Tag Archive for: currency

Huge number of countries with an array of recession forecasts

20-02-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

Widespread weakness continues to weigh on a huge number of countries with an array of recession forecasts in the wake of global weakness due to pandemic, trade wars and trade deleveraging.

Hong Kong having slipped into recession last year seems as if this is likely to be repeated in the wake of the Coronavirus and months of political unrest. Hong Kong GDP already contracted at an alarming 3.2% in the middle of 2019 and key signals from economic data are already pointing at a continued slow-down of their fiscal situation. Japan is widely believed to enter a recessive environment as well suffering a huge typhoon and then a big tax increase and straight away afterwards the virus also affected their growth. There is a chance the UK could slip into recession following a protracted Brexit process and, if trade deals are not as positive as expected, the additional costs will threaten growth during the course of the year. Germany produced a string of contracting economic figures during the end of 2019 as it wore a sustained decline in manufacturing sector and auto sales. Italy was in a technical recession for half of 2018 and has not really recovered where they have seen weak productivity, big debt figures and unemployment and these do not appear to be being restored quickly. China continued to slow during the trade war and this led to a forecast of GDP growth of 5.8% which sounds very high, but when compared to the figures of 6.6% and 6.1% in the last two years respectively it is certainly a big reduction. Add to these, significant stresses in the economies of Turkey, Argentina, Iran, Mexico and Brazil and the picture for global growth could be gloomy.

In the UK, the situation is finely balanced and after the prolonged Brexit situation our attention returns to stalwart economic data production. We saw prints in jobs and earnings data and there are small positive signs there as earnings rose slightly. We are waiting for inflation data which will be a potent conversation in context of the UK’s buoyancy. Expectations are a significant rise in Retail Price Index figures year on year but a reduction month on month. Consumer Price Index figures are pointing at a slight increase year on year but a big reduction month on month. Lastly, Producer Price Index looks set to largely balance out so that is good news for the near future if forecasts proves to be accurate.

Looking over the pond at the US inflation and housing data, there appears a mixed bag of results expected. Housing starts seem to have an expectation of a big contraction but there looks as if the Producer Price Index data will be a move higher, which will push an increase in costs to consumers over time and increase inflation more generally but this has a likelihood to manifest in the requirement of tools to mute this price pressure, namely interest rate hikes. This would need to be a sustained factor for this conversation to play out in this way within the Federal Reserve.

Source

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

 

 

 

Inflation Data for EURUSD

13-02-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

Markets have once again turned risk averse overnight, with the Chinese city of Hubei the latest outbreak focus. With a European tech conference cancelled, as well as fears in South Korea and Japan. The medium and long-term impacts are still non quantified. Currency markets do not like uncertainty.

And so, the now go-to bellwether currency is the USD, which moved above the psychological level of 99.00 which has been touted for some days. As a consequence most currency pairs have moved lower against the Greenback. One of the more notable casualties is the most liquid pair – EURUSD. Generally regarded as a low volatility play, it’s has now moved down over 13.5 % in the last two years, and tests key support.

GBPEUR has gained momentarily as a result, and indeed UK importers can be buoyed by a much healthier session for GBP across the board. Risk bearing currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD have all suffered as a by-product, and will be dictated to by Geopolitical fears related to the Coronavirus outbreak.

Yesterday did not help the EUR on the data from with Industrial production numbers much lower than expected at -2.1%, a huge shift. And this fragility for the single currency will today be magnified by German CPI inflation releases. For the EURUSD traded pair, the release of US CPI inflation numbers later in the session could have a similar push/pull impact.

Back to the UK and today we see PM Boris Johnson reshuffle his cabinet, and whilst not significantly market moving; the emphasis will be closely eyed for negotiations with Brussels.

One final thing to note is the release this morning of the RICS house price balance numbers here in the UK. This number has shown a positive swing, the post UK. election decision clearly has people moving on up. Long may it continue.

 

Get in touch with XE.com

About XE.com

XE can help safeguard your profit margins and improve cashflow through quantifying the FX risk you face and implementing unique strategies to mitigate it. XE Business Solutions provides a comprehensive range of currency services and products to help businesses access competitive rates with greater control.

Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

Your company money is safe with XE, their NASDAQ listed parent company, Euronet Worldwide Inc., has a multibillion-dollar market capitalization, and an investment grade credit rating. With offices in the UK, Canada, Europe, APAC and North America they have a truly global coverage.

Are you curious to know more about XE?
Maurits Houthoff, senior business development manager at XE.com, is always in for a cup of coffee, mail or call to provide you detailed information.

 

 

Visit XE.com

Visit XE partner page

 

 

 

Back to the old days: Currency jargon in forex trading

14-01-2020 | Marco Lassche |

Nowadays the youth use apparently ‘stacks’ as a nickname for money. In forex we use already for a long time nicknames…

 

Recently I heard my son talking to one of his friends on the play station: “Hey bro, we need more stacks to go to the next level.”

When I asked him what is stacks: “Dad come on, you don’t know? Maybe you are getting too old for this (41?). Everybody knows that stacks is money.” Ouch…
My ‘old’ brain went back in time and this felt a bit like my first steps in the world of FOREX trading. At that time no electronic forex trading platforms were used. We traded still directly with banks / brokers by phone or Reuters messenger. Instead of Bro we used Mate. Instead of stacks we used the nicknames for the different currencies. For me the first days it felt like I was ended up in a scene of the Tower of Babel.

“Hey Mate, I need a Cable (GBP/USD) in two”. Later on I understood, this meant I want a price quote for a GBP/USD in 2 million GBP at which you can buy/sell GBP against the USD.

Now you know that stacks is money, and a cable is GBP/USD, it is time for some more nicknames in currency (pairs), and some background explanation:

Please feel free to contact me if you need any further information or assistance in setting up a more professional framework for controlling your financial risks and cash management in a more efficient way.

 

 

 

Marco Lassche 

Founder and Owner of at Bedrijfskostenexpert
Treasurer and Project Manager at Van Caem Klerks Group
treasuryXL Ambassador

To swap, or not to swap that is the question

30-9-2019 | Marco Lassche |

Cash management in different currencies:
The FX swap, a way to optimize your interest result

Years ago, when I made my first baby steps in the world of Treasury at Bank Mendes Gans, my old teachers Jan Loohuis and Aart-Jan Lensvelt, taught me some good lessons. One of them, that I always used in the companies that I have worked for, is this one.

What if you have temporary an overall negative position in one currency (e.g. -/- EUR 10 mio) and an overall positive position in another currency (e.g. +/+ USD 11 mio)?

Basically you have two easy ways to manage this liquidity position and optimize your interest result. Both ways lead to Rome:

  • Keep the balances in your bank account
  • You swap the balances in different currencies temporary by means of a FX-swap

Option 1: Keep the balances in your bank account
This option does not need much clarification.

  • For your debit balance you pay interest (basic interest +/+ margin)
  • For your credit balance you receive credit interest (basic interest -/- margin

Option 2: The FX swap
In a FX swap you do a trade in your FX trade portal, in which you exchange the bank balances at a spot date (at the spot rate) and you reverse it at a future date (at the forward-rate). You do the trade at the same time, so no FX risk is involved.

Forward FX-rates are being calculated directly from the spot FX-rate and are adjusted for the difference in interest rates between the two currencies.

FX swap visualised

Option 1 or option 2?
When the interest rate difference between the two currencies is more attractive in option 1, you keep your bank balances. When the interest rate difference between two currencies is more attractive in option 2, you swap.

Example
I would like to clarify it by an example in which we have a EUR balance of -/- EUR 10 mio and a
USD balance of +/+ USD 11 mio. We will swap the currencies for 1 month (30 days).

Interest results after 30 days

Option 1) Interest result by keeping balances in your bank account

Total interest proceeds in USD: EUR 2,708 * 1.1000 = USD 2,979 + USD 18,563 = USD 21,542.
Interest rate difference between USD and EUR: 2,35% (2.025% -/- 0.325%).

Option 2) Interest result by swapping balances

Interest result FX swap

At the start date we buy EUR 10 mio, and sell USD 11 mio at the spot rate 1.1000.
At the end date, after 30 days, we reverse the trade as we agreed with the bank:
We sell EUR 10 mio, and buy USD 11,025,770 at the agreed forward rate 1.102577

Our total interest rate difference proceeds is USD 11,025,770 – USD 11,000,000 = USD 25,770.

Conclusion:
In this example the FX swap is USD4,200 more attractive than keeping the account balances like it is. Of course, this is not always the case, but a FX swap can be a good alternative in many cases.

* How to calculate the interest rate difference between two currencies in a FX swap
As previously said, the difference in spot and forward rates, can be explained by the interest rate difference between two currencies, We calculate the interest rate differences as follows:

Forward Rate on annual basis / Spot Rate

As interest percentages are always based on 1 year we multiply the 30 days forward points by 12 to get to 1 year forward points (EUR and USD, calculate 360 days in a year, GBP e.g. 365 days).
The forward points for 30 days: 25.77, which means for one year 12 * 25.77 = 309.24
Forward rate on annual basis: 1.130924

Spot rate: 1.1000

1.130924/1.1000 = + 2,81%

Please feel free to contact me if you need any further information.

 

 

 

Marco Lassche 

Founder and Owner of at Bedrijfskostenexpert
Treasurer and Project Manager at Van Caem Klerks Group
treasuryXL Ambassador

 

 

Corporate Treasury have a problem and this is why…

| 23-07-2019 | by Pieter de Kiewit |

Cost savings created by good treasurers easily exceed the sum of salaries of their team. They can help open doors that otherwise stay closed for their business colleagues and they can help avoid risks. Then why do they have this modest seat at the table of CFOs and are they often not considered for succession of her/him? Why are SMEs complaining about the lack of funding opportunities, when treasurers have them available? Why are Basel regulations made by bankers and politicians, where are the corporate treasurers? Why does treasury education not have a more prominent place in education? Why do bankers earn the bigger bucks? Corporate treasury has a PROBLEM!

The non-treasurers (CFOs and business owners) often do not know, so they do not consider this a problem. I think they should, given my introduction. The treasurers I meet often experience the problem: they want to be educated, make career progression, be involved in business and have better salaries. Why do controllers or non-financials not encounter this issue, or at least in a lesser degree?

Based upon my many interview notes and the first results of the dataset of the Treasurer Test I have a first hypothesis (there will be more): the personality of people working in treasury. A Big5 personality assessment has been done in a treasury population of 100. What I see is that treasurers, on average, are easily as driven as the general population. That should be a proper foundation. Where they score substantially different is in two aspects:

  1. They do not make contact quickly
  2. They are not focused on convincing other people.

The two obvious solutions are bringing people with a different personality into the treasury field and stimulating the current population to speak up. As recruiters we hope to contribute by bringing (for example) bankers into corporate treasury. Bankers often show a different personality profile. Furthermore I think we should not try to change the personality of the current population, but skills training will most definitely help.

Do you see the problem and want to step up? I hope so.

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

Does your payment land in the correct currency account?

| 16-07-2019 | by Pieter de Kiewit |

Recently I received signals from a treasurer working in a mid-sized company about payments in various currencies landing on the wrong account. In a payment of USD 1 million, this could lead to extra cost of about USD 9,000! This results in extra cost and should be avoided…

In most SMEs in Europe a payment from US clients will be transferred in US dollars and lands in EURO’s. Banks facilitate this process and their fees consist of two parts:

  1. a transaction fee that is often a fixed fee or maximized percentage of the amount transferred
  2. a price to make Euro’s out of US dollars, following a conversion rate (the price you pay for buying dollars is different from the sell price, the difference is called “the spread”).

If you receive payments in US dollars regularly, you can consider opening a US dollar bank account. Therefore, you will avoid constant payment of the conversion rate. This is most relevant when you also make payments from this account. All big banks offer bank accounts in various currencies as a paid service.

Let’s take a deeper dive into the signals that I received: A foreign client made a payment in dollars with his dollar account. He transferred the dollars to the Euro account of my contact. This was all documented. Nevertheless, the bank charged transaction and conversion fees. Luckily this was discovered by my contact. After informing the bank about this issue, the bank repaired it all.

There could be various reasons why this happened. We all know that the global IT landscape in traditional banks consists of many different systems of a different age. A network problem could be a possible issue. The likelihood of this happening again is high, so be aware! Also, although we do not like this, it could be that this payment was handled manually. A mistake is easily made, hopefully not too frequent. It would be the worst case scenario when banks manipulate payments in order to claim fees. Let’s assume this is not the case.

The point I want to make: check if payments land on the proper currency account or it will cost you!

Any of you encountered misrouted payments?

PS From my own experience: in your ebanking environment, the default currency is not necessarily the currency the account is in. My GBP account had EURO as default currency…

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

Congres toekomst van het betalingsverkeer

| 25-3-2019 | Euroforum | treasuryXL |

Het jaarcongres Toekomst van het Betalingsverkeer is al 20 jaar dé ontmoetingsplaats voor alle Payment Professionals in Nederland. Om deze mijlpaal te vieren wordt het programma dit jaar nog uitgebreider dan voorheen.

Op verschillende podia vertellen (inter) nationale Keynote Speakers de meest interessante verhalen. Daarnaast bestaat het programma uit diverse co-creatie sessies en round tables waar de meest prangende vraagstukken van dit moment worden besproken. Bij dit proces is uiteraard de Adviesraad weer nauw betrokken.

What’s Going on in Payments?

Wat kunt u op 18 april verwachten?

> Circa 300 Payment experts van strategisch niveau aanwezig om u netwerk te vergroten.
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Voor meer informatie over het volledige programma, de sprekers en de locatie kunt u de website van het event bezoeken.