The US Election, the Dollar, and the Pound: what’s the forecast?

22-10-2020 | treasuryXL | XE |

Currently both election polls and the betting odds predict a clear lead for Joe Biden. However, it is important to cast your mind back to the night before the 2016 election when the same polls and odds had had Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite.

The United States presidential election is just over a few weeks away. For the US citizens, these last few weeks leading up to Election Day are going to be a whirlwind.

One of the areas that this election could have a major impact is on the value of the US Dollar. Earlier events this year such as the coronavirus pandemic have already led to fluctuations in the dollar’s value, and the election of a new president—and all that comes with it—could potentially lead to more.

What’s the forecast?

Currently both election polls and the betting odds predict a clear lead for Joe Biden. However, it is important to cast your mind back to the night before the 2016 election when the same polls and odds had had Hillary Clinton as the clear favourite.

The currency markets will have priced in a Biden victory to a certain extent, and therefore should Biden manage to displace the current president we could see a relatively muted reaction. If Donald Trump manages to hold onto the White House we could expect to see a
significant unwinding of positions that were based on an assumed Biden victory.

Traditional wisdom would dictate that a Biden victory could lead to huge spending and tax increases which could see the Dollar weaken further, however many now believe that a safe and stable pair of hands for the US recovery from the COVID pandemic may just be the thing the Dollar needs to rebound.

Looking at levels, the below Reuters FX Poll shows that markets are expecting the Pound to hold steady with a weakening US Dollar showing smart money targeting a level of 1.3000 at year ending climbing to 1.3400 by mid 2021.

How should businesses respond?

Nobody knows for certain where the markets could go next, and this uncertainty and volatility can have both a negative and positive impact on company bottom line, particularly where there is an exposure to USD.

With expert guidance from Xe, your business can confidently navigate the choppy waters of financial uncertainty.

In today’s volatile foreign exchange markets, we work harder to protect your business from exchange rate fluctuation. Our solutions are designed to take the uncertainty out of global
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Deciding when to make an international payment and at what rate can be critical. XE Business Solutions work with businesses to protect bottom-line from exchange rate fluctuations, while the currency experts and risk management specialists act as eyes and ears in the market to protect your profits from the world’s volatile currency markets.

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