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How long can interest rates stay so low?
| 08-09-2016 | Lionel Pavey |
How long can interest rates stay so low? When we talk about interest rates, it is helpful if we know the basic theory of how the level of an interest rate is determined.Classical thinking states that there are 5 components in interest rates (x).
5 Components in interest rates:
These, together, are called the nominal interest rate
A review of various data providers show that the “indicative rate” for a bullet loan with a maturity of 5 years for a Dutch local authority would be 0.06% per annum. Let us look as this rate compared to the 5 components already mentioned.
C, D and E are all premia and would, therefore, have a positive value. Even if their collective value was zero, it would imply that “nominal” 5 year interest rate would be 0.06%. This nominal rate, as previously stated, comprises both the risk free rate and the expected inflation.This leads to the presumption that either risk free rates are zero or that future expectations of inflation are negative.
According to the ECB inflation (HICP) index in July 2016 prices rose by 0.2% as an annual percentage change. The target inflation rate for the ECB is below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Central banks set interest rates whilst keeping a watchful eye on headline and expected future inflation (it is a lagging indicator). Many studies claim that inflation indices overstate the true inflation figure, which would imply that the true inflation change would be zero or slightly negative.
If we were to enter a recession now there would be no room to use monetary policy as done previously as there is no space to lower rates any further. This would then only leave fiscal policy, but there is no unity within the Euro zone on fiscal policy.
It would appear that the present policy of quantitive easing (QE) has lead us to very low interest rates coupled with minimal inflation and no significant growth in GDP. Therefore, it is not improbable to envisage the current period of very low interest rates being maintained for quite some time in the future.
Furthermore, when QE stops, the ECB will eventually have to sell the bonds they are holding. Such an action could, conceivably, lead to a large rise in interest rates causing disruptions in the economic cycle. In the current environment, monetary policy can not revive the economy.
Lionel Pavey
Cash Management and Treasury Specialist – Flex Treasurer
Instant Payments: major innovation ahead! How fast is “the new normal”?
| 07-09-2016 | Boudewijn Schenkels |
After the introduction of SEPA the market is ready for further innovation. New payment laws (PSD2) make the payment market more competitive and new payment providing parties are anxious to participate. The continuous development of the ‘always on’ economy drives the need for faster and 24/7 payment execution.
According to the European Retail Payment Board (ERPB), an instant or immediate payment is an electronic (retail) payment solution, available 24/7/365 and resulting in immediate interbank clearing of the transaction and crediting of the payee’s account with confirmation to the payer within seconds of payment initiation, irrespective of the underlying payment instrument used and arrangements for clearing. Basically: sending and receiving payments 24/7 within seconds. National instant payment solutions have already been successfully launched in a number of European countries, such as Denmark, Poland, Sweden and the UK.
The SEPA Instant Payment, based on the SEPA Credit Transfer, can be offered in SEPA by November 2017; with the Rulebooks for this so called SCT Inst scheme becoming available in November this year. Some communities will offer Instant Payments from the start, others will follow later, but not offering Instant Payments doesn’t seem to be an option. Various other countries, including The Netherlands, Belgium, Spain and Italy, are running programmes to deliver Instant Payments to their communities in the coming years. The major Dutch banks have committed themselves to deliver Instant Payments, or what they call: “the new normal”, by May 2019.
Instant Payments in itself will offer new interesting payments use cases, but it will certainly serve as a platform to support many new innovative payments services.
Impact for Treasurers and Cash managers
For treasurers and cash managers there will be large changes as well as opportunities. For a long time banks have provided cash pooling solutions to their customers, but Instant Payments will allow to sweep accounts at any time to enable efficient cash pooling and distribution eventually throughout Europe.
Another few examples of these “future” use cases are:
You will say, “too good to be true”, but they are all in scope for “the new normal”. I would like to say: be aware of all the changes and business opportunities for your organization and prepare yourself!
Boudewijn Schenkels
Senior Consultant Payments @ Payments Advisory Group
Managing interest rate and liquidity risk
| 06-09-2016 | Rob Söentken |
Funding is one of the key focus areas of a treasurer. There are numerous dimensions to funding:
1. Assessing amount and timing of cashflows
2. Arranging access to funding
3. Developing and implementing hedging policy
4. Optimizing funding cost and risk
Assessing amount and timing of cashflows
Assessing the amount and timing of cashflows is a continuous process. Because needs can change both in short and long term.
Arranging access to funding
Matching funding needs with supply from financial institutions is also a continuous process. The typical approach would be to match tenors, but immediate access to cash is critical for the survival of any entity. It could be considered to arrange longer term financing, even for short term (revolving) funding needs. The downside is that long term access is more expensive than short term access. This may be acceptable, but if the spread between borrowing and lending excess cash is too wide, it will become very unattractive to borrow for long tenors.
Developing and implementing hedging policy
To ensure the treasurer works within the boundaries of his mandate, he has to develop a hedging policy which must be documented (‘on paper’) and approved by his management. The document should describe the whole area of funding, to ensure both the creation and hedging of risks are described.
Optimizing funding cost and risk
The main focus drifts towards reducing funding cost. The funding market typically has a steep cost curve, meaning that rates are higher for longer tenors. This results from a steep ‘risk free’ curve and / or from a steep ‘credit spread’ curve. Which often brings entities to borrow for the cheapest tenor possible, being monthly, weekly or even overnight funding. Funding for very short tenors creates the considerable risk that can cause a company to run into a liquidity crisis, in case access to funding disappears. How to deal with this dilemma?
The best approach is to define a number of scenarios to assess the impact of combinations of financing and hedging on funding and risk. A base scenario could be to finance all funding needs using overnight loans. In case of liquidity problems, what would be the impact on the funding rates? Another scenario would be using quarterly funding or yearly rollover funding, potentially combined with:
What are the incremental funding cost? What are incremental operational expenses of running various products? Can the entity deal with managing margin requirements? Is the entity aware of the basis risks involved when using credit derivatives, which are fairly complex products?
Rob Söentken
Ex-derivatives trader