interest rates Archives - Page 2 of 2 - treasuryXL

Fed Rates – Prospects of USD/INR Carry

| 09-09-2016 | Rahul Magan |

“Federal Reserve Rates and INR Reverse Carry”. As we understand that Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen turning Hawkish and asking for 25 Bps increase in September 2016. If we look carefully then Fed vice Chair Fisher also suggested the same and at the same time most prominent Bond Trader – Bill Gross also suggested increase of 25 Bps in September and 25 Bps in December. If this would happen then Overnight Rates of USD would move to 1% and this would be closer to Australia which is 1.5% in $ terms.

We should also appreciate the fact that both Central Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of India are moving towards Accommodative Monetary Policy. This way they would decrease the interest rates as to stimulate their economy. In that regards there are millions of thoughts but in my view Accommodative Monetary Policy is a big suicide as Japanese is a perfect example in that regards. They are doing QQE since last 2 decades but at the end need to depend upon Helicopter Money to stimulate their economy?? We all understand that Helicopter Money is nothing but Explicit Debt Monetization by BOJ for Govt of Japan.

There are multiple reports which suggest that Helicopter Money has already started in the form of Helicopter Drops by BOJ for Govt of Japan. This would surely create Reverse carry for USD/INR. We all understand that Indian Central Bank – Reserve Bank of India is now following Accommodative Monetary Policy henceforth there is a big pressure on RBI to cut present Repo Rates of 6.5% by at least 100 Bps to 5.5%. This would surely decrease the carry of INR for all Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) to invest funds in India.

One more fact which matters is the growing relevance of Indonesia where in 10 Y G Sec is trading at 7.7% and Singapore who would like to increase overnight rate to 1.35 %. If this would happen then all the funds which are scheduled to India would invest in United States who is offering 1% , Australia 1.5% , Indonesia 7.7% and upcoming Carry Currencies like Singapore offering 1.34%.

We also need to appreciate the fact that Carry Traders needs big return and specially at that time when Japanese , Swiss , Europe is in negative and also big banks like Royal Bank of Scotland , Bank of Ireland and Deutsche is asking big clients to pay negative collateral. Sitting today we are having “Quest for Yield Hunt”.

Reserve Bank of India should be well aware of the fact that if they would reduce Repo Rate by 100 Bps to 5.5% then probability of having INR moving towards Reverse Carry is 100%. This won’t appreciate INR rather would depreciate the same as less $ would park in India. We also understand that this would also increase the reliance of Indian Corporates on External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) and there would be very less funding covering Foreign Currency Non Resident Bonds (FCNR) in India which would have reciprocal impact on both USD/INR Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) and Overnight Index Swaps (OIS)

On the 5th of September 2016 Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said there is still a big for Qualitative Quantitative Easing (QQE) in Japanese Economy however this time Negative Interest Rates would play a very important role in that regards. Keeping all the aforesaid factors, Currency Traders are advised to take care of the same while making trading bets involving INR. Currency Traders are advised to have Options Structures to hedge their exposures.

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Rahul Magan – Chief Executive Officer Treasury Consulting LLP

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How long can interest rates stay so low?

| 08-09-2016 | Lionel Pavey |

How long can interest rates stay so low? When we talk about interest rates, it is helpful if we know the basic theory of how the level of an interest rate is determined.Classical thinking states that there are 5 components in interest rates (x).

5 Components in interest rates:

Risk free rate – a constant rate with no inflation
Inflation – the future expectation for inflation is added to the risk free rate.
These, together, are called the nominal interest rate
Default risk premium – the individual credit score of the borrow
Liquidity premium – compensation for offering a product that can be difficult to sell on
Maturity premium – in a normal positive yield curve, longer maturities have a higher interest rate

A review of various data providers show that the “indicative rate” for a bullet loan with a maturity of 5 years for a Dutch local authority would be 0.06% per annum. Let us look as this rate compared to the 5 components already mentioned.

C, D and E are all premia and would, therefore, have a positive value. Even if their collective value was zero, it would imply that “nominal” 5 year interest rate would be 0.06%. This nominal rate, as previously stated, comprises both the risk free rate and the expected inflation.This leads to the presumption that either risk free rates are zero or that future expectations of inflation are negative.

According to the ECB inflation (HICP) index in July 2016 prices rose by 0.2% as an annual percentage change. The target inflation rate for the ECB is below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Central banks set interest rates whilst keeping a watchful eye on headline and expected future inflation (it is a lagging indicator). Many studies claim that inflation indices overstate the true inflation figure, which would imply that the true inflation change would be zero or slightly negative.

If we were to enter a recession now there would be no room to use monetary policy as done previously as there is no space to lower rates any further. This would then only leave fiscal policy, but there is no unity within the Euro zone on fiscal policy.

It would appear that the present policy of quantitive easing (QE) has lead us to very low interest rates coupled with minimal inflation and no significant growth in GDP. Therefore, it is not improbable to envisage the current period of very low interest rates being maintained for quite some time in the future.

Furthermore, when QE stops, the ECB will eventually have to sell the bonds they are holding. Such an action could, conceivably, lead to a large rise in interest rates causing disruptions in the economic cycle. In the current environment, monetary policy can not revive the economy.

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist – Flex Treasurer

Managing interest rate and liquidity risk

| 06-09-2016 | Rob Söentken |

Funding is one of the key focus areas of a treasurer. There are numerous dimensions to funding:
1. Assessing amount and timing of cashflows
2. Arranging access to funding
3. Developing and implementing hedging policy
4. Optimizing funding cost and risk

Assessing amount and timing of cashflows

Assessing the amount and timing of cashflows is a continuous process. Because needs can change both in short and long term.

Arranging access to funding

Matching funding needs with supply from financial institutions is also a continuous process. The typical approach would be to match tenors, but immediate access to cash is critical for the survival of any entity. It could be considered to arrange longer term financing, even for short term (revolving) funding needs. The downside is that long term access is more expensive than short term access. This may be acceptable, but if the spread between borrowing and lending excess cash is too wide, it will become very unattractive to borrow for long tenors.

Developing and implementing hedging policy

To ensure the treasurer works within the boundaries of his mandate, he has to develop a hedging policy which must be documented (‘on paper’) and approved by his management. The document should describe the whole area of funding, to ensure both the creation and hedging of risks are described.

Optimizing funding cost and risk

The main focus drifts towards reducing funding cost. The funding market typically has a steep cost curve, meaning that rates are higher for longer tenors. This results from a steep ‘risk free’ curve and / or from a steep ‘credit spread’ curve. Which often brings entities to borrow for the cheapest tenor possible, being monthly, weekly or even overnight funding. Funding for very short tenors creates the considerable risk that can cause a company to run into a liquidity crisis, in case access to funding disappears. How to deal with this dilemma?

The best approach is to define a number of scenarios to assess the impact of combinations of financing and hedging on funding and risk. A base scenario could be to finance all funding needs using overnight loans. In case of liquidity problems, what would be the impact on the funding rates? Another scenario would be using quarterly funding or yearly rollover funding, potentially combined with:

money market futures
interest rate swaps
caps / floors
bond futures or even
credit derivatives

What are the incremental funding cost? What are incremental operational expenses of running various products? Can the entity deal with managing margin requirements? Is the entity aware of the basis risks involved when using credit derivatives, which are fairly complex products?

Rob Söentken

Ex-derivatives trader

The impact of negative interest rates

01-08-2016 | Lionel Pavey |

Articles in the press state that large commercial banks are considering charging their corporate clients negative interest rates on credit balances on their bank accounts. This presents us with certain problems – how will clients react?

Withdraw money – known as stuffing money under the mattress. This would present huge security issues on where the money could be safely kept, potential theft etc. Holding cash would give a return equal to zero, which would be greater than depositing it at a bank.

Hoarding – by withdrawing money from the banking system, banks themselves would have less money to lend and would force them to reduce their balance sheets. Conversely the idea would be that people would spend more money rather than save and, therefore, boost the economy. Would it work? We are seeing negative yields on high quality government bonds, for a variety of reasons, yet it appears that negative rates have not boosted spending or investment. The loosening of monetary policy does not appear to have removed market fears.

Disintermediation – banks fulfill a role as intermediar/middleman in the supply chain of finance. If money is withdrawn from the banking system it would be even harder for banks to provide finance to lenders. How could lenders then obtain the funding they require? Virtual marketplaces could be envisaged but there are so many security and safeguard issues that would need to be addressed before this could take place. Most companies can not borrow from capital markets – they rely on banks to provide their funding. Reductions in government bond yields to below zero do not lead to more funding being given to companies.

Worst case scenarios – companies will invest in technologies that are capital intensive leading, eventually, to a fall in the demand for labour. Pensioners who are dependent on interest income will be forced to reduce their consumption leading to a fall in demand. With safe yields being negative the search for yield could lead investors into riskier assets than they would normally consider.

A stamp on physical cash – this is an idea more than 100 years old proposed by Gesell to stop hoarding of cash. Bank notes would need to receive a stamp every month to be considered valid cash. These stamps would have to be purchased (a form of negative interest) and their purpose would be to erode the principle that money is a store of value and could be better used by being actively invested in the economy.

This all sounds very pessimistic, but there are potential gains from negative interest rates for companies.

It would encourage companies to pay their creditors more quickly and, in the process, receive discounts on their purchases outstanding if they pay early. Furthermore it would enable companies to truly examine their whole supply chain across all departments within a company and create a better understanding of the workflow processes concerning cash receipts and disbursements.

For those who like a more rogue approach, you could actually overpay your creditors and ask for a credit note. Now your creditor is funding your negative interest rate and if true economic theory principles are maintained – a fall in prices should follow negative interest rates – then, not only you would have handed over your negative interest rate exposure but you would also benefit from falling prices in the future on the outstanding credit notes with your creditors allowing you to make a relative saving on the future purchase price.

It is clear that steering interest rates will not sort out the economy – other steps outside of monetary policy will have to be taken to restore faith in the economy. But which steps will that be?

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist

Short note on interest rate derivatives

16-05-2016 | by Ad van der Plas |

They are often in the news, but what are they and how do they work? Interest rate derivatives are derivatives of the money- and capital markets and are especially designed to give assurance on the interest rate you will have to pay or receive in the future. Best known is the interest rate swap, a swap between the fixed and variable interest rate. All other interest derivatives are calculated on the interest rate swap. How does this swap work?

The interest rate swap is a two party agreement, usually in ISDA model, in which the fixed and variable interest amounts are swapped. The swap period, the fixed and variable (reference) interest rate are defined. The interest is calculated on the agreed notional principal amount and the interest amounts are payable on the payment dates. One party receives the fixed rate amounts and pays the variable rate, and the other party receives the variable rate amounts and pays the fixed rate.

With buying an interest rate swap, you can change the interest rate risk of an underlying loan from an uncertain variable rate to a certain fixed rate. That is….if during the swap period there are no changes in the loan itself. Since you aim to obtain certainty you should be aware of potential uncertainties during the swap period, such as:

A change of the reference rate in terms of content or effective representation (Libor).
A change in the interest rate calculation of the loan caused by regulatory changes in the financial markets (Solvency) or due to balance sheet effects of the lending company itself like a liquidity surcharge.
The lender changes the surcharge because he has revised the credit rate of your company.
The underlying loan is canceled or restructured.
The counterparty in the swap agreement requires an additional payment if the swap has a negative value.
Possible P&L and Balance sheet effects due to changes in the valuation of the swap because of changes in regulations, for example IFRS.
A different interpretation of the regulations when changing your auditor.

Please also note that the outstanding swap agreements will have effect on your total financing capacity. And finally, a warning: improper use of derivatives can be a big risk. Be sure to have a professional opinion when using derivates.

Ad van der Plas

Independent Treasury Consultant & Interim Manager

Negative Interest Rate Policy: No lasting effect on FX

14-04-2016 | by Simon Knappstein |

Negative interest rates are gripping Central Banks worldwide. The BoJ has resorted to this unexpected and unusual policy at the end of January. The ECB is expected to dig deeper into negative realms at their March meeting. The Swedish Riksbank has also gone negative and the Fed is contemplating the possibility for the eventuality economic growth will falter and inflation will fall. And of course the Swiss are already quite accustomed to negative interest rates. But in the FX markets the effects are minimal and short-lived.

So, are Central banks reaching the end of the effectiveness of their extremely loose monetary policies? If so, the big question is what next? Plain currency intervention? Hard to imagine currently, though the Swiss National Bank is said to be continuously intervening to prop up EUR/CHF.

The ECB has crossed the zero interest rate border in the summer of 2014 bringing its depo-rate to minus 0.10%. A move intended to stimulate credit growth by commercial banks, and as a means to lower the value of the Euro as to import more inflation. Although the latter was not explicitly mentioned everyone knows it was.

Since then the Swiss National Bank in December 2014, the Riksbank in February 2015 and the Bank of Japan in January 2016 have followed suit by introducing negative interest rates.

Currency impact

Figure 1 – Currency impact

The impact on the currency exchange rate is questionable and certainly not a straightforward main driver, as can be seen in figure 1.
When the ECB introduced a negative interest rate in the summer of 2014 it was accompanied by the start of the QE program and indeed EUR/USD moved considerably lower. The rate cut to -0.3% last December had no material impact on the exchange rate, even though it was followed by the first Fed rate hike in years.

The pressure on EUR/CHF could not be relieved by a rate cut to -0.25% in December 2014 so it was soon followed by the abandoning of the minimum exchange rate at 1.20 and a further cut to -0.75%. EUR/CHF stabilized but only continuous intervention by the SNB has brought the pair higher since then. The charts for EUR/SEK and USD/JPY speak for itself.

The conclusion is that there is very little to no evidence that negative interest rates lead to weaker currencies to support inflationary pressures.

Simon Knappstein

Owner of FX Prospect

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