. Weer bijgekocht gisteren. De beurzen in de VS zijn gisteren gemiddeld -12.5% lager gesloten. (Dow Jones, Nasdaq en S&P). Azië: De Japanse Nikkei is vanmorgen 0.06% hoger gesloten. Chinese beurzen zijn vanmorgen gemiddeld -0.5% lager gesloten. De beurs in Hongkong is vanmorgen 0.85% hoger gesloten.

En verder…

Trump

In deze tijd komt echt leiderschap naar boven. Ik zie op de tijdlijn op twitter van Trump alleen maar geretweete berichten. Een soort doorsturen. En het eerste bericht op Twitter van hemzelf gaat over de journalisten van The Times. Tja… Verder terug op de tijdlijn roept hij Amerikanen op elkaar te steunen en geeft hij aan dat er genoeg voedsel is in de supermarkten voor iedereen. Hij is positief over de beurzen. We gaan na de crisis de beste beurzen ooit zien. Dat is makkelijk voorspellen na een daling van 30%. En tot slot nog goed nieuws. Hij zal de luchtvaart en bedrijfsleven steunen. Dat geeft rust op de beurzen zo lijkt het.

Centrale Banken

Gaat Rusland de rente verhogen om de Roebel te ondersteunen? Zou bijzonder zijn in deze tijden van renteverlagingen. Turkse Lira’s ook helemaal in de kaartenbak. Zweden gaat ook weer verruimen door de aankoop van obligaties.

Diversen

Als het er echt op aan komt, willen mensen toch nog steeds cash geld hebben en is de USD nog steeds in trek, samen met de Japanse Yen en de Zwitserse Franc en in mindere mate de EUR. Ik vind de woorden van de Europese Ministers wel groot, maar nu de daden nog. Het gaat allemaal traag. de FED is daar wel beter in. Dat heeft niet met Trump te maken overigens. De FED/overheid in de VS heeft totaal USD 2200 miljard beschikbaar gemaakt. Dit is voor 330 miljoen inwoners ongeveer. Dat is USD 6.666.67 per inwoner. Wat stellen wij daar als Europa tegenover? En met welk tempo?

10 jaars rente

Bund contract: 171.40 (contract per juni 2020, gisteren 172.49). Een verschil van 0.15 punten in de Bund is ongeveer 0.01% in de 10 jaars IRS (Bund omhoog = lange rente omlaag en vice versa). De Bund is de meest verhandelde langlopende Duitse obligatie en geldt als leidraad voor de obligatiemarkt en IRS prijzen. De IRS prijzen zijn de basis voor onze hypotheekrentes. De lange blijven ineens stijgen. De rente in de VS is met 1.5% verlaagd en de lange rente’s stijgen? Raaarrrrr

10 jaar Staats Duitsland -0.41% (gisteren -0.48%). Verschil met VS 1.24%.
10 jaar Staats Nederland -0.08% (gisteren -0.22%) Verschil met VS 0.91%.
2 jaar Staats VS 0.40% (gisteren 0.38%) Verschil met 10 jaars VS 0.47%.
3 maands rente VS 0.27% (gisteren 0.25%). Verschil met 10 jaars 0.60%.
10 jaar Staats VS 0.83% (gisteren 0.85%)
10 jaar Staats VK 0.51% (gisteren 0.41%) Verschil met VS 0.32%
10 jaar EUR IRS -0.05% (coupon 6 maanden en 30/360). Gisteren -0.08%

 

Source

 

 

 

Erna Erkens

Owner at Erna Erkens Valuta Advies (EEVA)

 

Currency Moves Caught You Off-Guard? You’re Not Alone.

12-03-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

In the past few years, the financial markets had just about lulled participants to sleep. Equity markets delivered steady returns, interest rates remained low, and global currencies adhered to ranges and experienced relatively muted volatility. But that’s no longer the case.

You’re not alone if you were jolted awake by all the recent market volatility. Few anticipated the unprecedented market movements of the past three weeks.

There was no definitive announcement on February 14 that in three weeks’ time:

  • US equity markets would plunge, taking the DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all down nearly -25% at their lows,
  • The US Federal Reserve would execute a surprise 50 bp rate cut,
  • US 10-year and 30-year bonds would fall to record low yields, and
  • Oil prices would plummet -26% in one day after OPEC and Russia fail to reach an oil production accord.

Yet all of these events happened, leaving corporate finance departments, treasury groups, CFOs, and business owners to contend with the consequences.

Since February 21, three of the most commonly used currencies by North American corporations (CAD, EUR and JPY) have seen moves of 3.6% to 9.5%. Here’s a summary of the moves:

  • CAD -3.6% weaker against USD, trading above 1.3700 for the first time in nearly two years. What triggered this? The unexpected oil price plunge which was exacerbated by continued equity sell-off. Just three weeks ago, the CAD was at 1.3205.
  • EUR +6.1% against USD, trading at 1.1495 on March 9 after being at 1.0785 just three weeks ago. Exporters can enjoy both the 6% rise in spot and also the forward point premium, which makes locking in forward rates attractive. Importers have been left wondering what to do. Many decision-makers are frozen, hoping the spot rate will reverse. The charts remind us that just one year ago, EUR was at 1.1500 and two years ago 1.2400.
  • JPY +9.5% against USD, made more stunning as the JPY had a surprise 2% weakening to 112.00 on Feb 21 following weak GDP data, to only to be reversed dramatically by coronavirus safe-haven flows. These took the JPY to below 102.00 on March 9 with incredible speed. To quantify this, the FX option market which use FX Option volatility as a key measure, has seen 1-month JPY ATM option volatility spike nearly 10% (unheard of!) to 21.5% after being 11.8% on Friday.

 

What’s the takeaway from all this?

As a business, it’s important to recognize that FX risk is real and has many potential impacts to your results. Regardless of whether your company benefited or was hurt by these market moves, FX risk can:

  • Raise import costs,
  • Reduce export sales margins,
  • Make your product less competitive, and
  • Possibly disrupt your 2020 business plans.

To illustrate the financial risk, here are example payables or receivables denominated in CAD, EUR, and JPY. There is the P/L impact looking at both 2/21 to 3/9 period, as well as considering if the currency trends continue:

If P/L swings of this magnitude cause you corporate nausea, please know you can take actions to mitigate them. FX volatility is a risk you can manage.

 

Source

 

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

 

 

 

What’s Money Transfer Really About?

05-03-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

There are some situations where cash just won’t cut it. This is where we enter the wonderful world of money transfer. What is money transfer? It’s simple: it’s any form of payment that doesn’t involve cash.

Money transfer comes in two forms: payment and transfer. When you use you debit card at a store or your boss gives you your paycheck through direct deposit, you’re experiencing small-scale money transfer. When you’re sending money to another account or person, whether it’s across town or across the world, you’re also making a transfer.

When would you need an international money transfer? If you’re:

  • Purchasing property overseas
  • Sending tuition or spending money to a student studying abroad
  • Making an international move
  • Preparing for an exotic trip

…then money transfer is the way to go. Your money is in good company: experts estimate more than $2.5 quadrillion moves around the world each year.

Don’t let the technical details overwhelm you. Online money transfer is a quick, simple, and secure process for any of your currency exchange needs.

Is one money transfer method better than the others?

If you’ve been looking into making a transfer, there’s no doubt you’ve run across several different methods for your transfer. In addition to money transfer, you’ve probably also heard about:

  • Wire transfer
  • Money order
  • Balance exchange
  • Bank transfer

These options may seem more or less interchangeable—after all, at the end of the day, your money is moving where it needs to go, so does it really matter how it gets there?

Yes, it absolutely does. Choosing a money transfer over some of these other methods can influence:

  • The speed of your transfer
  • Your currency exchange rate
  • Whether or not you incur any additional fees during your transfer
  • The ease of the process
  • The amount you can transfer
  • Where you can transfer
  • The currencies you can exchange.

When you make a money transfer through Xe, you can trust that your money will reach its destination quickly, securely, and with no tacked-on fees.

Source

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

 

 

 

Coronavirus Concerns See Equity Markets Suffer As Investors Head for Safe Havens

27-02-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

Coronavirus took the headlines again with the World Health Organisation warning that the world should prepare for a pandemic. The WHO stated it was too early to call the outbreak a pandemic but countries should be “in a phase of preparedness”. As with before, the Dollar and Swiss Franc are benefiting from their safe-haven status, with CHF hitting a 4-year high against the EUR. Both strengthened against most major currencies, as risk-averse investors fear that if the virus becomes a pandemic it will have a significant negative impact on global growth.

GBP/USD fluctuated around 1.29 for the day, despite US Equities collapsing yesterday, as investors adopt a risk off approach. Long-term bond rates fell sharply as worries about a recession increased. The 10-year treasury note is not far from its 2016 record low of 1.32%. In turn, Gold has continued to climb higher, hitting fresh multi-year highs and edging ever closer to the $1,700 mark. Despite the fear amongst wall street, the US Dollar has shrugged off the negativity as it moved higher thanks to its safe-haven status.

EUR/USD moved towards 52-week lows yesterday, falling to 1.0804 yesterday. Coronavirus related events in Italy had affected the EUR, with around 50,000 people under lockdown and the death toll rising to four. The pair   however recovered towards the end of the day, hitting one-week highs of 1.0850 as the S&P 500 closed in on the low of 2020.

GBP/EUR appears to be relatively stable as investors assess the impact of coronavirus to be potentially greater within Europe than it is in the UK. Also, news that the UK budget – which is due to be announced on March 11th – could be bigger than expected should help the Pound remain relatively well supported against the Euro and other major currencies. In the meantime, the market keeps one eye on the build up to the UK-EU trade talks, due to commence next week. Some potentially positive news for the Pound yesterday was reports that the EU’s latest draft mandate indicates the EU will not be pushing for ‘dynamic alignment’. Dynamic alignment is essentially a requirement for the UK to adhere to a certain set of laws and standards, set by the EU, in order to have a free-trade agreement. Today, the EU leaders will be holding a general affairs council, with the Brexit Strategy on the agenda. This could provide greater detail around the EU’s position ahead of next weeks’ talks, any demands that may emerge from the agenda could have implications for the Pound.

Source

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

 

 

 

Huge number of countries with an array of recession forecasts

20-02-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

Widespread weakness continues to weigh on a huge number of countries with an array of recession forecasts in the wake of global weakness due to pandemic, trade wars and trade deleveraging.

Hong Kong having slipped into recession last year seems as if this is likely to be repeated in the wake of the Coronavirus and months of political unrest. Hong Kong GDP already contracted at an alarming 3.2% in the middle of 2019 and key signals from economic data are already pointing at a continued slow-down of their fiscal situation. Japan is widely believed to enter a recessive environment as well suffering a huge typhoon and then a big tax increase and straight away afterwards the virus also affected their growth. There is a chance the UK could slip into recession following a protracted Brexit process and, if trade deals are not as positive as expected, the additional costs will threaten growth during the course of the year. Germany produced a string of contracting economic figures during the end of 2019 as it wore a sustained decline in manufacturing sector and auto sales. Italy was in a technical recession for half of 2018 and has not really recovered where they have seen weak productivity, big debt figures and unemployment and these do not appear to be being restored quickly. China continued to slow during the trade war and this led to a forecast of GDP growth of 5.8% which sounds very high, but when compared to the figures of 6.6% and 6.1% in the last two years respectively it is certainly a big reduction. Add to these, significant stresses in the economies of Turkey, Argentina, Iran, Mexico and Brazil and the picture for global growth could be gloomy.

In the UK, the situation is finely balanced and after the prolonged Brexit situation our attention returns to stalwart economic data production. We saw prints in jobs and earnings data and there are small positive signs there as earnings rose slightly. We are waiting for inflation data which will be a potent conversation in context of the UK’s buoyancy. Expectations are a significant rise in Retail Price Index figures year on year but a reduction month on month. Consumer Price Index figures are pointing at a slight increase year on year but a big reduction month on month. Lastly, Producer Price Index looks set to largely balance out so that is good news for the near future if forecasts proves to be accurate.

Looking over the pond at the US inflation and housing data, there appears a mixed bag of results expected. Housing starts seem to have an expectation of a big contraction but there looks as if the Producer Price Index data will be a move higher, which will push an increase in costs to consumers over time and increase inflation more generally but this has a likelihood to manifest in the requirement of tools to mute this price pressure, namely interest rate hikes. This would need to be a sustained factor for this conversation to play out in this way within the Federal Reserve.

Source

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

 

 

 

Inflation Data for EURUSD

13-02-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

Markets have once again turned risk averse overnight, with the Chinese city of Hubei the latest outbreak focus. With a European tech conference cancelled, as well as fears in South Korea and Japan. The medium and long-term impacts are still non quantified. Currency markets do not like uncertainty.

And so, the now go-to bellwether currency is the USD, which moved above the psychological level of 99.00 which has been touted for some days. As a consequence most currency pairs have moved lower against the Greenback. One of the more notable casualties is the most liquid pair – EURUSD. Generally regarded as a low volatility play, it’s has now moved down over 13.5 % in the last two years, and tests key support.

GBPEUR has gained momentarily as a result, and indeed UK importers can be buoyed by a much healthier session for GBP across the board. Risk bearing currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD have all suffered as a by-product, and will be dictated to by Geopolitical fears related to the Coronavirus outbreak.

Yesterday did not help the EUR on the data from with Industrial production numbers much lower than expected at -2.1%, a huge shift. And this fragility for the single currency will today be magnified by German CPI inflation releases. For the EURUSD traded pair, the release of US CPI inflation numbers later in the session could have a similar push/pull impact.

Back to the UK and today we see PM Boris Johnson reshuffle his cabinet, and whilst not significantly market moving; the emphasis will be closely eyed for negotiations with Brussels.

One final thing to note is the release this morning of the RICS house price balance numbers here in the UK. This number has shown a positive swing, the post UK. election decision clearly has people moving on up. Long may it continue.

 

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

 

 

 

Why your Business Needs a Long-Term Strategy to Mitigate Against Currency Risk

06-02-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

Market volatility puts your business’ profitability and cashflow at risk to adverse movements in the currency you are exposed to.

Many businesses, particularly at the smaller end, are not aware they have an exposure to foreign exchange risk. Or, if they are, they may have never quantified the size of the risk they face.

Currency market exposure comes in different forms. Any business selling goods and services overseas will be concerned that a rise in the value of the US Dollar could damage their competitiveness in those markets. Conversely, if you’re importing anything from overseas, a fall in the value of your local currency will make those imports more expensive.

FX markets are difficult to forecast at any time, but even more so when you look beyond 6 months. While economists and market commentators can predict all they want, the reality is they never get it consistently right which makes relying on forecasts a risky strategy for your business.

How your business can mitigate against currency risk

Your best bet in combating the uncertainty that comes with fluctuating exchange rates is to have a long-term FX strategy in place.

An FX strategy involves paying attention to and managing risk, and ensuring your business has the right mix of products and services in place to help reduce your exposure to market fluctuations.

This is where working with a trusted international payments provider, like XE, comes into play. The right provider will be able to work with you to develop a strategy and will advise on the most suitable products and services to deliver favorable outcomes to your business’ profitability.

Ready to learn more?

A team of Foreign Exchange Specialists at XE have compiled an essential FX guide for US businesses – stepping you through the three key factors to understand about foreign exchange and how it affects your business, so you can make an informed choice when selecting the right partner to help you manage your international payments and mitigate against FX risk.

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

 

 

 

Back to the old days: Currency jargon in forex trading

14-01-2020 | Marco Lassche |

Nowadays the youth use apparently ‘stacks’ as a nickname for money. In forex we use already for a long time nicknames…

 

Recently I heard my son talking to one of his friends on the play station: “Hey bro, we need more stacks to go to the next level.”

When I asked him what is stacks: “Dad come on, you don’t know? Maybe you are getting too old for this (41?). Everybody knows that stacks is money.” Ouch…
My ‘old’ brain went back in time and this felt a bit like my first steps in the world of FOREX trading. At that time no electronic forex trading platforms were used. We traded still directly with banks / brokers by phone or Reuters messenger. Instead of Bro we used Mate. Instead of stacks we used the nicknames for the different currencies. For me the first days it felt like I was ended up in a scene of the Tower of Babel.

“Hey Mate, I need a Cable (GBP/USD) in two”. Later on I understood, this meant I want a price quote for a GBP/USD in 2 million GBP at which you can buy/sell GBP against the USD.

Now you know that stacks is money, and a cable is GBP/USD, it is time for some more nicknames in currency (pairs), and some background explanation:

Please feel free to contact me if you need any further information or assistance in setting up a more professional framework for controlling your financial risks and cash management in a more efficient way.

 

 

 

Marco Lassche 

Founder and Owner of at Bedrijfskostenexpert
Treasurer and Project Manager at Van Caem Klerks Group
treasuryXL Ambassador

To swap, or not to swap that is the question

30-9-2019 | Marco Lassche |

Cash management in different currencies:
The FX swap, a way to optimize your interest result

Years ago, when I made my first baby steps in the world of Treasury at Bank Mendes Gans, my old teachers Jan Loohuis and Aart-Jan Lensvelt, taught me some good lessons. One of them, that I always used in the companies that I have worked for, is this one.

What if you have temporary an overall negative position in one currency (e.g. -/- EUR 10 mio) and an overall positive position in another currency (e.g. +/+ USD 11 mio)?

Basically you have two easy ways to manage this liquidity position and optimize your interest result. Both ways lead to Rome:

  • Keep the balances in your bank account
  • You swap the balances in different currencies temporary by means of a FX-swap

Option 1: Keep the balances in your bank account
This option does not need much clarification.

  • For your debit balance you pay interest (basic interest +/+ margin)
  • For your credit balance you receive credit interest (basic interest -/- margin

Option 2: The FX swap
In a FX swap you do a trade in your FX trade portal, in which you exchange the bank balances at a spot date (at the spot rate) and you reverse it at a future date (at the forward-rate). You do the trade at the same time, so no FX risk is involved.

Forward FX-rates are being calculated directly from the spot FX-rate and are adjusted for the difference in interest rates between the two currencies.

FX swap visualised

Option 1 or option 2?
When the interest rate difference between the two currencies is more attractive in option 1, you keep your bank balances. When the interest rate difference between two currencies is more attractive in option 2, you swap.

Example
I would like to clarify it by an example in which we have a EUR balance of -/- EUR 10 mio and a
USD balance of +/+ USD 11 mio. We will swap the currencies for 1 month (30 days).

Interest results after 30 days

Option 1) Interest result by keeping balances in your bank account

Total interest proceeds in USD: EUR 2,708 * 1.1000 = USD 2,979 + USD 18,563 = USD 21,542.
Interest rate difference between USD and EUR: 2,35% (2.025% -/- 0.325%).

Option 2) Interest result by swapping balances

Interest result FX swap

At the start date we buy EUR 10 mio, and sell USD 11 mio at the spot rate 1.1000.
At the end date, after 30 days, we reverse the trade as we agreed with the bank:
We sell EUR 10 mio, and buy USD 11,025,770 at the agreed forward rate 1.102577

Our total interest rate difference proceeds is USD 11,025,770 – USD 11,000,000 = USD 25,770.

Conclusion:
In this example the FX swap is USD4,200 more attractive than keeping the account balances like it is. Of course, this is not always the case, but a FX swap can be a good alternative in many cases.

* How to calculate the interest rate difference between two currencies in a FX swap
As previously said, the difference in spot and forward rates, can be explained by the interest rate difference between two currencies, We calculate the interest rate differences as follows:

Forward Rate on annual basis / Spot Rate

As interest percentages are always based on 1 year we multiply the 30 days forward points by 12 to get to 1 year forward points (EUR and USD, calculate 360 days in a year, GBP e.g. 365 days).
The forward points for 30 days: 25.77, which means for one year 12 * 25.77 = 309.24
Forward rate on annual basis: 1.130924

Spot rate: 1.1000

1.130924/1.1000 = + 2,81%

Please feel free to contact me if you need any further information.

 

 

 

Marco Lassche 

Founder and Owner of at Bedrijfskostenexpert
Treasurer and Project Manager at Van Caem Klerks Group
treasuryXL Ambassador

 

 

Corporate Treasury have a problem and this is why…

| 23-07-2019 | by Pieter de Kiewit |

Cost savings created by good treasurers easily exceed the sum of salaries of their team. They can help open doors that otherwise stay closed for their business colleagues and they can help avoid risks. Then why do they have this modest seat at the table of CFOs and are they often not considered for succession of her/him? Why are SMEs complaining about the lack of funding opportunities, when treasurers have them available? Why are Basel regulations made by bankers and politicians, where are the corporate treasurers? Why does treasury education not have a more prominent place in education? Why do bankers earn the bigger bucks? Corporate treasury has a PROBLEM!

The non-treasurers (CFOs and business owners) often do not know, so they do not consider this a problem. I think they should, given my introduction. The treasurers I meet often experience the problem: they want to be educated, make career progression, be involved in business and have better salaries. Why do controllers or non-financials not encounter this issue, or at least in a lesser degree?

Based upon my many interview notes and the first results of the dataset of the Treasurer Test I have a first hypothesis (there will be more): the personality of people working in treasury. A Big5 personality assessment has been done in a treasury population of 100. What I see is that treasurers, on average, are easily as driven as the general population. That should be a proper foundation. Where they score substantially different is in two aspects:

  1. They do not make contact quickly
  2. They are not focused on convincing other people.

The two obvious solutions are bringing people with a different personality into the treasury field and stimulating the current population to speak up. As recruiters we hope to contribute by bringing (for example) bankers into corporate treasury. Bankers often show a different personality profile. Furthermore I think we should not try to change the personality of the current population, but skills training will most definitely help.

Do you see the problem and want to step up? I hope so.

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search