June 2026 FX Forecasts

Having finished April trading around 98.1, the DXY index entered June at 99.0, helped at the margin by a combination of factors. Data, oil, and risk have all proven positive for the buck over the past month, arguably a little more so than our prior forecasts had anticipated. We now expect much of that support to remain in place into mid-year.

Middle East tensions continue to trouble markets, which should help keep oil and risk conditions elevated. Meanwhile, US economic indicators are diverging from those of other advanced economies, where data is increasingly underwhelming. All told, this mix leaves us predicting little change for the buck through June, while further out, we now expect more limited greenback depreciation, reflecting the more dollar-positive conditions.