Tag Archive for: inflation

How are largest European companies managing their financial risks?

17-10-2019 | Stanley Myint | BNP Paribas

The second edition of the “Handbook of Corporate Financial Risk Management” has just been published by Risk books. The handbook is written with all risk management professionals, practitioners, instructors and students in mind, but its core readership are Treasurers at non-financial corporations. It contains 43 real life case studies covering various risk management areas. The book aims to cover both financial risk management and optimal capital structure and its contents.

Motivation for the book

This Handbook is based on real-life client discussions we had in the Risk Management Advisory team at BNP Paribas between 2005 and 2019. We noticed that corporate treasurers and chief financial officers (CFOs) often have similar questions on risk management and capital structure and that these questions are rarely addressed in the existing literature.

This situation can and should lead to a fruitful collaboration between companies and their banks. Companies often come with the best ideas, but do not have the resources to test them. Leading banks, on the other hand, have strong computational resources, a broader sector perspective, an extensive experience in internal risk management, and the ability to develop and deliver the solution. So, if they make an effort to understand a client’s problem in depth, they may be able to add considerable value.

The Handbook is the result of such an effort lasting 14 years and covering more than 700 largest European corporations from all industrial sectors. Its subject is corporate financial risk management, ie, the management of financial risks for non-financial corporations.

While there are many papers on this topic, they are generally written by academics and rarely by practitioners. If we contrast this to the subject of risk management for banks, on which many books have been written from the practitioners’ perspective, we notice a significant gap. Perhaps this is because financial risk is clearly a more central part of business among banks and asset managers than in non-financial corporations. However, that does not mean that financial risk is only important for banks and asset managers. Let us look at one example.

Consider a large European automotive company, with an operating margin of 10%. More than half of its sales are outside Europe, while its production is in EUR. This exposes the company to currency risk. Annual currency volatility is of the order of 15%, therefore, if the foreign revenues fall by 15% due to FX, this can almost wipe out the net profits. Clearly an important question for this company is, “How to manage the currency risk?”

The book blends real corporate situations across capital structure, optimal level of cash, optimal fixed-floating mix and pensions, which are particularly topical now that negative EUR yields create unpresented funding opportunities for corporates, but also tricky challenges on cost of cash and pensions management

One reason why corporate risk management has so far attracted relatively little attention in literature is that, even though the questions asked are often simple (eg, “Should I hedge the translation risk?” or “Does hedging transaction risk reduce the translation risk?”) the answers are rarely simple, and in many cases there is no generally accepted methodology on how to deal with these issues.

So where does the company treasurer go to find answers to these kinds of questions? General corporate finance books are usually very shy when it comes to discussing risk management. Two famous examples of such books devote only 20 – 30 pages to managing financial risk, out of almost 1,000 pages in total. Business schools generally do not devote much time to risk management. We hope that our book goes a long way towards filling this gap.

Website

We invite the reader to utilise the free companion website which accompanies this book, www.corporateriskmanagement.org There, you will find periodic updates on new topics not covered in The Handbook. Much like the book this website should prove a useful resource to corporate treasurers, CFOs and other practitioners as well the academic readers interested in corporate risk management.

About the authors

Stanley Myint is the Head of Risk Management Advisory at BNP Paribas and an Associate Fellow at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford. At BNP Paribas, he advises large multinational corporations on issues related to risk management and capital structure. His expertise is in quantitative and corporate finance, focusing on fixed income derivatives and optimal capital structure. Stanley has 25 years of experience in this field, including 14 years at BNP Paribas and previously at McKinsey & Company, Royal Bank of Scotland and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. He has a PhD in physics from Boston University, a BSc in physics from Belgrade University and speaks French, Spanish, Serbo-Croatian and Italian. At the Saïd Business School, Stanley teaches two courses with Dimitrios Tsomocos and Manos Venardos: “Financial Crises and Risk Management” and “Fixed Income and Derivatives”.

Fabrice Famery is Head of Global Markets corporate sales at BNP Paribas. His group provides corporate clients with hedging solutions across interest rate, foreign exchange, commodity and equity asset classes. Corporate risk management has been the focus of Fabrice’s professional path for the past 30 years. He spent the first seven years of his career in the treasury department of the energy company, ELF, before joining Paribas (now BNP Paribas) in 1996, where he occupied various positions including FX derivative marketer, Head of FX Advisory Group and Head of the Fixed Income Corporate Solutions Group. Fabrice has published articles in Finance Director Europe and Risk Magazine, and has a master’s degree in international affairs from Paris Dauphine University (France).

Content:

Introduction

1 Theory and Practice of Corporate Risk Management *

2 Theory and Practice of Optimal Capital Structure *

PART I: FUNDING AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE

3 Introduction to Funding and Capital Structure

4 How to Obtain a Credit Rating

5 Refinancing Risk and Optimal Debt Maturity*

6 Optimal Cash Position *

7 Optimal Leverage *

PART II: INTEREST RATE AND INFLATION RISKS

8 Introduction to Interest Rate and Inflation Risks

9 How to Develop an Interest Rate Risk Management Policy

10 How to Improve Your Fixed-Floating Mix and Duration

11 Interest Rates: The Most Efficient Hedging Product*

12 Do You Need Inflation-linked Debt

13 Prehedging Interest Rate Risk

14 Pension Fund Asset and Liability Management

PART III: CURRENCY RISK

15 Introduction to Currency Risk

16 How to Develop an FX Risk Management Policy

17 Translation or Transaction: Netting FX Risks *

18 Early Warning Signals

19 How to Hedge High Carry Currencies*

20 Currency Risk on Covenants

21 Optimal Currency Composition of Debt 1:

Protect Book Value

22 Optimal Currency Composition of Debt 2:

Protect Leverage*

23 Cyclicality of Currencies and Use of Options to Manage Credit Utilisation *

24 Managing the Depegging Risk *

25 Currency Risk in Luxury Goods *

PART IV: CREDIT RISK

26 Introduction to Credit Risk

27 Counterparty Risk Methodology

28 Counterparty Risk Protection

29 Optimal Deposit Composition

30 Prehedging Credit Risk

31 xVA Optimisation *

PART V: M&A-RELATED RISKS

32 Introduction to M&A-related Risks

33 Risk Management for M&A

34 Deal-contingent Hedging *

PART VI: COMMODITY RISK

35 Introduction to Commodity Risk

36 Managing Commodity-linked Revenues and Currency Risk

37 Managing Commodity-linked Costs and Currency Risk

38 Commodity Input and Resulting Currency Risk *

39 Offsetting Carbon Emissions*

PART VII: EQUITY RISK

40 Introduction to Equity Risk*

41 Hedging Dilution Risk *

42 Hedging Deferred Compensation*

43 Stake-building*

Bibliography

Index

Note: Chapters marked with * are new to the second edition

Rising bond yields – winners and losers

| 25-04-2018 | treasuryXL |

It is the talk of the town – US 10 year Government bond yields are rising and testing the perceived psychological level of 3 per cent. At the same time the whole yield curve is flattening – the spreads are diminishing. There are growing concerns about rising inflation, along with fears of trade wars and rising oil prices. When the threat of inflation occurs, there is a selloff in bonds and their yield goes higher. At the same time as the yield curve is flattening there is talk of the yield curve becoming inverted which, historically, is seen as the precursor to a recession. Conflicting signals – what does it all mean?

The rise in bond yields is a global trend – the same is being seen in Europe and the UK. In the last week data from the EU zone showed that the economy appears to be slowing down – or increasing at a slower rate than was previously seen. However the effects of Quantitative Easing programmes in the different countries has led to a great divergence in rates.

  • For the period from 1999 to 2008 the average 10 year bond yields were as follows:
  • Germany 3%
  • United States 8%
  • United Kingdom 8%

 

  • For the period from 2008 to 2018 the average 10 year bond yields were:
  • Germany 7%
  • United States 5%
  • United Kingdom 5%

However at present the yields are 0.6% for Germany; 3.0% for United States; and 1.5% for United Kingdom

It is clear that the due to this large divergence the effects of rising US bond yield will have a very large impact on bond yields in other countries and the exchange rates.

Recession?

Classical economic theory states that inverted yield curves are a sign of recessions and down turns in the economy. Yield curves invert when the short term rates exceed the long term rates. However an inverted yield curve is not the cause of a recession. As the Fed has been pursuing a policy of gradual interest rate rises, it is not unrealistic to expect that to lead to a tightening over the whole curve. As investors expect short term yields to rise – leading to an eventual rise in long term rates – their area of focus changes and they position themselves by selling long dated bonds, causing a rise in long dated yields.

At the same time market analysts are saying that the global economy has reached a new departure point – there has been a significant shift in interest rate perceptions and that whilst rates can and will rise, they will not revert to the mean. However, as investors chase yield a major rise in US bond yields will impact on other bond markets. When the US bonds are yielding 400% more than their Eurozone counterparts, there are serious worries that investors will flock to the US market, unless the ECB announces the end of QE, which would lead to rising Euro yields.

There is also a possible knock on effect to the equity markets. Rising bond yields suddenly make equities less attractive. It could be that volatility is about to return and that Treasurers will need to look at their hedging policies.

State of the nation – the future looks bright

| 06-04-2018 | treasuryXL |

Last week, the Centraal  Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) released their year end data for 2017 regarding the Dutch economy. The recovery is strong – for the first time since 2008 the Netherlands complies with 2 of the important Euro criteria at the same time; the government debt is below 60% of GDP and the annual budget deficit must not exceed 3% of GDP. Furthermore, Dutch GDP grew at an annual rate by 3.2% in 2017 – this is higher than in 2016 when the growth was 2.2%. This is the strongest growth since 2007. We take a look at the data and the contributing factors.

Debt

At the end of Q4 2017, government debt was reported as EUR 416 bn. This is 56.7% of GDP, compared to 61.8% in 2016. There was a reduction of EUR 18 bn in the total debt – the largest annual fall recorded. As recently as 2014, this ratio stood at 68.0%

Budget surplus

At the end of Q4 2017, the government had a budget surplus of EUR 8 bn – a surplus of 1.1% of GDP. In 2009, this was a deficit of 5.4% of GDP. Expenditure increased by EUR 7 bn in 2017, but this was offset by an increase in revenue of EUR 12 bn. Tax revenues increased by EUR 15 bn. There was additional income of EUR 8 bn from the sale of state shareholdings in ASR and ABNAmro among others.

Inflation

There was a rise in consumer prices – CPI showed an annual rise of 1.4% in 2017. This compares with a rise of 0.3% in 2016.

Labour

Wages in 2017 increased by 1.7% and unemployment fell in 2017 – at the end of 2017 the rate was 4.1%. Shortages of available labour are being observed in the market – employers have stated that they are finding it increasingly hard to find appropriate employees. The latest reports suggest that there are 1 million vacancies, but that employers are having difficulty finding qualified people. Most of this growth appears to be coming from the small and medium sized enterprises (MKB) – large organisations are still in a round of cost-cutting and down-sizing.

The report of the Netherlands looks very rosy, but international events could impact on the health of the economy. There are threats of trade wars; Brexit will impact on trade within 1 year; the EU parliament is asking for more money in the next budget cycle; the composition of the new Italian government could cause unrest within the rest of the EU.

The future does look bright, but caution is advised on the road ahead.

How long can interest rates stay so low?

| 08-09-2016 | Lionel Pavey |

rating

How long can interest rates stay so low? When we talk about interest rates, it is helpful if we know the basic theory of how the level of an interest rate is determined.Classical thinking states that there are 5 components in interest rates (x).

 

5 Components in interest rates:

  • Risk free rate – a constant rate with no inflation
  • Inflation – the future expectation for inflation is added to the risk free rate.
    These, together, are called the nominal interest rate
  • Default risk premium – the individual credit score of the borrow
  • Liquidity premium – compensation for offering a product that can be difficult to sell on
  • Maturity premium – in a normal positive yield curve, longer maturities have a higher interest rate

A review of various data providers show that the “indicative rate” for a bullet loan with a maturity of 5 years for a Dutch local authority would be 0.06% per annum. Let us look as this rate compared to the 5 components already mentioned.

C, D and E are all premia and would, therefore, have a positive value. Even if their collective value was zero, it would imply that “nominal” 5 year interest rate would be 0.06%. This nominal rate, as previously stated, comprises both the risk free rate and the expected inflation.This leads to the presumption that either risk free rates are zero or that future expectations of inflation are negative.

According to the ECB inflation (HICP) index in July 2016 prices rose by 0.2% as an annual percentage change. The target inflation rate for the ECB is below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Central banks set interest rates whilst keeping a watchful eye on headline and expected future inflation (it is a lagging indicator). Many studies claim that inflation indices overstate the true inflation figure, which would imply that the true inflation change would be zero or slightly negative.

If we were to enter a recession now there would be no room to use monetary policy as done previously as there is no space to lower rates any further. This would then only leave fiscal policy, but there is no unity within the Euro zone on fiscal policy.

It would appear that the present policy of quantitive easing (QE) has lead us to very low interest rates coupled with minimal inflation and no significant growth in GDP. Therefore, it is not improbable to envisage the current period of very low interest rates being maintained for quite some time in the future.

Furthermore, when QE stops, the ECB will eventually have to sell the bonds they are holding. Such an action could, conceivably, lead to a large rise in interest rates causing disruptions in the economic cycle. In the current environment, monetary policy can not revive the economy.

Lionel Pavey

 

Lionel Pavey

Cash Management and Treasury Specialist – Flex Treasurer