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Graphs with no time line – why and how
| 7-8-2017 | Lionel Pavey |
A key role within the Treasury function is providing forecasts to the directors and management. Graphs are a frequently used tool of course.
When constructing graphs it is normal to put time on the horizontal x axis and read the prices from left to right – from old to new. Visually, this appeals to us as we normally read from left to right. However, when the price does not change much for a long period of time the graph no longer looks fluid – there is a period of activity, followed by a long period of almost standing still, followed by another period of activity. To try and eliminate this period of inactivity whilst still presenting the data requires an approach where sequential time is removed from the equation. This brings us to the last article in this series.
The following two graphs ignore time and focus purely on changes in the price that have been filtered to meet specific criteria.
Renko Charts
Prices are represented by blocks – hollow for upward movements and solid for price falls.
Every block has a predefined value – if we were showing interest rates a block could represent 5 basis points. If we had an upward price movement this means that the following upward block can only been drawn once prices have risen more than 5 basis points from the last block. If the price moved up 4 basis points and then dropped by 3 basis points, no additional blocks would be added to the graph.
Blocks are plotted at a 45 degree angle showing upward and downward sloping price changes.
Price reversals are shown when prices have moved more than 2 blocks in the opposite direction. Yet again if we had an upward slope and the price was 1.25 (our blocks are set to 0.05 or 5 basis points) we would require a downward movement of more than 0.15 (15 basis points) to 1.10 to draw 2 solid blocks downwards.
What remains is a very smooth representation of price movements with a uniform value for every block, whilst filtering out smaller movements that have been filtered out by the conditions set on block size.
Point and Figure Charts
Price changes are represented by vertical columns – X’s for rising prices and O’s for falling prices.
As with Renko charts, the X’s and O’s have a predetermined size and a price reversal is shown when prices change by 3 boxes as opposed to 2 on a normal Renko chart. When direction changes a new column is drawn to the right of the present column. Otherwise, the same criteria is applied to both charts except point and figure show true vertical columns as opposed to 45 degree lines.
So why would someone look at prices in this particular way? Such a chart does not necessarily show the latest price – the predefined filters ensure that only price changes that meet the criteria are shown.
The main advantages include:
All the techniques shown in this series are applicable to everyday analysis and everyone has their favourite approach. Some like to see all data, whilst others prefer to see filtered, smoother data. The eternal question when looking at charts and seeing the current trend is to ask “where will the price go?” Initially, the immediate answer is that price will follow the current trend until such time as it does not anymore. This might seem a cheap flippant answer, but it is the truth. We have firmly established that we need to know the price in the past to determine if the present price movement is in a clearly established trend. If we knew nothing about the price in the past it would be pure guesswork to say which way the price would go?
We could still be wrong however, but at least we can establish why and how we made our opinion.
No chart or charting system can clearly determine what the future price will be with 100 per cent accuracy. By following the trend we can at least say what the current market direction is, without being able to clarify, purely on price, when the market will change direction.
Charts that eliminate time make it easier to see where the top and bottom of the market prices have been established. Therefore, if we are in an upward trend and approaching a market high that has been reached twice before, we can state with a reasonable amount of confidence that we are approaching a level that the market has tested twice before but not been able to break above. This would imply, on a technical analysis, that there is perceived resistance in the market to taking the price above the previous high.
However, a word of caution when using charts.
The best analogy I have ever heard for not relying 100 per cent on charts is as follows:
Would you sit behind the steering wheel of a vehicle and drive forward whilst the windscreen was blacked out and only have the rear view mirror to show you where you have been and only have that information to decide when you had to steer?
There is no system that can guarantee telling you what the future price will be. Analysis has to be taken with a pinch of salt but, any market professional should be able to perform analysis. If you can not analyse then you can not predict.
Lionel Pavey
Cash Management and Treasury Specialist
You might have missed the first two articles of this series and can find them here:
Treasury for non-treasurers: Data analysis and forecasting – seeing the future by looking at the past (Part I)
Treasury for non-treasurers: Data analysis and forecasting – Seeing the future by looking at the past (Part II)
Re-inventing treasury workflows: Smart Treasury
| 3-8-2017 | Nicolas Christiaen | Cashforce | Sponsored Content |
Example FX management workflow
Hedging your FX exposure risk made easy
A common problem is the lack of visibility on the existing (global/local) FX exposure risk.
In order to calculate the FX transaction risk, transactional data from the TMS & ERP systems need to be consolidated effectively. Typically, this happens to be a (very) painful exercise. With Cashforce, however, using our off-the-shelf connectors (for ERP & TMS) and our full drill-down capabilities, you have all FX exposures at your fingertips.
FX Exposure Management – Current positions & exposures
But there is more to it. Imagine that linked to your FX exposure, an automated proposal of the most relevant FX deal would be generated to properly hedge this risk. A grin from ear to ear you say?
FX Exposure Management – Suggested hedge
And what about forecasting FX exposures? It’s now all within reach!
Whether you choose to take on an intercompany loan, a plain vanilla FX forward or another more exotic derivative product, chosen deals could then be automatically passed on to your deal transaction platform, to effectively execute the deal without any hassle. After execution, deals will automatically flow back into the system. Consequently, a useful summary/overview will be generated to effectively manage all your financial instruments.
Workflow integrated cash forecast
Finally, integrated cash management
New financial instruments / deals will generate a set of related cash flows. Ideally, these are directly integrated in your cash flow forecasts. In Cashforce, this data is automatically integrated within the cash flow forecast module, and will be put into a dedicated cash flow category. Learn more one how to set up an effective cash forecast in this article or this webinar.
Cash flow forecast overview
The analysis possibilities are now limitless, thanks to the ability to drill down to the very transactional-level details. The real number crunchers strike gold here: the analysis features open doors to unlimited in-depth analysis and comparison of various scenarios (E.g. the simulated effects of various exchange rate movements).
Drill-down to the transaction level
Using our big data engine, the delivery of rich and highly flexible reporting is facilitated. It’s fair to say that the typical SQL server (which currently 95% of the TMS systems use) can’t hold a candle to this. Through an advanced ‘self-service’ interface, users can drill down completely into respective amortization tables, historical transactions and effortlessly create customized reports and dashboards. We’ll talk more about why we believe Big Data engines are crucial for any Treasury software in our next blog.
Integration with ERPs & payment platforms
Next to this, Cashforce will automatically generate the accounting entries (in the format of your ERP/accounting system) related to your deals. The appropriate payment files will be generated in a similar fashion.
So…
As might be clear after reading this article, we strongly believe that integrated data flows & a Big Data engine are the foundation of a new type of Treasury Management System that runs like clockwork and can serve effective treasury departments, but also renewed finance/controlling/FP&A departments.
You are curious to hear more about effective treasury management? We’ve recently recorded a webchat on how to set up an efficient cash flow forecast process.
Nicolas Christiaen
Managing Partner at Cashforce
Bitcoins or banks, who is taking care of the business?
| 2-8-2017 | Hans de Vries |
The recent Ransomware attacks, that had an enormous impact on numerous companies and governmental institutions at a global level, showed however a less favorable aspect of this new technology. Due to its lack of control on the specifics of account ownership, Bitcoin proved to be the ideal means to collect the ransom money the victims have to pay to free their systems. This piracy trend will in my view also seriously hamper the future development of these sort of bank independent transaction mechanisms. Even more threatening for the Bitcoin development are the recent crypto robbery cases in which millions of dollars’ worth balances were stolen from the accounts. These incidents show the vital role of the banks as TTP since most banks are obliged to deliver their services according to the rules and regulations of their national and super-national banks. As indicated before, this means that for opening accounts lots of formalities have to be endured (the KYC rules are in some countries stretched to the absolute max). At the same time., due to the international regulations the control on international transactions are very extensive and therefore at the same time very costly for the banks. Every violation of the international code book on transactions to banned countries can have severe financial consequences for the banks involved. An last but not least banks have to maintain an international network of correspondent banks to make sure that the international transactions reach their beneficiaries in a reasonable timeframe and at reasonable costs.
This whole system has of course been developed to gain maximum control on transaction flows locally and worldwide. However it also provides the trust needed to be able to deal with (inter) national trade flows crucial to our economic day to day operations. As long as there are no ways to secure your transactions and balances in a bitcoin like environment as most transaction banks are providing today, Bitcoins remain a very interesting technological experience but will in no way replace the role of banks as TTP shortly.
Hans de Vries
Treasury/Cash Management Consultant
More articles of this author:
Will the European banks strike back?
The Euro from a treasury perspective
New norms in banking: More than 30 new areas emerging. Pick your fights!