Global Political Risks by ICC Consultants

| 15-10-2018 | ICC Consultants | treasuryXL |

In deze blog worden de internationale politieke ontwikkelingen geanalyseerd die impact kunnen gaan hebben op de financiële markten en de mate waarin. De visie van ICC Consultants is gebaseerd op een groot netwerk binnen de wereldwijd toon-aangevende researchhuizen en 40 jaar ervaring in de financiële markten. Middels de weblink onderaan deze blog kunt u meerdere rapporten van ICC Consultants downloaden.

 

Iranian brake vs Saudi and Russian spigots

US president Trump has been trying to have his oil cake and eat it. On the one hand, the mercurial leader has been tightening the screws on Iran thereby keeping hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil from the market. On the other hand, the American president has been ripping into oil producers for being responsible – in his eyes – for high prices: “We protect the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices! We will remember. The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!” Trump’s Russian counterpart Putin said last week: “We had a very good meeting with President Trump in Helsinki. But if we had talked about [oil], I would tell him that if he wants to find the culprit for the surge in prices, ‘Donald, then you need to look in the mirror.’”

The main question keeping  oil traders and analysts at wake these days: will the fall in Iranian exports be compensated by Saudi Arabia and Russia pumping up more crude or will we see an impending supply crunch cause a further spike in the oil price? Already, Brent’s fifth consecutive quarterly increase  makes it the longest streak since 2008.  The magical $100 mark is getting mentioned more and more . September 2014 was the last time when Brent hit this level. US petrol prices have already been at the highest level since 2014 for quite some time.

November 4 is the US sanctions deadline for companies to stop buying Iranian oil. In anticipation of that cutoff date, Iranian oil exports have already fallen considerably. In June crude shipments from Iran totaled about 2.3 million barrels per day; last month those exports came to 1.5 mb/d.

Expectations for how much oil will be lost have steadily risen. Some analysts now even fear that Iranian exports could fall back all the way towards 500,000 b/d. Already, shipments to South Korea, France and Japan have halted.

Secret shortcuts?

The Economist Intelligence Unit describes six ways in which Teheran could and will try to keep crude flowing:

  • Diplomacy: For example, Iran could offer China concessions when it comes to Beijing’s massive Belt and Road Initiative in return for a promise by the Chinese to keep buying Iranian crude. India wants to tighten its grip on the Iranian port of Chabahar. India has already committed significant political and diplomatic resources to the project, which it hopes will counter Pakistan’s Gwadar port, in which China has a significant stake.
  • Ghost tankers: During previous rounds of sanctions Teheran still managed to get quite some oil out by ducking the roaming eye of Washington through turning off the system that allows traders to track the movements of tankers. Iran has already started with this tactic and most experts believe that Teheran has a fleet of ghost ships carrying oil and no longer sending out tracking signals.
  • Cut prices: In August it became clear that Iran is offering discounts to its Asian customers. The regime could broaden the number of countries it is proposing these rebates to and it could bump up the discounts.
  • Private sector: Iran could try and sell its oil on the Iranian bourse with the buyers then being allowed to export the crude oil.
  • Trading in other currencies than the dollar: Teheran is trying to convince other nations to do deals in local currencies instead of the dollar. In this way, it could be able to circumvent American sanctions (which aim to punish financial institutions facilitating Iranian trade).
  • Barter deals: the other way to avoid doing business in dollars. By trading goods for goods Iran could resume the scheme that it used to try to blunt the impact of previous sanctions between 2012 and 2016. Iran would probably accept agricultural products and medical equipment in exchange for its crude.

 Through these various methods Iran will be able to at least get some oil out to customers. However, from next month onwards, the number of barrels Teheran manages to export will no doubt decrease further.

No end in sight

A deal between the US and Iran is nowhere close as the International Court of Justice ruled against Washington in a case brought by Teheran whereby the judges ruled that the US is breaking the 1955 Treaty of Amity. Washington has replied by not accepting the ruling but by claiming it will withdraw from the treaty. Moreover, over at Washington the so-called NOPEC Act  is getting a fresh look. This bill would remove the sovereign immunity that has long shielded OPEC members from legal action by the Americans. A version of NOPEC had managed to make it through Congress in 2007, but it was pulled after then president Bush threatened to veto it. This time also, the bill probably won’t make it, but it nevertheless makes clear that tensions between the US and (other) oil producers are on the rise. Another example of this is the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA), which allows victims of the 9/11 attacks to sue Riyadh. The law is seen as key to why state-run Saudi Aramco was hesitant in publicly listing its shares on US markets in an IPO that has since been shelved.

In Iran, the political class and the mullahs could be prompted to continue their hardline by the results of a recent poll in which large majorities declare their support for the country’s current foreign policy.

Swing producers to the rescue?

It remains to be seen whether other suppliers will fill in the gap caused by the Iranian crisis. By this time, Saudi Arabia is producing at levels that amount to its highest on record: 10.7 mb/d. Some experts doubt whether the kingdom will be able to significantly raise its production numbers.

 

Russia is also closing in on its maximum production level, due to – among other things – the lack of international capital flowing in to finance domestic energy projects and the challenges importing essential equipment caused by sanctions Russia faces as a result of among other things its actions in Ukraine and Georgia and its spy adventures all over the west. Russia’s deputy energy minister claims that current potential for upping production is around 200,000-300,000 b/d up to the end of 2019 from the current level. Already, Russian oil production has risen to a post-Soviet record of 11.4 mb/d.

The other giant producer, the US itself, struggles with infrastructure bottlenecks. Drillers in the western parts of Texas have put too much pressure on the regions infrastructure. Thereby driving up costs and putting downward pressure on the price for a barrel of oil; if you don’t have the means of turning the crude to practical usage, the oil obviously becomes less valuable. The more so since pipelines are also in desperate need of upgrades and extensions.

The more Saudis and others pump up to compensate for Iranian (and for example Venezuelan) shortfalls, the more spare capacity disappears and the more already lingering doubts about how much more the big players can add to their production levels will build up.

Slowing world economy

Considering all of the above, it seems upward pressure on oil prices from the supply side is the most likely in the months to come. What about the demand side? According to BP, oil consumption in the developed markets has peaked. Therefore higher demand in the future will largely depend on the emerging markets. As Bloomberg columnist David Fickling put it: “When they sneeze, the global oil market may yet catch a cold.” And a cold seems to be doing the rounds lately within the EM. Fickling points out that for EM oil is already as expensive as it was during the peak in 2008. This as a result of the slump many EM currencies find themselves in. For example, the oil price in reals broke its 2008 record last March and is now 50% higher than its level ten years ago. So, from this perspective, we could see some downward pressure on oil prices as crude is simply becoming too expensive for many nations.

In addition, general economic worries are on the rise as IMF chief Lagarde attested to last week when see said: “For most countries, it has become more difficult to deliver on the promise of greater prosperity, because the global economic weather is beginning to change.” So as global financial conditions are becoming less forgiving – with rising interest rates, a strengthening dollar etc – high crude prices are inflicting even more pain on oil importing emerging countries in particular. They see their current account deficits growing. Usually you would expect a depreciation of the currency of such a country resulting in more exports that would make up for the increased costs of buying oil. Not now: growth of world trade is slowing and many of these countries have high dollar debts that have become a major burden due to the strong dollar.

So demand side constraints are building up. In the short term supply side risks i.e. the kicking in of sanctions against Iran could drive the prices up a bit more, but world economic growth is to slow in 2019 and together with overly bullish long positions outnumbering bearish short ones by a ratio of more than 12:1 (the record was 14:1 back in April) we expect demand side factors to overtake worries about the supply side and causing a pullback of Brent towards $70-$80 levels in the months to quarters ahead.

Chart-technical analysis

A large upward trend is already dominant since early 2016. Objective measures of trend direction – the price is above both the upward sloping 50-day and 200-day moving average – indicate the same. As such, the level of $89 – the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the multi-year decline from 2014 – is the minimal technical target in the coming weeks and months.

Still, bear in mind that past weeks’ strong gains have left Brent crude oil very stretched as it is trading around two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average. Also, the 14-day Relative Strength index has reached overbought levels (above 70) that, in the past quarters, were accompanied by at least – temporary – top forming (see graph). All the above will likely set the stage at least a sideways consolidation or a pullback first to digest these strong gains.

Furthermore, market sentiment towards the oil complex is highly positive. For example, the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) showed a vast amount of bulls (> 90%) for WTI crude oil last week. Moreover, the Commitment of Traders report shows that hedge funds & other speculators are still holding rather large net-long positions in both Brent and WTI crude oil. Such optimism also makes oil vulnerable for a setback. If so, we can expect a decline towards short-term support in Brent just above $80. Finally, prices below $80 to a significant degree will likely trigger a larger correction towards the next support area near $72.

Het rapport is geschreven door Andy Langenkamp, politiek analist bij ICC Consultants. Op de website van
ICC Consultants kunt u meer rapporten downloaden.

Partnership Cashforce and BNP Paribas

| 03-10-2018 | Cashforce | treasuryXL |

BNP Paribas and Cashforce enter into a partnership to offer digital cash flow forecasting and working capital services to corporate treasurers. Through this partnership, BNP Paribas will offer to its clients Cashforce’s next-generation digital cash forecasting and treasury management solutions, focused on analytics, automation and integration. To further extend its commitment to this partnership, BNP Paribas also invested in Cashforce.

Pursuing the digitalisation of its Corporate clients’ user experience, BNP Paribas today announced it has sealed a partnership with Cashforce, a Fintech company that will allow the Bank to enhance client journeys within cash management and trade finance. Through this partnership, Corporates will experiment a digital, autonomous and cross-banking solution for their day to day transaction banking needs: by connecting its treasury department with other business and finance departments, and by offering full transparency into the cash flow drivers, accurate and automated cash flow forecasting and treasury reporting.

BNP Paribas continues to invest in its digital offering to treasurers and this partnership – which brings the transaction banking business another step closer to open banking – reflects its technology-centric focus and leadership. The platform is unique in its category because of the seamless integration with numerous ERP systems and financial data sources, the ability to drill down the transaction level details, and the intelligent AI-based simulation engine that enables multiple cash flow scenarios, forecasts and impact analyses.

“This partnership with Cashforce marks a new step in our digital transformation and illustrates our commitment to offering our clients the best-in-class solutions they deserve, wherever they come from. Forming agile partnerships with innovative Fintechs like Cashforce, who leverage new technologies such as AI, helps us to significantly accelerate the digitalisation of our customer journey in the area of transaction banking,” commented Jacques Levet, Head of Transaction Banking EMEA BNP Paribas.

“The partnership with BNP Paribas will further boost our international expansion and make more treasury departments work with accurate, efficient and best-in-class cash flow analytics and cash forecasting solutions. Also our working capital analytics engine will further strengthen the integrated banking and trade finance experience for BNP Paribas’s clients.”  added Nicolas Christiaen, CEO of Cashforce.

The platform will be available to clients through CENTRIC, BNP Paribas’ integrated digital banking platform that gives corporate & institutional actors instant access to the spectrum of BNP Paribas’ online financial services.

The full article can be read on the Cashforce website.

BNP Paribas also posted an article about the partnership which can be found here: https://group.bnpparibas/en/press-release/bnp-paribas-cashforce-enter-partnership-offer-digital-cash-flow-forecasting-working-capital-services-corporate-treasurers


Cashforce – Cash forecasting & Smart Treasury

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Real and fake risk control – Treasurers and recruiters benefit and suffer

| 25-09-2018 | by  Pieter de Kiewit |

As owner of a small company I have been listening to people complaining about regulatory and compliance affairs for a long time. 2018 will be the year these affairs have a substantial impact on my business and now I can understand the complaints. Both treasurers, recruiters and, I expect, many others in our society, struggle finding the balance in correcting what goes wrong and the hassle of too many rules. Some simple examples: 

  • ING is punished hard for money laundering and I suspect just so. The rules are in place but not applied. My assumption is that target setting beats following the rules;
  • Some large corporates nowadays hire recruitment outsourcing parties that do the procurement of my services. One of them required me to inform them about the payrolling of my staff because: “in Bangladesh there is child labour and we want to prevent you make the same mistake”;
  • One of my clients is a subsidiary of an international conglomerate and decided to implement the services of a new cash management bank. The project has been on hold because the HQ of the conglomerate and the bank cannot agree upon the know your customer (KYC) regulations, much to frustration of all involved;
  • GDPR is implemented, also to control the power of large internet firms. Of course these regulations also apply to my business but did any of you read my new privacy statement or actually read cookie statements? Bureaucracy rules!

I think 99% of us know what is the right thing in 99% of the cases. This is what our parents taught us. That does not mean we will do the right thing. In the current situation, regulators want to solve issues by creating new rules. I am happy that applying the rules with consequences, as with ING, is being done increasingly. I think the structural solution does not lie in more rules.

Hopefully we can all start a dialogue about what is right and act upon it. Customers and clients, family members, colleagues, countries, teachers and students. Not blindly following the rules, but following them because we understand and agree. I am aware that this sounds might sound soft and is not possible in all situations. With many of our clients we cooperate successfully based upon a few bullet points in an email. That’s the way I like it.

Will you share your thoughts?

Pieter de Kiewit

 

 

Pieter de Kiewit
Owner Treasurer Search

 

 

 

5 steps for optimizing payment transactions

| 13-09-2018 | TIS | treasuryXL |

They are one of the most important economic transactions and since all times have provided us with order and structure, but at the same time they have been a nuisance, because they are equally complex and essential. They come in the form of cash payments, semi-cash payments and non-cash payments, with the latter definitely at the forefront. But in order to organize payment transactions optimally, there are a few things that need attention.

In this article you will find out everything on how to renew your payment transactions, making them more transparent, simpler and more secure. At the same time, you can keep up with digital transformation.

Step 1: Getting an Overview

Regarding innovations in payment transactions, there are many items that require attention. For this reason, it is important to get an initial overview of the current payment transactions situation and a breakdown of the complexity of the factors contained in this term. You should be able to answer questions regarding current payment formats, including abroad, bank communication and possible bank connections before you start making any changes. You should also take into consideration your own payment transactions, in order to recognize weaknesses and potential improvements. Only then will you know if there is still potential for optimization and where the innovation process needs to start.

Step 2: Setting Goals

As is the case with successfully mastering any task, it is important to first set goals in advance and to monitor the results to be achieved. In this way, you prevent inaccurate or unwanted results and a lengthy change process. In order to define your goals, you should compare and consider the potential connections to the bank, systems and formats which are to be used in the future. Moreover, an initial conceptional model of the potential new banking landscape should be developed.

Once the first two steps have been carefully considered, it is down to the nitty gritty: making better decisions.

You can read the full article on the website of Treasury Intelligence Solutions GmbH.

 

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PGO Treasury and Corporate Finance (RT) will start shortly – only a few places left

| 27-08-2018 | VU Amsterdam | treasuryXL |

In previous blogs we informed you about the post graduate education treasury at the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. This will be the first year that the program will be in English. As in previous years, a nice mix of treasury experts with different professional backgrounds will start in September. The VU informed us only a few places are left.

KEY FACTS ON THE PROGRAM

The postgraduate executive programme Treasury Management & Corporate Finance combines two finance disciplines Treasury Management and Corporate Finance. These disciplines largely overlap and are even inextricably connected.

This postgraduate executive program is running now for more than 20 years at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. It is an unique program in The Netherlands and even abroad.

As from September 2018 the program will be given entirely in English in order to connect to the increasingly larger community of non-Dutch speaking finance professionals in The Netherlands.

The completion of this postgraduate executive program is rewarded by the title Register Treasurer. This title is well known and well recognized by the community of treasury professionals.

The curriculum is organized in 6 modules which each cover a clear sub discipline in Treasury management and Corporate Finance. Each module comprises of 6 lecture days on Thursday (starting at noon until 20:00). It is an intensive and efficient program which lasts for 1.5 years.

The postgraduate executive program Treasury Management & Corporate Finance is strategic partner of the Dutch Association Corporate Treasurers (DACT).

Partners of the program are KPMG, Orchard Finance, PwC and Zanders Treasury & Finance Solutions. Senior affiliates lecture in the program.

If you want more information about the program you can contact de Vrije Universteit.

 

 

Global Political Risks

| 23-08-2018 | ICC Consultants | treasuryXL |

In deze blog worden de internationale politieke ontwikkelingen geanalyseerd die impact kunnen gaan hebben op de financiële markten en de mate waarin. De visie van ICC Consultants is gebaseerd op een groot netwerk binnen de wereldwijd toon-aangevende researchhuizen en 40 jaar ervaring in de financiële markten. Deze blog bevat gedeeltes van het totale rapport. Het volledige rapport kunt u downloaden middels de weblink onderaan deze blog.

 

Brengt Turkse torpedo stieren aan het zinken?

Turkije ligt onder vuur van de financiële markten. Turkije is ook een van de grotere spelers in het uitdijende kamp van staten die zich meer en bewegen in autoritaire richting. Vijfenvijftig jaar geleden zag JFK al in dat een geheel liberaal-democratische wereld er (voorlopig) niet in zat. Hij wilde dan in elk geval zeker stellen dat in de wereld plaats was voor een vreedzaam bestaan van zowel liberale democratieën als andere vormen van bestuur naast elkaar. Na de Koude Oorlog ontstond in alle Westerse euforie even het idee dat de kapitalistische democratie niet meer te stoppen was. Deze overtuiging is (vooralsnog) gelogenstraft door o.a. China en Rusland…

Welvaart in ruil voor je mond houden

In veel van die landen – inclusief China, Rusland en eigenlijk ook Turkije – gold en geldt de impliciete afspraak tussen overheid en volk van sterke economische groei in ruil voor politieke passiviteit. Dat is de vriendelijke manier om het te beschrijven, want veelal zal een regime het natuurlijk niet accepteren als het volk af wil van deze constructie (zoals we de laatste jaren al vaker hebben gezien). Leiders in deze landen zijn  er ook niet gerust op: in de afgelopen vijf jaar zijn in meer dan tien procent van de landen in de wereld politieke wisselingen van de wacht geweest als gevolg van (onvrede over) corruptie….

Uiterst kwetsbaar model

Het is de vraag of de wereld zoals JFK die zei voor ogen te hebben – waarin democratische en autoritaire landen in relatieve vrede naast elkaar kunnen bestaan – stand kan houden in dit tijdsgewricht. Leiders als Trump, Poetin, Xi Jinping en Erdogan plaatsen steeds meer vraagtekens bij de door het Westen vormgegeven wereldorde.  Deze leiders worden in de kaart gespeeld door de uit de bocht gevlogen vormen van kapitalisme die je zou kunnen aanduiden als winner-takes-all-capitalism, groeiende ongelijkheid, stagnerende of dalende reële lonen en grote culturele maatschappelijke veranderingen…

Le Trente Glorieuse is niet meer

De periode tot ruwweg de  jaren zeventig wordt veelal aangeduid als Le Trente Glorieuse: een periode met – vooral in het Westen – de prachtige combinatie van hoge economische groei,  toenemende productiviteit, stijgende reële lonen, sterke technologische vooruitgang en de gestage uitbreiding van de  verzorgingsstaat /sociale vangnetten.  In feite was het een tijd waarin efficiëntie, gelijkheid en volledige werkgelegenheid veelal samengingen. Die periode is duidelijk voorbij, wat tot veel onvrede onder bevolkingen leidt, tot de draai richting populisten en tot een meer naar binnen gekeerde opstelling….

Loper uitgerold voor beren

Vanuit politiek oogpunt zijn wel voldoende aanknopingspunten voor bears. De groei wordt bedreigd door identiteitspolitiek, het ondermijnen van instituten die de veiligheid en economische groei de afgelopen zeven decennia hebben geholpen en protectionisme en andere initiatieven die internationale productieketens en andere vormen van globalisering in gevaar brengen.

In Europa werd na de verkiezingen in Nederland en Frankrijk in de eerste helft van 2017 gedacht dat het populisme op zijn retour is. Niets lijkt minder waar: in bijvoorbeeld Italië, Oostenrijk, Hongarije en Polen leiden populisten regeringen, in Zweden staan rechts-populisten op de eerste plaats in de peilingen en in Duitsland zijn ze nummer twee…..

Oorlog op vele fronten

Dergelijke ontwikkelingen hoeven niet van vandaag op morgen tot paniek op de markten te leiden, maar ze zaaien wel de zaden voor verdere verzwakking van groeipotentieel. Tot nu toe werd het meest gevreesd voor de gevolgen van een handelsoorlog, maar de combinatie van handelsconflicten, geopolitieke waaghalzerij en rollen van de spierballen en de weaponizing of finance is juist de grote dreiging. James Mackintosh – columnist van de Wall Street Journal – wees er al op dat handelsoorlogen weliswaar niet goed zijn voor de economische groei, maar dat ze zelden een recessie inluiden of de groei echt hard raken. Dat in tegenstelling tot financiële crises die een lange lijst van economische slachtoffers hebben achtergelaten……

Het volledige rapport dat geschreven is door Andy Langenkamp, politiek analist bij ICC, kunt u downloaden op de website van ICC Consultants.

 

What corporate treasury can learn from corporate insurance

15-06-2018 | Treasurer Search | TreasuryXL |

Last week Treasurer Search sent it’s monthly newsletter that included below article. Not all people in the market will think the same as the author, but we think it is definitely an interesting way of looking at our insurance colleagues.

 

One of the many benefits of being a recruiter is that every meeting is a lecture of an expert about his professional life and developments. An excellent way to learn and keep up-to-date. Every second week I try to transfer this knowledge to my colleagues in Team Treasurer Search and the risk topic often gets attention. I also want to share my observations about insurance and treasury with you.

First, perhaps a bit cynical, why is corporate insurance reporting to the group treasurer more often? The importance and professional level of insurance is increasing, this is also acknowledged by CFOs. To prevent their span of control becoming too big, they delegate the profession to legal, procurement and recently often to treasury. Many treasurers are not motivated by insurance tasks and ignore the overlap that exists. Traditionally the risk types “market risk” and “liquidity risk” create primary tasks for treasury departments that often motivate the candidates I meet. Recently counterparty or credit risk gets a bigger role, not only with financial services companies. My recent conversations with corporate insurance managers brought me new insights in how risk can be analysed and managed.

In previous blogs I wrote that “new school treasurers” distinguish themselves by better connecting with their business partners and provide understandable solutions that make sales, operations and finance happy. Insurance managers were already forced to talk with the business their whole life. If an insurance manager does not understand what his business partners do, he will not be able to make a proper assessment of the risk. And that does include all types of risk: staff getting sick, goods not being supplied, tornados, computer viruses, politicians starting embargos, etcetera. They are closer to enterprise risk managers than treasurers are. By now there are practical and scientific strategies to mitigate various risk types. Insurance managers know.

In my perception treasurers can learn from insurance how to connect to business partners and help them finding solutions for complex and diverse problems. Do you think me setting them on a pedestal is right or am I too positive?

If you want to find out more about Treasurer Search and their services visit their company profile on treasuryXL.

Cyber Security and Business Intelligence

| 5-6-2018 | TIS |

Fintech Hotseat – AFP 2017: Alongside smaller companies, there are still many medium and large sized companies that have not yet implemented real-time monitoring of their payment processes. The result? These organizations then fail to discover missing cash until the end of the month. In this interview during the AFP Conference 2017 Giancarlo Laudini, SVP Global Sales and Marketing Operations, gives you insights how business intelligence can help you to prevent cyber crime and fraud in your organisation.

To see full interview click here

Content originally posted on TIS on 15/1/2018

Cash flow forecasting – more than just safeguarding liquidity

| 4-6-2018 | Gerald Dorrer | TIPCO Treasury & Technology GmbH |

“We don’t need cash flow forecasting” – statements like this are frequently heard at companies with significant cash reserves. They often highlight concerns about major internal expenses as capturing the relevant data can tie up significant resources. Modern cash flow forecasting, however, is about far more than just safeguarding against insolvency. And using up-to-date technologies only minimal efforts are needed to implement a forecast that will provide you with an array of insightful data. 

The easy way to achieve modern forecasting

Many of the data needed for cash flow forecasting already exist in various systems. ERP systems are a particularly efficient data source. For example, this is where you’ll find all of your receivables and payables, including the associated due dates and terms of payment. These data alone will already provide much of what you need. You can also find other influential factors here such as the volumes of regular salary payments. Modern forecasting systems already come complete with an interface to ERPs, making it possible to import these data at the press of a button and take them into account in your forecasts.

Another helpful tool is predictive analytics. Although the statistical methods which predictive analytics are based on have already existed for quite some time, modern technologies now make it possible to use these in practice. Predictive analytics is the key to leveraging historical data to predict future developments with an amazing degree of accuracy. A good example of the advantages offered by this procedure is in the case of a company with seasonal fluctuations in terms of its revenues. If you already have a target figure for revenues in the coming year, then predictive analytics will be able to rapidly and accurately break this down into sales for the individual months. But far more complex scenarios are also conceivable, such as the early identification of trends by means of automated analyses of social media data which can ultimately be translated into cash flows.

Flexibility

But which factors characterise a modern forecasting system?

Besides the criteria mentioned above (a connection to existing data sources and predictive analytics), flexibility is the most important factor – in all respects.

A modern system will allow you to freely define the structure of your forecasting within just a few minutes. Regardless of whether you need standard forecasting of operational and non-operational payments and financial cash flows or whether your company mainly engages in project-related business, you should be able to freely define the structure and the details of your cash flow categorisation. On the other hand, it should also be possible to rely on templates provided by the system in order to start the process using a structure tailored to your specific industry.

At the same time, modern systems also allow you to be flexible in terms of your forecasting horizon. Everything should be possible: from short-term day-by-day forecasting required by banks for companies facing critical cash flow bottlenecks, to long-term forecasting with a horizon of several years. Top-of-the-line systems can even offer you the option of mixing daily, weekly and monthly data in order, for example, to forecast the next seven days on a daily basis, the following twelve weeks on a weekly basis and the remaining nine months on a monthly basis. You can specify how the weekly and monthly values are automatically distributed. This means that you are free to define how previous figures with a low degree of granularity appear at the weekly or daily level after the next data rollover.

Flexibility is also required when it comes to displaying the data. Modern systems offer you several features which enable you to investigate the causes of significant differences between the current and earlier forecasts. For example, switch between the various levels of granularity, whether in terms of the structure or the timeline, or compare forecast and actual figures, or even forecasts from different points in time. Thanks to these flexible display options, expensive analysis tools are no longer necessary; all you need to do is take a quick look at your system.

More than just safeguarding liquidity

The primary purpose of forecasting of course remains ensuring sufficient liquidity. Based on your current cash reserves, the cash flows captured for future time periods are aggregated to provide you with the forecast of cash available at the end of every period. This makes it possible to quickly spot cash bottlenecks.

If your system also offers you the option of managing your credit facilities and their due dates, and integrating these into your cash flow forecasting, then this will enable you to quickly determine when credit lines will need to be drawn on or when they will need to be increased. This is just one of the many aspects which make it clear how significantly you can be supported by a well-designed system.

Systems which also permit you to forecast on a currency-differentiated basis offer considerable additional benefits. This feature will allow you to capture all cash flows in the original transaction currency. The advantage here is that, as soon as you have prepared the forecast, you not only have an overview of the development of liquidity but also of your FX risk exposures. If your system also allows you to manage FX hedge transactions, a comparison of FX payments and these hedge transactions will enable you to determine your unhedged FX exposure in no time at all. The latest systems can even automatically generate hedge proposals based on the unhedged exposure which are then automatically forwarded to your trading system in a workflow-based process once these have been confirmed and approved.

Conclusion

Technological progress has made preparing a cash flow forecast easier today than ever before. Even if no liquidity bottlenecks are currently likely at your company, due to the ongoing reduction in the expenses involved, it nonetheless makes little sense to take unnecessary risks and to pass up on the advantages that comprehensive cash flow forecasting offers.

 

Gerald Dorrer – Manager TIPCO Treasury & Technology GmbH 

 

Content originally posted on Cash & Treasury Management File on 26/3/2018

 

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Does technology actually help you improve your cash management?

| 31-5-2018 | Nicolas Christiaen | Cashforce |

It is a question that many companies have been asking themselves for the past few years. Innovative, dedicated technologies may be very exciting, but the question remains: Are they worth the investment?

We believe the answer is yes, but understanding the technology & its shortcomings are key to exploiting its full potential. Companies that are missing today’s “FinTech train” might find themselves in precarious situations in the future. They risk becoming relatively less productive and might lack insights that their technology-driven competitors will have. This is certainly true when it comes to Cash & Working Capital Management. Technology is definitely an asset in today’s world, as it can help us driving value from working capital. Interconnectivity has risen significantly, with the surge of in-house banks, cash pooling, POBO, ROBO, etc., forcing treasury departments to keep up with the pace and find ways to manage complex treasury set-ups. On top of that, the number of transactions has grown to such a level that only high-level calculations can be done by humans. Technology helps companies to deal with this magnitude of data and reduces complexity by bringing visibility in companies’ cash flows.

Also, the surge of centralization (look at the number of centralized treasury teams) reduced the number of double tasks and improved the efficiency of Treasury Operations. However, at the same time, keeping treasury connected with the business is becoming the new challenge. In this continuous paradox, technology will prove helpful in connecting both worlds.

However, we need a good understanding of limits & shortcomings of technology too. Today’s systems are capable of calculating expected outcomes & action plans based on a set of parameters. However, technology is not smart enough yet to take into account all parameters (like macro-economic parameters, unexpected events, changes of policies) & and most of all human (= irrational) behavior.

There is a legitimate drive towards using technology, as complexity rises, as is the need for more transparency. Two interesting evolutions are simultaneously taking place: Niche players are betting on making the technology smarter, whilst corporates are getting better at smartly using that technology. There is no reason to believe this will stop in the near future.

 

 

 

Nicolas Christiaen

Managing Partner at Cashforce