Discussion LinkedIn poll | The Dollar-Euro exchange rate reached parity for the first time in two decades

25-08-2022 | treasuryXL | LinkedIn |

We analyze the results of the most recent treasuryXL poll on today’s corporate treasury concerns in this third edition of the newsletter. We’ll show you how treasurers voted to express their opinions on a current issue, and a few treasury experts will explain their positions.

We have invited Patrick Kunz, Harry Mills and Paul Stheeman to share their views on the current topic.

Is the trend in the dollar-euro exchange rate something to worry about for treasurers?

We talked about whether treasurers should be concerned about the present trend in the Dollar-Euro exchange rate in last month’s poll. 38 people participated in the poll, and the results are shown in the image below. Thank you to everyone who voted.

 

What do treasurers think?

The results indicate quite clearly that the Corporate Treasurer is, of course, very much aware of the current trend. The exchange rate remains volatile, as the euro has even currently fallen to a new two-decade low. A number of treasuryXL experts have expressed their views regarding the current trend and how it may or may not affect treasury activities.

Views of treasuryXL experts

Patrick Kunz

Patrick voted for the option to keep a close eye on the current trend

“The main reason for keeping an eye on it is so a treasurer can estimate what the impact of a falling Euro or stronger USD will be on the company’s financials.”

Keeping an eye on the Euro-Dollar rate is not necessarily to know what the current rate is. The main reason for keeping an eye on it is so a treasurer can estimate what the impact of a falling Euro or stronger USD will be on the company’s financials. Both in the field of FX hedging (not all companies hedge 100% of their exposure but have a rolling hedging policy) and higher hedge costs (forward points have increased due to larger interest rate differences with the US).

But also the sensitivity of the exchange rate on profits and sales is important. For example, if you sell in USD, you suddenly earn more in EUR and you probably sell more. On the other hand, if you buy in USD, it becomes more expensive while your EUR price is fixed. Is it perhaps cheaper to buy elsewhere? What is the impact on the cost price and total demand and turnover of the product? Do the prices need to be adjusted? All questions that the treasurer does not have to answer but that he can signal to his colleagues (CFO, Procurement, Sales etc.).

 

Harry Mills

Harry voted for the option to keep a close eye on the current trend

 

“Currency risk aside, treasurers have other headaches to contend with when currencies exhibit high volatility and/or experience a large directional shift (trend) in value.”

The euro’s descent from above $1.20 in mid-2021 to below parity with the dollar has been well covered in the financial media, and the impact on European importers is obvious: higher import costs, squeezed margins, and pressure on business performance. Currency risk aside, treasurers have other headaches to contend with when currencies exhibit high volatility and/or experience a large directional shift (trend) in value. Let me name a small sample of potential areas for attention

Hedge Maintenance and Funding Requirements

Managing the currency hedging position, in line with policy, requires maintenance – trading in derivatives such as forward contracts and options, which presents its own challenges when exchange rates change over time. Additionally, FX swaps are used to balance cash positions and manage liquidity: it’s typical for swaps to be deployed to rollover the settlement on a hedging trade, or to bring forward a delivery. A lower EUR/USD spot rate compared to the hedged rate could incur a funding requirement if the position is out of the money when rolling-over or extending (i.e., for a euro-buyer / dollar-seller).

Treasurers as internal Consultants

Treasurers will need to work with the risk team and other stakeholders to manage internal expectations and provide guidance into the business. Preparing commentary, analysis, and forecasts using proprietary research and that of appropriate external sources, such as banking and consulting partners, is a critical area in which treasurers can demonstrate additional value. Business leaders will be aware of the EUR/USD parity story from headlines, but taking advice and information from trusted internal resources could be invaluable.

Collateral and Margin Calls

For European importers, selling the euro to buy the dollar, a move below parity will likely mean their hedging position is in the money, but of course, future hedging trades may well be at less favourable rates. For those firms selling the dollar to buy the euro however, they may find that they are losing headroom on their trading lines and could face margin calls as the sustained fall in the euro erodes their position value. Regular stress-testing of position valuations should give ample forewarning of any calls for additional collateral, and frequent communication with liquidity providers should provide the opportunity to discuss trading terms and spreads, which are liable to be adjusted in times of high volatility.

Currency Options

EUR/USD volatility has risen to multiyear highs, meaning that option premiums are higher. Treasurers will need to manage the impact of higher hedging costs and ensure an appropriate balance of cost-efficiency and hedge effectiveness is achieved. Another way EUR/USD breaking below parity could be a concern for treasurers is regarding option payoffs, and especially for path-dependent trades such as knock in or knock out options. Exotic options and multi-leg “structured” products can return a vastly different outcome in the event of a large shift in the underlying spot rate. Care should be paid to model various scenarios for the impact on the hedging and liquidity position, and to offer guidance on the appropriateness of such transactions.

Paul Stheeman

Paul voted for the option that there is no need to be concerned

“The recent movements in the EUR/USD may seem extreme at first glance, but historically they have in no way gone outside of trends or ranges we have seen before.”

I think treasurers should not be over-worried about the current movement in EUR/USD exchange rate. Let me explain to you why.

Every company should have a sound FX policy. This policy should take into account the possibility of increased market volatility. Some companies believe that their balance sheet is strong enough to deal with fluctuations in exchange rates and therefore will not hedge much, if at all. Others will want to manage their risk by using futures contracts or options. These instruments allow CFOs and Treasurers to hedge at a comfortable level. The only ones who may have sleepless nights are those who have not implemented a coherent hedging policy. But under normal circumstances, any Treasurer will ensure that such a policy is in place and implemented.

Moreover, European importers are concerned about the strength of the USD and the weakness of the EUR. But the current volatility in the market is by no means extreme. Over the past seven years, we have seen prices move between 1.25 and 1.00. In the seven-year period between 2008 and 2015, we saw rates between almost 1.60 and 1.10 . In that period, the euro has fallen twice as much as it has in the past seven years. Or look at the volatility over a shorter period, during the financial crisis between 2008 and 2010, when we saw rates move dramatically in both directions over much shorter periods. The recent movements in the EUR/USD may seem extreme at first glance, but historically they have in no way gone outside of trends or ranges we have seen before.

Segregation of Duties and Responsibilities

| 28-5-2018 | By Paul Stheeman |

Cash Pooling

 

Compliance is one of the most important factors when establishing and running a Treasury function nowadays. Increased regulatory requirements paired with concerns about fraud and cybercrime mean that CFOs want to ensure that functions and processes are aligned with the Board’s expectations and run according to recognised best practices.

So, what would an ideal departmental structure for Treasury look like? The chart below illustrates the generally accepted best way of setting up a Treasury function.

Group Treasurer.   The Group Treasurer maintains overall responsibility for the function and reports directly up to the CFO. This person will typically not be involved in the day-to-day Treasury activities.

Front Office. Front Office staff often have the not so glamourous title of dealer. These are the people who will execute transactions for the company. These will be FX transactions, but also investing or borrowing funds or executing commodity hedges.

Middle Office. People in the Middle Office are often called Treasury Controllers. Their role is to control the activities of the Front Office. They will check and confirm incoming confirmations, prepare and send outgoing ones and ensure that all transactions are done within prescribed limits and policies.

Back Office. Personnel working here are responsible for the settlement of transactions when due. They will make payments and ensure that expected incoming payments are correctly credited.

This is a rather simplified description and for several reasons will seldom reflect the actual setup at a corporate. Firstly, the activities of a Treasury function are nowadays considerably broader than just completing financial transactions, so that Treasury staff will have other responsibilities such as corporate financing or insurance. In such cases though the requirement for segregating duties is not so compelling.

A further issue is that many smaller or medium-sized companies simply do not need, nor do they have the number of staff required. Back-ups will be needed for the Front, Middle and Back Offices leading to a minimum total of 6 plus the Group Treasurer. Only large organisations with active Treasury functions can afford such a number. To solve that problem, the tasks of Middle and Back Office could be performed by the same persons. It is only the Front Office activities that really do need to be segregated.

Looking back after 10 years of SEPA

| 26-02-2018 | Paul Stheeman |

Cash Pooling

 

Last month we saw the anniversary of several historical moments. 1000 years ago, in January 1018 the Peace of Bautzen ended the German-Polish War. More recently, in January 1998, American President Bill Clinton surprised the world by denying in a press conference that he had sexual relations with Monica Lewinsky. More importantly for Treasurers and the citizens of Europe January 2018 marks the tenth anniversary of the establishment of SEPA, the Single European Payments Area.

 

In Europe we have become used to SEPA. Initially we all groaned at the idea of having 22-digit long bank accounts numbers called the IBAN, nicknamed as “IBAN the Terrible”. But the introduction of SEPA in January 2008 has brought a number of benefits to over 520 million citizens in Europe. Not only are the 19 Eurozone countries members of SEPA. All other EU countries participate as well as countries such as Norway or Switzerland.

The main benefit is that we now have one payment zone. Previously, making a transfer from Italy to the Netherlands was a cross-border payment. This meant that a whole week could pass between the time when the payer initiated the transfer in Italy and the recipient actually received the funds on his Dutch bank account. In addition, banks in both countries would charge considerable fees for making the transfer. Payment is now done within 24 hours and banks should not charge more than for a domestic payment.

SEPA not only covers transfers. Direct debits and debit cards also are handled in a similar manner through SEPA. And a new instant payment scheme is currently being rolled out, allowing payments to be completed within seconds on a 24/7/365 basis.

SEPA is also strongly regulated. The European Commission established the legal foundation through the Payment Services Directive or PSD. Payment products are overseen as are technical standards.

In the last ten years SEPA has established itself as being the platform for payments in Europe. Due to its wide acceptance and success in its first decade it is likely to accompany us for many years ahead as new payment methods are developed in the digitalised world.

 

Paul Stheeman

Owner of STS – Stheeman Treasury Solutions GmbH

 

Debt Compliance – can you make the grade?

| 01-12-2017 | Paul Stheeman |

Debt ComplianceWe welcome a new expert – Paul Stheeman, who immediately brings us an interesting topic that has not been covered in much detail up to now. It goes to show that there are many facets in the role of treasurer and we can constantly find new subjects that have not been approached. Thank you, Paul.

Depending on the financing method chosen, your company is likely to have debt or some kind of financial obligations to third parties. This can be in the form of loans, bilateral or syndicated, or in the form of a bond issue. In each case, the underlying agreement has to be well-documented and could be very extensive with several hundred pages of legal language which, for a non-lawyer, may be very difficult to understand.

In that documentation there will be clauses stating what the debtor is allowed and not allowed to do. Another important part of the agreement will be around financial covenants. These are usually ratios which the debtor has to regularly fulfil. It is commonly the responsibility of the Treasurer to ensure that the terms of the agreements are adhered to and to report the status of the covenants to the lenders and investors. To be able to do this the Treasurer will have to work closely with the company’s lawyers, the accountants and the Controller. He furthermore has to “educate” key internal stakeholders in the requirements, so that they also are aware of any hurdles which may prohibit them in carrying out their day-to-day business. This whole process is commonly known as debt compliance.

A loan agreement will typically have between one and five financial covenants which need to be tested and reported to the lenders on a quarterly or semi-annual basis. One of many examples of financial covenants is a coverage covenant, which requires the debtor to maintain a minimum level of earnings or cash flow relative to certain expenses, e.g. interest or debt service. Typically, such numbers are prepared in the accounting department, but the Treasurer will have to ensure that these figures are prepared timely and are within the thresholds allowed in the financing agreements. If these criteria are not met, then the debtor will be in breach of the covenant(s) and technically will be in default.

Default can also arise when so-called prohibited transactions are entered into or “basket” limits are overdrawn. In many agreements the debtor is not allowed to enter into any other financial obligation. This may in practice prohibit the debtor in carrying out his normal course of business. For example, he may be required to issue a performance guarantee. This would initially not be allowed under the agreement. Lenders therefore establish baskets with a threshold amount up to which the debtor may have a bank issue a performance guarantee. Again here, it will be the Treasurer’s responsibility to ensure that all such transactions fall within allowed business or baskets.

Being in default due to a breach of a covenant or a basket could mean that the outstanding debt becomes immediately repayable in full. This is usually neither in the interest of the debtor or the lender, so that the lender can apply for a waiver. It will depend on the seriousness of the breach, but these waivers are often agreed to by the lenders. However, there will be a fee which the lender will have to pay for the waiver and this can be quite substantial.

To summarize, debt compliance is a very important part of a Treasurer’s role as the consequences of non-compliance can at best weaken the company’s position towards its lenders and at worst be disastrous as lenders call on outstanding debt to be repaid immediately.

 

Paul Stheeman

Owner of STS – Stheeman Treasury Solutions GmbH