That has largely transpired, seeing the DXY index on track to begin March little changed from its level at the end of January. With our central thesis largely holding, we retain our call for similarly muted directional moves in the coming months too. That said, an uptick in FX volatility looks likely, given a busier roster of catalysts in the month ahead, while several key risks to our base case continue to loom on the horizon.

Authors: 

Nick Rees, Head of Macro Research

Barry van der Laan, Senior FX Market Strategist

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